Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
·
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
·
75 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Vile ICE Actions in Oklahoma City against American Citizens
https://kfor.com/news/local/were-citizens-oklahoma-city-family-traumatized-after-ice-raids-home-but-they-werent-suspects/
Let the lawsuits begin.
Scrap qualified immunity.
The Secretary of Homeland Security needs to visit Oklahoma City and apologize.
I’m hearing awful Canadian Border stories (I live near the border). Blaine WA on I-5 – close to Vancouver BC – purchases down 50% (destroying city budget from the sales tax). Note I’m linking to FOX https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/blaine-canadian-traffic-layoffs
I expect First Nation/American Tribal lawsuits next in my area (folks East of the Mississippi mostly don’t understand Indian Country).
Maybe our Business Degree President forgot the basic accounting term of the value of “Good Will”
Trump is a great uniter – of other countries (LOL)
People are using “buy now, pay later” to buy groceries.
That can’t be good.
Texas measles update:
More than 660 measles cases reported in Texas. Track the spread here.
It does appear that the West Texas outbreak is waning but the potential rise in a populated city like El Paso is concerning.
………………………………………..
On the other hand, this idiot is still in charge and still talking.
In visit to Texas, RFK Jr. said autism, diabetes deserve more attention than measles
So we get whataboutism as an excuse. Look at Europe! We get deflection! No one said diabetes and autism are being ignored. Look at history! It used to be worse in the good old days!
I suspect this may be a trojan horse for the Texas Christian nationalists (there are elements to the Texas Republican Party that are totally anti-semitic).
Texas House approves antisemitism bill in response to pro-Palestinian protests
Like a lot of legislation the actual text contains a lot of chain references that the casual reader has to muddle through. I muddled and so here is the reference to the definition and examples:
Working definition of antisemitism
Meanwhile, in the rest of the world…
These guys are comedians.
Witkoff: Putin sees opportunity for the ‘first time in decades’ for a relationship recalibration
Then there is this:
Kremlin Rejects Kyiv’s Proposal for 30-Day Ceasefire
@Scott: Since every “statistic” he cites turns out to be bogus, there’s no Whataboutism or any pseudo-argument worth giving any credence.
@Richard Gardner: Thank you for posting. Everyone should read that article, and digest what it portends. Among other abuses…
Bah, humbug
https://www.wired.com/story/christmas-toys-trump-tariffs-china/
Why does Donald Trump hate Christmas?
More seriously, my daughter is going to take this opportunity to make the holiday much more food and family than gift giving. Less fodder for the landfill, I say.
I would not be at all surprised if 47 was distraught when he found out he couldn’t tariff the North Pole and get to brag about Santa kissing his ass.
comment check
SHOTS:
GDP contracted for the first time in years in 1st quarter from fallout of Trump’s massive new tariffs (CNN)
U.S. economy shrinks at 0.3% rate in first Trump-era GDP report (Axios)
US economy shrinks in Q1 of Trump 2.0 amid sweeping tariffs (The Guardian)
CHASER:
Trump dismisses backlash to tariffs, saying this is what people voted for (Yahoo Finance)
When he’s right, he’s right.
Vote for Trump — an incompetent, unqualified Hitlerian con artist, thug, and pervert who bankrupts casinos and who already destroyed livelihoods once with COVID incompetence — and you’ll get economic decline and fascist backsliding.
@Kingdaddy:
I’ve been hoping @JohnSF would drop by and give us a quick assessment. I feel as if I’ve been through this several times before. Lots of threats and posturing, a few rounds fired off, and return to simmer.
@Scott:
Gaza has allowed conservatives to have way too much fun pretending antisemitism is a liberal thing.
It’s definitely not easy to take a strong economy and achieve a GDP decrease of -0.3% in just one hundred days. Bravo! Well done, Mr. felon rapist. and you, too, Mr. nazi in chief. We’d be lost without you.
@gVOR10: This is probably an exaggeration but I love this headline:
Why the Antisemitism Awareness Act now has a religious liberty clause to protect ‘Jews killed Jesus’ statements
@Kingdaddy: I haven’t seen any mention of whether the lady who was raided has reported this to the local police or what the police may have done. It would seem a serious crime has been committed. They should be actively pursuing the perpetrators of an armed home invasion.
@Kathy: I would not normally blame the prez for economic problems in his first quarter. But this sure seems obviously Trump’s doing. As it seems everyone is reporting. (I haven’t looked it FOX yet.)
@gVOR10:
Big Brother would announce GDP climbed to only -0.3%.
Dumb Brother isn’t that smart.
Mister Bluster – I see you commented about me yesterday, replying to a 10 day old message without context and dropping most of the quote. You dropped the “if” then claimed I was speaking for God. Also I wasn’t threatening Michael Reynolds, I’m worried about him.
The economy, not just the stock market but the econ0my, shrank in Q1.
BTW, another classic dictator move is to engage in an “easy” war to distract the public’s attention when the economy goes south.
A really good example of this is Argentina’s invasion of the Falkland Islands in the early 80s. The junta figured the Brits wouldn’t care enough to do something about it. Granted the British response took a very long time, but it proved devastating.
So this may be the start of the push the rapist needs to invade Panama and take the canal.
It might go well, or it might be an Afghanistan type quagmire. Central and South American guerrillas have proven persistent and very capable.
@Jen: I paid for my groceries with my Discover card yesterday because of a cash back bonus on supermarket purchases. Then again, it was for the bonus, not because I was afraid of an NSF check or my debit card being refused.
Yeah, the future’s not looking as bright as before, no.
@Scott:
He seems to be a little slow on the uptake that part of the reason for vaccination is so we won’t have to worry so much about childhood diseases. I suspect it’s because it’s been a long time since he had sick kid worries–assuming he’s ever worried about children he fathered.
@Richard Gardner: Richard! I graduated from Blaine High School! (A long time ago. A long, long time ago.) Go Borderites! I’ve been wondering about things there these days.
I feel like maybe I recognize your name? Not sure though.
A different note. Living in Blaine, I knew a lot of Canadians. Some of whom were somewhat conservative, and I’m sure maybe voted Conservative a few times. Not a one of them would be happy about Trump, though. Not a single one.
Meantime, at the occupied White House
@Scott: You’re being completely unfair. Trump viewing Putin as a suzerain most certainly counts as a “relationship recalibration.”
ETA: And there’s nothing comedic about it, either. Sadly, they’re completely serious.
TIL: in the 19th century, hoboes were unionized and had an annual national convention
https://youtu.be/2doMXDFOXeM?si=tajfmaSuWzD-WRRo
Testing. This is very weird. I made three comments on this thread on my phone (Apple). My comments, one reply, and many other comments appear on my phone, the most recent at 12:23. (I see comment times are back.) On my iPad the last comment showing is Mr. Bluster at 9:28. Earlier than my comments. I’m posting this on a PC (WIN). It also shows comments only through 9:28.
As my phone, on which I commented, shows current comments, this is a test to see if a new comment here will rattle something loose.
ETA – it did. I now show up to date comments on this PC and the phone. But after refreshes the thread still ends at 9:28 on the iPad.
Test from iPad.
ETA – now all three devices show up to date. I’ll see if they continue to update or if I need to comment to drive an update.
@gVOR10:..weird…
Same glitch here on my iPhone and my MacBook Air running Google. Posting a comment check to the OTB site on one device will update the thread on that device but not the other. This has been occurring for several days.
@Mister Bluster:
I’m now quite sure “Fortune” is just good ole drill baby drill, (oil drilling stocks down 36% since inauguration) Drew/Cheswick/Guarneri/Cramp/Connor.
I have him on ignore.
Did the comments on this forum stop?
ETA: Guess not. A bunch appeared right after I posted the above.
@just nutha: I should have clarified that these are specific apps, like Klarna, that spread purchases out into installments–not credit cards. I too use a cash back card (I get bonus points for groceries) and then pay it off every month. Once I rack up sufficient credits, I use those for my periodic “big shops” where I’m buying things like the jumbo bottle of olive oil (which is now $30+) to offset the pricey stuff.
The CNBC piece specifically says these are BNPL loans, and states that they are “a popular alternative to credit cards” so it’s definitely a different thing–people are using installment loans to buy groceries, and 41% have said that they’ve been late for at least one payment.
Comments check
@Michael Reynolds:..ignore…
I am trying but sometimes I can’t help myself…
@CSK:..Did the comments on this forum stop?
Join the club. I have been posting Comment Check each time I reopen an existing OTB thread. Always shows multiple new comments.
I guess that the squirrels don’t have anything better to do.
ETA: Earlier I had to update the OTB Wednesday’s Forum thread on my iPhone and my MacBook Air one at a time. Just checked my iPhone and it has updated without my intervention. Maybe the Administrators are chasing off the squirrels.
@Michael Reynolds:
But..but Fortune claims to be worried about you.
I note that the markets are tanking some more today, especially tech stocks. Is there new bad news today, or is this just the new expected behavior?
@CSK:
He has a creepy, stalkery yet somehow masochistic obsession with me. Why? Because someone (not me for once) said I was smarter than him and he is, apparently, under the misapprehension that he’s terribly clever and thus can’t stand it. He seems moderately bright, at the high end of average, just nowhere near the gifted level he imagines himself qualified for.
Statistically it’s likely that I’m taller than he is, as well. I wonder if that haunts him, too? And I wear XL gloves. And an XXL hat, because of all the extra brains. That he lacks.
See what I mean about masochism? Why would anyone pick a verbal fight with a professional writer? He should go punch a professional boxer if it’s humiliation he wants. The funny thing is that by refusing to engage with him I can go right on making fun of him and he won’t even get the erotic BDSM thrill of direct contact.
@Michael Reynolds:
Hey I am the expert on masochism around here and don’t forget it!
@Michael Reynolds: I’ve probably replied to you six times total. You seem smarter than average and you’re able to disgree with people, which I respect. I feel bad for everyone on Outside the Beltway because they’re slipping into madness, but your rant about Saint Paul was sad, like some angry hurt teen, or bitter unreachable old man, not an adult with a reasoned opinion. It stuck with me.
How’s this sound:
Roasted chicken breast shredded or in small pieces, mixed with rice in a creamy bean sauce? Maybe with white corn mixed in.
On the side fries with gravy.
@Fortune:
Me and Michael were about the only regulars here who thought Trump was going to win last November.
OTOH, we’re both professional writers. Writers are considered some form of kooks by many if not most people.
…everyone on Outside the Beltway because they’re slipping into madness,..
…see you all in Hell!
Slippin’ Into Darkness
…everyone on Outside the Beltway because they’re slipping into madness,..
…see you all in Hell!
Slippin’ Into Darkness
…everyone on Outside the Beltway because they’re slipping into madness,..
…see you all in Hell!
Slippin’ Into Darkness
xyz123
The only way to stop Trump is if the US actually has a real recession that causes pain. IMO people here have way too much faith in the people of this country. A very large number of people will accept living in an authoritarian state so long as they are left alone and it is other people who the government goes after. Trump is doing what he said he would. Yes, it is somewhat shocking how the corruption is out in the open, but it doesn’t seem like people really care that much. Trump and Bessent openly gave insider info to investors, and the story seems to barely makes the news, and had no legs. The market was down almost 20% for a while, but it has recovered much of that loss and is down about 7% now.
My worst fear is that somehow we win the trade war. I don’t see how the EU would roll over for Trump, and I have to think that the US brand has been severely damaged, but who knows.
The above posts were composed on my MacBook Air. When I attempted to post the remarks they never appeared. Endless buffering.
However I can see them on my iPhone.
@Bill Jempty: Writers are considered some form of kooks by many if not most people.
Maybe actors are thought of as kooks, but writers? I don’t think most people think of writers as oddballs as a group. Bear mind that about 70% of Americans read less than 10 books a year. I would bet that far more Americans can name the top shows on Netflix than could name five writers.
@Bill Jempty: I was extremely skeptical that the country would vote for a woman, and mentioned a number of times that the campaign to elect Harris was too short/timeline too compressed.
I am also a writer, but it was my background in politics that made me think a Harris win, while desirable, was unlikely.
I just logged out of Chrome and logged back in and now I can see my posts.
Too late to delete the triple whammy.
@Bill Jempty:
@Michael Reynolds:
Masochist:
“Beat me!”
Sadist:
“Nope.”
@Kathy: Creamy bean sauce and gravy seem redundant.
@Michael Reynolds:
I disagree with you that Fortune is Drew, Guarnari, etc. under a different name. Drew et al. were straightforward in their complaints and disagreements. Fortune is far more slippery and evasive. Prove him/her wrong, and he/she changes the subject and moves the goalposts.
@Joe:
One’s for the chicken and the other for the fries.
@Lucysfootball:
Yes, who is the real kook! The writer of dung beetle fiction or the 1-2000* people who read that book of mine?
*- Before I went to traditional publishing, that book of mine sold almost 1,000 copies. It is enrolled in Kindle Select and based on its lifetime amount of pages read, maybe another thousand people read it.
@Fortune:
Slipping?
@JohnSF:
Speaking of slipping…
Trump gets an ‘F’ on his first 100 days from plurality of Americans, poll finds (PBS)
The next big elections will be held this November in Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Jersey, and New York.
The felon rapist is blaming Biden for the bad economy.
He’s wrong, which goes without saying*.
He’d be right if he said: If Biden had won, we wouldn’t be in this mess. He lost, therefore it’s his fault.
*The thing about things that go without saying is that someone inevitably says them.
@Jen: Harris had five fewer days than Mark Carney. A compressed timeline didn’t stop Canadians from voting sanely and humanely.
The fault is maybe not so much in our clock but in our selves.
The people around here who insisted Biden had to drop out in order for Democrats to win — knowing his black woman VP was the only possible replacement — were, of course, blinkered about American sexism. And about how the effect would be doubled for a black woman. The Harris Effect should be in the polling lexicon next to the Bradley Effect.
@Jen: Yeah. Klarna and the rest are a really problematical. But these “services” reflect a brokenness of our society being resistant to paying lower level employees wages adequate to the costs that survival demand. Larry Elder used to a talk about his dad working 3 jobs to keep the family supplied with the basics. Yeah, it was heroic. Yeah, the fact that his dad was black exacerbated the problems.
It’s not a Horatio Alter story. It’s the hallmark of a dysfunctional society.
@Kathy:
Just think of how much he can accomplish in the next 1,000!!!!
@Mister Bluster: Your MacBook has been drinkin’ good whiskey and slippin’ into darkness while laughing at the moon.
@Kathy: I’d go shredded if you’re doing a creamy sauce.
@Flat Earth Luddite:
He’ll have plenty more opportunities to blame Biden in that time.
Parents will immediately understand why this was a bad idea. Talked to my wife who was/is in St. Louis and because the book she’s pimping is about a marine mammal they set her up at the aquarium. (Says it’s gorgeous, BTW). They sat a hundred or so six year olds on concrete facing K, but directly behind her was the shark tank.
Gliding sharks. . . or lady talking about a book. She was basically transparent. It’s a metaphor. Or something.
@CSK:
I’ll bet the dollar I won betting that Bezos would fold.
@Rob1:..
Spill the Wine
We see your Rowling and raise you a DeNiro.
Judas Iscariot on fracking roller skates…
Israel has no duty to allow UN aid agency into Gaza, says US state department lawyer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/30/israel-has-no-duty-to-allow-un-aid-agency-into-gaza-says-us-state-department-lawyer?CMP=share_btn_url
I’m disappointed. Not surprised at Israel’s position, but by his presentation.
How about a duty to basic humanity? Or America’s role as the shining beacon on the hill? Or even the simple call to not be a rabid weasel, today?
I’d expect better from a lawyer, except he’s certainly channeling his boss’s gift of always punching down.
@becca: “I would not be at all surprised if 47 was distraught when he found out he couldn’t tariff the North Pole and get to brag about Santa kissing his ass.”
For those familiar with the movie Scrooged, I suspect the presence of Lee Majors probably scared Trump off . . . 🙂
@Mister Bluster: Well, there I was…
@CSK:
You are correct. I am not Fortune. Maybe I should read some of his/her comments to understand what all the hullabaloo is about. But I’ve become accustomed to the wild speculation, ignorance and falsities here. This is a weird place. But you get what you get when I comment. Agree, disagree – and that’s fine – but I try to be direct.
Just a case in point. I have seen much commentary about the GDP report, but its just headline “analysis,” and an opportunity to repeat ad nauseum the Trump-is-stupid commentary. Maybe it makes people feel better to do so.
A better set of observations on the report, in my opinion would be:
a) stop with the short term, point estimate, commentary on economics. By its very nature economic statistics need to be interpreted over a span of time. But selective and point estimate “analysis” seems popular here………….if it can be used for Republican or Trump bashing. Its ech chamber stuff.
b) By now any reasonably informed person knows that the -.3% was mostly driven by import/export accounting, which was an event, not a trend. Most estimates I have seen show a net 3% GDP decline due to this. Said another way, if smoothed we would first be talking a 2.7% Q1.
c) Next, despite all the pearl clutching about decimating or “slashing” government the GDP number is estimated to be reduced by .3% due to government expenditure decline. So now we are at 2.4%. Not bad.
d) I didn’t see anyone here put the consumption expenditure number in perspective: always weaker in Q1 as opposed to Q4 for obvious reasons.
e) nor did anyone bother to note the 20%+ increase in private investment, a huge number, and indicative of perceived future prospects…………and of course the whole point of the tariffs – stop playing patsy to other’s mercantilist policies and repatriate the US production footprint.
f ) IMHO any commenter here who wanted to gain some credibility as not just a rabid partisan shrieking “I hate Trump” would have focused on something different. The inflation numbers were not tame. Yet Trump is calling on Powell to lower rates. I think Trump is wrong.
Only time will tell how all this shakes out. I’ve been saying that for quite awhile. Taking last Friday’s economic numbers and annualizing doesn’t quite cut it. What does “time” mean? Certainly all of Q2; perhaps into 3. Then we will see if I’m right or wrong.
In the mean time, I can always get belly laughs from commentary and, ahem, “analysis” such as Daryl’s (and others). Its Beavis and Butthead level, but it entertains.