Wednesday’s Forum

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Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Mikey says:

    Woo-hoo, first!

    From The New Republic, a piece that lays out why Trump’s blather about the southern border and attendant threat to impose tariffs on Mexico are based entirely on a lie (surprising, I know…lol):

    Donald Trump’s angry threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on all U.S. imports from Mexico—delivered Monday via the cautious diplomatic language of a Truth Social rant—is widely being depicted as a bluff. Trump declared that once in the White House, he will impose the tariffs unless Mexico stops migrants and fentanyl from “pouring” into the United States. Seen as a feint, the tactic could theoretically get Mexico to halt the migrant flow, allowing Trump to pull back on tariffs later while boasting that on the border, he has already bent Mexico to his will.

    But amid all this parsing of Trump’s intentions, a crucial fact about his new move is getting lost: At the center of it is a lie.

    Here’s a part of a statement from Mexican President Sheinbaum:

    You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States. As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP), encounters at the Mexico-United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024.

    Trump, of course, is pretending this isn’t happening, but he’ll take credit for it on Day 1 and say it happened because of his tariffs.

    That will also be a lie. The truth is, Biden did it:

    As The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal document, the Mexican government is using elaborate security operations to shuttle migrants heading for the U.S. border back south through Mexico. According to The Post, Mexican officials call this “El Carrousel,” or “the merry-go-round.”

    Some experts see Biden’s private diplomacy with Mexico’s previous president as a critical ingredient in making all that happen. This cooperation, plus Biden’s recently imposed restrictions on asylum seeking and its CBP One app program, are all major contributors to this year’s lower apprehension numbers, Isacson says.

    “If Trump wants Mexico to crack down on unauthorized migration through its territory,” Isacson told me, “then Biden has already gotten Mexico to do that to a greater extent than anyone has ever done before. He did it without tariffs.”

    There’s more detail in the TNR piece, and a helpful graph that shows the decline in border encounters for the last year.

    11
  2. charontwo says:

    Josh Marshall at TPM has a piece up on Twitter alternates: Bluesky, Threads, Mastodon etc.

    Here is a gift link:

    GiftTPM

    Here is a repeat of a Bluesky “starter pack” list of Bluesky users:

    https://bsky.app/starter-pack/booman23.bsky.social/3lbat5qqiha2v

    2
  3. Scott says:

    I suspect, based on nothing but instinct, that there are elements of the military that are becoming politicized. And not in a good way. And that Trump and his minions would like to accelerate that.

    AP finds that a Pentagon-funded study on extremism in the military relied on old data

    But The Associated Press has found that the study, “Prohibited Extremist Activities in the U.S. Department of Defense” conducted by the Institute for Defense Analyses, relied on old data, misleading analyses and ignored evidence that pointed to the opposite conclusion.

    In fact, the AP found that the IDA report’s authors did not use newer data that was offered to it, and instead based one of its foundational conclusions on Jan. 6 arrest figures that were more than two years out of date by the time of the report’s public release.

    As a result, the report grossly undercounted the number of military and veterans arrested for the Jan. 6 attack and provided a misleading picture of the severity of the growing problem, the AP has found.

    The IDA…based this conclusion on arrests made as of Jan. 1, 2022, the year immediately following the attack. As of that date, 82 of the 704 people arrested had military backgrounds, or 11.6% of the total arrests.

    When IDA’s report was published a year and a half later, in December 2023, 209 people with military backgrounds who attended the insurrection had been arrested, or 15.2% of all arrests.

    That has since grown to 18%.

    1
  4. Kathy says:

    @Mikey:

    This brings up two questions:

    1) Why aren’t these facts widely known? Did Biden’s administration not publicize them adequately, or perhaps without enthusiasm?

    2) Why is it so easy for alarmist rhetoric to trump facts?

    4
  5. Sleeping Dog says:

    Traumatic day yesterday for the state of Alabama.

    Alabama dropped to No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night and Mississippi fell to No. 14, leaving the SEC with only three teams in the projected field of 12 heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

    Bama, not in the football playoffs, isn’t that sacrilege?

    Let’s hope that our gracious hosts avoid bridges and high windows.

    1
  6. Scott says:

    Now I know nothing about what it takes to be a Navy Secretary but…

    Financier John Phelan Tapped to be Next Navy Secretary

    Originally from Coral Gables, Fla., Phelan is a 1986 graduate of Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas, and has an MBA from Harvard Business School. He is also an avid art collector and on the Board of Trustees at the Whitney Museum of American Art and at the Aspen Art Museum.

    1
  7. CSK says:

    Trump’s getting a two-story high bronze statue of him defying the assassin’s bullet at Butler, PA. Crypto investors with something called $PATRIOT commissioned the work.

    They hope to unveil it at Trump’s inauguration.

  8. Jen says:

    @Scott: Ah, yes. MBA art collectors are precisely what the Navy calls for to guide that armed branch forward.

    @CSK: Insert the following here — vomit emoji, David Rose gif saying “what the f*ck”, and confused Brittany Spears gif.

    3
  9. Kathy says:

    @CSK:
    @Jen:

    Don’t think of it as an eyesore and a waste of human time and effort (though it totally is). See it as an opportunity for creative vandalism.

    2
  10. becca says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Eve to all!
    I spent the better part of this week preparing for the holidays. The song “We Need a Little Christmas “ keeps running through my mind. Tree and lights are up and gifts are ready to be wrapped. Usually we wouldn’t have put up a tree until two weeks before Christmas, but this year we needed to jumpstart ourselves out of the maga darkness with lights and music.
    I have pies to bake and beans to snap. Y’all be safe and find joy in the moment.

    3
  11. CSK says:

    @becca:

    Don’t forget extra cuddles for Ms. Sadie.

    4
  12. Kathy says:

    For my next story (entitled “Betrayal”), I need to describe the political setup of one part of the galaxy. It’s not that complicated. There are exactly three nations, each comprising at most half a dozen inhabited star systems (and lots more uninhabited ones). Each inhabited system is like a state or province.

    Two of these nations are prosperous liberal social democracies. The third oscillates between a totalitarian and authoritarian rule by an absolutist monarch; naturally it’s far less prosperous than the other two. The third tries to conquer pieces of the other two every few decades, or to subjugate them to its will. They always lose, but they always cause wholesale death and destruction.

    Now, can this be shown to the reader via dialogue between representatives of one of the democracies and a dissatisfied planet?

    Not in the manner of “As you know, Bob, There are exactly three nations, each comprising at most half a dozen inhabited star systems (and lots more uninhabited ones).” But more like, “Look, Bob, every planet in every inhabited star system in the Stratton Republic gets exactly the military support and resources that’s best for the nation as a whole.”

  13. Lucysfootball says:

    @CSK: Maybe someone can commission a statue of Trump sexually assaulting a cringing woman. It can be accompanied by a plaque with the “grab them by the pussy” quote.

    5
  14. Joe says:

    @Jen: He is the very model of a modern major general.

    4
  15. Kathy says:

    I’ve been thinking about titles a lot.

    What I’ve noticed is that I tend to try to find the essence of a story, its soul so to speak, and use that as the title. I also tend towards shorter titles, sometimes one word.

    I dislike titles that give the story away. For instance, Asimov wrote a clever(ish) about physical contact with the inhabitants of Jupiter (I know), called “Victory Unintentional.” The title does get the essence, but it also tells you there will be an accidental victory (whooops! We Won The War!). Or consider “The End of Eternity.” It’s a great paradox, especially since inside the book we hear one character explain why there is no end to eternity. But, again, it tells you eternity will end. I’d have gone with “At the End of Eternity.” IMO that would also give the ending more emotional force. What is there at the end of Eternity? Or with what’s in the back cover of my paperback copy: “Eternity, INC.”

    Now, granted the title should also grab the reader’s attention. I’ve no idea how to do that. If I call a story “Ours,” it probably won’t grab you at all. If I call another one “Betrayal,” mere association may draw some people in. Now, how does “The Third Necropolis” grab you, or “Antiope of Troy Book One: Apotheosis.”? no idea at all.

  16. Stormy Dragon says:

    @Scott:

    o/~ Now landsmen all, whoever you may be,
    If you want to rise to the top of the tree,
    If your soul isn’t fettered to an office stool,
    Be careful to be guided by this golden rule.
    Stick close to your desks and never go to sea,
    And you all may be rulers of the Queen’s Navy! o/~

    7
  17. al Ameda says:

    @CSK:

    Trump’s getting a two-story high bronze statue of him defying the assassin’s bullet at Butler, PA. Crypto investors with something called $PATRIOT commissioned the work.

    They hope to unveil it at Trump’s inauguration.

    I’m getting the feeling that Trump’s inauguration will have that 1936 Nuremburg Rally vibe.

    7
  18. Kathy says:

    @al Ameda:

    I plan to miss watching it entirely. However, I’m curious to see how big the crowd will be. In 2017 it was small. in 2021 it was small, too, due to the pandemic. I’m betting he won’t draw a large crowd this time, unless his donors ay to bring in lots of people. I wouldn’t discount the last, as they’d accomplish one of the felon’s objectives: making him look less bad.

    3
  19. Scott says:

    @Stormy Dragon: @Joe: Why did I just get a vision of our future where we privatize our aircraft carrier groups by selling to the highest oligarchical bidder and they can run them as 18th century privateers.

    2
  20. al Ameda says:

    @Kathy:

    I plan to miss watching it entirely. However, I’m curious to see how big the crowd will be. In 2017 it was small. in 2021 it was small, too, due to the pandemic. I’m betting he won’t draw a large crowd this time, unless his donors ay to bring in lots of people. I wouldn’t discount the last, as they’d accomplish one of the felon’s objectives: making him look less bad.

    This is ‘appointment television- which is to say, I too will be sure that i’m nowhere near any venue that is televising/streaming this Confederate victory celebration.

    I disagree with you slightly in that I expect that many pilgrims will make the trip to DC for this, and I’m guessing that a million people will attend the worship services.
    I’d set the over/under line at 1M.

    2
  21. Slugger says:

    Say, is this heroin endorsement by RFK, Jr, real or a clever AI creation?

  22. Lucysfootball says:

    As terrible as Trump’s cabinet picks are, RFK Jr. might be the worst of all (I am not including Gabbard as DNI). HHS includes NIH and CDC. The idea that a strident anti-vaxxer, anti-science idiot like RFK Jr. would oversee the NIH and CDC is obscene. My wife had an eye condition and was an officer in the advocacy group for that condition. In that capacity she met several of the top neuro-ophthalmologists in the world who worked for the NIH. These were brilliant, dedicated doctors who were passionate about helping people. It’s disgusting that their boss would be a crackpot who thinks getting rid of vaccines, eliminating fluoride, and drinking raw milk are keys to improving the health of Americans. My guess is you will see some of the best and the brightest leave. But that will probably be the case in many agencies.

    4
  23. Stormy Dragon says:

    @Scott:

    o/~ God damn them all, I was told
    We’d cruise the seas for Chinese gold
    We’d fire no guns, shed no tears
    Now I’m a broken man on a Norfolk pier
    The last of Phelan’s privateers o/~

    3
  24. just nutha says:

    @Kathy: Alarmist rhetoric usually Trump’s fact because people lean more toward xenophobia than toward neighborliness. Hate is always easier than love, intolerance easier than acceptance. The power of conservatism over liberalism is that conservatism has only to appeal to our baser nature.

    The Apostle Paul, as John Calvin (and others before him, I’m sure) noted, was right: people are not basically good.

    3
  25. just nutha says:

    @Sleeping Dog: Bama wouldn’t be having this problem if it hadn’t let the SEC invite a bunch of carpetbaggers and interlopers in.

    1
  26. Sleeping Dog says:

    @Stormy Dragon:

    A closeted Stan Rogers fan. Who knew.

    2
  27. just nutha says:

    @CSK: @Jen: @Kathy: It’s being financed with a new Cryptocurrency. It’s a scam to fleece gullibles.

    2
  28. Not the IT Dept. says:

    Hey guys, check this out. Apparently we’re going to invade Mexico: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-mexico-drug-cartels-military-invade-1235183177/

    Quote: “In Trump’s government-in-waiting, the only question is how massive the U.S. assault on Mexican drug cartels should be.”

    Yeah, because that’s the kind of military action that works so well for us this century.

    4
  29. just nutha says:

    @Kathy: The best way to find out is by asking readers what they need/want to know and what they understand. The shorter less helpful version: sure that can work. (Of course, everything can work…)

    1
  30. just nutha says:

    @Kathy: I have a perfect record, I have never watched an inauguration. They’re all celebrations of pyrrhic victories. You never end up with what you voted for.

    And Trump’s supporters can go hoping this will remain true in this case (as will we non supporters).

    1
  31. Jay L Gischer says:

    I’m pondering something today. Remember when Kamala went on Fox News for an interview with Bret Baier? And remember when Baier asked her why it was that 50 percent of Americans don’t think Trump tried to overthrow the government, were they stupid? She responded that she would never call the American people stupid, and then went on to say that elections are hard, they are supposed to be hard.

    Today I am wondering about a counterfactual. I don’t know that I think it would have made any difference. But here it is:

    What if she had said, “they think that because a whole lot of people are lying to them about what happened and what it means. Your organization, for instance, had to pay over a billiion dollars in a defamation judgement (or was it a settlement?) for the lies it spread about Dominion. How would we expect the American people to understand what’s really going on when people they trust are lying to them?”

    I had this thought. I thought, given what Kamala said and did in the debate, it’s not as if she isn’t bold enough to say that. Perhaps it was a condition of her appearance that she wouldn’t mention the Dominion judgement?

    I dunno. What do you think? Would that have been better? Worse? Might there have been such an agreement? Was agreeing to that a good idea?

    Also, why we are at it, what do you think was the reason that Kamala never went on Joe Rogan? My guess is that they wouldn’t agree to not edit the interview, but it’s just a guess.

    And no, I’m not sure it would have mattered. Would Joe Rogan somehow have inspired all those white women who voted for Hillary and Biden, but stayed home for Kamala? I’m not seeing it.

    2
  32. charontwo says:

    @al Ameda:

    Trump’s getting a two-story high bronze statue of him defying the assassin’s bullet at Butler,

    The reality being Trump realizing the danger was in the past seizing the opportunity for a memorable photo.

    2
  33. Kathy says:

    @just nutha:

    I buy that as regards immigration and crime. But how about on the state of the economy? Now and then some polls had people responding their personal financial situation was good, but perceived the economy as doing poorly.

    Not that personal and national situations can’t be different. But when so many people say they’re doing well but the country isn’t, one is drawn to the conclusion that rhetoric beats facts.

    @just nutha:

    “A scam to fleece gullibles” pretty much sums up the felon’s campaign and subsequent term.

    @Not the IT Dept.:

    A military solution might work, but not the way the idiot advisors are apparently advising.

    You could send small units, drones, surveillance planes, etc. to work alongside Mexican troops to attack and take out drug labs and cartels. Even this wold be very bloody. I’ve said before, the cartels have the manpower, weapons, and training (provided by the US no less) to effectively fight US forces. As you say, America hasn’t covered itself in glory after Afghanistan and Iraq.

    It’s a fool’s errand anyway. The reason Mexico has lots of drug cartels these days is twofold: 1) Colombia managed to take out many of those cartels in their territory, 2) there is a huge and very profitable demand for drugs in America (and elsewhere).

    Even if the felon wipes out the Mexican cartels, others will arise elsewhere. You think Venezuela wouldn’t love to get a big slice of the US drug trade?

    Eliminating the demand is probably not possible. people have been using drugs since there have been people and drugs. I favor legalizing and regulating drugs, along with offering addiction treatment programs. But then, that’s the case with alcohol, which causes a lot of damage the world over.

    2
  34. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Not the IT Dept.:
    There will be some in Mexico who will welcome US military attacks on the cartels. The cartels are parasites. The question is how much Mexicans will see them as, ‘our parasites’ and rally on patriotic grounds.

    But asymmetrical warfare would pose a wee bit of a problem. The cartels know how to make bombs and they have wide networks already inside the US. If I were playing their hand I’d be looking at infrastructure targets, not civilians – less outrage, more actual damage.

    I don’t think anyone in the Trump regime understands Mexico’s larger role in our economy. Mexico is supposed to be our new China, the new manufacturer. Hostilities with Mexico will fuck with our re-shoring.

    2
  35. DK says:

    There are three House races officially uncalled, candidates separated by hundreds of votes.

    CA-13, Democrat Adam Gray leads incumbent Republican John Duarte by ~200 votes. It’s an inland, largely agricultural district, very Hispanic.

    CA-45, Democrat Derek Tran leads incumbent Republican Michelle Steel by ~600 votes. It’s suburban L.A./OC district, mostly Asian and Hispanic.

    IA-1, a mid-income heavily white district where incumbent Republican Marinette Miller-Meeks leads Dem challenger Christina Bohannan by ~800 votes. Meeks famously won in 2020 by six votes.

    It’s looking like the current leaders will hold, based on the origin of outstanding ballots. If they do, the final House result = Democrats pickup a seat, Republicans keep their one seat smaller thin majority.

    So add that data point to this strange election cycle.

    3
  36. Kathy says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    The cartels are complicated.

    No one likes the violence. but in some areas they provide employment for large numbers of people, and now and then they complement social services in poorer areas (and make sure the recipients know who paid for it).

    And American troops are not popular anywhere in the country.

    Not that there will be mass armed resistance. But if the cartels start recruiting volunteers to fight the gringos, there will be many.

    4
  37. Beth says:

    @Michael Reynolds:
    @Kathy:

    And what if Mexico says “no”. I’d be happy for education on this, but my understanding is that the Mexican government and general population don’t want the U.S. Military to turn Mexico into Afghanistan II.

    Over the last couple of weeks I’ve realized what I know and understand about Mexico (overall) is basically negligible. The same for Canada, but I suspect that Mexico is and has been way more important to the U.S. we all just ignore it.

    I suspect that except for a small slice of the U.S. Military leadership, diplomats, and people who’s job it is to know what’s going on, the broader U.S. Military and government are in about the same boat as I am. What’s going to happen when the small i ignorant are told what to do by the capital I Ignorant and the Ignorant decide that Mexico is full of lazy assholes, druggies, and comic book cartel types?

    I’m quite sure the worlds 12th largest economy is actually none of those things and will object violently if U.S. Army starts shooting over the border.

    2
  38. Mikey says:

    @Kathy:

    1) Why aren’t these facts widely known? Did Biden’s administration not publicize them adequately, or perhaps without enthusiasm?

    It seems like they didn’t really publicize them. I was somewhat aware there was a major drop in border encounters, but I don’t recall any campaign ads about that when either Biden or Harris was atop the ticket. Why wouldn’t they trumpet it from the rooftops, given how immigration was a gigantic vulnerability for them? “In only 10 months, the Biden administration has reduced border encounters by 75%” is a pretty direct counter to Trump’s lies. But I don’t even recall it coming up in interviews with either of them (although to be fair I certainly didn’t watch every interview).

    2) Why is it so easy for alarmist rhetoric to trump facts?

    People are people, what can I say. We can be pretty easy to manipulate. But if the facts aren’t even pushed out at all, there’s no chance for them to counter the alarmism.

    1
  39. Mikey says:

    @Kathy: Re: cartels, not Mexico but Colombia, my daughter has been living in Medellin for most of the year. I was initially concerned given that area’s history with cartels, but she assured me it’s quite safe, and the cartels aren’t much of a worry because they work with local law enforcement to maintain order. That’s…better, I guess? LOL

    But as long as she feels safe, I’m fine.

  40. Not the IT Dept. says:

    Invading a foreign country because we have a domestic problem with drugs does not strike me as a feasible way of dealing with the issue. When Trump’s own son is clearly using some kind of illicit stimulant, it does smack of hypocrisy.

    Another point: the cartels are not a single entity, but rather a group of entities at war with each other. As such they are fluid and can disappear over borders without much trouble. I can totally see a few them becoming “our cartel guys” who will use American forces and weaponry to eliminate their business rivals and take on official Mexican authorities. As a result Trump and his hacks will get totally rolled by some pretty desperate criminals who will be strengthened by our involvement.

    This has cluster*bleep* written all over it.

    5
  41. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Jay L Gischer: Bad idea:
    1) Open the door for Baier to proclaim that he and the news division have no role in those decisions.
    2) Opens the door for Baier to proclaim that the news division doesn’t lie to anybody and challenge Harris to say he’s wrong.
    3) Opens the door for a billion Xeets and Truth Social proclamations that Harris hates Fox News and wants to silence the “real” free press–you know, the one that says what she doesn’t want to hear about stolen elections and all the other corruption in the swamp.

    I could go on, but I think you get the picture. (And the only thing that going lower proves is that you’re more depraved. It’s strictly red meat politics. On the other hand, it’s entirely possible that the main problem with the Democratic Party message is that it’s a mismatch to our “wave the bloody shirt” era. That’s for you guys to decide, though; I’m no longer doing anything other than trolling.)

    1
  42. SC_Birdflyte says:

    @Kathy: I’m sure millions of pigeons will flock to the shrine.

  43. Kathy says:

    @Beth:

    Mexico doesn’t have much of a military. I don’t know the numbers, but it’s plain the use of the army against the cartels has been less than successful. In an full scale war with the US, the wise move would be to ask for terms.

    I don’t know how a proposal for joint forces to tackle the cartels would go over. In any case, that’s beyond the felon’s mental horizon (or whatever he uses for one). To him, cooperation is to do as he says and to grovel abjectly in gratitude.

    1
  44. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Kathy: For me, “hate is always easier than love, intolerance easier than acceptance” is a metaphysical truth. It’s not limited to economics or any other single field in human experience. Forgive me for repeating myself, but people are not basically good. Not good is the natural, default condition of humanity. We don’t have to teach our children to be self-centered*; it’s programmed into their survival mechanisms and guarantees that survival.

    *Though sometimes we overdo teaching them not to be so. That is a different problem.

    1
  45. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Kathy: And additionally, during the 80’s, the Medellin Cartel built more public housing in Columbia than the government did for several consecutive years. (A factoid from a research paper I did in grad school.) There’s public benefit to the cartels a fair amount of the time. They’re not a net drain.

    1
  46. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Mikey: Hey! Say what you will about druglords, they don’t want their children growing up in dystopian hell holes any more than anyone else does.

    1
  47. Kathy says:

    @Mikey:

    One thing political parties in Mexico really understand is branding. It started with parties that won municipal governments painting poles and guardrails in their party’s colors. It got so bad, a law was passed that outlawed branding in the disbursement of aid in social programs.

    In Ronan Farrow’s book on diplomacy, The War on Peace he talks a bit on the subject concerning aid given in Afghanistan and Iraq.

    So, yes, Biden and/or Harris should have been running ads on that, among other things. not just objecting that Harris was never named Border Tsar…

    @SC_Birdflyte:

    I wonder, what can give pigeons diarrhea?

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    I’ve a short fuse. But I find it hard to sustain anger for long. I also find it extremely unpleasant. That’s one reason I try to avoid engaging the trolls her, even the articulate ones.

    2
  48. wr says:

    @Beth: “my understanding is that the Mexican government and general population don’t want the U.S. Military to turn Mexico into Afghanistan II.”

    They’re probably also suspecting the US would want to turn Mexico into Texas II.

    2
  49. drj says:

    @Kathy:

    joint forces to tackle the cartels

    If force could solve the issue, the drug trade would have been killed off a long time ago.

    The promise of unbelievable riches is often too much to resist to a person with limited alternative opportunities.

    3
  50. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    A Yahoo! article I just found promises to reveal “What’s the healthiest way to drink water?” I haven’t finished the article yet, but I would guess that probably putting in into your mouth and swallowing it is heathiest. 😀

    2
  51. Mikey says:

    @Kathy:

    One thing political parties in Mexico really understand is branding.

    And in the U. S., the Republicans understand branding (Trump does, anyway) and the Democrats don’t seem to.

    One thing I heard on a podcast or read in an article or somewhere, I can’t remember where, was that the Biden administration credited “the bipartisan infrastructure bill” on whatever signage was put up near a project, and the author/interviewee, I can’t remember who, said this was stupid and they should have put Biden’s name and picture all over the signs.

    I mean, Trump’s name was on the stimulus checks, and he had fuck-all to do with those except for America’s misfortune at him being President at the time, but the infrastructure bill was one of Biden’s actual signature accomplishments.

    3
  52. JohnSF says:

    Meanwhile in Russia:
    Ruble now at 110 to the dollar, official rate.
    It was 75 in late 2021.
    Russian Central Bank interest rate now at 21%, and likely to rise again soon.
    Inflation at 8% official; consumer prices estimated at more like 20% up over 12 months.

    Meanwhile, in Germany:
    Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s BND intelligence agency:

    “The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause,”

    Note: Russian agents have been playing a lot of very edgy games across Europe of late, and patience with such is beginning to wear thin.
    How fortunate we shall be if we have Tulsi Gabbard at the helm in such a crisis.
    Oh dear. 🙁

    3
  53. Beth says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    Nahhhhhh. Boof it.

  54. Beth says:

    @Kathy:

    I mean it makes sense on a whole lot of levels for Mexico to not really bother with a large military. Post 1945-ish I would guess that the U.S. could roll up either Mexico or Canada, military and intelligence cooperation notwithstanding, pretty quickly. Maybe there’s hyperbole and definitely some ignorance on my part in that. Maybe some of our people with better military knowledge could chime in. Couple that with, pre-2024, any country deciding they want to go to war with Mexico is going to immediately have to deal with a U.S. response. Like, maybe Guatemala could decide to go to war with Mexico and the U.S. wouldn’t do much, but imagine if China decided they were going to land soldiers to take out a cartel. “hey man, maybe go away, my drunk Tio lives up stairs and you don’t want him to freak out.”

    Do you think if the U.S. were to invade and the Mexican government/military were to ask for terms, do you think that would be passively accepted by the average citizens? My guess is that would start a massive shitstorm here in the U.S. that would make the Iraq war protests look like a happy walk in the park. Especially now. Maybe it’s just stupid optimism on my part, but I can’t imagine that more than like 30-40% of the U.S. being ok with that and a substantial minority being wildly against it. Maybe I’m just stupid.

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  55. Kathy says:

    @Just nutha ignint cracker:

    In some Law and Order franchise, there was en ep where they found out the victim liked to do enemas with booze (to put it non-graphically). The practice was supposed to get them drunk as the alcohol would be absorbed directly by the intestine.

    I mentioned this bit to a doctor once, and he confirmed it would work this way. And, in fact, would get you drunk faster. I assume, then, this would be a better way to drink water 🙂

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  56. Beth says:

    @Kathy:

    This is supposedly the “best” way to take MDMA. People will write whole dissertation length comments about it. I’m just like, ok, but why?

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  57. Kathy says:

    @Beth:

    Think of Ukraine and Russia. Russia is bigger and has more weapons and soldiers. But Ukraine ins’t small and is well armed, especially after 2014. They’ve been able to hold back Russia from taking over their country, but not from taking huge chunks of it.

    Mexico’s military is smaller and not as well equipped. In fact, the US is rather parsimonious as regards arms sales to Latin America. If Mexico had for some reason wanted a large, well equipped military, they’d have had to buy arms from Russia or China.

    So, yeah, the US could roll over us as if we were Iraq in 91 or 2003, and Iraq was a hell of a lot better equipped.

    Guatemala, though, has a population smaller than Mexico City’s metro area. I think they’d pose little trouble to anyone on numbers alone. maybe they could take Belize, if Britain decides not to intervene.

    Canada, however, is a NATO member and has more, and more modern, weapons systems. They’re small compared to the US, but have about the same level of training and NATO weapons. they’d lose in an all out war, but they’d extract a high price, IMO.

    Neither China nor Russia could project power all the way to Mexico. If they could, and if they tried to invade, they’d be met by US troops. America would prefer to fight the Reds in Mexico, after all. Had Mexico gone communist, I’m sure the US would have invaded in a flash.

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  58. Kathy says:

    @Beth:

    I know. It’s the urinary catheter all over, isn’t it? Things come out that way, they’re not supposed to go in.

  59. just nutha says:

    @Kathy: @Beth: The article turned out to be another example of bad writing when “how to” became “what kind of” water to drink. Even then, they couldn’t decide. Very disappointing. 🙁

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  60. Kathy says:

    @drj:

    That’s kind of a lesson humans must learn over and over again. China imposed the death penalty for opium use. It didn’t stop it. The US imposed prohibition. It didn’t stop alcohol consumption. Then they imposed drug prohibition. That didn’t stop drug use.

    I don’t think there are good options. People like to get high. I really don’t want to get into addiction and what that does to people’s lives, but it’s obvious that prohibition and force aren’t doing much. It’s time to find another way to handle the problem and minimize harms as best as possible.

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  61. Chip Daniels says:

    @Kathy:
    As we saw in his first term, everything to Trump is based on what something looks like, not what it actually is. He likes to talk big but always leave some ambiguity as a way out in case things go pear shaped.

    So all his big grand promises/ threats in his first term all fizzled out with a whimper, but allowed him to project dominance and inflict pain and suffering on some people.

    So an Iraqi style invasion I doubt is in the cards, but I think a few special forces commando raids and targeted missile strikes on cartel compounds is possible.

    And there will be some face saving discussions with President Sheinbaum and a fig leaf or two of “Well, I sure showed them, I did!” strutting even if absolutely nothing of consequence changes.

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  62. Flat Earth Luddite says:

    @just nutha:

    when “how to” became “what kind of” water to drink

    Reminds me of my thought process every time I see “organic” foods advertised. I immediately think, “well, Luddite always prefers organic eats to inorganic eats.

    But then again, I were an organic chem major back when we wrote on papyrus scrolls.

    H2O as opposed to H2O2? Absolutely!

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  63. Kathy says:

    @Chip Daniels:

    He may draw black Sharpie missiles, too.

    He kind of has an action movie mentality. I’m sure the felon believes he can order an attack on the cartels, and his super-duper-extra-special forces will take them out in two hours or less. Same if he orders a missiles trike, withe very missile hitting its target precisely and no collateral damage at all.

    His fellow travelers and useful idiots know better. But do they know how big a clusterf**k it would be to attack a friendly country and one of America’s largest trading partners?

    @Flat Earth Luddite:

    The only inorganic materials even close to food I can think of are salt, and mineral supplements. You can’t exactly make a meal from sodium chloride, zinc, calcium, and iron. Not a filling or tasty one anyway…

    Also, when we started separating trash (or pretending to, few actually do it), the common bins available were recyclable, non-recyclable, and organic. I wondered if in the latter I should throw away paper and toothpicks.

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  64. Kathy says:

    I did not see this coming from Germany.

    TL;DR: “Russia’s acts of sabotage against western targets may eventually prompt Nato to consider invoking the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service has warned.”

    Ok, so it’s a cabinet official, not a head of state, making this claim. And one in a government on the way out, and facing an election shortly. So I wouldn’t read too much into that. Not as much as if, say, Macron or Stramer or even Scholz or Meloni had said it.

    I see it as more bluff than substance, as a counter to Mad Vlad’s blather on nukes.

    Thing is when el felon takes over, he may pinky swear to his master he’d never join a NATO attack on Russia, assuming he doesn’t withdraw from NATO altogether.

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  65. Mister Bluster says:

    Today’s History Lesson
    On November 27, 1978, George Moscone, the mayor of San Francisco and Harvey Milk, a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, were shot and killed inside San Francisco City Hall by former Supervisor Dan White.
    Dan White was charged with first-degree murder and was convicted of the lesser crime of voluntary manslaughter. He was paroled from prison in 1984 and committed suicide in 1985.
    WikiP

    After living in San Francisco for a year I left The City in the summer of 1975. My quadriplegic friend Joe, who I had moved there with, lived in San Francisco for 20 years. He was involved in local politics as an advocate for disabled citizens. He knew the Mayor and some of the Supervisors and was audibly shaken when I talked to him on the phone a day or two after the assassinations occurred.

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  66. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:
    Not a cabinet official; a cabinet-level official.
    He’s a in a permanent post, not part of the administration that will change.
    Being cabinet level indicates his status is on a par with ministers, and (iirc) means he has rights of access to the Chancellor and President, etc.

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