Tuesday’s Forum

OTB relies on its readers to support it. Please consider helping by becoming a monthly contributor through Patreon or making a one-time contribution via PayPal. Thanks for your consideration.

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. gVOR10 says:

    Starting my day with a kvetch. A week or so ago I complained here about frequently seeing “break” instead of “brake”. Yesterday’s NYT had a story about the funicular crash in Portugal.

    A final report is expected around September 2026, but the one released on Monday said that the “the braking system of the carriages was not effective” in stopping the car’s descent, and that no record existed of the agency testing the emergency break in the event that the cable snapped.

    As in “Break glass in case of emergency”? Right and wrong in the same paragraph. In this case I think it’s the common journalistic flaw of a political and travel reporter repeating what he’s told without understanding it.

    3
  2. Scott says:

    Unfettered and Unaccountable: How Trump is Building a Violent, Shadowy Federal Police Force

    When Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers stormed through Santa Ana, California, in June, panicked calls flooded into the city’s emergency response system.

    Recordings of those calls, obtained by ProPublica, captured some of the terror residents felt as they watched masked men ambush people and force them into unmarked cars. In some cases, the men wore plain clothes and refused to identify themselves. There was no way to confirm whether they were immigration agents or imposters. In six of the calls to Santa Ana police, residents described what they were seeing as kidnappings.

    “He’s bleeding,” one caller said about a person he saw yanked from a car wash lot and beaten. “They dumped him into a white van. It doesn’t say ICE.”

    One woman’s voice shook as she asked, “What kind of police go around without license plates?”

    And then this from another: “Should we just run from them?”

    During a tense public meeting days later, Mayor Valerie Amezcua and the City Council asked their police chief whether there was anything they could do to rein in the federal agents — even if only to ban the use of masks. The answer was a resounding no.

    Current and former national security officials share the mayor’s concerns. They describe the legions of masked immigration officers operating in near-total anonymity on the orders of the president as the crossing of a line that had long set the United States apart from the world’s most repressive regimes. ICE, in their view, has become an unfettered and unaccountable national police force.

    I wonder when Stand Your Ground states will have an incident.

    Here are the Stand Your Ground states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

    4
  3. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:

    …anything they could do to rein in the federal agents

    Remove Donald Trump from office using the rules set out in the United States Constitution. In other words resounding no!

    4
  4. Kylopod says:

    I definately think we should rain in federal agents braking and entering a building and raising it to the ground, or something to that affect.

    9
  5. Kathy says:

    I suggest reading yesterday’s issue of Krugman’s substack.

    He talks about last weekend’s protest. He also explains flattery inflation inherent in cult of personality regimes, and adds this:

    Call it “mendacity inflation.” Trump insists that he’s overwhelmingly popular and that only a lunatic fringe disapproves of his presidency. Well, to show loyalty his hangers-on must go further, declaring that grandmothers and parents pushing prams down 7th Avenue are illegal aliens and violent criminals. The humiliating absurdity is a feature, not a bug. Simply lying about demonstrators isn’t enough; to prove their MAGA mettle people in Trump’s orbit must tell lies that are grotesque and ridiculous.

    4
  6. Kathy says:

    @Kylopod:

    That would be two much too bare.

    6
  7. Michael Reynolds says:

    Earbuds in, walking around listening to podcasts, this is what a passerby would hear: Fewer, not less. Myriad, not a myriad of. Effect, not affect. And it’s, toe the line, not tow the line – I can’t hear them misuse this, I just know.

    Why is that old man walking his dogs raging about the word, literally?

    2
  8. Eusebio says:

    As posted by @Scott: yesterday under the Monday Morning Tabs topic, an artillery round exploded prematurely over CA Interstate 5 on Saturday during a Marine Corps demo at Camp Pendleton, with Vance and Hegseth present. The 155-mm rounds being fired have a normal range of well over 10 miles, but a shell in the first volley exploded and rained down shrapnel along the freeway, about 3/4-mile from the firing location.

    Thankfully no one was hurt and damage was limited to bits of shrapnel striking a parked CHP vehicle and motorcycle, with other bits of shrapnel falling near the CHP officers who were stopped along the freeway. The administration had criticized and mocked Newsom for several days leading up to the demo as Newsom expressed the concerns of CA authorities and ultimately decided to close the freeway before the demo started. This message, for example, from the administration earlier Saturday did not age well:

    Newscum is lying. He closed the highway — not only did nobody at the White House or the Marines ask him to do so, the Marines repeatedly said there are no public safety concerns with today’s exercises.

    It would be interesting to see a compiled sequence of comments from the administration, Camp Pendleton, and CA authorities. It was unlikely that a shell would prematurely explode over the freeway, but Newsom did the prudent thing by shutting down the road, so he came out of this as the adult in charge while the administration kicked sand and faceplanted on the beach.

    And this is yet another screwup that would probably not have happened with a qualified SecDef. The one in charge now is responsible for this, as opposed to the Camp Pendleton personnel who would’ve provided their assessment of the risks involved. This guy started his tenure, after all, by arm twisting the Army Corps of Engineers to abruptly release water from two central CA dams, which put civilians along the waterway in danger due to inadequate notice, and wasted billions of gallons of water on a dry lakebed in central CA, far from the wildfires in the LA basin. And then there was the Signal text scandal for which there’s no public explanation for magical declassification of what clearly should’ve been classified info, blowing up boats in the Caribbean with no evidence to support acts of war, and everything in between.

    6
  9. Kylopod says:

    @Michael Reynolds: The other day I saw the movie Heads of State with Idris Elba as UK prime minister, and I could’ve sworn that at one point he says “nucular.” Do the Brits do that too now?

  10. Kathy says:

    There was an odd incident with a cracked windshield on a plane, which caused a diversion to Salt Lake City. Cracked windshields are not that rare, nor are diversions when one happens.

    The difference was the windshield here cracked all over, and loose glass got into the cockpit. One of the pilots even got some superficial cuts on their arm.

    For a day or two, speculation was rampant about space debris or a meteorite.

    It was a weather balloon.

    It still shouldn’t have caused that much damage or left marks on the windshield’s metal frame. The company that owns the balloon says they’ll be reviewing design specs.

    Good thing it didn’t hit an engine or control surfaces.

  11. JohnSF says:

    @Kylopod:
    “nucular.” Do the Brits do that too now?
    Not in my experience.
    But the English often slur or elide middle syllables and aspirate a final r ; “noowc’leah” might fit.
    Or it could just be Elba being Elba, lol

  12. gVOR10 says:

    @Kylopod: I saw W on TV once go “something something nuke”. Then he stopped with his deer in the headlights look for about five seconds before finishing “uh-ler”. You could almost hear his gears grinding, “No, stop, Rove said not to say “nuclear”, what was it I’m supposed to say to sound Texas? Oh yeah”.

  13. Scott says:

    Root for injuries.

    ‘Sean Dummy’: Musk and Duffy brawl over the future of NASA

    A spat over the future of NASA under the Trump administration went public on Tuesday, with Elon Musk panning Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy as having a “2 digit IQ” and advocating for his ally Jared Isaacman to run the space agency in a string of social media posts.

    “Should someone whose biggest claim to fame is climbing trees be running America’s space program?” the Tesla and SpaceX CEO asked in a poll on X, referencing Duffy’s prior career as a professional lumberjack athlete. One of the listed choices: “Noo, he need moar brainz!”

    Musk’s tirade comes after Duffy, the acting NASA administrator, told CNBC on Monday that he was reopening SpaceX’s contract to lead a return to the moon, accusing the company of having fallen behind initial projections.

    Now, my opinion, for which nobody seems to be interested in asking, is that, in the near term (near term being 50 years or so), it is a waste of time and money to chase manned space flight.

    Stick to unmanned research missions for now.

    4
  14. gVOR10 says:

    I looked at NRO Corner this morning. They had a post saying the No Kings protests accomplished nothing and were a nothingburger. They normally get a few dozen to a hundred comments on posts. They had 900 comments agreeing it was a pointless nothingburger. Got somebody’s attention. A few comments mentioned fake news with footage from 2017. Huh?

    It started with a chatbot.

    Grok, the AI tool built by xAI, made a mistake. Asked to verify the footage, it misidentified Saturday’s protest as being from 2017, citing “superficial similarities.” The bot later corrected itself, but the damage was done. The false claim had already gone viral.

    Of course it’s now gospel on the right.

    1
  15. Kathy says:

    Integrating AI apps in browsers is nothing new.

    Integrating a browser in an AI app strikes me as pointless.

    I wonder, though, how well it works once you disable the AI crap. Probably a generic Chromium browser.

  16. Kathy says:

    @Scott:

    Now, my opinion, for which nobody seems to be interested in asking, is that, in the near term (near term being 50 years or so), it is a waste of time and money to chase manned space flight.

    How about sending women only ? 😀

    Seriously, it’s the catch-22 over and over again. To make space travel economical, you need to be able to obtain resources, and to manufacture ships and fuel, from shallower gravity wells. But in order to do that, you first need to invest a very large amount of money to develop extraction and manufacturing industries on the Moon, Mars, the asteroids, and who knows where else.

    Remember a joke in the 80s about a videotape that showed how to easily hook up a VCR?

    1
  17. Kylopod says:

    @gVOR10:

    I saw W on TV once go “something something nuke”. Then he stopped with his deer in the headlights look for about five seconds before finishing “uh-ler”. You could almost hear his gears grinding, “No, stop, Rove said not to say “nuclear”, what was it I’m supposed to say to sound Texas? Oh yeah”.

    I remember once hearing a Fox host say “Democratic Party,” pause for a second, then quickly “correct” it to “Democrat Party.”

    Also, anyone who thinks Dubya’s accent is just natural Texan should listen to Jeb, who unlike his brother was actually born in Texas but doesn’t have anywhere near the stereotypical accent.

    That said, “nucular” is a pretty common pronunciation across the US, not just in the South.

    1
  18. Kathy says:

    This is the kind of piece which makes me hopeful when I see it, but also aligns so well with my biases that I have to question it: Welfare cuts have fueled rise of far right and populism, top UN expert says.

    My take is a bit different. Namely that economic insecurity drives people towards radical parties that offer easy solutions without much, if any, details. And above all, place the blame for the precarious situation on an easily identifiable enemy.

    1
  19. reid says:

    Probably too late to be seen by anyone, which is also probably for the best, but….

    I listened to the AG episode about the X Men today. Funny that Wolverine’s first appearance in Hulk was mentioned. Back in the early ’80s, Mile High Comics in Denver used to always insert a two-page ad with various comics and their prices. One was Hulk #181, featuring Wolverine’s first appearance. In 1983 or so, it was $20, a fortune for a kid and a lot for a comic at that time… and I owned it somehow! I put it and a few other valuable comics in a special binder. A year later I lost the binder. Argh. I’m afraid to check what it’d be worth today.

    2
  20. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:
    Which all works fine until the populists are in power, and still can’t satisfy the demands of their voters for jam NOW, with extra jam on top.
    And pivot to blaming the “other”.
    But then continue to fail.

    In the UK the Conservatives are currently promising “sensible fiscal policies” and “control over the debt”.
    But also: tax cuts; and a continued pension “triple lock” plus.
    (Largely because pensioners are the core Conservative voter base)
    Welfare is fine; but it needs must be paid for.
    And unfortunately, wealth taxes alone are not a magic “get out of jail free” card.

    2
  21. Kathy says:

    Let me get this straight:

    In order to protect girls’ sports from unfair competition by trans girls, they must force a cisgender boy into the girls’ team?

    Words fail.

    On other things, I recently learned of a Russian historian, Dmitri Volkogonov, who wrote biographies of Stalin, Lenin, and Trotsky. What sets him apart is he was a high ranking military officer, who had access to lots and lots of secret files in the USSR.

    So, I went hunting for his books. The Stalin biography is out of print, and I haven’t found it on ebook or audiobook form. I found the other two on Everand, but with the peculiar credit lock they instituted recently. However, I found a fourth work, also on Everand but freely available (with a subscription) called Autopsy for an Empire. It’s Volkogonov’s take on Soviet history through the lens of all seven leaders of the USSR. I started it today.

    On related but still other things, I’m juggling three books 🙂 there’s Lepore’s audiobook on the Constitution, which I listen to while driving or cooking. Then Volkogonov’s ebook, read during sporadic breaks at work. And I’m re-reading an old DS9 novel, “Fallen Heroes” by Daffyd ab Hugh*, in short 5-10 minute intervals before going to bed.

    If you hear me say something about Quark dueling Lenin over the 13th amendment, you’ll know why.

    *Trek novels are kind of hit and miss, same as Trek eps. This one is good: almost everyone on the station dies, before they push the reset button. (No, that’s not a spoiler. Everyone knows Trek eps end with a reset button).

    The same author also wrote a TNG novel (I think Balance of Power), which is a Trek comedy about a public auction of an eccentric scientist’s unreleased inventions, which may forever alter the balance of power in the galaxy forever! The Federation must face off against Romulans, Cardassians, Klingons, and Ferengi and save the day!

    That’s one next for re-reading.

    1
  22. Rob1 says:

    From the reflexively conservative Washington Times:

    He lost us’: Generals, senior officers say trust in Hegseth has evaporated —
    Secretary’s critics worry Pentagon at risk of enduring damage amid firings, resignations and early retirements of high-ranking staff >

    Choice quotes:

    “It was a massive waste of time. … If he ever had us, he lost us,” one current Army general told The Washington Times. [..]

    High-level sources said that they believe Mr. Hegseth is simultaneously doing deep damage to the military, both from a public relations standpoint and structurally behind the scenes, that may not be fully apparent until months or even years from now. They say Mr. Hegseth’s insistence that the Pentagon will embrace a color- and gender-blind meritocracy is at odds with reality inside the Defense Department, [..]

    “Across the services, we are bleeding talent, talented generals and flag officers, for what appears to be the opposite of a meritocracy,” another current senior officer said. [..]

    “The theater of it all is below our institution,” the officer said. [..]

    “Secretary Hegseth’s proclivity to pursue the so-called culture wars at the Department of Defense is a distraction and is causing considerable anxiety among many. He overstates the supposed fixation of earlier administrations on wokeness and distorts the effect that bringing women into more combat positions has had on the U.S. military,” said Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution [..]

    “Leadershipwise in the building, I can tell you the level of chaos is unprecedented. Even the teams that I was on, people were fired overnight for no given reason,” [..]

    “Not about f——— haircuts,” the current Army general told The Times, referring to Mr. Hegseth’s deep focus on grooming standards, a view expressed by numerous sources.[..]

    This one resonates with my own assessment:

    Another source described it as “the mentality of a midgrade officer” [..]

    “Hegseth’s focus on fitness, weight and appearance reflects his experiences as a junior officer. These are perennial challenges at the small unit level; anyone who has commanded a small unit in the military understands where he’s coming from,” Mr. Cancian wrote. “However, if his military experience had been at higher levels, he would have discussed strategy, threats and warfighting at the operational level. As it was, these topics were nearly absent from his remarks.

    Hope we don’t get into a shooting war during this period of self inflicted harm.

    3
  23. dazedandconfused says:

    @Eusebio:

    A quick search reveals defective arty shells to be very very rare, they happen about once a decade or so, frequently in the barrel. One that goes off in the air is simply dumb luck for that gun crew, who should’ve all been dead.

    The odds of one of those popping up and exploding precisely where it would embarrass Heggie the most are beyond astronomical. We are talking an act of God here folks, divine intervention. God is pissed. His wicked sense of humor? Legendary. Hurricane season? About six weeks left….

    2
  24. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    That’s why many attempt to crush the opposition and perpetuate their hold on power.

    As to paying for social programs and other welfare, granted it’s not easy. But it would help to raise taxes, to institute wealth taxes, and to junk the doctrines of shareholder value and capital accumulation supremacy, so that businesses would then be able to pay a living wage as well.

    2
  25. gVOR10 says:

    @dazedandconfused: I can’t find it again, but apparently there’s audio of the incident. A guy with artillery experience says the commands given were for one round from one gun, with the other guns then to fire in turn. Says that’s standard practice so if there’s a problem, it can be found on the first round. And that the commands heard called for a time fuse. Presumably the round wasn’t defective, the fuse setting was off. The rest of the shoot was obviously cancelled and the expert said then procedure is everybody backs away from their equipment and an investigative team steps in. So there should be a good report from the Marines.

  26. Eusebio says:

    @dazedandconfused:
    Yesterday’s LA Times had a piece with the headline ‘0% malfunction rate,’ until now:… It had conflicting reports about whether firing a howitzer over I-5 at Camp Pendleton is routine or “extremely rare.” There were 30 howitzer rounds fired over the freeway during a rehearsal Friday evening while the freeway was open, but I don’t think we know if they were the same type as the high explosive rounds used on Saturday. The details on the rounds used are said to be under investigation, but who knows when/if those findings will see the light of day.

    Edit: @gVOR10: “So there should be a good report from the Marines.” That sounds right.