Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. charontwo says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 05:54

   Here I do a group of posts, three I expect, on Trump’s trade war tactics. (Three because of the number of planned links and blockquotes). The context is my belief that Trump plus the minions around him are wrong about who would have the upper hand in some of these confrontations. In particular, I believe Trump, like most Americans, is very wrong about who would have the upper hand in a trade war with China, my opinion is that that would very much be China.

   First, here is something from WaPost:

   “WaPo Gift”

   What President Trump’s team wants from the rest of the world

   While substantial confusion remains over the White House’s objectives, a clearer picture of trade talks is starting to emerge.

   Updated April 13, 2025

   After much background verbiage, the piece arrives at this:

   But the basic outline of what the Trump team is seeking has emerged in their initial conversations, officials and experts said.

   The deals are likely to be specific to the problems identified by U.S. officials in each country. Senior Trump aides such as Navarro and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer have said they want other countries to lower both tariff and “nontariff” barriers, such as intellectual property theft and import quotas. Officials at the White House Council of Economic Advisers and the U.S. Trade Representative have spent weeks studying the policies they believe are fueling large trade deficits with countries like China and potential opportunities to promote U.S. exports. That work could inform the specific asks made by the administration.

   Chief among the expected demands is for countries such as Vietnam and Mexico to no longer serve as intermediate stops for Chinese firms and products seeking to evade U.S. tariffs — a practice that has alarmed officials in both parties.

   The United States will be focused on ensuring that “goods from Vietnam are actual Vietnamese goods,” said Daniel Kishi, a policy adviser at American Compass, a center-right think tank. Kishi said the Trump team is likely to push other countries to match their tariffs on China with the rates the United States applies to China and synchronize their use of other tools to prevent China from controlling supply chains in critical sectors.

   “My belief has been, the central focus has been China,” said Richard Mojica, a trade attorney at Miller & Chevalier who previously worked for U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Mojica said he expects Mexico to reach a deal with the United States in part by agreeing to limit imports of products of Chinese origin: “That would be entirely consistent with the idea of not only getting more market access of U.S. products into other countries — but also limiting Chinese access into the U.S.”

   But foreign countries may be reluctant to agree to these restrictions. Vietnam depends on China for roughly 40 percent of its imports, and Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit the country this week. Other Asian nations that the United States wants to reach a deal with — Malaysia, Bangladesh and Thailand — are similarly more economically connected with China than the United States.

   So, three things.

   1. As often observed, Trump has been a big believer, big fan of tariffs since the 1980’s, these trade wars are so compatible.

   2. Trump is really into dominance displays, the bilateral negotiations sought are largely about gaining the ability to brag about Trump’s ass getting kissed by the various countries.

   3. Trump, for whatever reason is really really focused on China, China ties in to so much of this stuff. Perhaps, the royal “we,” Trump identifies with the U.S. and sees China as committing lese majeste by being a challenge to U.S. (assumed) hegemony.

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2. charontwo says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 06:00

   Kishi said the Trump team is likely to push other countries to match their tariffs on China with the rates the United States applies to China and synchronize their use of other tools to prevent China from controlling supply chains in critical sectors.

   Good luck with that!

   4
3. charontwo says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 06:03

   I guess I forgot to make the Post gift linky, thus:

   https://wapo.st/4lyChVE

   2
4. Scott says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 06:58

   Judge launches inquiry into Trump administration’s refusal to seek return of wrongly deported man

   A federal judge ordered an “intense” two-week inquiry into the Trump administration’s refusal to seek the return of a man who was wrongly deported from Maryland to a notorious prison in El Salvador.

   “To date, what the record shows is that nothing has been done. Nothing,” U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis said at a court hearing Tuesday.

   “We’re going to move. There will be no tolerance for gamesmanship or grandstanding,” the judge said. “There are no business hours while we do this. … Cancel vacations, cancel other appointments. I’m usually pretty good about things like that in my court, but not this time. So, I expect all hands on deck.”

   I like the sense of urgency and no BS. But we’ll see what happens. Less talk, less weasel wording. I’d like that to be seen and heard from all kinds of people. As Nancy Reagan used to say: Just say no!

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5. Scott says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 07:00

   Judge launches inquiry into Trump administration’s refusal to seek return of wrongly deported man

   A federal judge ordered an “intense” two-week inquiry into the Trump administration’s refusal to seek the return of a man who was wrongly deported from Maryland to a notorious prison in El Salvador.

   “To date, what the record shows is that nothing has been done. Nothing,” U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis said at a court hearing Tuesday.

   “We’re going to move. There will be no tolerance for gamesmanship or grandstanding,” the judge said. “There are no business hours while we do this. … Cancel vacations, cancel other appointments. I’m usually pretty good about things like that in my court, but not this time. So, I expect all hands on deck.”

   I like the sense of urgency and no BS. But we’ll see what happens. Less talk, less weasel wording. I’d like that to be seen and heard from all kinds of people. As Nancy Reagan used to say: Just say no!
6. Scott says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 07:04

   I don’t think this got much attention yesterday.

   Whistleblower org says DOGE may have caused ‘significant cyber breach’ at US labor watchdog

   A whistleblower complaint says that billionaire Elon Musk’s team of technologists may have been responsible for a “significant cybersecurity breach,” likely of sensitive case files, at America’s federal labor watchdog.

   The complaint, opens new tab, addressed to Republican Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton and his Democratic counterpart Mark Warner and made public Tuesday by the group Whistleblower Aid, draws on the testimony of Daniel Berulis, an information technology staffer at the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).

   Berulis alleged in the affidavit that there attempted logins to NLRB systems from an IP address in Russia in the days after DOGE accessed the systems.

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7. Scott says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 07:07

   On a personal note, the amount of spam I receive just seems to have exploded in quantity in the last two weeks.
8. CSK says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 07:13

   This is NOT good news for our Beth:

   http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/british-court-law-woman-born-biologically-female-lgbtq-transgender-rcna201480

   5
9. charontwo says:
   Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 07:51

   Who has the upper hand in a U.S. v. China trade war? Some considerations:

   Jared Bernstein:

   “econjared”

   Import Substitution: It’s A Lot Harder Than It Sounds

   The Trumpies assume this one away. Big mistake

   Jared Bernstein
   Apr 14

   One thing the Trump tariff mongers like to stress is that if we buy a lot more from you than you buy from us, we can hurt you more than you can hurt us. The question of why it’s in our interest to hurt you doesn’t come up, because if you trade with us, you’re by definition “ripping us off.”There’s logic to relative trade flow point. The fact that we bought $440 billion worth of goods from China last year while they bought $140 billion from us means that we’ve got a lot more stuff to tariff than they do, and that they’re a lot more dependent on us for their export-driven growth than us on them. Trump has applied the same logic to Canada and Mexico.

   But there’s a problem with this thinking that’s the subject of a new analysis from Goldman Sachs researchers (paywall). Here’s the key slide, but it needs some unpacking. I’ll explain why the fact that the graph on the left skews right and the graph on the right skews left constitutes a big problem for American businesses and consumers.

   “Slide png”

   The figures plot a measure of the degree to which each country relies on the other for certain products. Forget the bar charts for a sec and consider the following. Suppose that of all the communications equipment (or tomatoes, or whatever) we import, just 5% comes from Jaredistan. Given that small share, a confiscatory tariff of…oh, I dunno…145% wouldn’t necessarily cause huge headaches for American businesses. After all, 95% of their comms equipment imports come from other countries facing much lower tariffs.
   Now, consider the tallest bar in the left figure. It’s saying that about 17% of our Chinese imports in certain product categories comprise 81-90% of our imports of those products. That’s the opposite of the above example. It means “import substitution”—shopping elsewhere for what I now can’t afford to buy from China—is going to be a bear.

   GS notes that:

   Notably, 36% of US imports from China (around $158 billion) fall into categories where the US depends on China for over 70% of its supply – suggesting limited ability for American importers to find alternative suppliers even when facing substantial tariff increases.

   The situation is reversed for China, meaning they face less concentrated reliance on us in most product categories

   In contrast to the US case,] China’s reliance on US imports above the 70% threshold totals just $14 billion, with over half of Chinese imports from the US fall into categories where the US supplies less than 30% of China’s total demand (right chart, Exhibit 3), suggesting greater flexibility to adjust amid tariff pressures.

   A simple way to understand this is that having tall bars on the right side of the figures above makes it harder to adjust to large tariffs while having tall bars on the left side makes adjustment easier.

   I actually think it’s a bit worse than this because Trump has imposed tariffs on almost all of our trading partners. True, those tariffs are well below China levels, at least for 90 days (though really, who knows what’s coming next or when it’s coming), so even if you can find different suppliers, business just got more expensive.

   5
10. Beth says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 07:58

    @CSK:

    I saw that and honestly my first thought was why bother any more. I really should just kill myself and get it done with.

    1
11. Beth says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 07:59

    @CSK:

    I saw that and honestly my first thought was why bother any more. I really should just kill myself and get it done with.
12. Beth says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 08:00

    BTW, when posting that comment I got a crash (on Chrome) and this:

    This page isn’t working
    outsidethebeltway.com didn’t send any data.
    ERR_EMPTY_RESPONSE

    1
13. Scott says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 08:09

    @Beth: I got that also. Figured out that the post actually went through and reloading the site will make your post appear. Reposting will just duplicate it. And the post will not have a delete button.

    2
14. Roger says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 08:18

    @Beth: I’m trusting that this is just frustration talking and not something more, but I hope you know how much you’d be missed if you were to act on that frustration. I’ve probably learned more from you than from anyone else on this site other than our hosts, not least of which is that the things you and I have in common (a couple of lawyers from the Midwest worried about the direction of this country) are more important than our differences.

    I’m not going to claim that I understand the trans experience—I don’t—but your comments have helped me relate to it. You weren’t put on this earth just to educate me but I’m glad your presence has had that byproduct. Take care of yourself. And as Jesse Jackson said in what I still think is the best speech I ever heard, keep hope alive.

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15. Michael Cain says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 08:45

    Site bookkeeping… At this particular time, the front page shows “No Comments” for the number of comments for the forum. This persists after a no-local-cache refresh. The forum page itself has 14 comments.
16. CSK says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 08:47

    @Beth:

    Please do NOT do anything of the kind. When I said “our Beth,” I meant it.

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17. CSK says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 08:53

    @Michael Cain:

    That’s been happening since Monday.
18. Tony W says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 09:33

    @Beth, I have not directly communicated with you on this forum, but rest assured, you have made a substantial impact on my understanding of the trans experience. I am a better and stronger ally because of your bravery and willingness to share.

    My point is that even folks who are largely lurkers, like me, greatly value you as a human on this earth and your participation here on OTB.

    Do some self-care today and feel better!!

    17
19. Michael Reynolds says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 09:57

    Re: UK trans decision, I’m going to have to talk to my wife and daughter – my decision to cut off a member of my extended family because she’s MAGA, was not immediately popular. But I have a hard time with the idea of living anywhere my kid can’t visit me on free and equal terms.

    20
20. Mister Bluster says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 10:01

    Kind of like a cat chasing it’s tail the comment counter for this thread is at 18 when there are 19 posts.
21. Slugger says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 10:07

    @Roger: Certainly want to join Roger’s statement of appreciation and support for Beth. And let’s remember we are Americans, and our great leader has shown us that we can totally disregard anything a court says.

    16
22. charontwo says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 10:19

    Some more about who holds the high cards for Trump’s trade war with China:

    The following is a long post, so I will just excerpt quote it, the whole thing is worth a read.

    “Big Picture”

    Last week, Trump put a 90-day hold on his announced “Liberation Day“ tariffs, with one very big exception: China. For that country, one of our largest trading partners, Trump actually ratcheted up tariffs by some eye-popping amounts. China then retaliated with high tariffs of its own.

    By all accounts, Trump has begun a trade war with the other global superpower. And that is likely to have major repercussions for both the global and U.S. economies.

    I wanted to take a deeper dive into how this trade war is shaping up, so I turned to the person I trust most to give me the skinny on Sino-U.S. affairs, especially from the Chinese side. That happens to be my brother Kaiser Kuo, who runs Sinica—one of the most popular podcasts out there on U.S.-China relations.

    Q: Based on everything we’ve seen so far, with tariffs first raised to 20 percent, then 84 percent, with China retaliating, then up again to 145 percent, with China again retaliating, are we in a full-fledged trade war now? Or is this all just posturing, given Trump’s quick exemptions on key items from semiconductors to mobile phones?

    Trump appears to have caved on some important categories of goods, skewed conspicuously to favor the technology companies to whom he’s so beholden, but has kept prohibitively high tariffs in place on other goods. It’s easy to dismiss these as just textiles and toys, but key components like batteries, automotive parts, furniture and much more will raise costs or cripple production for the very manufacturers Trump purports to want to help, and will raise prices for American consumers. Even with tech products like smartphones, laptops and certain semiconductors, Trump has now said they’re still subject to the 20 percent tariff he imposed earlier (allegedly to punish China for failing to curb fentanyl) , and has hinted that they’ll be tariffed under a separate schedule following a Section 232 investigation to determine whether there is a risk to national security. The upshot is that yes, we’re in a full-fledged trade war — though by the time I finish this sentence, it’s entirely possible he’ll have changed his mind. Call it Schrödinger’s Trade War: It is one, and it isn’t.

    Q: Trump keeps telegraphing that he wants and expects Xi Jinping to call him to make a deal, but so far the Chinese have been ignoring him. What are people saying about the likelihood Xi will try to make a deal with Trump?

    Based on my conversations and my reading of China’s responses to date, Xi Jinping isn’t about to pick up the phone. He’s not likely to make any significant concessions, and certainly no unilateral ones, even if they do talk — as they eventually must. But this isn’t out of some fear of crossing online nationalists, out of fear that either he or the Party will lose legitimacy and their grip on power unless they face down the Americans. It’s bizarre to me how often I see people making this claim, and I can pretty much promise you that should China end up making some concessions and compromises to restore some stability to trade, those same people will claim that Xi had no choice — that refusal to meet Trump halfway would threaten his hold on power. I don’t think Xi is ready at this point to compromise simply because he thinks China has the advantage, and that Trump’s feckless “Liberation Day” tariffs will ultimately hasten what he sees as an American decline already underway.

    That said, I expect Xi will be ready to talk once Trump cries uncle or taps out, and China can secure what it assesses as lasting advantages. Ahead of anticipated talks, China is corralling allies and pressuring trade partners not to make a separate peace with Trump. The Ministry of Commerce put out a statement after the Friday night exemptions were quietly announced by Customs and Border Patrol, calling the move “a small step by the U.S. toward correcting its mistaken unilateral practice of ‘reciprocal tariffs,’” which may not land well on the American ear but signals that Beijing doesn’t want things to go off a cliff. The U.S. is still one of China’s largest export markets and accounts for between 14 and 15 percent of Chinese exports, so it’s not nothing.

    If things “go off a cliff” it hurts the global economy, not just the U.S., so bad for China also.

    I don’t think China will choose the “nuclear option” of dumping U.S. Treasuries. It has an interest in maintaining their value, don’t forget. It would cut deeply both ways. And China does need somewhere to park its enormous hard currency reserves. Some have suggested that the sell-offs that we saw, which sparked the Trump White House’s climb-down, were instigated by Beijing, which holds many T-bills indirectly in Europe. But I don’t have direct evidence for this. China has many other options to inflict pain more unidirectionally than a big sell-off of Treasury notes.

    snip

    The most likely off-ramp is the simplest one: A call is arranged, its instigation deliberately obscured so that neither side appears to have capitulated; or Beijing initiates it, casting itself as the adult in the relationship, messaging domestically that Trump needed to be flattered and coddled and that it was willing to do that for the sake of global weal. Beijing’s price is going to be high: It doesn’t just want an end to the high tariffs, but is more concerned ultimately about the knee on its neck — the tech export controls. It’s hard to overstate Beijing’s irritation at this. Nothing has done more to convince the Chinese leadership of America’s intention of stymying its rise than this effort to starve it of key tech inputs. Sure, the policy has stimulated a lot of innovation in China — and by my lights it was utter folly, basically forcing the frog to leap past the U.S. in sectors like AI (witness DeepSeek!) — but it’s been costly. There is some indication that the Trump administration is willing to negotiate on this, and again, it’s American technology companies that are compelling this flexibility. Jensen Huang of NVIDIA met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, and voilá, the NVIDIA H20 chip, which was used extensively in the training of DeepSeek, is greenlighted for continued export to China.

    snip

    Q: The New York Times reported on Sunday that China has suspended exports of a range of rare earth minerals and magnets, which are used by auto manufacturing, aerospace, semiconductors and defense. This is in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs that began April 2. Most readers here, and most Americans generally, don’t have a strong sense of how this could affect our industries and national security. Is this an Achilles heel that the Chinese have known of for some time, and is this escalation as serious as it sounds?

    I mentioned that China still had a range of retaliatory responses available, and this is one of them. China has an outsize share when it comes to rare earth processing (the “rare” in rare earths is actually misleading: they’re ubiquitous, just very polluting, and China has ended up as a major player in the mining and a near-monopolist in processing). Rare earths are used in a huge number of industries, from aerospace to consumer electronics, renewable energy, automotive manufacturing, defense systems, telecommunications and even medical imaging. So yes, it’s an Achilles heel, but not something that would permanently cripple the U.S. My sense so far is that Beijing has rattled this saber, but hasn’t drawn it from its scabbard just yet. It would be a serious escalation — but no more serious than what the U.S. has tried to do with the tech export restrictions.

    If Beijing decides to implement export restrictions on rare earths and other strategic minerals in a serious way, then it’s really on, and we should all buckle up for a nastier, more protracted fight.

    Kaiser Kuo is the host and co-founder of the Sinica Podcast, the leading English-language podcast on current affairs in China. Kaiser is also professor at large at New York University Shanghai, and is guitarist of the Beijing-based rock band Spring & Autumn. He formerly served as director of international communications for Baidu, China’s leading search engine, and was the co-founder and guitarist of China’s seminal heavy metal band, Tang Dynasty. He divides his time between Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and Beijing, China.

    2
23. Lucysfootball says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 10:33

    I truly thought this was a parody, not an actual news story:
    Starmer told UK must repeal hate speech laws to protect LGBT+ people or lose Trump trade deal
    So the UK, in order to get a trade with the US, needs to change their laws to conform with Trump’s warped world view? Regardless of how one feels about hate speech laws, how could any world leader seriously consider doing that?

    12
24. Michael Reynolds says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 10:37

    @charontwo:
    So, caveating that I am no economist, what I take from this is that Trump is forcing a binary decision on the world: us or them, the US or China. My question is: why should Europe, Japan, South Korea etc… choose the US? What do we offer in trade that China does not? Or what do we offer that China can do better or cheaper? Is there any product, outside of the highest end chips, that the world absolutely needs from us and cannot get from China?

    It might be a more favorable decision if we were still a reliable defender of democracies. But we aren’t anymore. It might be different if our word still meant anything, but it no longer does. Our soft power is all gone. Can the world get along better without China? Or without the US?

    11
25. charontwo says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 11:05

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Can the world get along better without China? Or without the US?

    1. As noted in my first post upthread, there are many countries, especially in Asia, that are heavily integrated economically with China.

    2. China is the predominant source for lots of stuff, the U.S. not so much.

    The main source of clout the U.S. has is the vast amount of dollars serving as default reserve currency. As of this morning, the dollar is down another 0.5% or so against a basket of currencies.

    https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/

    6
26. DrDaveT says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 11:17

    @Lucysfootball:

    So the UK, in order to get a trade with the US, needs to change their laws to conform with Trump’s warped world view? Regardless of how one feels about hate speech laws, how could any world leader seriously consider doing that?

    The US used to have the most “soft power” of any nation on earth. And now it’s gone — vanished — and it will take decades to get it back, if that’s even possible. Short of a national uprising repudiating Trumpism, I can’t see the rest of the world taking us seriously or caring what we think for the foreseeable future.

    6
27. Daryl says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 11:28

    In the late 80’s I was in a bar in Coconut Grove after work late one night. Some guy thought he recognized me from the TV show, “America’s Most Wanted.” Long story short, I soon found myself thrown across the trunk of a Metro-Dade police car by 4 officers of the law. Luckily for me I had my Metro-Dade-issued Press Pass with me and nothing more came of it.
    According to the “National Registry of Exonerations” 147 people were wrongly convicted in 2024. There were 3,646 exonerations in the United States from 1989 – 2024.
    These are people who were granted Due Process and their cases STILL got f’ed up, for whatever reason. (Around 70% were because of Official Misconduct.)
    These are convictions; who knows how many people are wrongfully detained for traffic stops, or whatnot, and would immediately draw the attention of ICE.
    If, as in the case of Kilmer Abrego Garcia, we are going to start denying due process and condemning people to almost certain death in 3rd world gulags then the scope of this problem is going to expand very, very rapidly.

    10
28. DrDaveT says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 13:02

    It occurred to me today that, if he read books, Donald Trump would love Shel Silverstein’s book The Giving Tree — but he would think it has a happy ending.

    4
29. Gustopher says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 13:13

    @Beth: You’re good people, and the world and this forum doesn’t have enough of those.

    4
30. Gustopher says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 13:28

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/16/los-angeles-jewelry-store-burglary

    Burglars tunneled through a concrete wall to gain access to a Los Angeles jewelry store, making off with at least $10m worth of watches, pendants, gold chains and other merchandise, police said.

    It honestly fills me with joy to see that people are still planning and executing full-blown capers, rather than just crimes.

    4
31. Michael Reynolds says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 13:56

    @Gustopher:
    I know! As a former professional thief I despair of the younger generation’s tradecraft. Why, back in my day we still prized the virtues of hard work and careful planning. These kids today, I just don’t know what they’re thinking. I mean, anyone can pull off a smash and grab, that’s not going to get you respect in the yard.

    4
32. Michael Reynolds says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 13:59

    @DrDaveT:
    Perhaps the single book most despised by kidlit authors. Fuck you tree and your passive-aggressive martyr complex. Grow a pair (of apples) or STFU.

    3
33. Kathy says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 14:26

    @Beth:

    Beth, what everyone has said, and that some of us look up to you.

    8
34. reid says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 14:33

    Beth: Adding to all of the other comments. Wishing you the best despite… everything.

    Unrelated: Just got to see AG Bondi doing a presser. I didn’t really know who she was but understood it was not good; and there she is, lying incessantly and with supreme confidence and anger to make herself seem very serious, like an evil George Costanza. Her, Trump, and the rest are such grim reminders that character should be your first criterion when voting for someone. They are truly awful people that you can trust will almost never do the right and decent thing. (Sad that the “family values” people are the ones failing at measuring character.)

    6
35. Fortune says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:14

    @Michael Reynolds: Going into business with a Chinese company is like going into business with the mob. They get to set the terms. Even with all the new tariffs it’s easier to trade with a US company, because they’re just trying to trade value for value.
36. Gustopher says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:16

    @reid:

    Her, Trump, and the rest are such grim reminders that character should be your first criterion when voting for someone.

    I don’t know about that.

    They ran on doing awful things, and they are doing those awful things. Even the lying was a definite campaign promise explained by Vance as creating stories when the media won’t cover an issue.

    I don’t want to say that these people are demonstrating character, but maybe people should listen and believe people when they say that they are going to do awful things, rather than just chalking it up to bluster.

    Unless they want awful things.

    3
37. Mister Bluster says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:20

    In 1973 my best friend and I were sitting in a basement bar where we spent time drinking cheap beer and watching the Cubs play.
    He told me that he going to kill himself. His girlfriend had recently broken up with him and he was depressed.
    I laughed. “You will not.”
    Just a few days later he put the wrong end of his .22 rifle in his mouth and blew his head off.
    Ever since then if anyone ever says they are considering suicide I take it seriously.
    I remember meeting his mother and his sister for the first time at the funeral home and the tears streaming down their faces when they asked me why.
    I remember the utter despair in her voice as his girlfriend cried out his name as she literally had to be pried off his casket.
    I remember carrying him to his grave.
    We buried him on Easter Sunday.
    I still think of him to this day.

    John Carpenter
    1950-1973
    RIP

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38. Connor says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:30

    “China has an outsize share when it comes to rare earth processing (the “rare” in rare earths is actually misleading: they’re ubiquitous, just very polluting, and China has ended up as a major player in the mining and a near-monopolist in processing).”

    My understanding is that the former RE mines can be quickly brought back on line, something we should do starting yesterday. It is also another case study in the simplemindedness of sacrificing your industrial base, especially if considered strategic, to the environmental whims of the day. Such as eliminating coal or other fossil fuels. The Chinese care about the former, but have no intention of eliminating the latter. But I digress.

    Separately, has anyone seen Letitia James? Last I heard she was dressed like a pumpkin, walking down the streets of NYC – or was it Virginia – and mumbling something about daddy dearest.
39. reid says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:40

    @Gustopher: Campaigning on the right has become just a nasty soup of lies and propaganda meant to secure victory. Did they promise to do some bad things? Sure. Have they already exceeded those promises? Yes. Appeal to the worst emotions in your voters and smear your opponents, but don’t make it too nasty and deny the worst parts, like Trump did with Project 2025.

    In any case, I think I’m just agreeing with you that the voters failed. The GOP in 2024 was clearly full of lousy people.

    5
40. Rob1 says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:47

    Trump knows exactly what “quid pro quo” is all about. In fact, it is one of his “tools of trade.”

    Trump is leveraging executive power to bend a foreign government to aid in his defiance of the US judicial system. It’s what authoritarians do. Trump: authoritarianism, like “tariff” is beautiful word.

    US senator says El Salvador denied request to meet Kilmar Ábrego García

    Hollen said he offered to come back next week to meet with Ábrego García, but Ulloa “said he couldn’t promise that either”. The vice-president also said he could not arrange for Ábrego García’s family to speak to him by phone. When the senator asked if he could do so, Ulloa told him that the US embassy must make that request, Van Hollen said.

    “We have an unjust situation here. The Trump administration is lying about Ábrego García,” said Van Hollen, who said his constituent had been wrongly named as a member of the MS-13 criminal gang. The Trump administration has admitted that an “administrative error” led to the deportation of Ábrego García to his native country, despite an immigration judge granting him protected status in 2019.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/16/kilmar-abrego-garcia-chris-van-hollen

    Trump, the squid of “pro quo.”

    2
41. Jay L Gischer says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:48

    @Connor: If you think environmentalism was the primary reason for offshoring of manufacturing, you have been sold a quarter section of prime Florida real estate in the middle of the Everglades.

    The primary reason for manufacturing going offshore was money. M-O-N-E-Y. Environmentalism might have been a factor in that, it might have contributed as much as 10 percent. But the big reason is = cheaper labor, cheaper land, cheaper power. I’m sure there were more reasons.

    The reason the Appalachian coal mines are shut down is that they are no longer viable mines. They are full of water. Environmentalists didn’t do THAT either. That doesn’t stop the mine bosses from saying that, though, because why fess up to “we don’t actually give a crap about the communities we’ve exploited for the last hundred years, we just want to make money. This may immiserate you, be we’re out of here!”

    7
42. Matt Bernius says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:54

    Reupping something I wrote about how Trump Apologists Coped with the debacle that was last week for no reason at all:

    Cope 6: The dip until things get better

    Not buy the dip mind you–just ghost your online presence. There’s the subtle way–see for example Elon Musk’s lack of engagement on this topic other than starting a flame war with Peter Navaro. Or just fully disappear like our own resident apologists. Let me be clear that I’m not asking them to post defenses (because we know they already don’t have any).

    I realized that some folks hope they’ve given up. Based on previous history, I just can’t believe that. I expect that when things turn around, they will be back to pwn us libs. Here’s hoping they at least have the good grace to adopt new names to claim they never supported Trump or the tariffs and how things would have been economically worse under Harris.

    from: https://outsidethebeltway.com/different-forms-of-trump-apologist-copium/

    The only thing I got wrong was the “good grace” thing and looking back that was expecting way too much.

    6
43. Rob1 says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 15:55

    @Beth:

    Proof positive that humans preside at the top of the chain of organism sentience, having after millions of years of existence, entered into a species-wide heated debate/brawl over the meaning of its own genders, remaking entire political landscapes from the seismic repercussions. Now that’s what I call self awareness!

    >>> “HEY, you can’t be a man (or woman), because I’m a man (or woman) and I know what it’s like to be a man (or woman) and there are NO shades of gender, so, I’m going to choose fascism to enforce MY definition on our community so I can feel comfortable in my own skin! —er, genitalia. We simply cannot tolerate a “live-and-let-live” perspective! Men line up here. Women line up over there. End of story. And while we’re at it, slavery was good for the slaves, so let’s return these Confederate statues back to rightful prominence in our cultural adoration of symbolic embellishments. Also, no social safety nets or vaccines because that’s communism. Wanna debate some more? <<< /S

    Gender critical campaigners win at UK supreme court over definition of woman

    The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/16/critics-of-trans-rights-win-uk-supreme-court-case-over-definition-of-woman

    2
44. charontwo says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 17:08

    @Connor:

    My understanding

    Your understanding is shit. Educate yourself.

    “some background”

    “NYT“

    5
45. Bobert says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 17:42

    @Beth:
    Whether or not you believe in (a) God. I will pray to my God for your well being.
    Thank you for being true to yourself.
    bob

    4
46. al Ameda says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 18:00

    @Fortune:

    Going into business with a Chinese company is like going into business with the mob. They get to set the terms. Even with all the new tariffs it’s easier to trade with a US company, because they’re just trying to trade value for value.

    To be clear, it seems that you’re inadvertently saying that entering into a business deal with China is somewhat like negotiating a deal with Trump, in that, a negotiation is a binary proposition – one party sets all the terms and accept it or there will be no deal? To be sure, Trump talks that talk.

    The problem I see with with Trump is that he’s chaotic, volatile – he’s reliably unreliable. You have a deal, he abrogates it, and demands a new deal. This happens even though he negotiated the initial deal, declared it a success, then later says we’re being screwed by the deal. Say what you will but China does not seem erratic to me.

    7
47. Fortune says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 18:14

    @al Ameda: I wouldn’t want to go into business with Trump either. But I’m not talking about China being erratic. They’re systematic, they intend to take control over you, whether you’re a company or a nation.

    1
48. The Q says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 18:16

    Where are the feckless Dems?

    Congressional Dems should sponsor a bill boycotting and sanctioning El Salvador.

    Any country that trades with El Sal will not be allowed to do business in the US.

    We will embargo ALL TRADE with ES and vow to destroy their economy. Completely starve those fascist supporting bastards into submission to te point Butele is dragged through the streets a la Mussolini.

    Make no mistake, we may not have the votes now, but in 18 months we may very well.

    PS, I honestly believe I will see live to see the day Yrump is imprisoned in Leavenworth.

    As for Bondi? We accidentally deport her to El Sal and when the mistake is discovered….Oooppss!!!

    The only silver lining to the growing fascism is 2 can play the game. And when we inevitably gain power, we get EVEN.

    3
49. Kathy says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 19:56

    This sounds like self parody or something. The rapist is proposing paying undocumented immigrants a stipend, with tax dollars (what else) if they return to their countries of origin.

    Of course he never will. And I don’t mean he will offer it and then renege, but that this is one of the periodic oral farts that get published.

    But let’s examine the idea as it it were real and serious. One the one hand, there are undocumented immigrants who contribute to the US economy and pay taxes, and get little or nothing in the way of public benefits. On the other the felon proposes to give them a public benefit in exchange for them to not contribute to the US economy or pay taxes.

    World’s.Greatest.Negotiator.

    4
50. Steven L. Taylor says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 21:43

    @The Q:

    but in 18 months we may very well

    Even under the best possible scenario that I can envision, they won’t have a veto-proof majority.

    1
51. Michael Reynolds says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 23:05

    @Connor:
    By request of the owners of this site you are on ignore.

    I urge everyone else to consider doing the same. This house belongs to James and Steven. We are guests. They set the house rules.

    3
52. Eusebio says:
    Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 23:58

    When I wrote this yesterday…

    Speaking of taxes… Is congress really going to pass an extension of the 2017 tax cut as well as the trump pander cuts, and balloon the deficit at a time when the value of the dollar is falling and US borrowing costs are increasing?

    I didn’t really expect Republicans to reconsider tax cuts for the rich:

    Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, the chairman of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, kept the door open when he was asked whether he supports a higher top tax rate when the 37% level lapses to 39.6% after this year….

    At a town hall event in southeastern Iowa on Tuesday, longtime Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, was asked why Congress isn’t making billionaires pay more in taxes, a question that drew applause and cheers.

    “This might surprise you that the list of possibilities we have on our working sheet that the members of the Finance Committee, and I’m a member of that committee, are going to discuss is raising from 37% to 39.6% in that very group of people you talk about,” Grassley replied.

    But I’ll believe it when I see it.

    1
53. Michael Reynolds says:
    Thursday, 17 April 2025 at 00:18

    @Fortune:
    Dude, Trump is the mob. He’s nakedly corrupt, surrounded by incompetent boobs, and utterly unreliable. At very least if you’re going to run a good fascist oligarchy, you need to be reliable. You can’t just be making shit up. Like the 90 different tariff regimes. Or the humiliating negotiation with Iran. He’s made Xi look like a model of probity.

    3
54. Michael Reynolds says:
    Thursday, 17 April 2025 at 00:21

    @Michael Reynolds:
    Oh, and let’s not forget that Trump is now threatening to Taiwan Canada. Yeah, no one is hot to do business with the Great Negotiator, they aren’t in the cult, they live in reality and they know Trump’s a joke.

    3
55. Rob1 says:
    Thursday, 17 April 2025 at 00:52

    @Fortune:

    @al Ameda: I wouldn’t want to go into business with Trump either.

    But if you voted for him, OR in any way aided and abetted the rise of the reactionary Republican Party, then yes, you did “go into business” with Trump, and that stink will never wash off.

    5
56. Eusebio says:
    Thursday, 17 April 2025 at 00:59

    @The Q:

    We will embargo ALL TRADE with ES and vow to destroy their economy. Completely starve those fascist supporting bastards into submission…

    Change “ES” to “US” for a sentiment that I suspect has been expressed in a number of other countries.

    1
57. Jax says:
    Thursday, 17 April 2025 at 01:10

    Are we SURE Fortune isn’t a resurrected Pearce?

    1
58. Flat Earth Luddite says:
    Thursday, 17 April 2025 at 02:01

    Late breaking oh for flying flocks sake…..

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/taxes/trump-escalates-harvard-attacks-by-telling-irs-to-revoke-tax-exempt-status/ar-AA1D4wCU?ocid=socialshare&pc=EMMX01&cvid=9df31d1cdf924de0a8a43f7821411308&ei=4

    1