Wars Have Consequences
Oil prices are sharply up.
Who could have known that starting a major military operation in the Persian Gulf could lead to broader global economic consequences?
Well, NBC News reports: U.S. crude oil sees largest weekly price jump on record.
U.S. crude oil recorded its biggest weekly gain on record, dating back to the inception of the West Texas Intermediate oil contract in March 1983, as the escalating Iran war threatens global energy supplies.
On Friday alone, U.S. crude oil spiked more than 12% to more than $91 per barrel, its highest price since late 2022.
Since the start of the year, the price of U.S. crude has risen nearly 60%.
Brent, the international oil benchmark, broke $94 per barrel as it jumped more than 9% to its highest level since late 2023.
This has direct consequences at the pump:
Gee, I wonder what happened right before that March 2 spike?
More from CNBC: Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983.
Here’s a nice map of relevance:
But, seriously, are people supposed to know this stuff?
I mean, the Bro of War assures us all that our warfighting warriors and their lethally kinetic lethality is all you need to know about these kinds of action.
Geostrategy is the kind of wokeness one might learn at one of those pointy-headed elite schools. Who needs to fret about such things?
(I snark in mental self-defense.)
Iraq has shut down 1.5 million barrels per day of production, two Iraqi officials told Reuters Tuesday. Kuwait has also started cutting production after running out of storage space, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal on Friday.
“The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, told clients in a Friday note.
Production cuts could approach 6 million bpd by the end of next week if the Strait is not open to traffic, Kaneva said. JPMorgan expects the United Arab Emirates to show supply constraints next week.
Heckuva job, Trumpie (although I am sure a bunch of admin-connected folks are doing great with oil stocks and betting markets, so what am I complaining about?)
I am quite certain the Trump University economists know what they are doing and inflation will NOT be affected.
Funny thing is that Iran has not even closed the strait. The other funny thing is that the USN does not have enough ships to escort all the tankers, if by ‘escort’ they mean provide anti-missile defenses. One mine, or one anti-ship missile, one burning tanker, and it gets so much worse.
I suppose the silver lining is that China suffers most and is, therefore, rather unlikely to help Iran pull off a successful attack. But Russia? Very different incentives there.
Don’t forget prediction markets. There were several large bets that suggest (read: indicate) someone knew the attack was imminent. I’m guessing nobody unintentionally invited a journalist to that Signal chat.
With the military build up in the gulf, it was never a question of “if” only “when.” Iran couldn’t deliver whatever concessions the felon wanted and I wonder if he knew.
Nothing like this has ever happened before. No one knew oil prices depended on supply.
Here is a graphic of who Iran is targetting/attacking:
“Graphic“
Intel says Fatso is an idiot. How long before he TACO’s?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/07/iran-intelligence-report-unlikely-oust-regime/
I’m not one of the people who hold the opinion this is Operation Epstein Fury, as I doubt the Israelis are overly concerned about that issue, if at all, but one of the consequences is that it appears some of the most embarrassing for Trump details in the Epstein files could be released and the press would barely mention it.
Been all over the headlines in normal times.
So, do we already know why we all have to suffer the consequences of Donnie’s excellent Iran adventure?
At least GWB had the courtesy to come up with a somewhat plausible lie.
It seems we must suffer through this one just because he could.
Another one for the “In Front of Our Noses” series, I guess.
@drj:
If only the felon and his admin had the competency of Geo. W. Bush and his admin. Pretty low bar, that.
No less an authority than the New York Post has condescendingly explained that President Trump is engaged in a brilliant global offensive to cut the legs from under China and Russia. The attack on Iran is only a tactical move in this Great Game. https://nypost.com/2026/03/06/opinion/the-obvious-signs-the-iran-war-is-part-of-larger-contest-with-russia-and-china/ I suppose the regime it not making this argument itself because it would upset all the Radical Marxists in the Democratic Party. President Trump is known for preferring to do good by stealth.
Meanwhile in other developments that are no doubt all part of the Grand Strategy if only we had the wit to see it, Indonesia appears to be on the verge of withdrawing from the “Board of Peace” and cancelling its commitement to send peacekeepers to Gaza, and this:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/07/allies-fear-iran-war-will-leave-them-without-u-s-weapons-they-bought-00817204
@Michael Reynolds: Iran has claimed it attacked a ship that tried to transit the Strait. https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/iran-says-malta-flagged-tanker-struck-near-hormuz-3215773?s=2
@Michael Reynolds:
Most of the actual transit lanes are within howitzer range of the coast of Iran. Which also means easily within range of rocket artillery from farther inland, even before we get to the (very) short-range ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles. Loaded oil tankers don’t change course easily. They don’t do evasive maneuvers. Iran has had years to get ready. Assume spotters, hundreds of artillery platforms, tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition. Assume hiding places. That’s a hell of a gauntlet to run.
@Ken_L:
I’m sure Mad Vlad is all broken up about all the extra income he’ll be getting off oil and natural gas.
Going to copy/paste my comment from the Forum:
If Hormuz stays shut, hydrocarbons prices are going to go through the roof.
Not only that, but in short order much of Asian manufacturing will start to shut down; especially petro-chemicals.
With massive imapcts on prices and supply chains globally.
A little further on, fertiliser shortages are going to start impacting agriculture, and food prices will start climbing.
Who knows, but that we may yet see a Chinese/Indian/European naval task force securing the Straits?
I’m joking; but only just: the consequences could be enormous, and Trump has failed to position sufficient forces for securing/convoying at Hormuz.
I’ve little doubt the Pentagon pointed out this vulnerability.
Why it was overlooked will await the post-mortem on all this.
@Michael Reynolds:
@Michael Cain:
There are mitigations (not absolute) to an Iranian closure:
– convoying
– seizing Qeshm and the other straits islands.
The thing is, forces are not in place for either.
The USN has, iirc about three “littoral combat ships/ minehunters” in the Gulf.
And no frigates, ftlog..
While the destroyers with Roosevelt CSG are probably required for air defence for the carrier.
So the USN is a bit short on convoy escort vessels.
As for the islands, there are no US Marines or airborne or their logistic support in area.
Maybe the Saudis or Emiratis may be expected to do so?
Good luck with that.
The entire planning of this looks like a hubristic clusterf@ck.
Unless the Straits can be reopened, and damn soon, we’re looking at an economic crisis on a level at least on a par with 1973.
@charontwo:
That leaves out the most stupid Iranian strikes: on Turkey, Azerbaijan, and UK base Akrotiri.
Though it’s interesting that the majority of strikes have been against the UAE: which of all the Aabians was the least inclined to support the US operation.
Iran seems determined not to let the US win the strategic idiot stakes without a good try.
Menwhile, the Donald continues to shit on the UK.
It’s odd; the French are sending their CSG to the eastern Med.
Turkey is still refusing US use of their bases.
But it’s Britain that gets Trumps’s ire, for some reason.
I wonder who in his circle might be prompting this, and why?
@JohnSF:
Aha!
It appears Farage had a meeting with Trump yesterday
And that bastard would pimp his grandmother to gain a politically useful headline in the Telegraph