Report: Boehner Tells House GOP 50-50 Chance Of A Deal Within 48 Hours
National Journal reports that Speaker John Boehner is telling his caucus that a deal on the debt ceiling could come within the next two days:
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, informed fellow House Republicans on Thursday that the chances of congressional leaders and President Obama reaching a tentative debt-ceiling deal within 48 hours are “maybe 50-50.”
That prognosis from Boehner was relayed by several House Republicans as they left a morning briefing with the speaker — and later confirmed by a GOP leadership aide. Boehner and other Republican and Democratic congressional leaders are set to continue negotiations at the White House on Thursday on a deal to raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling.
“I get the impression that it’s better than 50-50,” said Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y. “It will be agreed upon in the next 48 hours; if not, it won’t be for a long time.”
In a separate interview, freshman Rep. Billy Long, R-Mo., also said that he came away from the meeting believing a deal in the next 48 hours is “50-50.”
But if not, he said, there was a sense that negotiations could come unglued. “It will get done quickly, or not for a long time,” said Long.
They and other Republicans, such as Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., and Trent Franks, R-Ariz., said few specifics were unveiled to them during the conference meeting, although they said Boehner did reiterate that Republicans “aren’t interested in raising taxes.”
The meeting with the President started at 11am and still continues as we approach Noon. The longer it lasts, the better the signs that a deal is in the works, although I doubt everything could be wrapped up today.
Man alive, I’ve got my fingers crossed. Is something actually productive in the works?
Note that the best-case scenario is not running up against a totally arbitrary debt ceiling, with all the attached negative consequences. And to get that outcome, i.e. status quo, we’re having bizarrely irrelevant discussions about whether to cut off grandma’s medical care or her SS check. So the most we can hope for is not shooting ourselves in the foot too badly.
Yay, productivity…
Impression from here is:
1. A Deai will be struck, August crisis averted. It will be a short-term modest rise in debt ceiling. Markets will cheer, money will be made by the longs for a while.
2. Obama, incapable of telling the truth or keeping his word, will abrogate it by fiat sometime this fall. Prescient traders will go short, and remain patient, meanwhile donating to Obama.
3. We will be at this again in six to eight months, only with the knives truly drawn. Markets will drop, and the short/contributors will do well.
There’s no way the debt ceiling increase will be for only long enough to do this all again in a few months. It’ll take us at least past the elections because both parties think they’ll be able to get better terms in the next Congress.
I’m guessing they’ll have to pass it before we can see what’s in it.