When President Biden stepped aside, handing the reins to Vice President Harris, the whole tenor of the election contest changed. Democrats went from a sense of doom that the old man was going to get crushed to a sense of hope. When Harris greatly surpassed expectations in her early campaign appearances, people become absolutely giddy about her chances of not only sweeping the swing states but actually expanding the number of states that were in play. And, when she tapped Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, with his folksy “Republicans are weird” and “Mind Your Own Business” memes, as her running mate, it suddenly became a “vibes” election.
Despite nothing really changing—Harris has continued to campaign quite effectively, seemingly crushed former President Trump in the debate, and then executed the most on-message Democratic National Convention in ages—that seems like months ago. The race seems right back where it was months ago: a complete tossup.
Frustratingly, while Trump has upped his fascist rhetoric and displayed all manner of signs of mental decline in numerous public appearances, his favorability rating is higher than it was in 2020 or 2016. It’s quite possible that, despite everything, he could become President again.
The public opinion polls remain useful for giving us insights into what people are worried about but they’re increasingly suspect for predicting election results. Because almost all of us have shifted from landlines to cellular phones and screen our calls, telephone surveys have become self-selected samples. And, while pollsters are doing their damnedest to adjust to this using scientific weighting techniques, this is more art than science.
While Election Day is next Tuesday, the election has been ongoing for weeks in some places. Millions of people have already voted. The interpretations of the early voting is all over the place. As are predictions of who will turn out on Election Day itself.
By any reasonable measure, Harris should win this in a blowout. While she wouldn’t have been my first choice had there been an actual Democratic primary, she’s a reasonably normal American politician. By all indications, she’s possessed of her mental faculties and is a non-sociopath. She seems to have a genuine regard for the rule of law and the norms of liberal democracy. Her opponent is a convicted felon, has been found liable for rape in a civil trial, is under multiple other felony indictments, and incited a riot in a failed attempt to steal the last election. He has at the very least implied that he’ll resort to violence if he doesn’t win this time around.
And, yet, by all indications it’s a tie.
I remain unsurprised that the overwhelming number of those who have always voted Republican continue to do so with Trump as the nominee. Those who defected are almost entirely elites who have the luxury of placing a regard for institutional norms above short-term policy preferences. And, indeed, for most of us—overwhelmingly concentrated in the national security sphere—the Democratic alternative has actually been more closely aligned to our preferences than Trump in the last three cycles.
What’s harder to fathom are the Obama voters who have switched to Trump and the “vote for the man, not the party” voters who see Trump as the less-bad alternative. The best I can figure is that, as in 2016, a lot of it is a Screw You to “the Establishment,” whatever exactly that is. There’s clearly a sense that the traditional elites of both parties aren’t looking out for The Little Man and, indeed, for men in general. And there’s also a backlash against cultural change, whether from immigration or from the expansion of LGBTQ rights.
Regardless, I just have no damn idea what’s going to happen Tuesday night. I wouldn’t be at all shocked by a Harris landslide or a repeat of 2016. The only shocker would be if Trump won the popular vote.
