Wednesday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Wednesday, November 12, 2025
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32 comments
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About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
Not a huge number of veterans but still…
Hundreds of veterans protest Trump policies at Veterans Day rally in Washington
Israel attacked Palestinian water sources over 250 times in five years, data reveals
Dozens of Israeli settlers launch arson attack in West Bank as attacks against Palestinians surge
Apparently there is a lot of provisions that are tucked in and being discovered.
Bill to reopen government shuts down hemp industry
Older Texans among those facing the largest price hikes for Affordable Care Act insurance
On our way to becoming a third world country.
The number of whooping cough cases in Texas is the highest it’s been in 11 years
Governor Glenn Youngkin submits Virginia’s application for $1 billion in Federal funding to transform rural healthcare
VA 1B Rural HC
Love how Youngkin gives us all $400 tax rebates right before election, then requests 1B in Federal money for rural healthcare, of which none is for actual insurance. While his own party works to weaken and eliminate plans for many rural folks…
Uh, okay. How about securing affordable health insurance 1st. SMH
@Scott: That hemp ban, if it makes it, will kill dozens of vape shops here in west Tennessee. They are everywhere and lots are maga men.
The shop we went to pick up some gummies is run by an apparent former gop voter. He was railing about the state gop and how he thought they were for business and against regulation! He was openly armed with a gun on his hip. I wouldn’t want to be in his radar. Btw, this was before the federal shutdown.
This prohibition was sneaked in by McConnell, I’m sure at the behest of Kentucky spirits industry since this has been his personal mission for several years. He just really dgaf about his legacy, does he?
For some reason I thought up this scene:
Trusted Talleyrand-type advisor: You know, prediction markets are selling your death at the hands of a mob at 99 cents.
Embattled and unnamed Orange Usurper: You’re joking, right?
Talleyrand-type: I bought ten thousand shares of hung from a lamppost by his own intestines for one cent each.
The pretty lights in the night sky visible over places that normally don’t get them, are a result of the Sun throwing pieces of its atmosphere in our direction.
If you see the Moon grow too bright, that really should worry you. And I mean as in find high ground and gather all the food and fuel you can, and do it fast.
Just curious, have you received your $2,000 tariff dividend check yet?
Today’s History Lesson:
I drove by this site in 1973 to get to Harrisburg from Carbondale twice a week to attend telephone cable splicing school. I lived in Bloody Williamson County in Colp, Illinois in 1973 and in Carterville 1978-’85.
Charlie Birger hung in Benton, Illinois April 19, 1928.
@Daryl: I am still waiting for my check from Soros, and my DOGE rebate. Harrumph.
@Daryl:..$2,000 tariff dividend…
No. And the price of green beans, orange juice, yogurt, radishes, cookies and cheese is higher than when Supreme Leader Kim Jong Trump was enthroned January 2025.
Chump is sending the $2000 to Make Argentina Great Again.
So as not to go off topic in Steven’s post on congressional leadership… He brings up the notion that a coach is great if his play works, and a doofus if it doesn’t.
Back in the mid-late 2010s, there was much chatter about how useful punts are in NFL play. This argument was made by economists(!), and showed the yardage gained was small overall, not much more, or even less, than attempting to convert on 4th down.
If this is so, and I don’t question the numbers, then you should never punt on 4th down in order to reach the expected yardage gains*. So, 4th and 25 on your 1 yard line, go for it!
That’s what gets omitted from statistics. What the circumstances and consequences are.
Around that time, there was a controversial 4 and long(ish) in a Pats vs Colts game, when Manning ran the Colts’ offense, rather deep in New England territory. Bellichick decided to go fo it. So, they turned over the ball on downs, and Indianapolis scored in their offensive series.
That was a bad call, regardless of the statistics. It might have been a good call against a lesser team with an average rather than an elite QB. Against the Manning Colts, it was a bad call.
*It’s a common misunderstanding with novice gamblers that a positive expectation game (there are a few, or there were), means you never lose. I played a lot at a 101% return videopoker nickel machine in Vegas over several trips. You still lose more often than you win, but if you play long enough you’ll hit the jackpots (this machine had two: four deuces and natural royal flush) and come ahead overall in the end.
This also means some days you’ll lose all your stake, and either buy in again or go drown your sorrows in “free” drinks. Other days you’ll wait impatiently for the $125 hand pay for 4 deuces.
Obama Veterans Greeting Reminder that class, respect and character still does exist in America
@Scott:
The hemp THC ban was being debated in public over a week ago, but was overshadowed by the government shutdown issues. Rand Paul was naturally a “no” on the temporary funding bill because he’s generally opposed to modern levels of government funding, but he was also a vocal opponent of provisions that were being crafted to ban hemp THC products.
@Kathy:
If true, they’re not using statistics properly.
When I was getting an MA in public policy, I was waived out of the statistics requirement. I was asked to comment on the syllabus for the class, though. I tried to offer specific constructive criticism. But I was really tempted to state the obvious: you’re teaching them just enough to do a lot of damage by misusing the tools.
Regarding the Kaine-Britt agreement that was a key to getting 60 votes on the temporary budget bill, these are the concessions that the two senators reportedly extracted from the rest of the Republican conference and the white house:
1. Reverse the administration’s layoffs of federal workers during the shutdown and provide back pay.
2. No layoffs (RIFs) through January 30, when the temporary budget bill expires.
I feel the need to point out that the shutdown layoffs weren’t legal–at least one lower court has ruled thusly so far. And also that it takes time to do a RIF according to the law, so having to wait until after January 30 to execute one would have very little effect.
@Michael Cain:
Maybe so. I didn’t read the studies, just the commentary on them, and some message board discussions. I was left with the impression of the utility of yards gained per failed offensive series (failed: not ending in a score) as the metric that really matters.
Perhaps I’m simplistic, and think the metric that matters is points ahead of the other team by the end of the game.
One of my Vegas acquaintances does gaming math for a living. He claims one should serenely take the loss provided the bet was the correct, highest expected value. And yet, he gets furious when his bridge-jumper bets against safeties in the Super Bowl don’t hit.
The odds of a safety in any game are very low, so a bet that there won’t be a safety in any given game, including the Super Bowl, pays very little. It’s a solid bet, but now and then you lose.
@Kathy:
Since fourth-down conversion attempts are expected much more than they were years ago, they don’t carry as much reputational risk for the coaches calling them. Of course it depends on the situation, and changes to the kicking game over the years have affected the fourth down call. Placekickers can kick longer field goals more reliably, and punters can often place the ball out of bounds or to be downed by their team inside the five. It used to be uncommon to see a punt received inside the ten, but now we see even fair catches inside the ten to avoid the possibility of a punt downed inside the two.
An interesting play this week was the Patriots’ first-and-ten inside the two against the Buccaneers with less than two minutes left in the first half. It looked for all the world to see like the Patriots QB intentionally dove forward for no gain to waste a down and eat up the clock, although the team wouldn’t later say that was the call. They did end up scoring on a fourth-down pass play, leaving no time before the half for the Bucs to score, so okay.
@Eusebio:
I do remember when a 40 yard field goal was a long shot.
I’m not against quantifying skills and players and using that knowledge to build a team. But I would warn that this, too, is still partly guesswork and a risk. And as all risks, they won’t always pay off.
On other matters, the solar weather giving us aurora borealis farther south than usual, also caused Lex Bezos’ launch to be scrubbed. No new launch date has been set last I checked.
And Christmas sale season officially kicks off this weekend, with the 15th consecutive Good Weekend sale. It’s like the Black Friday sale, but without the tradition to justify it. One needs be careful that the tantalizing offers don’t offer higher or equal actual prices than before the sale season.
Or, if they do, that additional rebates or extras might make it worthwhile.
Me, I’ve been mulling over a food processor. I’m not sure I need one. What I really want is a larger, dedicated air fryer. I find that harder to justify, as the combo air fryer instant pot I have works well enough.
In any case, the sales to clear inventory after New Year’s tend to offer real discounts.
@Kathy:
Forget where I saw the line – we’ll give up the War on Christmas when Christmas abandons it’s occupation of November. I type this with a Starbucks Christmas cup beside me.
@Kathy:
Me too. I also remember when PGA Tour’s longest drivers hit balls off the tee 260 or more yards. Now there are guys hitting it 350 yards.
Kathy- I have discovered how to be called the best cook in the world. I had the grandkids last night. We made dumplings, shrimp fried rice and a cake. They did almost all of the work and did a good job. When it came time to have the cake we made chocolate whipped cream. Tasting the chocolate whipped cream they declared me best cook in the world. (Like a good grandparent I turned my head the other way as they kept sneaking back to the bowl to steal a spoonful.) Anyway, keep experimenting but now you know the true pathway to greatness (in the eyes of a 6 year old.)
Steve
If the Felon hadn’t entered his lame duck phase a week ago Tuesday, he did today. House R have dumped 23,000 pages of Epstein docs on the public and did so a few hours after Dems released damning emails. The felon is doing his damndest to keep the lid on the Epstein scandal, but R’s are beginning to fearing their own constituents more than the felon.
With this doc dump I can’t see any reason that an R congress critter wouldn’t vote for the files held by DoJ to be released. Now, whether DoJ will release the files is another question…
War on Christmas
Count me out.
I remember my parents taking me to Santa’s Workshop in North Pole, New York for summer vacation in the Adirondack Mountains when I was very young. It was before my brother was born in August of 1953. I would have been maybe 5 years old. The venue had just opened in July of 1949 so it was not as developed as it is today. I do remember The North Pole in the middle of the place and I could not figure out how it stayed frozen in the summer.
That trip also provides me with memories of a time before my mom was diagnosed with schizophrenia. Memories my brother and sister (b. 1955) do not have.
@Sleeping Dog:
I suspect this is why the “Andrew formerly known as Prince” has been ejected at this point, after years of being just sidelined, despite cout cases etc.
That the UK government is aware from its “sources” that a whole load more shoes are about to drop and that even if (big if) nothing dips Andrew more directly in the sh!t, any connection to Epstein is going to become as toxic as a plutonium cocktail.
@Sleeping Dog: Also, have you seen the writing in these emails?
There’s a literacy scandal buried in with the sexual abuse of children scandal. It’s appalling. Not child rape levels of appalling but utterly appalling.
Also, autocorrect wanted to change appalling to appealing, which would have completely changed the meaning in the worst possible way — “not child rape levels of …”
iOS does not like it when we criticize our betters. It tried to frame me.
And then Safari froze. And then logged me out. And froze again. Had to switch to Brave browser. I’m sure it’s all a coincidence.
@gVOR10:
I usually see Xmas tchotchkes for sale in the stores by mid October. When I was a bit active in “social” media, I’d take phots and upload them with “Isn’t it too October for this?” But I really don’t care, past taking an opportunity for snark.
Before the Good Weekend was a thing (which, BTW coincides now with the three day weekend for the anniversary of the Mexican Revolution), some of the higher end department stores had sales for one night per branch late in October. There were discounts, rebates, and sometimes gifts depending on how much you purchased in one night. The Good Weekend sales kind of ended this.
@steve222:
I’d say that work for a 6 year old grandchild. Not necessarily for every six year old.
Then again, I’ve no grandchildren. That’s a good thing, because I don’t have children either. imagine if I found I have grandchildren without ever having children to begin with. The paradox would depopulate Vulcan (Ni’Var?)
Usually I alternate chicken and beef each week. This time, I was so close to getting the stuffed milanesas just right, that I want to try to do them over.
@Sleeping Dog:
@JohnSF:
I don’t think there will be a big revelation in the Epstein Files, at least concerning El Taco. It feels a lot like the tax returns all over again.
Going with the modified Clarke Paradox*, I’d state it thus: they’re trying to hide the fact the files don’t hide what the MAGAt base think they do.
In other words, there’s no evidence that will prove damning to the Clintons, the Bidens, any other liberals, or even Bill Gates.
I might be wrong. But, really, what are the chances of that? 😛
*The original Clarke Paradox is: they’re hiding the fact they have nothing to hide. And it’s the one good thing to come from Childhood’s End.
@Bill Jempty:
And yet there was the legendary 63 yarder kicked by Tom Dempsey in New Orleans in 1970.
That was a clear outlier. It was tied in 1998, 2011, and 2012, and only broken in 2013.
To see that such long field goals are not outliers any more, though they remain rare, Dempsey’s is now the fifth longest FG in NFL history.