Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. charontwo says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 05:44

   “Drop Site”

   A crisis is rapidly developing in Cuba, as the Trump administration’s efforts to block fuel from reaching the island have become increasingly effective since an executive order threatened tariffs on any country trading with Cuba. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has buckled under the pressure and halted oil deliveries to Cuba. Drop Site’s José Luis Granados Ceja reports on the catastrophic consequences of the energy starvation.

   “Read his dispatch here”

   Meanwhile, back in Washington, President Trump claims that negotiations are underway to resolve the standoff. That, it turns out, is simply false—a lie being told to him by Secretary of State Marco Rubio as part of his ambitious play to overthrow the Cuban government.

   The story below is written by Noah Kulwin, who reported from Havana; Granados Ceja, who reported from Mexico City; and myself.

   …

   The Cuban-American Rubio answers to a political base in south Florida that would revolt if he struck any deal normalizing relations with the communist government—and who, ultimately, would have the power to undo him. Rubio’s rise through Florida and national politics — which now has him on the cusp of the Oval Office — has been accompanied by a string of corruption scandals, yet with unified support back home, he has managed to emerge with a relatively clean reputation nationally. If Trump successfully lands a deal with the Cuban government that Rubio would have to sign off on, Rubio would be left to either betray his life’s cause and that of his backers in Miami, or resign in protest.

   This does not just affect transportation fuels, most of the island’s electric power is generated from imported oil. People will starve.

   2
2. Scott says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 07:10

   In Texas, we start early voting for the primaries in two weeks. If you are not online, it would barely register that elections are going on. Maybe if you watch the news you would be exposed to more politicking. A couple of postcards here and there.

   On line, John Cornyn is going full MAGA, bragging that he is 99% in tune with Trump. Plus screaming anti Sharia nonsense. Despite huge buckets of money and tons of endorsements, Cornyn is running behind Ken Paxton, our adulterous, indicted felon (but not convicted, he brags) Attorney General.

   But they are all riding Trump’s coattails, such as they are these days.

   The big D primary is for Senator with Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico running. Similar platforms, different styles. Crockett is a North Texas congresswoman and a modern media puncher. Talarico is a State Senator who is in seminary studying to be a pastor. He has sharp things to say about the Christian Nationalist right which, of course, enrages them because they pretend they are the alpha and omega of Christian belief.

   It is going to be interesting.

   I’ll leave with this quote from one of the Democratic candidates for Attorney General, Joe Jaworski:

   Dim bulb Maga republicans are demanding his (State Senator Gene Wu) citizenship be revoked. Denaturalized. These maga knotheads are the same ones saying horrible things about Texas Muslims. They prey on people because their base likes that.

   Part of being a free American is having to put up with ignorant, racist people posing as important people. It’s a hassle, but we persevere.

   It’s upsetting to hear such ignorant un-American hate expressed by anyone, much less a candidate for office. But that’s one of the things we have to endure in a free society governed by the Bill of Rights.

   What’s really irritating is these loser maga candidates actually think this is what state and federal government is for – to be a bloody hate machine to accept certain insiders’ complaints, as if there were a Texas royal court of fatted elite who at the flick of their wrists can have their target’s citizenship stripped. Their fantasy is to see their marks bagged, cuffed and deported. “Be gone.”

   It’s Nazi-esque, even if not actual naziism. The point here is the Texas Democrats running for office represent the America we all know and love; the maga lot are a political cult blindly following a few authoritarian fools over the cliff.

   America isn’t following them into oblivion. Americans who understand the freedoms we enjoy are staying right here, feet firmly planted on free soil.

   We are well past the polite stage.

   4
3. charontwo says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 08:19

   Here is a very, very long piece, lots and lots of philosophical musings before, towards the end, reaching some interesting meat:

   “The Raspberry Patch, TRP”

   What exactly are EF, the “Epstein Files”:

   I was going to tell you about my appearance in the Epstein Files, wasn’t I? I will, but first let’s briefly raise some truths and retire some off-track speculations about them.

   Some casual, which is to say not very well experienced observers, are sure that there must be evidence of massive conspiracies and lurid tales of treacherous espionage in the EPs, or else why would the FBI and presumably the American IC have gathered so many millions of pages of documentary evidence about Epstein? This is a logical question to ask, and it is completely wrongheaded.

   What are the EFs? When the FBI broke into Epstein’s Manhattan home and his house in the U.S Virgin Islands after his second, 2019, arrest, they found and hauled away some 75 computers, hard drives, iPads, cell phones, and other gadgets. The stuff filled a lot of boxes, and they were numbered and accordingly inventoried. In a metal safe sawed into in the Manhattan home the agents found a trove of more hard drives and a binder full of writable compact disks. The documents on these items make up the great bulk of the Epstein Files. (Since their impoundment they have been supplemented at the margins by dossiers provided both on request and free-willingly from other governments, including those of the UK, Norway, and Israel.) So the EFs are not in the main documents gathered by the U.S. government or any other governments on Epstein; they are documents collected by Epstein himself for various and sundry purposes. So much, then, for the popular but simply wrong idea that the U.S. Government, the Judiciary as well as the Executive Branch, had an inordinate interest in Epstein for some hidden and gnostic-rich reason.

   What about kompromat for Russia and Israel?

   Next, was Epstein a Mossad agent? No. No evidence yet to emerge from the EFs or outside of them suggests anything of the sort. Epstein was interested in the Middle East and in Israel. He knew former Israeli PM Ehud Barak and invested in a small company Barak started after his tenure as Prime Minister. But then the EPs also show that Bill Burns when he was Deputy Secretary of State—so after being U.S. Ambassador in Moscow and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, but before becoming head of the Carnegie Endowment and then DCI—visited Epstein a few times reportedly seeking what the files call “professional advice.” I know Bill Burns, but I don’t understand what that means. The point, nevertheless, is that the EPs show that Epstein, a very rich man to the tune of at least $600m, got around, knew lots of people, and had varied interests—some of them bordering on intellectual—aside from under-age women and laundering other peoples’ money. So it doesn’t mean that his friends, associates, and acquaintances were either pedophiles or laundered money.

   So maybe Epstein was a Russian agent? Um, no. Epstein’s politics, insofar as he cared about that, were left of center. He benefacted lots of Democratic political campaigns, including Hillary Clinton’s. He was friends with Barak, not Bibi—so pro-Labor, not pro-Likud. And this is why MAGA conspiracy nuts assumed that any dirt on Epstein would land on liberals, not on themselves. They thought only leftwing elites were rotten, not their own. Wow, huh? Marjorie Taylor Greene has figured out after nine years in a mental trough that “it was all a lie.”[8] Good for her. We’re still waiting on the rest of the bunch to work this out. But the gist here is that nothing about Epstein leads to a rationale, political/ideological or otherwise, for his having anything in common with Putin’s regime. He certainly did not need FSB money. He certainly had no fondness for Russian authoritarianism or nostalgia for the Russian Orthodox Church and its pure Christian values, as has appealed to some Claremont types apparently. Sure, he may have serviced some Russian kleptocrats in exile to launder some money, but that was just coldblooded business, not a hint of warm espionage.

   Here is a piece of evidence that those who have at one point or another had a SCI security clearance would know about, but that others probably would not. Back in 1980 a law called CIPA—the Classified Information Procedures Act—was enacted to close a legal loophole involving current and former IC personnel. The problem, first surfaced in the 1975 Church Hearings, was that defendants in criminal cases who had, or in the past had had, ties to the IC could, and sometimes did, claim that prosecuting them would expose government secrets, so lay off—a maneuver known as graymailing. As a result, no one would try to prosecute such defendants. CIPA put an end to that. Since 1980 prosecutors have filed motions under CIPA to determine in advance if classified information would be compromised by a legal proceeding against a current or usually a former member of the IC, and that request would appear on a public court docket. In Epstein’s case no such request was filed. Had he been, or been suspected of having ties to any foreign intelligence service, such a motion would have been recorded.

   His main point being that Epstein is a “shiny object”, a distraction from all the serious bad stuff that Trump and his team are inflicting on the U.S. and the rest of the world.

   2
4. Jen says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 08:57

   @charontwo: I have pretty much convinced myself that Cuba is his next adventure. Something about correcting the Bay of Pigs outcome, or proximity to Guantanamo…etc.

   1
5. Richard Gardner says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 09:00

   Members of Congress are fleeing the job at a historically high rate
   Fifty-one House members and nine senators have decided not to run for re-election, the most retirements from Congress this century.

   “Just eight of the 51 retiring House members — five Republicans and three Democrats — represent districts that could be competitive in November. “
6. CSK says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 09:38

   @charontwo:

   Epstein may well be only a “shiny object,” but let’s not forget what he did to his young female victims. They surely won’t forget.

   5
7. Neil Hudelson says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 10:12

   @charontwo:

   Rubio would be left to either betray his life’s cause and that of his backers in Miami, or resign in protest.

   Gee, I wonder which one he’ll choose.

   3
8. Kathy says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 10:25

   Around mid-December I was told to be on alert, because a BIG welfare agency in the state of Mexico was about to publish their BIG request for proposals. It was difficult, because this sate has its own acquisitions portal with a lousy interface, and they tend to take a long, long, long time to remove completed or cancelled listings.

   I took to checking every hour, and also on weekends. Plus checking daily a newspaper where they sometimes publish their open invitations. All this through the thick of Hell Week, checking listings with over a hundred entries.

   By January, they finally relegated the 2025 listings elsewhere, so that made it easier. Remember in mid December publication was imminent.

   They finally published yesterday, over a month and a half after it was imminent.

   The bosses decided not to participate.

   1
9. Joe says:
   Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 10:37

   @Neil Hudelson: The question is how this is resolved. What would the current Cuban administration do to allow the cartel to be lifted? Go into exile? In favor of what replacement? There may be some government in exile, but I haven’t heard of it. Nor am I aware of an organized opposition on the island.
10. gVOR10 says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 10:48

    My local semi-pro newspaper carries a Today in History column. On this date in 1936 “Nazi Germany’s Reichstag passed a law investing the Gestapo secret police with absolute authority, exempt from any legal review.” Which seems a good segue to Erik Loomis at LGM with what might well be Trump’s plan for the midterms.

    “For anybody who doubted that this administration is laying the foundation to interfere in elections, the deluge of activity over the last two weeks should lay those doubts to rest,” said Wendy Weiser, vice president of democracy at the Brennan Center for Justice, a legal think tank at NYU Law School.

    This interference could take many forms. But recent events have increased experts’ level of concern about two possibilities in particular:

    That the Trump administration will try to seize ballots and voting machines from key jurisdictions before votes have been fully counted.

    That Trump will deploy ICE or other federal agents to the vicinity of critical polling places, so as to deter turnout among voters in general — and those with undocumented family members, in particular.

    It would discourage anyone with skin color that might trigger a Kavanaugh Stop.

    2
11. gVOR10 says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 10:53

    @charontwo: New Yorker had a good profile on Rubio an issue or two ago. It indicated Rubio’s moved on from his Miami Cuban base and quoted an ex-associate as saying Little Marco’s never had a principle or a mentor he hasn’t betrayed.

    3
12. charontwo says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 11:17

    @gVOR10:

    Thanks, I will look for it.
13. charontwo says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 11:20

    Some AI investments numbers:

    “Apricitas“
14. Jen says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 11:55

    A few random campaign notes:

    One of the Republican candidates for governor of Minnesota is suspending his campaign. His daughter was found stabbed to death in her home, the apparent suspect is her husband.

    Analilia Mejia has been declared the winner in the NJ primary to fill Mickie Sherrill’s seat, defeating former Rep. Tom Malinowski. AIPAC spent $2 million attacking Malinowski and now Mejia is the Democratic nominee…they did not think through the potential outcomes on that one.

    2
15. gVOR10 says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 12:27

    We talk about weak parties. Yesterday Erik Loomis at LGM posted, quoting one Harold Meyerson,The Impending California Disaster.

    And yet, despite this huge partisan tilt, there’s a very real chance that the state will elect a MAGA Republican governor this November. Not that the two Republicans seeking that office are in any way popular: The RealClearPolitics polling average shows one favored by only 15 percent of voters, and the other by 13 percent. But every one of the eight Democrats also seeking the office is polling lower than that in the most recent surveys.

    The culprit here is the state’s absurd jungle primary, a measure California adopted in 2010.
    …
    The reason for that switch is that in 2009, state budgets required two-thirds majorities in each house of the legislature (they now require just a simple majority), and the Democrats—not yet commanding the level of support they’ve secured since—were one vote shy of that total in the Senate. They needed the vote of Abel Maldonado, the one moderate Republican in that body. But Maldonado, who was eyeing a future gubernatorial run, demanded they put a measure on the 2010 ballot that would scrap party primaries for the jungle. Maldonado and the state’s moderate Republican governor at the time, Arnold Schwarzenegger, calculated that this would lead to more moderate elected officials, though in the years since every moderate Republican in the state, including Schwarzenegger, has been driven from the party’s ranks.

    CA Dems need to winnow the field before the June primary. But there’s no formal mechanism for doing so. They’ve essentially given up all control of their own nominees. Seems to be the common bureaucratic malignancy of seeking power while dodging responsibility.

    3
16. EddieInCA says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 13:24

    @gVOR10:

    I raised the alarm on this several weeks/months ago, and was told I was overreacting because it was so early….

    Again.

    1
17. Jay L. Gischer says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 14:08

    @gVOR10: I saw that. I’m a CA voter. I think the threat is hyped in that piece, but not nonexistent. The issue is that nobody in the race seems like a solid choice. I’m not impressed with Porter, but she has the credentials. Villaraigoso was my pick over Newsom, but he lost.

    AND, I think CA primary voters will understand the issue, and look at the polls. Some will be stubborn with their marginal candidate, but most will pick someone doing well, precisely to avoid the above scenario.

    There’s also the issue that Republican voters would not necessarily do well by splitting their votes evenly among their two candidates.

    1
18. EddieInCA says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 14:51

    @Jay L. Gischer:

    I’m not impressed with Porter, but she has the credentials.

    Sorry, Jay. Can’t let that slide. She’s a horrible human being.

    Porter tears into staffer.

    Porter’s Bad Boss problem

    Katie Porter verbally abused then-husband in explicit tirade: ‘F–king idiot,’ and ‘too f–king dumb’ to operate a phone, court docs say
19. Kathy says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 14:58

    At the rate AI is being pushed into apps and gadgets, we can’t be far from an AI-free AI agent.

    The sooner the bubble pops, the less worse the aftermath will be.

    1
20. JohnSF says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 15:33

    @charontwo:
    I’ve said it before: the entire Epstein thing, and thus the “files”, have several aspects, which may, or may not, connect.
    And if they are linked may be to various extents in various specific cases.

    Beisde his criminal sexual activities, which seem likely to have involved various others in his circle, to still undetermined extents, Epstein had his “day job” as a private-wealth finacial advsier/mananger, the “Epstein Foundation” operations, the “glam party” host, and the remarakble degree of social networking.

    Unless all this is properly investigated, with especial focus on the bank accounts, exactly how they interacted looks unlikely to be resolved.

    But there are aspects which seem, at least to me, to indicate possibilities , not certainties, of both intelligence and organised crime connections (and re the Russian “mob”, the distintion is often rather hazy).
    Where did Epstein’s money come from? A mid-level trader suddently rockets into the half-billonaire category.
    At least some of his associates from New York in the late 1880’s/ early 1990’s had links to the penumbra of organised crime.
    Ghislaine Maxwell arrives in New York 1991, and immediately links up to Epstein.
    Both the sex crimes and possibly some fiancial and information transactions seem to open up psssibilities for “leveraged influence” which many intelligence agencies might have an inerest in.
    Even if not “an agent” for any agency, Epstein could quite readily have passed on information in exchange for various sorts of favours.
    Why did the federal prosection of Epstein in 2005 to 2009 get pleaded down to a minimal sentence in a Florida state court?
    And no apparent investigation of the finacial side at all?

    Garfinkle may well be correct, but various aspects of this continue to smell, to my possibly over-sensitive nostrils, like a month-old kipper.
    CIPA or no CIPA
    (There are three obvious reasons why a CIPA might not have been filed.)
    (And apparent political leanings have never ruled out dealings, either for profit or self-preservation, with those of very differnt views.)

    2
21. Eusebio says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 15:33

    @EddieInCA:
    Actually, the husband was verbally abused by both Katie Porter and the mashed potatoes. From the story at the third link (NY Post),

    California gubernatorial contender Katie Porter once dumped scolding mashed potatoes on her then-husband’s head during a fight,…

    2
22. dazedandconfused says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 16:38

    @Eusebio:

    Not sure they got the spelling right, but “Scolding Mashed Potatoes” would be a good name for a rock band.

    1
23. Scott says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 16:59

    LOL.

    The Turning Point grift machine has endorsed for Texas Senator the worst of the worst: the adulterous, indicted felon Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

    Bet Trump will follow.

    1
24. Jay L. Gischer says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 17:13

    @EddieInCA: A couple of points.

    Nothing I said contradicts anything you said. Nothing you said contradicts anything I said. I said, “i’m not that impressed with Porter”. You seem to have taken that as praise? I said, “She has the credentials” As in, she has some name recognition and prior experience that people will think is relevant. That’s factual, not preference.

    I wrote a whole lot more, but I deleted it. We are in a time of rumors and hype, which I hate. I have to live in it, it’s not up to me. I have a long-established habit of taking my own impulse to rule the world and burying it in the backyard. I don’t have to participate, though.

    One can only do what one can do.

    1
25. Kathy says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 17:22

    @gVOR10:
    @EddieInCA:
    @Jay L. Gischer:

    We’re at the point where everyone agrees someone should step down. And everyone agrees it should be the other guy.

    1
26. Kathy says:
    Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 19:30

    El Taco admits he sets tariffs based on his mood, at least in part.

    He also thinks a 30% tariff is very low.

    Figures.

    1
27. Richard Gardner says:
    Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 00:33

    Horrific school shooting this afternoon in Tumbler Ridge British Columbia. At least 10 dead including the shooter (suicide). Small rural town in the Rockies Foothills near the Alberta border, pop 2400 (I’d never heard of it, likely nearest town of size is Dawson Creek BC. I know the Lower Mainland only). CBC Updates https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/livestory/active-shooter-alert-tumbler-ridge-secondary-school-bc-live-updates-9.7083740
    Lots of early reports that I’m not repeating as there will be some changes by morning. BTW, town is on MST, not PST.