Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, November 14, 2024
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77 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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I read somewhere yesterday that the alternatives to Gaetz presented to Trump were even more appalling than Gaetz himself.
@CSK: More appalling than a member of Congress being investigated by his peers for drug-fueled parties with minors, who has a close friend serving 11 years in prison for sex trafficking? Huh.
My shocked face –> 😐
Gaetz resigned to prevent the House Ethics Committee report from being released. He’ll have to go through a background check/investigation for the Senate confirmation process, as will any others.
Most of his House colleagues are glad to see him gone.
I can hardly wait for the next announcement. Will it be MTG for Secretary of Education or Lauren Boebert for Secretary of HHS? Or perhaps Eric Adams for Secretary of Transportation?
@Jen:
The article didn’t give any indication who these people are, but they must be truly horrifying if Gaetz was the best of the bunch.
@SC_Birdflyte:
Trump is said to favor Todd Blanche, his lawyer in the hush money case, for deputy atty. general.
@CSK:
I’m guessing one of the hardcore neo nazis, like leaders of the proud infants, even those in prison, or Nick Fuentes, or some other human shaped trash like that.
Or maybe Kanye West.
Doris Kearns Goodwin is still around. This Trump cabinet has the potential to eclipse her Team of Rivals book. This contemporary story will astound, shock, and nauseate. A sure winner. Start writing, Doris.
@Slugger:
Disagree. Only Stephen King can do justice to this cabinet.
This is what happens when you alienate all the good, decent people, you’re left with the residue of the party who can’t function in normal society.
That said, I’m done protesting, arguing, and otherwise attempting to buffer the impact.
Vote for MAGA, get MAGA.
The Onion has purchased Infowars at auction.
Via the NYT, and not The Onion.
The Onion bought Alex Jones’s Infowars (the proceeds go to the Sandy Hook families): https://theonion.com/heres-why-i-decided-to-buy-infowars/
According to NBC, The Onion has won the bankruptcy auction for Alex Jones’s Infowars. They’ll rebuild it into a humor site.
Maybe they’ll call it OnionWars.
Since Biden has immunity, if I were in his position, I would immediately declassify all materials in the hands of Jack Smith and Judge Chutkan, have my staff copy them, and deliver the copies to a bank vault in Delaware. These are too important to be let go.
@Not the IT Dept.:
The Cabinet of Dr Cagliari?
@Jen:
You win the breaking news competition. 😀
@CSK:
Apparently they want to make a parody of what Jones’ site was. So they could go with MisinfoWars, with host Axel Hones. The problem is that a parody of misinformation can come across as misinformation. But at least they should be safe from being sued successfully.
On another thread we briefly discussed whether Lindsay Graham could ever, even for a day, grow a spine.
I take it as a given that Graham is closeted and terrified – has been terrified for his entire life – of being outed. He knows Trump won’t hesitate to call him queer.
In a related matter, some people suggest that Putin could not blackmail Trump because what could possibly embarrass Trump? How about video of his fat ass humping away on a 14 year-old? I’m not suggesting that happened, just correcting the naive idea that nothing could be used to blackmail Trump. As well as the naive idea that Lindsay Graham is a vertebrate.
@CSK: Question is, appalling to whom? Appears Trump would be appalled by any list not full of criminals, rapists, pedophiles, and Putin puppets.
@DK:
Beats me. Maybe Diddy?
Onion buys Info Wars!
NPR
Can we believe it?
Melania will apparently be skipping the move to the White House this time around.
In lighter news, this morning right after waking up, I needed to relieve myself and my urine was this shocking odd shade of electric orangish yellow.
It took me several minutes to realize that I made curry last night for dinner. Apparently, I went a bit heavy on the turmeric. Apparently, turmeric doesn’t metabolize very well.
@Mister Bluster:
Genius move by The Onion, if true.
Seen elsewhere: “I’m absolutely shocked that Hulk Hogan was passed over for AG.”
@Jen:
Yeah, apparently she’s going to live at Trump Tower to babysit Barron while he attends NYU. I’d say this was going waaaay overboard with the helicopter parenting, but she’s probably using the kid as an excuse to stay as far apart as she can from Donald.
@CSK:…Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner!
Yes@Jen: gets the scoop! In my haste to post the news I scanned the thread too quickly.
Edit: Now I see that I missed 3 posts in a row on this matter. This blindness should be worth a position in the Trump administration. I’ll carry a lamp in the daylight and look for an honest man.
Wait. What? Someone did that already. Did he find one?
@Michael Reynolds: I heard some Republican suggesting on NPR this morning that Hegseth should be given a chance at DoD on the strength of the fact that he’s a veteran. Really, that sole credential is his basis?
@Michael Reynolds:
I think there are three distinct categories about what can embarrass the felon and how effective it is:
1) What can embarras him? plenty. He’s a weak narcissist with an inferiority complex. How many times have you heard in the news that he said “this makes me look weak”? Or bad? Or it makes the country look like that? All that embarrasses him. We’ve even seen him embarrassed plenty of times, but he looks sullen when that happens (and any flushing can’t make it past his makeup). See when he half walked back his “fine people on both sides” idiocy. That’s the felon deeply embarrassed.
2) What embarrasses him that can hurt him politically? Again, plenty. Just not as much as you’d think. The bit about injecting bleach, the piles of COVID corpses, beyond embarrassing him, also cost him the 2020 election. it’s a sad commentary on your country that this did not end his political life, though.
3) What embarrasses him that can hurt him with his base. Nothing. Or, more precisely, nothing we’ve seen yet. The closest was when he was booed a couple of times at his rallies for suggesting taking the COVID shot.
BTW, the reason he never openly conceded is that a concession would make him look weak. Not because he in any way shape or form really believes he won. Look for him to downplay his small margin int he popular vote if it gets mentioned in the media.
I’ve seed that Alina Habba is being floated as Press Secretary. Nor nearly as consequential or potentially significant as Secretary for Defense, Director of National Intelligence, or Attorney General, but significant.
The trolling trend continues, but I see this morning she’s turning it down. If she took the job, she’d actually get paid unlike many Trump hirelings.
Jill Stein for SecState? Forget Habba, Alex Jones for Press Secretary! He’s tanned, rested, and ready – and looking for a new gig. Nick Fuentes for DHS! Why tf not? RFK, Jr. for HHS!
Who needs subject matter expertise, credentials, professional experience, integrity, or the ability to pass a simple security background check?
@SC_Birdflyte:
C’mon now, SC; you know all Black GOP cabinet prospects go to HUD. \s
@CSK:
The idea is Gaetz is incompetent, can’t do much damage. Whereas someone like Ken Paxton would have the knowledge and ability to be really awful. Ken White/Popehat argument.
“Popehat“
@charontwo:
Some more from the link:
Small bit of good news. Monday is a holiday, so I may just find time to finish writing a story. This means I need to cook something that takes little time. By this I mean a quick prep. The actual cooking time doesn’t matter if I can just let the stuff to cook unattended.
I’m thinking therefore chicken chilaquiles with caramelized onions. Beans with soy chorizo and sauteed onions on the side. I’m sure to be half dissatisfied all next week about this…
The upside of re-watching an old show, is that I can delay an installment or two as needed, since I’m not dying to know what happens next.
If you are seeking to understand the realignment that comes with this last election.
This opinion by Henry Olsen will help “Donald Trump’s dominant 2024 election win was only a shock to the smug elites”
The party flip is well underway. Look for Mitt Romney and such to swing Democrat and more of the non-white working class to move toward Trump/New Republican in 2026.
https://nypost.com/2024/11/06/opinion/the-2024-election-results-only-came-as-a-shock-to-clueless-elites-and-the-mainstream-media/
@charontwo: Yeah, this is a notion that has been occupying my thought process since late yesterday.
Trump nominates Gaetz, Gaetz steps down from Congress to avoid a damaging ethics report release. He then fails to secure the nomination because he’s a buffoon. Trump has rewarded Gaetz by nominating him–checks off the list. Trump then turns around and nominates Paxton or someone like him, who the Senate actually will confirm.
Well, all I can say it that Trump wants to rub non-MAGA noses in the ashes of America as he destroys it for his vanity and personal wealth.
On the personal front:
1. Had my hair cut yesterday. The stylist said that now that Trump was elected perhaps she could buy a house. I kept my mouth shut, as I was in shock from the appointments of Gaetz and Gabbard, and what pretty sure she wouldn’t know who they were. But I did commiserate that we wouldn’t likely see the years of post-2008 interest rates again in our lifetime (unless we have another recession). She readily admitted that she didn’t understand economics, but something was terribly wrong when home mortgage rates were 7.5%.
2. Someone liked some of my 2017 FB posts made after Trump was elected and American Carnage began to unfold. It was someone with a fake profile (no friends, lots of pretty boy pictures, etc.) I’m used to getting friend requests from fake profiles, but why would someone only like these particular comments made over 7 years ago? It wasn’t a friend request.
@JohnSF:
A Confederacy Of Dunces.
“If Donald Trump says ‘jump three feet high and scratch your head. We all jump three feet high and
scratch our heads.” — Rep. Troy Nehls
Talk about groveling.
I watched the documentary The Truth Versus Alex Jones on MAX a while back. Deep interviews with the family of those slaughtered children. Lots of background about Sandy Hook and aftermath. Alex Jones is a monster, his own words told the story. When you see him in the courtroom, he lies so transparently and outrageously you want to smack that jowly stubbly smirk off his florid face.
Anyway, I saw he was pissed as hell about the Onion sale. I hope he strokes out.
It will be harder for Trump to cause the kind of chaos he wants domestically. He’s not going to deport a million aliens because that is a logistical, legal, diplomatic and economic nightmare. They’ll make a show of it, it will collapse in disorder, and Trump will declare victory because he ejected two dozen gangbangers. The immigrants will pause to consider, but then illegals will flow again because the rewards are simply too great, and, crucially, because we need them. Literally everyone who has looked seriously at the issue knows the answer is to impose heavy sanctions on US companies who hire undocumented people. And that’s not happening because there is simply too much profit in having vast numbers of legally precarious workers.
They will certainly make life harder for trans folk. Federal facilities will try to enforce restrictions on trans people, and I expect an assault on trans ID’s and Passports, with the self-defeating result of making it harder for trans people to GTFO of Arkansas, or the USA. Trans folk are the new Jews.
Don’t get me wrong, Gaetz will manage to turn the DoJ into a laughingstock. But it’s in the foreign policy area that Trump will do serious, lasting, very likely deadly damage. No foreign intel operation will share info with Tulsi Gabbard unless it’s with the goal of feeding disinformation to the Russians. We will become significantly more vulnerable to terrorist attack, both domestically and internationally.
@JKB:
Dude, calm down. Trump got 50.1% of the vote. Kamala got 48.1%. That’s a 2% difference.
2% ain’t a revolution. And if you think that 2% is somehow rock solid, um, no it’s not. Trump’s big hope, and yours, is that he can end elections and pull off a coup before MAGA is vomited up by a disappointed population.
My old high school buddy, who voted for Trump because reasons, still thought this was funny enough to pass on:
“We are 3 seconds away from the My Pillow Guy becoming Surgeon General”
I read Trump’s appointees as “we want to be loudly ineffectual”.
Imagine a clownshoe stamping on your face for four years.
@JKB: This is nonsense. This is more grievance politics and erroneous assertions of what the “American People” want.
No, this was not a dominant victory. Winning 50.2% of the vote is not dominant.
Blaming everyone else for their lives is not the definition of responsibility.
Trump does not share anyone’s values unless those values are self-centered and amoral.
No one is telling anyone their lives are inferior except those yelling DEI at people they hate.
And who is Henry Olsen? Oh, yes:
One of those sneering upper class people who depend on wealthy benefactors to keep him living the style he thinks he deserves and who looks down on the rest of us.
@CSK:
Freedom is Slavery, don’t you know.
I think what happened on November 5th, 2024 (a date that will live in infamy) was akin to the definition Ambrose Bierce gives for Manicheism in The Devil’s Dictionary:
MANICHEISM -n. The ancient Persian doctrine of an incessant warfare between Good and Evil. When Good gave up the fight the Persians joined the victorious Opposition.
@JKB:
I know this is the title of the piece from the post, but again, I just don’t see how (as we get more data) we can consider it a “dominant win.” Unless of course, the argument is based on the fact that 2016 wasn’t a “dominant win” and 2020 was an outright loss for the Donald.
I thought it worth mentioning that last night I couldn’t sleep, and was watching YouTube instead. Up popped an ad with Art Laffer, with the hook, “Have you ever heard of a country that taxed itself into prosperity?”
I clicked “Skip” as fast as I could, but still.
Art Laffer.
Still pitching his garbage. I don’t even know what he was selling. Maybe a book? A website? A “training course”?
Crazy.
@Jay L Gischer: Have you ever heard of a country that collected no taxes being prosperous?
I hate nonsense like this. It contributes nothing.
@Michael Reynolds: Whatever Trump has on Graham, it has to be something considerably worse than just being a closeted homosexual. I assume it is a given that Lindsey is gay. IMO he would still easily win in SC. I’ve said this as a joke, but I’m starting to think it’s true, it involves a goat and latex.
@JKB: The guy who
* Had his employees mark rental applications from minorities “C”
* Identified neo-Nazi racists in Charlottesville saying “there are good people on both sides
* Complains that US immigration policy welcomes people from “shit hole countries” and that these people are poisoning our nation and compares them to vermin
(I could go on but I won’t)
has no understanding of or belief in “traditional norms and human liberty and diversity.”
For Henry Olson (who ever he is) to offer DJT as “[the] usher [of] a fifth Great Realignment, one that will take the new Republican plurality among voters — the first since 1932! — and make it a new American majority” is quackery.
That JKB cites this quack establishes him or her as just another internet random spouting nonsense. Be Best, JKB! Your own words shame you.
If Gaetz goes through the confirmation process I think every question from Democrats should include the allegations that he had sex with underage girls and he used illegal drugs. It has to be hammered home. I went to college with a few guys like Gaetz, they usually flunked out or in some cases were kicked out.
@Jen: A Senate that would confirm Paxton…
[Checks notes]
…meh, never mind. A Senate that can confirm Garland can easily make a similar mistake.
[shrug emoji]
@Kathy:
My strategy is to do a big batch of something like chili, or curry, or even sloppy joes on one day and then bask in the results in the resulting easy meals down the road.
Make some rice or whatever side as needed and heat up the main in a pan or microwave that you’ve already done.
Put 90% of the effort into one big batch of something you like, and then just coast on that for the next few days of easy meal prep. Plus it makes decision-making analysis paralysis out of the picture – I have a big batch of curry in the fridge. I need to eat it up before it goes off.
In order to do so I need to make rice, put naan in the oven, and chop some toppings.
Yeah it makes my pee electric orange yellow cuz I went to heavy on the turmeric, but I’ll cope.
@Michael Reynolds: I can see the interview now:
@Franklin:
Okay. I stand corrected from last night. There IS an appointment that Trump can make lower in that Marianas Trench of appointments that’s lower than Tulsi Gabbard. I bow to the master.
@DeD: Oh yes, I forgot that rule.
How right-coded media environment boosts Trump:
“Public Notice“
I was just reading about Polymarket’s CEO’s NYC apartment being raided. Of course, it’s a witch hunt and political payback because Polymarket showed trump winning. Guy looks like a SBF clone. WATB.
Anyway, got to thinking about the online betting sites that are everywhere now. Apparently quite a lot of people are getting addicted to gambling, especially worrisome in all the young men affected.
I am not a gambler. Never bought a lottery ticket or placed a bet. I mentioned once I used to clean the home of a big time bookie in Nashville. I met him through a supremely fucked up trust fund baby, who blew his inheritance on gambling, drugging and penicillin.
Being a bookie for high rollers is very lucrative and Bill the Bookie had a humongous house on the Cumberland river. His taste in women was strippers. His house was party central. Pretty disgusting parties.
One day I showed up and a couch was missing. One of Bill’s clients, a young lawyer with a wife and child, had shot himself in the head. He lost everything and couldn’t bear to tell his wife. The couch was the scene of his suicide
Really sad.
@Lucysfootball: [This is example… (crap, I’ve lost count) in the on going series Reasons to Not Elect Cracker to Office]
I’ma disagree. Democrats have to stop rescuing Republican voters/conservatism from the consequences of their/it’s follies. Trump has the right by a majority win to the administration he wants. Approve everyone. Gaetz, Gabbard, My Pillow guy, Hitler’s cloned nose, Sean Hannity, Carlson, Invest in gold futures guy, whoever. I’m for all of ’em. I’m fed up with preventing worse damage by permitting lesser damage.
And this concludes ignint cracker’s Michael Moore-esque “giant ‘Fuck You!’ to the nation.” (And episode whatever of Reasons to Not Elect etc.)
Coulda been worse. At least he removed the couch before you came to clean.
But yeah, really sad.
It’s not often we get to run a political experiment.
If the reason voters went for the felon is the high prices that resulted from high inflation, then when he can’t lower them (tariffs or no tariffs, it’s not possible*), then his party should be walloped in 2026 and he should lose in 2028**.
But there will be confounders. a lot of them. We’ll see as they come up.
*There are gimmicks like knocking zeroes off the currency. This is common after really high inflation, and has been done in many countries. Mexico did this in 1993, knocking 3 zeroes off. It does seem more reasonable to buy a dollar for 3.50 pesos rather than 3,500, but the price didn’t change. The effect is purely psychological, but real.
**I know about the term limits in a constitutional amendment. but if the felon claims it doesn’t apply for non-consecutive terms, chances are 90-95% the Leo court will rule his way. Unless he’s reduced to a drooling orange mass by then, incapable of stitching together more than three words to for a sentence.
@just nutha:
Yup!
As I said on the Meritocracy thread
Posted here because I don’t have the time to blog about it:
The Onion buys Infowars at bankruptcy auction:
https://apnews.com/article/onion-buys-infowars-alex-jones-6496f198d141c991087dcd937b3588e9
This isn’t satire.
@de stijl:
My MO is to make one dish and consume it over the week.
@becca:
I do like gambling. I stopped buying lottery tickets almost 20 years ago. I gamble almost only when I go to Vegas, which I haven’t done since 2015. I set a n expense limit for the trip, and that pays for everything including gambling.
I usually play for low stakes. as that get me the same thrill as higher stakes. And I try to play games with a low house edge. Advantage games are rare and getting rarer every day.
I don’t like betting on sports, aside from dumb friendly bets like a can of coke or $2 or something like that. if I’ve any money on a game, I can’t enjoy it. Every move away from the spread is agony. I’d rather enjoy watching the game.
For me, it’s entertainment. I don’t expect to come out ahead, any more than I expect to win money from watching a movie. Sometimes variance swings in my favor, and that’s nice. Sometimes it goes the other way, and I stop and don’t go chasing losses.
It’s not getting any better.
I’d advise everyone to get any vaccines and boosters you might think you need now. Jr. might just have them outlawed.
I ask for an advance minute of silence for all the children who will die in the next four years from vaccine preventable diseases.
I doubt Trump is trolling the US and/or “libs” with clown appointees.
Having absolute obedience is necessary for having absolute power, and there really aren’t all that many people he can feel a degree of certainly in the area of absolute obedience towards -and have any shot at Senate confirmation.
“One nation, under Trump”: Scraping the bottom of the barrel from the git-go.
Progress Pond re Gabbard:
https://progresspond.com/2024/11/14/tulsi-gabbard-is-the-most-dangerous-of-trumps-nominees/
@Jen:
To be fair, she did ‘renovate’ the iconic Rose Garden to the satisfaction of nobody but the First Family and their congregation. Her work is done.
@charontwo:
Most dangerous so far
@Gustopher:
Really? What could be worse than blowing the cover of all of our foreign intelligence assets?
No more Five Eyes intelligence sharing with allies, either.
@charontwo: I could be mistaken, but I believe that is a riff on a Simpson’s meme.
@Michael Reynolds:
I stand corrected. He could bring back measles and rubella birth defects and surrender to Avian flu. This idiot’s going to kill millions.
The bar I am having a beer on just played The Mountain Goats’ “No Children”, and has moved on to Richard and Linda Thompson’s “I Want To See The Bright Lights Tonight.”
Both fine picks.
If this is someone’s bitter divorce themed playlist I am going to be so happy.
@charontwo: Also, RFKJr. Is probably a more dangerous pick than Tulsi Gabbard. Time will tell, of course, but I think the death toll from RFKJr will be larger.
Gabbard has the possibility of being involved in far more deaths, but I think the odds are lower of that than the likely RFKJr deaths.
On the one hand, it sucks to be a US intelligence asset. On the other hand it is a great time to be an infectious disease.
Also, Simpsons meme.
And he could be holding back with the announcement of Rudy Giuliani for another intelligence spot.
When Joe Biden leaves office, he’ll be the last of the old Democrats from when the Democratic party was the party of the working class. It is unlikely any younger Democrat can recreate the illusion and stem the increasingly non-white working class migration to the New Republican party.
Trump may be the last Boomer president, though the youngest Boomer will only be 64 in 2028. But Gen X and Millennials are likely to start dominating the elections.
@Matt Bernius:
The follow-up is that Alex did his show yesterday wearing infowars gear and with the infowars chiron in the bottom right…. all the time promoting the Onion. I don’t know why this amused me greatly, probably because it’s stupid to promote the guy who bought you out of bankruptcy in multiple ways that he genuinely doesn’t comprehend.
Did he lose himself in his own shtick? Yes. Yes, he did.