Outside the Beltway

Reid and Angle Neck-and-Neck in NV Polls

Angle is smartly focusing her commercials on the economy, and it is helping her numbers.

· Friday, July 30, 2010 · 2 comments

Via the Las Vegas Review-Journal:  U.S. SENATE RACE: Poll: Reid, Angle neck and neck

Sen. Harry Reid and Sharron Angle are locked in a dead heat, says a new poll for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and KLAS-TV, Channel 8 that shows the GOP challenger regaining ground after going on the offensive with a TV ad blaming Reid for Nevada’s deep economic troubles.

[…]

The new survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research shows Reid and Angle neck and neck. The Senate majority leader would win 43 percent and Angle 42 percent of support from likely Nevada voters if the election were held now. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points on the statewide telephone survey of 625 registered voters taken Monday through Wednesday.

As I have noted in numerous posts on this race, Angle’s best hope is the economy, so her current advertising strategy is smart.

If Angle and her views are the issue come November, then I think she loses.  If it is the economy, she likely wins.

FILED UNDER: 2010 Election, US Politics, , , , ,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter

Comments

  1. Robert Prather says:
    Friday, 30 July 2010 at 17:42

    If Angle and her views are the issue come November, then I think she loses.  If it is the economy, she likely wins.

    That sound about right, but the stuff she’s already said will be used against her regularly for the next several months.

  2. Max Lybbert says:
    Friday, 30 July 2010 at 19:56

    If Angle and her views are the issue come November, then I think she loses.  If it is the economy, she likely wins.

    After pouring $11 million into the race, and after using Angle’s “most extreme” statements (mainly “As a US Senator it’s not my job to create jobs,” i.e., it’s her job to get out of the way of people creating jobs), and after ending every TV ad with “Sharon Angle, too extreme,” and after running at least three times as many ads as Angle, Reid never broke 50%.
    The only way “Angle’s views” would be the issue in November would be if Reid’s ads started getting traction.  There’s no evidence that is happening.  There is plenty of evidence that he’s peaked.  There is some evidence that while Angle’s views cause most Democrats to back Reid (no surprise), she gets both Republicans (no surprise) and Independants/Unaffiliated ( http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/election_2010_nevada_senate ).

    Not surprisingly, Democrats tend to see Reid’s views as mainstream and Angle’s views as extreme. Republicans hold the opposite perspective. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 55% consider Reid’s views extreme while 52% say the same about Angle.
    Forty-five percent (45%) of Nevada’s Likely Voters consider themselves at least somewhat conservative and 24% consider themselves at least somewhat liberal. Those figures include 18% who are Very Conservative and 6% who are Very Liberal.
    Sixty-three percent (63%) of all Likely Voters consider Angle Very Conservative and 35% consider Reid Very Liberal.

    As I’ve said before, the long-time Nevadans I’m familiar with say that Reid used to be moderate, and veered to the left when he became Senate majority leader.  If he hasn’t cracked 50% yet, he’s not winning a majority of the vote in November.

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