Thursday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Thursday, November 6, 2025
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62 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
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BlueSky.
Wakey, wakey.
Nate Cohn has an analysis piece at NYT, Democrats Won Big Because They Won Over Trump Supporters.
Obviously Tuesdays results don’t guarantee future returns. But I see there is now talk of flipping the Senate. If Trump continues to piss people off and the economy stays flat, 2026 could be good enough to have a chance at the Senate.
Should Ds run candidates like Mamdani or like Spanberger? Yes.
@Eusebio:..Blues Brothers…
Another one of my All Time Best Films.
Rollers…
Adventures in travel.
Wife is due to fly out tomorrow to visit her mother. Both IAH and DFW (connection hub) are on the reduction list. Last weekend there was up to 3 hours delay getting through security at IAH though the last couple of days have been fairly normal. We’re just going to our zen place and realize we have no control over the situation.
This totally does not look like what someone with dementia would need in case they go wandering around and have no clue where they are.
@Scott: I’m flying out of SLC Monday to go to Eugene, OR, hoping it all goes smoothly. Looks like bad weather on my return flight the 14th, I’m already considering just staying the night in SLC in case I-80 shuts down as soon as it gets dark. My return flight is rather late. I don’t like driving in the dark, anyways.
A bit more on the UPS crash. The left engine fell off the plane, very likely without having struck anything first. The number two engine, the one at the tail, seems to have had a contained failure. Reports state the flight was delayed while maintenance was performed on the left engine.
No way an MD-11, fully or lightly loaded, can successfully take off on one engine, even if the loss of the left engine had not, likely, caused the hydraulics and associated flight surfaces on the left wing to fail.
@Scott:
Related to this, Cranky Flier has a piece on the matter.
Very salient part:
@Scott: My step daughter’s wedding is Saturday with O’Hare as the destination airport. My middle son, coming in from LA tomorrow, has already been put on alert of possible cancellation. A lot of guests coming in from other major hubs. As much as I detest this manufactured crisis, for now I am just fingers crossed.
Nonononononononono…
https://www.wsj.com/video/openai-wants-federal-backstop-for-new-investments/4F6C864C-7332-448B-A9B4-66C321E60FE7
I hate ai more every day.
@gVOR10:
Adding a bit more context to the Cohen article, Elliot Morris’ analysis on substack yesterday, noted that every voting county showed a trend toward Dems. Of course that includes many red counties.
Does anyone else think the wingnuts are scared to death Mamdani will prove to be an effective and popular mayor?
@Kathy: I saw speculation the center engine ingested debris from the left. That makes an otherwise improbable double failure highly probable.
And @Kathy: Oh yeah. However, he has so little administrative experience I fear the opposite. Mayor of NYC is a tough job. He does seem to be a fast learner.
@becca: Socialism for the wealthy, the conservative Holy Grail. And the GOPs claim to be outraged that NYC elected a mayor who might open a handful of city owned grocery stores.
ETA – WTF, I had to re-log in between this and my 10:38 comment, same device, I think I left OTB open.
@Kathy:
Steve Bannon for one has already issued warnings. His argument is that populism is populism and that it can come from the left as well as the right.
Yesterday’s argument before SCOTUS were really interesting. It would appear that the authority for the President to “regulate international trade” does NOT include the imposition of tariffs if the purpose of those tariffs is to generate revenue. ( however generation of revenue seems to be what Trump is touting). Other methods are available to regulate international trade, such as embargo or quotas.
If the purpose of Trump’s Tariff policy is to stimulate or protect US manufacturing, the more effective action would be either embargo or quotas. (I’m reminded of Canada’s protectionist policy towards dairy; to wit, Tariffs are imposed when import quota has been breached)
As a side note, the justices seemed to be concerned about how to unwind or refund tariffs that have been collected, should they rule against the administration in whole or in part. IMO, that should not be a consideration in their coming opinion, as it not a matter before the court.
Interesting times!
Will the panicky surrender monkey Vichy Liberals with conditional morals, here and elsewhere, who insisted Dems needed to throw trans people under the bus to compete admit they were wrong?
Of course they won’t.
Spanberger should be commended for refusing to take the bigot bait, standing up for her values, and sticking to the line that government bureaucrats should mostly stay out of this deeply personal, private, contentious issue and allow indivual families and schools to ajudicate policies appropriate for themselves and their communities.
If there’s one thing I’ll commend Trump for it’s his plowing forward unbent after his post Jan 6 nadir. The lesson then and now is that no voter anywhere respects or rewards weakness, and there is no bigger sign of political weakness than responding to inevitable setbacks with endless self-flagellation and weathervane ethics. Of course a political party always has to refine and regroup in an ever-changing world (that’s the case even after a win), but you don’t flush your values down the toilet because you lost one election by 1.47% — unless you really are a pathetic loser who lacks the strength to lead.
And, BTW, doubtful many who voted this week gave a damn about some leftist somewhere using the term “LatinX” on social media, struggling as we are with affording food and healthcare and housing while the Pedo-in-Chief builds a gold ballroom and sends Argentina $50+ billion in bailouts.
@Kathy: I saw that yesterday, and initially assumed it was AI or a meme or joke or something. After determining it was, in fact, real, that was absolutely my guess. There are a bunch of signs in tacky gold leaf lettering going up all over the White House. Bearing in mind that this is not an open public space like an airport or shopping mall, one has to assume that these signs are for those who are on the grounds regularly. Who among those would be getting lost?
Mmmph.
@Scott: My 2 week book signing tour set to begin tomorrow has been postponed because of the air traffic mess created by the shutdown. I’m weary of traveling at the moment so I’m more than fine staying home for now.
In January Dear Wife and I will be flying to Chile which is where our Antarctica cruise starts from. We arrive in Santiago 3 days before our ship sails so we should be fine if the shutdown is still going on.
God help this country if the shutdown is still ongoing next year.
@becca:
Preemptive bailouts? Or yet more billionaire welfare?
@gVOR10:
Yeah, related engine failures make more sense. Its just not something you expect when engines aren’t close together. Like in a quad jet, you can totally see how an uncontained engine failure could damage the engine next to it.
@Bobert:
Indeed. The law doesn’t change because of administrative problems. But as they demonstrated when CO wanted to keep Trump off the ballot for insurrection, if “Originalism” doesn’t offer the answer they want, Dread Pirate Roberts and his accomplices can become very consequentialist.
@Jax:
I don’t like operating the car at night anymore and dear wife feels the same. I can’t recall the last time we went anywhere after sunset with one of us driving.
DW and I walk to bingo on Monday nights. It is a little under 10 minute journey. Next month we’ll have to drive at night in order for us to attend Lea Salonga doing a concert up in West Palm Beach.
@becca:
Nope, nothing to see here… Nothing at all.
@DK:
I don’t think you understand quite how people, or branding, work.
You meet a guy named Joe, he says he hates Star Wars, which you love. You classify him as stupid and forget about him. Will you ever get together with Joe? No. Is he dirty or cruel? No. A criminal? No. Does he kick dogs? No. He’s good-looking and has a good job. And yet, you have already dismissed him because he thinks Star Wars is for morons.
The point is that once you have classified a person, that person will almost always be permanently stuck in that box.
Let’s put that in the political context. You meet a guy, he says something about Latinos and you correct him and opine that he should use LatinX. He concludes you’re an annoying scold. Does he ever reclassify you? Almost certainly not, because that’s not how people work. They don’t re-analyze their every interaction. People are not fair, or logical, they are judgmental and dismissive.
Now you go ask that guy to vote for you. Is he going to vote for you? Nope. Just like you won’t date Joe.
When you annoy people, they don’t like you. First impressions tend to also be last impressions. This is why you try to make a good first impression. The trans movement started off great. They made progress. Then, they overreached and turned a lot of people off. And then they lost everything they had gained, effectively making trans rights a non-issue, no longer a hot button (as I mentioned yesterday IIRC).
Trans rights has become less of a hot button for the same reason that smokers’ ‘rights’ has become less of a hot button: because people don’t get angry at people who’ve lost. The failure of trans rights removes trans rights from the issue leaderboard. The evangelicals won’t be able to raise as much money off trans hate, so they’ll find someone else to attack – Muslims again, I’d guess – but that does not mean trans rights have won, it means they’re being dismissed, it means you don’t scare the evangelicals anymore because they think they’ve beaten you.
That’s part of it. But connected is branding. Why do so many people who benefit from Democratic policies despise Democrats? Branding. The party brand is whiny, superior, out-of-touch, over-educated know-it-alls. Who wants to join that party? How did we get that brand? Reproductive rights, civil rights, women’s rights, atheism, lingering Hippie/Vietnam echoes, and a single-minded focus on minority groups. All causes I avidly support. (Even hippies.) But neither you nor I are typical voters.
ETA: By the way, notice how my verbose condescension bothers you as you read this? Does that make you want to vote for me? Or even have a drink with me? People don’t like being lectured.
@Kathy: MD-11 are like 30 years old and the manufacturer closed shop about 30 years ago. Maintenance has got to a challenge.
@Beth: tech has been inflating its own bubble, selling stuff to each other to keep up stock prices and no profit in sight.
Kaboom.
@Kathy:
Totally. Let the skullduggery begin.
@Michael Reynolds:
Racism. Because Democrats are the party of black people and most white Americans would rather starve themselves than let black people eat also. 85-90% of black voters vote Democratic. We don’t despise Democrats, and it’s not our responsibility to fix or coddle white folks’ irrational Democrat Derangement Syndrome.
Trans rights are in tact in California, the nation’s most populous state and world’s 4th largest economy by itself. They have been weakened but survived in Virginia, where the outgoing Republican governor failed to complete his project to destroy trans people, where his handpicked successor lost a landslide running on anti-trans hate, and where the winning national security Democrat smarty declined to listen to people like you — openly and pointedly refusing to project weakness by beating up on LGBT minorities, trashing her own party, apologizing for being a Democrat, self-flagellating for being educated, or denying the fact of our superiority to lying traitors who vote for pedophiles that praise Hitler in their chat groups.
Someone should let evangelicals know they think they’ve beaten us, since they’re now desperately using their unpopular lame duck Epstein-bestie sex criminal president to push a national ban on letting parents of trans children control their own lives. A project that will also fail and that will never be law in California, New York, Illinois, Virginia, or any of the increasing number of states led by the despised Democrats. You’re welcome.
Fatso has a Truth Social post out claiming Walmart says Thanksgiving Dinner is 25% cheaper this year.
What Fatso doesn’t say is that this year’s meal featured fewer brand-name items and six fewer items overall. The Turkey cost nine cents more compared to last year, and 2024 items like a premade pie, cranberry sauce and onions were dropped entirely.
Don’t you think it would get tiring to lie so constantly.
@Rob1:
When McDonnell Douglas did the reverse assimilation of Boeing, the latter inherited the MD-11, along with the MD-80/90 line (the last branded as B-717), and several defense projects including the F-15. Some factories closed, but one assumes Boeing kept producing spares for the discontinued MD lines.
aside from this, the engines are made by other manufacturers, who should continue to offer maintenance and spares (they make most of their money on that).
All that said, lots of MD-11s remain in cargo airlines like UPS and FedEx.
My contribution to headline of the day.
Elderly Passenger Delays Shanghai Flight After Throwing Coins at Engine for Good Luck
@Bobert: Trump’s foreign policy by tariff coercion and bluff, is many steps behind the curve:
Paul Krugman:
We’re Number Two!
How Trump ceded the future to China
Also —
Krugman goes on to list the three fronts Biden acted upon (particulars in article)
– Support for renewable energy
– Support for advanced technology
– Support for export controls
Seems the octogenarian Biden with mild onset of cognitive decline had/has more savvy chops than the octogenarian Trump with multiple personality disorders on top of cognitive decline. American voters have got to dig deeper into the details that govern their lives.
@Michael Reynolds:
If you want to win a popular vote, being popular is usually a good strategy.
(Or at least, less unpopular than your opponents; but that is liable to problems if they stop being utter assholes.)
@gVOR10:
Spending on public goods like education, public transport, healthcare, and infrastructure: Obviously radical socialist redistribution!
Backstopping the bottom-lines of billionaires engaged in speculative investments of questionable utility:
Free-markets at work! Rugged indivualism and liberty, baby!
🙁
@Beth:
@becca:
Share value is the gist of it.
A lot of problems Ge had after Neutron Jack retired, was that they couldn’t maintain the focus on short term gains and ruthless cost-cutting that made quarterly statements shine and the stock rise ever higher.
It’s getting so it doesn’t even matter whether a company makes a profit or not, or is even capable of making a profit, so long as the stocks performs well in the market. See Uber, which saw no profits at all for years and kept eating up capital, but its stock value rose.
Share value is not money, but a kind of theoretical representation of money. That is, you can’t buy stuff with shares. Given many of these tech bros (mostly) already have lots of actual money they can spend, and the lavish living that comes with it, I think they see increasing share value as running up the score.
They’re like degenerate gamblers that keep betting regardless of whether they win or lose. Such gamblers tend to strike awesome wins on occasion, and then wind up giving it all back. Billionaire CEOs do the same, but they get bailed out.
FIFA head says ‘you will see’ at World Cup draw if Trump receives new peace prize
I’m betting that Trump will become the world’s highest profile soccer “participation trophy” recipient ever, with this newly created “Peace Prize” by his buddy Infantino — a person with a bit of dodgy history.
Remember the culture war skirmish initiated by the Right over youth “participation trophies?” Looks like they’re about to indulge themselves in that “social vice.” Absolutely pathetic
I hope the members and supporters of FIFA teams raise a ruckus to the governing body and to its sponsors. No fake Peace Prize for Trump.
@DK:
Racism is an obvious component in the US.
But there are potential factors, which comparative politics can indicate.
Racism was not an operative issue in Britain in the late 19th/early 20th centuries; but the Liberal Party had considerable problems with a sizable section for the working class, who often regarded tham as a bunch of prissy, moralising, annoying, upper-middle class Chapel-goers.
Hence the large working class Tory vote.
And hence also the Labour Party after 1900 increasingly winning the loyalty of the working class at the expense of both Liberals and Consrvatives.
The qustion for many centre-left/liberal-centre parties across the OECD today is how to combine basic principles with not being annoying, and being effective in dealing with basic public concerns: almost universally, housing costs and eroding marginal incomes due to inflation and relative wage stagnation.
Racism is a reason; it’s probably not the sole reason.
BTW, on air traffic limitations, we should be able to tell how valuable the domestic market is for the big three, Delta, AA, and United. One way they can maintain load factors is to redirect some of their widebody fleet for domestic flights, especially the longest like NYC-LA.
These planes tend to be reserved for international long haul routes*. So if they reduce these in favor of domestic flights, the math does itself.
Southwest, JetBlue and the rest don’t have widebody jets.
Another issue is how well the stooges at the transportation dept. manage things. If they restrict flights out of LAX, for instance, but not Long Beach, JetBlue and Southwest could move flights to the latter.
Also whether they’ll restrict routes or just the number of flights. Some routes make more use of ATC enroute than others.
*Given the vagaries of long haul scheduling, it’s not uncommon to have a plane sitting on the ground doing nothing for several hours. Some airlines will use them in such times for shorter domestic flights, or even mid haul international ones. For instance, Aeromexico sometimes flies a 787 to JFK, and now and then to Monterrey as well. The former flight is like 5-5.5 hours, the other is just over 60 minutes.
Re: my creeping socialism.
Nothing makes me feel like a communist radical more than the anger I feel when my neighbor’s fail to return their shopping baskets to the basket holders. I don’t understand it. Pay for your food, fill your bag and then pick up the fucking basket and put it away. I would not be surprised to learn that I’m the “weird American that puts away the baskets”. I will routinely put away all the baskets that are left at the checkout I use.
The Tesco workers have to take enough shit, they don’t need to clean up after us. One day the Tesco workers will revolt, and I will join their revolution. I also deeply support them for routinely closing 10 minutes early and ignoring the people whining and banging on the door.
@DK: I feel like you and Michael are talking about different things. I do not think for a second that Michael has ever advocated that D politicians should start trans-bashing.
We’re having a binary discussion about a situation where there is a political spectrum (just like there is a gender spectrum).
For instance, Mamdani’s was trans-friendly. It’s welcome, it’s a relief. AND, he didn’t end up sounding like a scold, which, yes, I have definitely seen some people sound like.
NOT, I hasten to add, anybody who actually *is* trans, because they have every right to advocate for themselves and to project anger and hurt. They are the ones being hurt.
Mamdani’s approach is “we are going to take care of everyone, and by everyone I mean, for instance, trans people”. The logic is universal: we are going to take care of everyone. That he is trans inclusive is evidence of that. Here’s a piece about it from a few months ago, written by a trans woman.
I know less about Spanberger. I expect the approach was roughly the same.
@JohnSF:
Out of curiosity, and in a similar vein, what’s your take on Polanski?
@Jay L. Gischer:
I didn’t name any names. But people tend to tell on themselves.
@JohnSF:
On air traffic limitations:
ICE agents continue to be paid because their role is public safety.
ATC agents do NOT continue to be paid because their role is NOT public safety?
(but they can’t strike because their role is public safety)
Pay for my agenda, but not for yours.
@JohnSF: I didn’t grow up around Brits so I can’t speak to that, but I know America very very very very very very well. So approaching nearly four decades of constantly dealing with the microaggressive bullshit, in my view and with my long up front and personal experience, yes, their/our racism is the factor and the problem. In the ridiculous and nonsensical Democrat Derangement Syndrome and in so much more.
@Bobert: “IMO, that should not be a consideration in their coming opinion, as it not a matter before the court.”
IMHO, if I were an ordinary person in that situation, difficulty in unwinding would be a ‘me’ problem.
@DK:
The amount of people that don’t know the history of public swimming pools in the U.S. continually blows my mind.
@Bobert: “ICE agents continue to be paid because their role is public safety.”
Where ‘public safety’ means ‘stomping on minorities and liberals’.
@DK:
Well, the British can easily be as racist as the next person, and perhaps more than most.
But it was not a factor in UK politics before the 1960’s for the simple reason that the non-white population was very low indeed, outside of a very few places (the docks districts of some port cities: east London, Bristol, Liverpool, Cardiff)
In 1900, estimated 0.5% of the total population.
So, simply not a significant poitical factor at the time.
And it might well hold in other European countries where liberal votes eroded before race became a significant factor.
If so, there seems at least a possibilty that as well as racism, the “being annoying” element might play a role.
@Beth:
The Green Party leader?
He seems determined to reinforce the positioning of the Greens as a “left” party which can peel off Labour votes. Which they have been moving towards for some time.
May lose them some centrist votes, though.
Imho, except as “spoiler” the Greens are in no way going to be contenders for even a “balance of power” position at the next general election.
Their problem is going to be obvious: “Vote Green, get Farage.”
For voter segmentation reasons, and the constintuencies in which a challenge is operable, that is not a charge that can stick to the LibDems.
Also, Polanski’s tendency to being silly on Defence is a concern: advocating leaving NATO and a bit of “both sides-ism” on Ukraine.
He’s advocated an EU military alliance system; which I happen to favour, but constructing it will be thw work of decades.
It cannot replace NATO right now
Still less if the UK abandons nuclear weapons, as per Green policy.
An EU allinace with no nuclear deterrent backstop is utterly futile.
@Bobert:
Of course not. Airplanes fly themselves, don’t you know?
Actually the latest in commercial aviation automation is automatic takeoff, featured so far only in the Embraer E2 regional jets.
@Beth:
I’ve been wondering about that lately. I know lots of them, if not all, especially in the South*, were closed and even filled in with cement and replaced with parks or something else built on top of them, almost immediately after they were desegregated.
What I wonder is whether there are any left, or whether new ones have been built since then.
*America’s bleeding ulcer.
@Michael Reynolds:
FYI: I read the first sentence, said to myself “Comrade Reynolds is on another one of his pretentious rants” and skipped down to the ETA. A few phrases probably stuck. I saw a LatinX, and maybe a they or them, but who needs more?
I think you overestimate how much weight people put into twits being twits when their twittery is of zero effective impact.
Rolling your eyes at someone doesn’t create the same long term connections as being genuinely angry at them.
Anyway, carry on. I think there’s an old Al Gore ad you can be offended at somewhere….
@Rob1: The FIFA Peace Prize is a brilliant idea. Genius.
I can’t tell if it’s satire or reality. Please be real.
IHOP should have a Peace Prize.
And Rand Paul’s alternative Optomologist Accreditation thing should give him an award for forward vision.
BTW, the man charged with throwing a sandwich at point blank range at a federal agent, has been acquitted.
There goes the plan to invade Venezuela to eliminate their sandwiches of mass destruction.
More on the case of the hurled hoagie.
The jury took seven hours to deliberate on the evidence before acquitting the sandwich slinger.
Source
@Gregory Lawrence Brown:
Maybe they were busy ordering take-out sandwiches?
Strictly for evidential purposes, obvs.
“Does mustard on the pastrami constitute chemical weapons use?”
“Only if you add sauerkraut, surely?”
@Rob1:
I love the World Cup, and would very much like to attend a match or two (as I did in 1994, when some group matches were held at Stanford Stadium).
But … I hope that FIFA moves all matches planned in the United States to Canada, Mexico and Central America, solely for the purpose of keeping Trump from taking the spotlight at the finals celebration.
That said, if FIFA doesn’t change the planned venues, I sincerely hope that they give their ‘peace prize’ to Pope Leo, Barack Obama, or Nancy Pelosi.
On more mundane stuff, the coffee maker’s carafe cracked, and now leaks bad coffee onto the heating plate and the counter. A replacement costs about 450 pesos. A new coffee maker costs between 350-750. I really don’t like the one we have, so I’m getting a new one.
Hell Week officially will launch today, just as soon as the customer uploads the request for proposals to the platform. They’ve already issued the notice to the federal diary, so it should come out today. At some time.
At least the dates are relaxed. Questions are due on the 13th, the proposal on the 21st. If the bosses make a decision on prices, I should be able to finish my part the day they do. No AI will be used on my part, but I can’t guarantee none will be hurt.
@al Ameda:
Short of the host country or cities retiring their bid, it’s too late for that. Tickets are already on sale (or have been sold) at outrageous prices.
FWIW, group play will be on all three countries. The first knockout round will have two games each in Mexico Canada. The next knockout round only one game each. Everything else happens in the US.
It’s too bad. His Majesty Manuel Andres -I would have scored a major diplomatic coup had he entered into a bid with Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras.
BTW, not that it matters, Mexico will be the first country to host three of these Snoozefests.
@Kathy: Not a fan of futbol, I take it.
I recall the 1998 World Cup with great fondness. Not only did it feature the US team with Alexei Lalas shoring up a very strong defensive end, but the US men made it to knockout rounds for the first time ever. They played Brazil in Stanford Stadium – about 10 miles from where I was sitting.
I watched several of these games in the cafeteria where I worked, with many other employees, who had a serious international flavor. Highly enjoyable, highly memorable.
There it is, the third* stupidest vote in US history
TL;DR: poor Adolf Muxk won’t have to do with a measly few hundred billions anymore. As God is his witness, he will never go hungry again!
I wonder if any old Soviet apparatchiks are still around, and kicking themselves for having given up the fight too soon.
*The 2016 and 2024 general election votes are on top. Or bottom, depending on how you look at it.
@Jay L. Gischer:
I should go on my usual rant about how boring, pointless, and utterly incomprehensible this so-called game is, then casually mention I attended a bunch of Snoozefest games in 1986, including all knockout games in Mexico City and the final.
But I won’t.
Unless I just did.
@al Ameda:
How about all three?!!
Infantino and Trump are too preoccupied with their mutual admiration twosome, sucking up to each other, that they would never entertain changing the venues.
@Kathy: A joke my father used to tell:
“This food is terrible!” said the sailor.
“Yeah, and the portions are too small!” said his comrade at the mess table.
@Jay L. Gischer:
I thought it would be an interesting experience.
I also later thought my brother wouldn’t mind if I resold my tickets to the last four games, including the final.
I was wrong on both counts.
But I did learn FIFA referees need to fail a vision test before being certified for the most high stakes games.
The Republican Super-majority in Mississippi (40% black) has been broken
https://www.mississippifreepress.org/democrat-johnny-dupree-flips-republican-held-mississippi-senate-district-in-forrest-county/
My view is it is stuff like this, not the Progressives in the big cities, that is going to make a difference. But the media is in the big cities, not Jackson MS so you won’t hear about it. Media doesn’t care about grassroots.