Outside the Beltway

Worry Polarization

Americans are concerned about very different things.

James Joyner · Wednesday, May 1, 2024 · 17 comments

An interesting if odd NPR poll (“Democrats fear fascism, and Republicans worry about a lack of values“):

The fear factor is real in America, but Democrats and Republicans are scared for the country’s future for different reasons, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

They also believe very differently about what children who will inherit that future should be taught.

Looking at this year’s presidential election, the survey also found big shifts with key voter groups, along generational, racial and educational lines.

It also explored how third-party candidates and so-called “double haters” — who have unfavorable ratings of both President Biden and former President Donald Trump — could affect the race.

Finally, it finds a jump in Republicans now believing Trump has done something unethical, as he continues to contend with dozens of criminal charges and legal troubles.

So far, so good.

Fascism and extremism vs. a lack of values and becoming weak

Democrats overwhelmingly said teaching children to treat others as you would want to be treated, the “Golden Rule,” is the most important value to teach children. That was followed farther back by “education being the key to success” and “be happy and follow your dreams.”

Democrats are most concerned about a rise in extremism and fascism, topping everything else by a wide margin.

Republicans, on the other hand, said instilling children with faith in God, teaching them that hard work and discipline pay off, and to abide by the “Golden Rule” were most important.

Their biggest concerns for the country were a lack of values and becoming weak as a nation.

That’s a bit confusing but the graphics help show the starkness:

Democrats are very worried about fascism, with nearly half citing it as their biggest fear, whereas Republicans are not at all concerned. Independents are right in line with the median. Conversely, roughly a third of Republicans are most worried about becoming weak as a nation—almost three times the rate of Democrats. Once again, Independents are smack in the middle. Interestingly, given what we’ve been reading for these last several years, essentially no Republicans cite “people like you losing power;” indeed, their responses here are identical to the Democrats.

With regard to the first two “values” questions, I’m wondering about interaction effects. On the surface, Republicans are nearly three times as likely as Democrats to cite “Faith in God” as the number one value and Democrats roughly twice as likely to cite the Golden Rule. But the most familiar version of the latter to Americans comes from Jesus’ Sermon on the Mount. So, presumably, faith would reinforce, not compete with, that value.

Otherwise, no real surprises here. Democrats are increasingly the party of the educated class; it’s natural that they see it as a top value. Republicans, on the other hand, have increasingly seen educational institutions as threats to their religious, social, and cultural values.

Trump’s trials have worn down Republicans, as more of them are viewing the former president as having done something wrong

Fewer than half of respondents said they’re following Trump’s New York hush money trial closely, but with the Republican primary over and Trump’s continued legal troubles, a majority of Republicans now say they believe Trump has done something wrong, whether that’s something unethical or illegal.

The degree to which that will influence voting behavior in November remains to be seen but it would seem to be evidence that at least some awareness is setting in.

There are big shifts since 2020 along age, race and educational lines

When looking at the presidential election, Biden and Trump remain in a virtual tie among registered voters, with 50% for Biden and 48% for Trump. Among people who say they are “definitely voting” in November, Biden’s lead expands out to 5 points, 52%-47%. The survey shows Biden is doing better with groups that say they’re likely or definitely voting — older voters and college-educated whites, in particular.

The irony, of course, is that Republicans have historically benefitted from this for the same reasons.

That may seem like the same old story — two well-known candidates who were expected to be in a close race are now in a close race. But the top line numbers mask important shifts taking place by age, race and education.

Here are some key findings:

Age

• Trump won voters older than 45 in 2020, according to exit polls, but Biden is winning them now, including having a 12-point lead with the oldest voters. That’s unusual because older voters have traditionally leaned Republican.
• Biden won voters under 45 by double-digits in 2020, but Trump and Biden are now tied with the group. Biden is particularly struggling with the youngest voters — he’s up just 2 points with Gen Z/Millennials, who are 18 to 43 years old. In 2020, though, he won 18- to 29-year-olds by 24 points, and those 30 to 44 by 6 points. 
• Respondents aged 18 to 29 give Biden just a 31% approval rating, 10 points lower than his overall rating of 41%.

I suspect this is more about generational displacement than shifting attitudes among the same cohort. The Silents and Greatest Generation are dying off, and the Boomers and Xers have gotten four years older. Indeed, the oldest of the Millennials have just turned 43, so they’ll be in the “over 45” category next go-round. It’s somewhat ironic that the youngest voters disapprove of Biden, given student loan forgiveness and the like that he’s done to curry their favor; but they’re doing far worse than recent generations were at that point in their lives.

Race and education

• Biden won nonwhite voters by 45 points in 2020, but his lead with them now is half that.
• He is doing better with white voters than he did in 2020 by a few points, and that’s mostly attributed to college-educated whites.
• Biden won college-educated white women by 9 points in 2020. This survey has him ahead by 17 with them.
• Trump won college-educated white men by 3 points in 2020, but now Biden is ahead by 10 points with them.

Here, it seems obvious that race and education are two variables rather than one. Biden is doing better with college-educated folks, who are disproportionately White and Asian, and losing working-class voters, who are disproportionately Black and Hispanic.

“Double haters” are core to RFK Jr.’s support

Well . . . duh.

Polls have been unclear about which candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to pull support from more. This survey shows him taking a bit more from Biden than from Trump.

Biden’s 2-point lead with all adults and 5-point lead with registered voters evaporates when RFK Jr. and others are considered. RFK Jr. takes in 11% of the vote, which is about how much he’s been registering on average in previous Marist polls and other surveys.

It’s no secret that there’s a lot of cynicism and disaffection among many voters. Highlighting the country’s partisanship, respondents said both men essentially represent equal threats to democracy, and majorities say they dislike both.

In this survey, 56% have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 54% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden. That’s the well from which RFK Jr. is drawing.

My guess here is that Trump’s 56 and Biden’s 54 are different. Aside from committed partisans, my guess is that few viscerally dislike Biden. So, it’s not just a matter of there being slightly more Trump “haters” but rather that there are a whole lot more who really hate Trump.

In a matchup between Biden, Trump and RFK Jr., RFK Jr. gets 31% with those who have an unfavorable rating of both Trump and Biden, the “double haters.” Another 31% of the “double haters,” when faced with this choice, chose Trump and only 20% side with Biden.

But that’s surely a function of a lot of die-hard Republicans finding Trump personally loathsome but nonetheless unwilling to let a Democrat set public policy. And RFK is, after all, a Democrat.

That’s a major warning sign for Biden because in 2020, Biden did well with “double haters,” according to Democratic pollsters. When it’s just Biden against Trump, the two men are statistically tied with the group, 46% for Trump, 45% for Biden.

There wasn’t a charismatic alternative to the two men in 2020.

Among the other groups RFK Jr. gets his most support: independent women (22%), independents overall (17%), those in the West (15%), parents with children under 18 (14%), white women with college degrees (14%), those under 45 (13%) and Gen Z/Millennials.

I’ll be shocked if anything like that level of support sustains itself through the fall.