Does A GOP Win In FL-13 Mean Anything?
Does one Special Election in Florida tells us anything about nationwide trends? Probably not.
The big news last night was the victory of David Jolly over former Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Alex Sink in a Special Election to fill the seat of former Republican Congressman Bill Young, who died late last year after having served in Congress for nearly forty years. Leading up to last night’s results, both parties and their surrogates has expended as somewhat astounding $12,000,000 on a race in a district that had been represented by a Republican for some four decades, but which had allegedly been trending Democratic in recent years. For example, Sink herself won the district in 2010 when she ran against Florida Governor Rick Scott and President Obama won the district by some five percentage points in 2012. In both years, of course, Young was re-elected by comfortable margins although the “conventional wisdom” seemed to attribute that more to the fact that he was a popular and long-standing incumbent than to any endorsement of Republicans. At the very least, then, Florida-13 can be characterized as one of the few remaining “swing” districts in the nati0n, meaning that it is one that is potentially capable of going for either party depending on the dynamics of a particular election.
So, does the fact that a Republican won election last night in a district formerly represented by a Republican which had also voted Democratic in recent elections actually mean anything?
Republicans, of course, will want you to believe that it does and that FL-13 is a harbinger of the problems that Democrats will face in the November midterms. Perhaps in some sense this will turn out to be true. It is certainly the case, for example, the the Jolly campaign and those outside groups that worked on the district on its behalf spent considerable time emphasizing the ongoing problems with the Affordable Care Act, and there will be many in the GOP who will use this victory as evidence in favor their position that this is something that Republican candidates, both at the House and Senate level, should be doing between now and November. In reality, of course, the PPACA was going to be at the center of the GOP’s campaign message regardless of what happened last night, so I’m not sure that the results 0f the Jolly-Sink race actually change anything in that regard.
Democrats, of course, will do their best to try to dismiss the results of the electi0n in Florida. Some of that dismissal was on prominent display last night on Twitter as top Democrats and pundits on the left tried to undercut the results by pointing out that the district had been represented by a Republican for decades. Such comments, of course, ignored the fact that both President Obama and Alex Sink herself had won the district in 2012 and 2010 respectively, and many of them seemed to be little more than a desperate attempt at spin in a year when things are looking very troubling for Democrats as a whole.
So where does the truth lie? Somewhere in between, I think.
Republicans are correct to point out the fact that Sink was expected to win the district based in large part on how the district had been trending in 2010 and 2012, and this is likely yet another harbinger of what is likely to be a good year for the GOP nationwide. At the same time, though, it’s worth noting that the numbers over the past three years suggest that what happened last night in Pinellas County, Florida is likely just a temporary state of affairs.
In that respect, just consider these numbers:
- In 2010, when most of what is now known as the 13th District was actually the 10th Congressional District, Congressman Young won an overwhelming victory with 137,943 of the 209,256 votes cast.
- In 2012, Young won the 13th District with 189,605 out of 329,347 votes cast.
- Last night, according to preliminary results, Jolly received 89.099 votes out of 184.278 votes cast.
In other words, the number of votes cast last night was some 20,000 less than the total number cast in the 2010 General Election, and more than 140,000 fewer than those cast in the 2012 election. Obviously, with turnout like that we’re not getting a very accurate picture of what the 13th District of Florida looks like in a General Election without Bill Young on the ballot, and the idea of trying to draw conclusions about national trends from these results is even more precarious. As many of you may recall, Democrats won all but one of the Special Elections held in advance of the 2010 mid-term elections, and we all know how those elections turned out. Given that, the idea that we can really say anything definitive about what will happen in November based on an election in which turnout was down 12% from 2010 and 44% from 2012 seems rather silly when you think about it.
This is why I think Dave Schuler hits the nail on the head when he makes this point:
My conclusion is that politics remains local and in this election in this year David Jolly was a better candidate for FL-13 than Alex Sink. It might also be good to keep in mind that pundits, pollsters, and reporters in all likelihood aren’t very familiar with the district and have an unavoidable temptation to project their own preferences onto candidates and elections. Conditions might look very different on the ground in the district than they do from Washington, New York, or LA.
Not only do I agree with Dave’s observation that Jolly was likely a better candidate or FL-13, I think the results of the election demonstrate clearly that he was a better campaigner. The best evidence of that can be found in the reports that, while Alex Sink narrowly beat Jolly in the early voting and absentee ballots, Jolly won election day voters by at least 54% to 46% according to the preliminary tallies. This suggests that Jolly had a better Get-Out-The-Vote operation than Sink, and also that he was likely able to rely upon his connections to the late Congressman Young, for whom he worked for many years, to appeal to voters on the ground in a way that Sink did not. If anything, that should be a lesson to Republicans that the way you win elections is by running better campaigns, not just by repeating slogans developed by some Tea Party advocate somewhere.
Given that the Tea Party is working actively to sabotage the Republican Party, I would guess that the Democratic Party need worry a lot less about what’s going to happen this coming November.
When it comes to election predictions and what elections mean, ignore the pundits and read the quants.Sam Wang gave to 2 to 1 ods that Jolly would win, and even opredicted thathe would win by 2%.
Wang for those not in the know, is the Princeton mathematican who was as accurate as Nate Silver in predicting the 2012 elections. Fundamentals are fundamental, and Republicans won that district by 15 points in 2012.
I have to love her persistence but Alex is about as exciting as a Quaalude as far as campaigning and motivating the grassroots. Among other things, Obamacare is a winner for Florida workers but she pushed it away. Coupled with her bankster albatross I can see certain dems not bothering to show up.
On the other hand maybe Jolly is really, really good.
jeez, I wonder if this could have been predicted by surnames alone.
@john personna:
Some kind of marine battle? The Jolly Roger sank the Good Ship Sink?
Will it provide pundits already on cable news’ payrolls with an opportunity to give their opinion without resorting to expensive and time-consuming research? Then this race will get ample airplay on cable nets.
That said, fair game for the GOP to tout this as a harbinger for the midterms.
A. The Democrats cleared the field for Sink. She was unopposed in the primary. Jolly had to win a competitive primary in January. Clearly, the Dems thought she was a strong candidate.
B. Sink was a much better known candidate having run statewide twice before, even winning the district in 2010.
C. Sink significantly outraised and outspent Jolly. Even counting the spending of outside groups, Jolly was outspent by $2 million. Democrats wouldn’t have spent that kind of money if this was really such a Republican district.
D. Jolly absolutely made his campaign about Obamacare. Anyone trying to claim that Obamacare was not the major issue in this race is disingenuous.
E. Democrats need to win these swing districts, not Republicans. The Democrats need to take the majority in the House if they want to get anything done.
This actually is a pretty big deal.
@ Gavrilo
Oh, it’s a stunner…
I believe that Young had been in Congress for 42 years, not less than 40. I also have heard that the Libertarian candidate got about 4% of the vote, making your 54%-46% split among election day voters very unlikely.
Garvillo- please do some research (Open Secrets, etc.)- when every dollars is tabulated you will find both sides spent about 5.5 mill-no side had an advantage. A close race in a tight district is indicative of nothing. I think Mataconis is right- the better campaigner won.
Having no knowledge of the campaigns but believing very much in the power of GOTV, I bet the better campaign machine won.
That said, if he made it “all about Obamacare”, and the Dem made the inroads into the popular vote that are reported, against a good campaigner and protege of the very popular incumbent, I don’t think it’s a bad sign for Obamacare at all (which after all is just beginning to get some good news stories out).
A former statewide winner couldn’t beat a former lobbyist who spent millions of dollars tying Obamacare around the Democrat’s neck – Nope, not a big deal at all. Da Nile isn’t just a river in Egypt.
I can hardly wait for November to watch the crash and burn. I guess when the crazies get veto-proof majorities in both chambers someone at the DNC will realize just how unaffordable the Affordable Care Act is.
@edmondo:
I’m guessing that the morons will not have a veto-proof majority over senate Democrats.
@CSK: Democrats need to worry about the positioning of the national party and get it back toward the mainstream center. Then it can return to power and dominance in the south once again.
Around here, there is not a Republican in sight. The local elections are dominated by the Democrats, as has been the case for a long time, long before I was born.
@edmondo:
You do understand that the Republicans would have to pick up 22 seats to gain a veto proof majority? And that there’s only 21 Democratic seats up for reelection in 2014?
BTW, the last election that the Republicans gained a veto proof majority in the senate? 1872.
What it tells us is that hatred of Obama and Obamacare is enough to get Republicans to the ballot box and that the Democrats don’t really have anything that inspires them to vote. Not a good sign for the Democrats in 2014.
i think the worst thing that a democrat candidate could do is have obama campaign for them, that has to be the strategy- distance yourself from him and you have a chance.
What it tells is that republicans and republican leaders get the vote out for elections other than. Presidential ones. The Democrats are mostly masters of presidential. GOTV efforts.
I will say that the upcoming election will have the anti Obamacare people already motivated to vote.
@Gavrilo:
Please explain to me how a seat that has been Republican for 42 years is a swing-seat?
Jolly made this about Obamacare and won a Republican district by 2 points. That wouldn’t have me very excited if I was mentally deficient….I mean…er…a Republican.
But whatever straws you can grasp onto, I guess.
@C. Clavin:
Sure. Everyone on the planet has been calling this a swing district since even before Bill Young died. Charlie Cook rates the district R+1. The voter registration in the district is 37% R, 35% D, 28% I. Democratic candidates, like Alex Sink, have won majorities in the district in recent elections.
There are only a handful of congressional districts in the entire country that could be considered more competitive than Fl-13. (Probably why the DCCC spent over $2 million on it.) But, you go ahead and keep believing that it doesn’t matter. Not only will Democrats not win the House, they will actually lose seats in November. But, please no more whining about Republican “obstructionism” when your party can’t win competitive districts.
Well, Republicans are still whining about losing the White House – twice. Perhaps you should give them a lecture.
@ Gavrilo
Oh, and the GOP has failed to repeal Obamacare what, 40 times now? No more whining!
@anjin-san:
At this rate, Obama is going to repeal Obamacare through indefinite delays.
Keep telling yourself that if it gets you through the night. We are at about 5 million enrolled despite the hosed rollout and endless attempts at GOP sabotage. This is also interesting:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/03/13/americans_dont_want_to_dump_obamacare.html
And from Murdoch’s own WSJ:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/03/03/obamacare-effects-account-for-most-of-income-spending-increases/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2014/01/08/does-obamacare-deserve-credit-for-slowing-the-growth-in-health-care-spending/
@anjin-san:
50 times. That’s FIFTY. Five-Zero.
And they aren’t done yet.
When did the GOP become the party of idiots?
@Gavrilo:
So the district is majority Republican…by 2 points….and the Republican won by…wait for it…two points.
Wow.
Talk about a bell weather district!!!
@Gavrilo:
That’ll come as a shock to the millions of uninsured who now have insurance because of Obamacare.
Maybe you shoul look at what has happened to the number of uninsured in this country.
Oh wait… That would require examining facts and opening your mind. So that ain’t ever gonna happen, is it?
@C. Clavin:
As usual, you are confused. There are more Republicans than Democrats in the House of Representatives. That means that the Democrats need to win elections in districts currently held by Republicans in order to win the majority and implement their agenda. All Republicans need to do is maintain the status quo. They had a great opportunity to do just that in Fl-13 but failed miserably, despite having a better known, better funded candidate. There are very few congressional districts in the country that offer a better opportunity for Democrats to pick up House seats. That they couldn’t win FL-13 does not bode well for their chances at winning a majority in November.
@C. Clavin: How about thousands who have lost good health plans and were switched to sub-par AFA plans with higher premiums, higher deductibles, higher co-pays, and less coverages ?
Most of the young people who are are without insurance are staying that way. Threats of some sort of penalty through the IRS is meaningless to those people since many do not file returns or are not working.
@Gavrilo:
You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means
No one here thinks they are going to, so thanks for telling everyone what they already know. The Senate is where the action is this time.
But hey, nice use of “bode well” – almost makes it sound like you have something to say.
I note that you are silent about the Obamacare articles I posted (2 from leading conservative publications)
@Tyrell:
Show me some facts.
We keep hearing about these stories… But when checked out – they don’t check out.
If it was as prevelant as Fox News has convinced you that it is….seems like Republicans could find some real examples…and not the phony ones we’ve seen so far.
Seriously… The Koch brothers spent hundreds of thousands running an ad about a woman who could have gotten cheaper insurance…if she had only looked.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2014/03/11/koch-backed-organization-uses-cancer-victim-to-run-deceptive-anti-obamacare-tv-ad-violates-ftc-law/
@Gavrilo: @Gavrilo:
You seem to have missed where Obama is getting stuff done in spite of the most unproductive Congress ever.
Maybe you’ve heard about changes to the size of defense?
Maybe you’ve noticed a non-interventionist foreign policy?
And oh yeah…Obamacare.
Sure…he’s not getting everything done he might want.
But has kept Republicans from starting more wars they can’t finish, eliminating Medicare, and selling the White House to the Koch Brothers.
@anjin-san:
Dude, my comment about Obama repealing Obamacare was obviously tongue-in-cheek. This thread has nothing to do with Obamacare other than the fact that Jolly made repealing it the centerpiece of his campaign and Sink’s position was to keep it and “fix” it. And, in case you forgot, Jolly won.
@C. Clavin:
Lamest. Comment. Ever.
@ Gavrilo
It’s cool. You obviously don’t want to discuss Obamacare beyond weak snarks, and really, given the facts, no one blames you.
@Tyrell: I have thought for some time that Medicare should have expanded to bring in people who had lost their insurance or job, students, and those with pre-conditions. The application process was already in place and would just need some modifications. As far as all of the computer glitches, starts, stops, freezes, overloads, and malfunctions that happened last fall: could have been avoided if the government would finally ditch the Commodore 64 Tandy computers. And dump the Windows 98.
A curious phenomenom is being seen: more and more family doctors are returning to a pay as you go system – less paperwork, cheaper, and quicker. Charges are far less. Less government intrusion. Patients are still free to file claims themselves if they wish. That is the way it used to be.
@Tyrell: I’ve just spent the last few months dealing with a family member’s grave illness and surgery. We’ve seen lots of doctors and numerous medical personnel have trreated him. In addition both myself and my kid have seen four different doctors in the past two months. Not one of them has asked for payment beyond our regular copay. Got anything to back up your claim because my anecdotal evidence sure doesn’t agree?
@anjin-san:
Facts? Ha. You linked to a poll showing that the majority of people support Obamacare as it is or with small changes. Congrats! They just had an election in Florida that showed otherwise. That’s a fact.
You linked to an article that claims income and spending are up because of Obamacare. Great! Lots of things can increase income and spending. Like tax cuts, or lower energy costs due to increased drilling. Hell, I bet we could really increase income and spending if we got the unemployment rate down to 5%. All good facts.
Finally, you link to an article that claims healthcare spending is down because of Obamacare. Yeah, that’s called rationing. Did you even read the article? When the government limits the amount that can be reimbursed for a procedure, you will have fewer procedures. Also, most people don’t like being told that they can’t be admitted to the hospital more than once in a 30 day period. Especially when they are sick. Another fact.
@Gavrilo:
That’s a fact? Got anything to back that up?
I trust polls a lot more than elections to gauge the support of an issue since elections never are about just one issue. This goes for Obamacare, gun control, gay marriage, taxes, etc.
But please, Gavrilo, shows us all the proof you have that a Republican winning in FL-13 means that people hate Obamacare… I’d love to see it.
@Gavrilo:
I’m not sure you understand how elections work. I’m fairly confident that the ballots didn’t include an option to actually vote on Obamacare.
I’m very sure you don’t understand medical care costs at all. This is so nonsensical that it isn’t even wrong. Wrong would mean you could coherently discuss the issue, but this didn’t even reach that level.
@Gavrilo
Are you as confused as you sound?
@Gavrilo
I’m curious, how old were you the last time a Democrat won in FL-13? I was in Jr. High School, and I belong to AARP now…
@Gavrilo:
Here’s another fact – in 2012 we had a presidential election that was as much a referendum on ACA as anything else. Obama won that election. A nationwide election would seem to have more importance with regard to ACA than the results of an election in a predictably Republican District in Florida.
That’s pretty funny. The Repubs lost votes compared to previous elections in the district, they won with the same percentage as polls show voters there identify as Republicans, by all accounts the Dem was stiff and an inferior campaigner and this means that Obamacare is doomed? Notwithstanding two recent polls showing that a large majority do not want the law repealed and that in fact, when you count the people who think Obamacare doesn’t go far enough as supporting at least Obamacare, the supporters and opposers are roughly equal.
@Tyrell: How about those of us in our 50s who have certain medical histories–not much, mind you–but certainly enough for health insurance companies to eagerly throw us off the ledge via the old “existing conditions”. Or find excuses about “conditions” we “didn’t inform them” about to yank coverage from us just as soon as they found we needed cancer treatments?!
If you people had done ANYTHING to help the non-insured or non-insurable aside from whining about how Teh Free Market Would Fix All, I might have more sympathy. At present? None. Especially since those of us on the outside of the system had to pay the FULL prices for any medical treatments we got, rather than the much cheaper rates insurance companies had arranged for their clients. And you guys did BUPKIS about that discrepancy.
So no, I don’t want to go back to the old system. And until you can FIX the problems with the old system, don’t suggest tearing down what we have.
Clavin and his merry band of know-nothings sure sound like they are whistling past the graveyard on this one.
@Pylon: Yeah, Obamacare isn’t really much of a factor at all. The only thing to take from this election is turnout, Democrats don’t turnout for mid-terms(which we all already know…..).
The D’s are going to take a licking this time around, but it will be the GOP’s turn in 2016 when the table turns.
@John425:
Yes, a reliably Republican district that stays Republican is certainly a bell weather District that signals a nationwide political trend.
@John425:
Thank you so much for your insightful comment, it really added all your wisdom to this thread.