Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, August 20, 2025
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47 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
The Texas farce continues:
Rep. Nicole Collier spends night on Texas House floor after refusing police escort
Nicole Collier, Texas lawmaker who slept at statehouse, files lawsuit challenging police escorts
If I was there, I would probably be tempted to leave a dookey on the Speaker’s chair.
Or if I was escorted by a DPS officer, I would invite him to have dinner with my family and me. They must hate their job.
The STUPID…make it stop.
Trump has insisted on painting his wall black.
The wall is made of Corten steel which is DESIGNED TO RUST as the rust forms a protective barrier. Corten will not hold paint.
Seriously…these people are so incompetent.
Why do I have to log in every few days??? Is this common or am I just lucky?
US destroyers head toward Venezuela as Trump aims to pressure cartels
Both Mexico and Canada are accused of letting fentanyl and other opiates into the country. Here is my question. Why does Mexico and Canada have a much lower opiate drug problem (per capita) than the United States?
@Daryl: It’s been happening to me at about once a week, I think. At least it autofills my username and password!
@Daryl: Yeah, every day is about right for me.
For instance, just now. I write the comment, notice I’m not logged in, copy the comment with Ctl-C, log in, paste the comment.
Then in this case, add some more.
@Daryl:
My take on this, that stuff about him getting into heaven, and his general vibe from the Alaska stuff is worsening dementia. This all really reminds me of when my grandpa jumped up one night and hallucinated that he was back in the Navy during WWII. That was the first time I had to get him hospitalized because I couldn’t help him and he was getting agitated. I’d put money on Trump taking a really nasty fall sometime in the next couple weeks or months. If it’s months, it won’t be many.
Here’s a report on how bad it is for Trans people in the UK. That should open a PDF.
The short version of what is happening here is that the UK Supreme Court ruled that on one hand, Trans people do not have any rights and on the other, have the right to be free from discrimination. It is 100% warmed over separate but equal drivel. The practical aspect of it has been to attempt to drive Trans people out of public life.
Compare “For Women Scotland” with “Plessy v. Ferguson“.
If you’re going to try and down play that, understand that this has already happened to me. Right after the FWS judgment came down, I went to a club here in London, E1. I was freaked out and asked security which toilet I should use. I was told in no uncertain terms that I had to use the men’s toilet. I held it as long as I could and when I finally went to pee the toilet attendant told me that I couldn’t because all the sit down toilets were actively overflowing. I can’t use a urinal. I took the chance that I would get thrown out and used the women’s toilet.
I’m now so freaked out that I don’t want to go out anymore. Whenever I go out I refuse to use the toilet unless I absolutely have to AND I have my partner to protect me. It’s going to get worse. The Trans community here is fully expecting a bathroom/public life ban that would make the GOP swoon. Starmer is fully on board with that.
I have to log in a couple times a day. I think it has to do with the VPN I’m using (Surfshark). Been having problems with Google search also. Minor issues.
@Daryl:
Come now. They may have figured out ladders, but surely oven mitts are beyond their level of technology.
Meantime, over Japan a meteor lit up the night sky with a most inaccurate headline.
It’s about policy, stupid! (plus demographic shifts)
Gerrymandering is about bad policy. Trump and the Republicans cannot win on a level playing field, so they have to tilt the elections in their favor, while “flooding the media zone” with distortion and disinformation.
Select stats from the recent Pew survey on Trump’s (dis)approval ratings. (*)
53% to 27%
(*) There’s plenty of wordsmithery in Pew’s own reporting for Trump’s minders to extract a rosy picture with which to serve up to their boss alongside his Big Mac and fries. For example the “narrow majority” phrasing in the first example above is generally speaking correct, but softens the ensuing disfavorability gap of a whopping 36 points!!! The posters are not immune to their own spin, especially in the face of a raging narcissist with masked goon squads roaming the country. Our society is shifting its posture in response. Notice how quickly big media and corporate America have changed their tune in a mere 6 months.
Gerrymandering — it’s because the Republicans can’t defend their antisocial agenda.
@Daryl:
Dude, just let stupid do stupid. Failure is part of our learning process. Either that, or the planet is rid of us, and the cockroaches get their shot.
@Beth:
For the people who would like us to dismiss the significance of transgender in our society —-
The U.S. and other NATO countries are discussing security guarantees that could accompany a peace agreement for Ukraine. Per NBC News:
But I wouldn’t make too much of trump’s ramblings on Fox & Friends yesterday, when he said the U.S. is willing to help, “probably…by air.” Enforcing a no-fly zone would be an extreme and perhaps insane measure that I can’t see coming out of just being probably willing to help. Unless, that is, you consider the drone warfare already developing in the skies over Ukraine to be a sort-of no-fly zone–one where Ukrainian drones, some using U.S. companies’ technology, seek to destroy Russian drones assisted by Chinese technology.
@Rob1:
Yet none of that shows up in the horse race polls. Nate has Trump underwater by 8 points, which is right where it’s been since April, with fluctuations to the upside much more than the down. I think these numbers are people who are disappointed by some of Trump’s actions, but would still vote for him tomorrow.
@Eusebio:
Porting this from yesterday:
TL;DR: If you look with a cold eye at the Ukraine war, it’s been a good thing for the US. Putting boots on the ground (or in the sky) changes things for the worse, from the US strategic perspective.
@Kathy:
Inaccurate headlines are the norm for stories involving science, technology, etc., etc., etc. But in this case, I have no problem with fireball, or bright, or moon, or Japan!
@Rob1:
Unfortunately that’s still less than 1% of the population. Other minorities: Black ~13%, Gay/Lesbian ~3 1/2 percent, Latino ~20%, Asians 7-8%. There is not a single city, county or state where the trans vote matters. The only trans political force is trans allies, which is why I’ve been begging trans folks to get off the sports issue because it alienates a vast number of allies.
The trans movement has lost everything it gained in the last decade and more. They need a reboot and a process of rebuilding alliances. It’s going to take at least a decade to get back to where we were.
@Michael Reynolds: While the sports issue is a dumb as the rest of the anti-trans stuff, I stayed away from it during the last cycle, because I thought the push to outlaw gender-affirming care for minors was more alarming, and an easier sell.
So I basically agree.
AND, I spent 20 years learning/teaching ju-jitsu. One of the core ideas of JJ is “when pushed, pull” or perhaps “when pushed-turn”.
Which is in contrast to the normal human thing to do, which is “when pushed, oppose” or more graphically, “when pushed, push back”. It took me a lot of work to shut down that reflex, and most of the other students I saw had a similar amount of work to do to overcome it. It was very much worth that work, and I would recommend it to anyone.
AND, I try not to feed any anger I might have over people doing a normal people thing.
@Michael Reynolds:
That may be true from a US perspective.
It is not from a European one.
Ending Russian attempts to return Ukraine to the dominion of Moscow, under Putin, or under any sucessor who shares his basic “russkiy mir” worldview and resentment, will require some sort of security guarantees.
Though guarantees from the US alone, at this point, would be worth little or nothing.
@Daryl: FWIW, I frequently have to re-login.
(Indeed, I had to do so to post this comment!!)
Hmmm,
wrote a long comment to say that @Michael Reynolds: is right. We need to give up and make ourselves small. I’m doing my part.
Hopefully it got grabbed by moderation as the site got wonky. But don’t worry about it. I’m sorry.
ETA: Having given it a bit of thought, Dr. Taylor or Matt, could you please delete my comment from today at 10:06 and this one.
Sorry to be a bother.
@Beth:
Pretty sure I did not say give up. A tactical withdrawal – when you can’t hold the line, you fall back to a more defensible position. Many wars have been won by generals who pulled back, and many wars lost by generals who did not. Mao took a beating, pulled back, went on to a successful career as a mass murderer. Had Mao stayed and fought the KMT to the death, that would have been giving up.
@JohnSF:
Well, Putin’s war has forced Europe to start getting serious about defense, so that’s a good thing. No Russian leader is likely to give up entirely on Ukraine, the Russians see it as a buffer that buys them time when the Germans invade again. As you know, they are somewhat paranoid on that score. So Europe needs to re-arm and re-train and wean themselves from their untrustworthy American ‘friends.’
France, Germany, Britain, Poland and Italy represent 14 trillion USD in GDP, with a combined population just in those five countries roughly equal to the US. Europe has the money, the warm bodies, and the tech. I’d argue that long term, if Europe can rally, this war will have been good for them, too. Beat Putin in Ukraine so you don’t have to fight him in Estonia or Poland.
@Beth: @Michael Reynolds
Maybe it was too much too soon. Trans community may benefit from broadening its support base over time without the loud/proud approach. But our entire national dialogue these days is “over backyard fences loudly.” It makes for compelling news. Madison Ave loves it — they’ll sell anything to anybody, including the destruction of civil democracy. It’s easy to get drowned out. Conservatives ovwewhelmingly control media channels. The cash flow funnels right back into revising American society. Fun and profits! Hard to beat combo.
But I lean towards Jay Gischer above — ju jitsu.
@Michael Reynolds: 2.3 million mobilized a significant workforce for change. Add in sympathetic family and friends.
@Beth: I’m stuck with the feeling that everything going on in the US — the slide into fascism, random tariffs wrecking the economy, the assault on wind farms, ethnic cleansing, etc. — is not a big event that will change America forever, but rather the prelude to a big event.
The big event will be the chaos that erupts when the cult of personality no longer has that personality to cult around.
I’m a little tired of waiting. Also, it would be nice if Biden got to go to that funeral.
@Eusebio:
Trump promise plus guarantees!!!
Everyone knows that’s worth zilch. I hope Zelenskyy only allows NATO-EU “security guarantees” to be part of his calculus.
@Daryl: Who is going to do the painting? ICE has put everyone doing that work into the Alligator Alcatraz.
@Beth:
You need to do no such thing. At the very least, you need to get a great amount of enjoyment out seeing the people who voted for an incompetent, deranged pedophile because of 10 trans athletes pay higher prices due to tarriffs, lose their jobs and businesses over tarriffs, lose their healthcare, and lose their global reputation. You need to keep pointing out that trans people are not to blame for lack of affordable housing and healthcare. You need to point, laugh, and loudly say “I told you so” at those who voted for their own suffering Because Trans Woke Cat Eating Haitian Migrants.
The Lia Thomas bit was absurd, but it didn’t prompt black and gay voters to pick a fascist, did it? Trans athletes are not responsible for sexism, racism, homophobia, and folks’ political stupidity. They just want an excuse, rather than admit and reckon with their selfishness and their moral and ethical deficits. Sorry but no.
@Michael Reynolds:
Only some in MAGA-Russia believes that Germany would mount a re-invasion. MAGA-Russia is facile as MAGA-USA. The Putin contingent has been pretty clear that revanchist conquest and imperialism fever dreams are driving them. In this, MAGA-USA is cheering on the conquest of Greenland and Canada, and the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico. It’s a charismatic narcissistic personality disorder thing.
That’s the hope (at least it’s mine). But Russia has China and apparently India as well. Then there’s BRICS an a smattering of others who would support Russia. The battle lines are drawn: autocracy vs liberal democracy.
Almost everywhere and almost always, login credentials are held in cookies. Cookies may disappear — perhaps during a browser’s sweep of what it deems is out-of-date information, or to recover space. Cookies may contain information like your IP address that become invalid when your address changes. Many systems put a “good until” timestamp in the cookie data. Sometimes the cookie exists and is completely valid, but the server decides it’s time to require a new login based on server-side data.
Slashdot will keep me logged in for a year or more. Facebook for months. Lawyers, Guns & Money for weeks. OTB currently usually keeps me logged in for a couple of days at a time. My bank, ten minutes without activity.
@Eusebio:
I’ve never seen the Moon turn the night sky blue.
@Michael Reynolds: The anti-trans hate was deliberately manufactured — almost certainly with focus groups, going over one attack after another. It wasn’t that long ago that South Carolina was facing a massive boycott because of their bathroom bill, and not that long before that when most people didn’t think much about trans people at all.
I don’t know that giving into manufactured hate, even tactically, would ever help. It’s not fighting a war, it’s fighting a propaganda machine poisoning people’s minds with hate. Like a goldfish, the hate will grow to take up the available space.*
I think Democrats just ignoring the sports issue as much as possible, and barely pushing back when they can’t, has done incredible damage. It simultaneously says that discriminating against trans people is fine in some circumstances, and that trans folk are a massive issue.
Sort of the inverse of George W. Bush’s “flypaper theory” — if you don’t fight them over there, you will fight them over here.
And over here is bathroom bills designed to remove trans folks from public life, medical care for minors, medical care for adults…
But I also think that we collectively — right here in this comment section, everyone on some form of the left, most everyone in America, and across the world — have no idea of how to fight against an organized disinformation campaign that has an air of legitimacy.
We have plenty of examples to warn of how dangerous it is, but I can’t think of any examples off the top of my head that show how to deal with it once it takes hold.
Also what @DK said.
——
*: I am very proud of this goldfish analogy. Is it a good analogy? No, but I’m proud of it anyway.
@Kathy: Did it turn it blue to the human eye, or just for cameras?
Pictures of the northern lights are often way more dramatic than what you can see. A few months ago (years?*), when the aurora extended down towards the northern US, I remember going outside and walking around with my cell phone camera pointed at the sky just to see the aurora. I think part of that was light pollution, but a large part is simply that the human eye isn’t as good.
——
*: time has no meaning for me.
@Eusebio:
Pffft. Ukranians must be alternately laughing and crying at the fecklessness of their alleged allies. We are patronizing these warriors with the same obviously-meaningless security guarantees given in Budapest in 1994, when the UK, France, and the US promised to protect Ukraine from potential abrogation of its territorial integrity, in exchange for Ukraine giving up control of its nuclear weapons to Russia.
Only for Obama, Merkel, Cameron, Trudeau, Holland et al to do a fat lot of nothing when an unhinged Putin invaded Ukraine anyway in 2014. Previewing the weak, namby pamby foot dragging from Biden, Scholz, Johnson, Trudeau, and Macron when Putin later tried to decapitate Ukraine via Kyiv — an underwhelming response that enabled the sorry state of affairs seen today.
Poor Ukraine. A model of Churchillian strength for modern times, stymied first by terrified monkeys, and now this slobbering fool Trump. Smdh. They made the most of what the democratic West gave them, which was hardly anything.
@Jax: Interesting to hear that others see this too.
I manage another website on WordPress, so I figured my credentials were getting mixed up.
@Scott:
If this is a rhetorical question, then I would say it’s because they have a better attitude and think of it less as an opiate problem and more as an opiate opportunity.
If it’s a genuine question, it largely starts with too many people being given too much OxyContin for too long — it’s highly addictive!* — and that creating a market for an extralegal alternative when the prescriptions finally run out. And that creates an easily available supply.
——
* just like Slurm.
@Michael Reynolds:
Indeed Europe has the power potential to make Russia look like a rounding error.
And statements regarding it’s previous lack of seriousness are sometimes a bit exagerrated.
Expenditure, even before the recent uplift, of $450 bn pa on defence (higher than Chiina, till its recent increases) is non-trivial.
As is a combined military manpower (excluding Turkey) of 1,650,000
Euro-NATO actually fields more troops, MBT, howitzers, jet fighters, submarines, and frigates, than the US.
Its major problem is political.
The absence of a continental defence authority with the power to lever all the various nations concened to end, or at least reduce, the massive inefficiency costs of separate procurement systems etc.
And the prefence of some countries for lower “off the shelf” costs, and diplomatic brownie points in DC, for buying American.
See the German reluctance to include NASAMS in SkyShield, ftlog.
Similarly, the structure of NATO has made that the default route for most European operational planning and collaboration, and therefore placed Americans at the centre of the system, given the nature of the SHAPE/SACEUR command structure.
Also, the US assets plugged into that, re intelligemce, communications, logistics and so on.
It has simply been easier for that to dependency to be accepted as not just the deafulat, but as natural
Except by France, of course.
It’s true the Trump has awakened a lot of Euprean leaders and “senior figures” generally to the perils of dependency on the undependable.
But how far this has permeated the general public, and politicians who depend on their votes, is another matter.
More defence spending, yes, bur surely not at the expense of my taxes, my prefrerred spending programs, my standard of living?
“Oh Lord, make me strategically autonomous. But not yet”
The European problem is we are running perilously short of time, and are still short on options
Which is why the European leadership were in Washingto, engaged in the ignoble art of Trump-wheedling, when likely evver single one would dearly love to tell him to take his entire dimwitted, vulgar, kayfabe barking, grifting, tariff-mongering, “lets make a deal”, “I’m a genius schtick” and shove it up up his arse.
But not yet.
Patience, Grasshopper.
Let the Rheinmettall forges burn on.
The day will come …
@Michael Reynolds:
Tactical withdrawal to what? You’re suggesting that the GOP and UK TERFs would be satisfied if trans people were kept out of sports. You’re about to get your wish. The UK is about to enact a full sports ban along with a full bathroom ban plus a ban on trans people in other gendered spaces. And that’s not going to be enough. The M&S bra fitting row proves that.
So yes. I’m agreeing with you. I’m giving up. I can’t even get two men with trans children to agree that they should be fighting for their own children. I have expressed this in multiple different ways, multiple different times. I failed miserably. So, I agree with you. I’m giving up and excluding myself from public life. You wanna buy some club tickets I can’t use because I can’t use the bathroom?
@DK:
I am 47 years old. I spent 40 of those years working my ass off to be the good little white boy society wanted. I went to the schools that tortured me. I basically only dated women because I was terrified that every one would leave if I dated a man (I now know I was right). I went to college, law school. Took on a ton of debt for it that I can’t repay. Married a woman had kids and I was miserable and dissociated the entire time. I transitioned and got 6ish good years. More than most get. Dayenu or some shit. But I’ll never get back what I lost. I can’t even look at my wedding pictures.
I sometimes try and measure myself up against black people in general that lived during Jim Crow or black women now and I find myself wanting. What I thought was strength was just the hollow nothingness of my life. I had 6ish good years and now that’s over because some Confederate assholes convinced some idiots that the antebellum South was a model of good governance and society.
I don’t have it in me to fight. Especially when people that should know better tell me I should give up. So, I give up.
@Beth:
That’s a little unfair. Both to them and to yourself. They disagree with you on how to fight rather than whether to fight.
What are other trans folk in the UK doing? On this side of the world, we only really hear about what the UK government is doing, and not how trans folks are living with it and pushing back against it.
How well connected to the trans activist community are you? I can’t really say that you should be connecting and organizing and taking over bathrooms and having a shit-in, or whatever, as I’m really just sitting on my ass here waiting for Trump to die, but… I’m not convinced you’re doing the right amount for you. Or whatever you want to be doing and what you’re capable of doing healthwise don’t match.
Sitting on my ass is clearly one of my core competencies (my shrink calls it “depression”), but it doesn’t seem like you would be happy with it.
If they’re setting up a shit-in, someone has to make the bran muffins. Or documenting what the resistance to these unjust laws looks like.
I need to log back in when I haven’t visited the blog in a while. This means when I use a phone to access it, rather than the home or work PCs.
On related matters, these past few days I’ve been getting errors accessing the blog. Sometimes timeout, sometime just the browser telling me the site cannot be reached. This happens over several different WiFi connections (home, Costco, supermarkets, Starbucks, etc.)
Sometimes it comes back on a little bit later, sometimes a long time later.
By the way, I think the absolute most effective thing a person can do to advance trans rights is to show up. To tell their story. Which @Beth has done here in the most convincing and persuasive way.
I want to keep hearing those stories. I want to keep telling those stories. I want to make them more public and visible. I don’t really have a clear idea how, but I am gonna keep looking.
The fundamental problem we have is that so many people have some idea in their head about what a trans person is – you know, someone that murders women, skins them, and wears their skins (That was a movie!), or someone who wants to cheat at sports – that is wildly different from what trans people are actually like, and what their experiences are actually like.
What makes it more difficult is that the life of an average trans person is about as exciting as the life of average cis person. Which is to say, not very exciting.
I have one crazy idea. I do a lot of computer gaming (during which I have met a few trans women!). I was thinking that I might try and do a stream where I play a game with someone and talk a bit about their life and their experiences. Put it on Twitch or something.
Would that work? Have I ever run a Twitch stream before? Does anyone want to do this? Does anyone want to watch this? I mean, I’m funny. That’s for sure.
So that’s something.
My two primary internet connections are the Personal Hotspot on my iPhone that I use at home and the free wi-fi connection at Panera. Yesterday and today I have received “site cannot be reached” “server stopped responding” error messages when attempting to log on to OTB on both these connections intermittently. To assuage my frustration I turn to cat videos on You Tube.
@Beth:
I don’t blame you, but I didn’t suggest we “fight,” at least not in the conventional sense of the word. I suggested we enjoy our lives and let these people get what they voted for.
If you’re a festival chick you should know where to go for that, no? One thing about queer people, is we’re going rave, dance, and/or kiki no matter what, in good times and in dark times. The blacks and the alphabet people have this in common. I mean, really, 2025 is child’s play, compared to what our people have survived.
@Gustopher:
Exactly. Trans allies want to fight for you, Beth. We are trying to fight for you. But we cannot defend on the athletics issue, because you’re just wrong. People with male bodies should not be engaging in sports with people who have female bodies. Unless it’s archery or something, but not rugby or boxing. It is not a winnable position, and when you insist on your allies fighting for losing positions you lose your allies. And when you lose your allies you’ve got eight tenths of a percent of the votes.
Admit defeat on athletics. And find a compromise formula on minors. Those are the two killer issues, and neither is a must-win. You, Beth, in your life, do not need trans females to play soccer. You just don’t. It has nothing to do with your life. The minors issue is more complicated, and I don’t have the magic formula. But in any issue, FFS, don’t pick fights with parents over parental rights. You won’t win. And again, it has nothing to do with you. You need to be able to pee. You need to be able to show ID. You need protections in the workplace. You need civil rights, you don’t need the rest of society to use the singular, ‘they.’
The trans movement lacks leadership, and it lacks ideological definition. The movement’s parameters have been set by whoever takes the most extreme position on Twitter. That’s how you end up buried by the sports issue, the most extreme position on minors and impolitic belligerence. Your allies want to fight for you, but not if you insist they beat their heads against a brick wall over something you don’t even fucking need.
@Rob1:
Which side is the US on?