Outside the Beltway

Murkowski Write-In Bid Has Little Impact On Alaska Senate Race

Doug Mataconis · Tuesday, September 21, 2010 · 2 comments

The first poll taken after Lisa Murkowski announced her intention to run as a write-in candidate seems to indicate that Republican Joe Miller has very little to worry about:

Republican Joe Miller attracts 42% of the vote in the first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Alaska Senate race since GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski announced her write-in campaign to try to keep her job.

The telephone survey of Likely Voters in Alaska shows Murkowski picking up 27% of the vote and Democrat Scott McAdams earning 25%. One percent (1%) say they’d prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

This race now moves from Leans GOP to Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Miller, fueled by an endorsement from former Governor Sarah Palin and by strong Tea Party support, was the upset winner over Murkowski in the Alaska Republican Primary in late August. Despite pleas from the GOP national establishment to accept the primary’s verdict, Murkowksi announced a write-in campaign late last Friday.

Polling for write-in campaigns is always challenging, so results should be interpreted with caution. For this survey, Rasmussen Reports asked respondents about a choice between Miller and McAdams without mentioning Murkowski. That is the choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Murkowski’s name was mentioned.

Miller picks up a solid majority of Republican voters, while McAdams wins most Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, the three candidates are essentially even.

In the last poll, Miller led McAdams 50% to 44% so, clearly, Murkowski is hurting the Democratic candidate far more than she’s hurting her former Republican rival.

So far, Murkowski’s write-in bid is looking like little more than an exercise in pure vanity.