Sunday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Sunday, July 28, 2024
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63 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Judge rules Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey can be questioned under oath
The horror! There might be consequences if he can’t control his propensity for lying.
We saw Deadpool and Wolverine yesterday. It’s prime Deadpool, profane and gory and hilarious. Highly recommended.
Note to all GQP wingnuts: This is what electoral fraud looks like.
Now, when you read things like making voter registration harder, depressing turnout, moving polling places, is it just me, ir does it sound like what some red states are doing?
I’ve encountered a fair number of people who don’t realize that EMILY’s list is an acronym. It stands for Early Money Is Like Yeast–it “makes the dough rise.”
With that in mind, this is sort of astonishing:
This is good enough news that I’m letting myself be cautiously hopeful.
@Jen: I’ll admit to being surprised also. I really didn’t think a groundswell of support such as this was coming either. Glad to be wrong on this. Bodes well for the party.
So…..Trump can just dump Vance as VP and pick someone else? It’s just that easy? There’s no rules or regulations or anything?
@Jax:
Whoa! Did Trump do that????
Someone recently posted about the “Trump is weird” messaging (I think it was a newer commenter?) It’s gaining traction, and it could well be a stroke of genius. First and foremost, it’s true. Second, it’s embarrassing, which will make him deeply unhappy. Third, it’s more likely to penetrate the low information population because it’s not as alarmist as “threat to democracy” (which, while also true, has a tendency to sound overwrought).
@Jax: In 1972, Tom Eagleton was forced off the ticket after it came to light that he’d received electroshock therapy to treat depression.
I don’t know if any of the laws governing the nomination process have changed, but I suspect that yes, it’s possible for the Trump campaign to dump Vance if they decide he’s a liability.
That does not mean it’s a good idea. Trump would be admitting a mistake, which is…unusual.
@CSK: No, I’ve just seen a lot of headlines that he’s got buyer’s remorse and might be looking to replace him. I didn’t know you could just….do that.
@Jen:
He can still do it but his time window is short. The party needs to submit nominee names by Aug 21 thru Aug 23 to most states for ballot access – just a few as late as September, but Iowa is Aug 16 and Ohio earlier still (Aug 10 for Ohio IIRC). Which is why Kamala plans to make her selection by Aug. 7.
@Jen:
He can still do it but his time window is short. The party needs to submit nominee names by Aug 21 thru Aug 23 to most states for ballot access – just a few as late as September, but Iowa is Aug 16 and Ohio earlier still (Aug 10 for Ohio IIRC). Which is why Kamala plans to make her selection by Aug. 7.
ETA: I totally do not understand why these double posts keep occurring, I can only edit one of them, why I am not trying to delete one.
@Jax:
The analyses I’ve read suggest that he needs agreement from at least a majority of the RNC in order to create an official paper trail for the state parties. A super-majority of the RNC if Vance doesn’t cooperate.
@charontwo:
Is it though? The President/Vice President vote is ultimately a choice between two elector slates, and the Vice President is whomever the winning electors choose.
As long as Trump’s electors win, they can vote for whomever VP Trump wants, even if it says “Donald Trump and J.D. Vance” on the ballot.
@Stormy Dragon: Accepting that to be true, one could then argue that a vote for an elector slate of Trump/Vance is an entirely different “candidate” than voting for Trump/Haley, for example.
Meaning that some electoral votes would accrue to the Trump/Vance slate and other electoral votes to Trump/Haley – making it nearly impossible for a single slate to get to 270.
@charontwo:..double posts…
Just for kicks change your handle to charonthree and see what happens…
@Jen:
Also giving up a lot of money. WAPO, to my pleasant surprise, has a top of page story about how Thiel et al made Vance what he is today, including veep nominee. I thanked them in comments for actually talking about money, not the usual horse race BS.
I’m adding two more people to my donations list – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Senate candidate in Florida. Not much polling, but in June Rick Scott had just a 2 point edge in likely voters. And Colin Allred in Texas. A non-partisan poll in early July had him just 3 points behind Cruz, again with likelies.
I don’t know how good party infrastructure is in either state, so I don’t know if we have our usual GOTV strength there, so we’ll see. But worth a few bucks investment anyway. A strong ground game can beat a two point spread.
@just nutha: It is hard to the variables that enter the environment after a shock to the status quo.
I don’t believe this happens if Biden makes this decision. In fact, I believe that fact that he waited until the 11.8th hour is what caused a release of euphoria that appears to be contagious. It is a positive sign but doesnt really change the bottom line.
The election will hinge on the feelings of a handful of voters, not motivated by the big picture, once they enter the voting booth.
I still remain convinced that more Democrats and D-leaning voters will show up at the polls that Republicans and R leaders regardless of the head of the ticket-which would equal a Dem victory.
@Jim Brown 32:
170,000 volunteers and 200 million dollars absolutely affects the bottom line. In a turnout election enthusiasm is important. And money always matters.
@Michael Reynolds: She’s certainly not campaigning in the the panhandle—and coincidentally, I was wondering this morning before breakfast who was running against Scott
Doubtful she has a chance. Desantis brought many Red refugees here from Blue States. They are slowly leaving for Georgia and North Carolina because of the home insurance debacle here and insufficient infrastructure for the population gains—but that will take another several years to play out.
Florida is solid red for 4 more years and that’s assuming they have an injection of competence in the Dem Party here. Which is unlikely.
@Michael Reynolds: Only if Johnny/Jane on the Street who wasn’t thinking about voting—considers voting and follows through.
I assure you, replacing Biden with Harris means nothing to the non-considering subset—but they can try though
@Jen: So, I almost never use the word weird anymore. “Weird” is a word people seem to use when they want to denigrate something but aren’t able to articulate it.
For example, if one of my conservative relatives saw somebody with face tattoos, they’d call it weird and imply it somehow wasn’t acceptable adornment without actually saying why. And then steer clear. Personally, I might think, “oh, that’s an interesting design, but face tattoos are not for me, personally.” I might even ask about the design.
But then there’s the counter-culture angle, like the slogan, “Keep Austin Weird”. It’s a good thing to be weird.
I just don’t see how any usage I’m accustomed to fits Trump. We can articulate why he’s a terrible choice for president, and he’s certainly not the good kind of weird. So I’m not really getting this line of attack.
@Franklin:
It’s a schoolyard taunt. That’s were he lives.
@Franklin:
@anjin-san:
Yeah, it’s really about making them fight in their own turf. Which is a nice change of scenery for us and drives them absolutely batshit.
@Franklin: It’s not really an “attack,” per se. It’s an observation, using a standard, dictionary definition of the word (odd, bizarre, not functioning properly or as expected, unstable, broken).
Anjin-san is correct that, in part, it’s the schoolyard taunt. But it’s also–as I noted above–a softer statement than “he’s out to destroy democracy.” Despite everything we know about Trump, his inclinations, those with whom he surrounds himself, AND the evidence from Jan. 6, there are Republicans who think that “he’s out to destroy democracy” is hyperbole.
My husband and I both have Trump supporters within our immediate families. We can talk until we’re blue in the face about how he’s bad for the country; they won’t listen. But saying “he’s just so WEIRD” is definitely something I’m going to try.
@Jim Brown:
Yeah, I know Texas and Florida love to tease and then sucker punch us. You live in the Panhandle? I did when I was 11-12 years old. Niceville, which was never nice.
@anjin-san: @Beth: @Jen: OK, I see more where you’re coming from (and wow that dictionary definition is kind of accurate!). But I guess it still feels, um, weird to me to suddenly start using the word weird on someone suddenly after him being in the public eye for decades.
But hey, if it seems to work, I’m all for it! Let us know how it works on your Trump-y associates.
@Franklin:
Vote Weird & Weirder ’24!
@Jim Brown 32: You may well be correct, but since my prediction was that the party would split over this move, I will still note my surprise and note that my prediction seems to have been incorrect. That’s a positive situation in a Democratic Party that, over my lifetime, has had some difficulty circling its wagons fairly consistently.
Whether the current unity will lead to a shift in electoral fortunes? I have no idea and probably can’t predict from the vantage point of living in a D +16 state with a GOP that is so whack that Trump and Vance seem relatively bog standard.
@Franklin: “Keep Portland Weird,” by comparison, is a mixed message under the best of circumstances. It depends on the weirdness. Austin’s is probably more standard and appropriate weirdness.
ETA: And I suspect that Austin’s informal motto isn’t “Uh… I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore, Toto” or Seattle’s “This certainly isn’t our Emerald City.”
@Jen:
Nah, I’m pretty sure he’d find a way (or six) to place the blame elsewhere…
@charontwo:
Anyone else think Mark Kelly would be a great pick? Am I missing something there?
The airline blogs have been abuzz all week, concerning Couthwest’s decision to bein assigning seats, offering premium seats, and flying red eyes.
No word yet n how seat assignments will work, or what they mean by premium seats. The latter, in the US, typically include domestic first class, as well as extra legroom seats. Assuming Southwest won’t change their seat configuration, this can only mean the few bulkhead and exit row seats, which have more legroom.
They can change configuration easily, without reducing the number of seats. You may have noticed in coach all seats seem to be mounted on railings. It’s a relatively simple matter to rearrange the pitch (distance between rows), say to make all seating up to the wing exit row have more legroom, and contract space on everything past the wing.
Premium seats, however defined, cost extra in all airlines. Assigned seats can cost extra depending on airline. Southwest shows little inclination to nickel and dime passengers, but who knows. Right now they charge for early boarding in their current open seating model. They are the airline that makes the least from ancillary fees, precisely because they have so few of them.
Keep in mind they’re being pressured by an outside investment company that bought some large chunk of shares. They may wind up becoming a more expensive version of Spirit.
@Jen: I think that to some extent the support for Trump and downplaying of the suggested danger is also a reflection of their belief that they can’t actually accomplish their larger goals. Somebody will stop the madness. I remember a trip I made from Korea to visit my mom, who marinated daily in Fox News, Trinity Broadcasting programming, and the 700 Club to the point of watching shows several times a day because “you can’t get all the good, important information just watching once.” This particular trip, the issue of the day was the game of debt ceiling chicken that Congress was playing. Mom was fully in Fox News mode saying things like “it’s about time our Republican Congress people stopped letting the Democrats push them around and drive the country into bankruptcy.”
This particular time, I was fatigued with the BS and I said that I agreed. The Republicans should refuse to raise the debt ceiling. It was high time the nation got its economic house in order.
My mom’s reaction was “Have you lost your mind?!?!? Your father and I would be ruined!!!”
We may well be seeing the same show with a different story line this time. Or, maybe I HAVE lost my mind–well, somebody anyway.
@DrDaveT: I suspect that there are lots of “great picks” out there and that I don’t know enough about the situation on the ground in various states to guess about the downrange effects on any decision that will pulling an existing public servant out of their current position. Yet, going with a known quantity, and thus creating a void in the existing political universe seems the only way to go. Laissez les bons temps roullez.
@DrDaveT:
Democrats should be saying that Don Jr. and Eric MADE him do it…
@DrDaveT:
Border cred. Badass combat & test pilot cred. Astronaut cred.
I think it would be a great piece of ticket balancing.
International news footnotes from the past few days:
– The opposition in Burma/Myanmar have taken Lashio
That means the opposition alliance now control ALL the land borders; the government is increasingly confined to the southrn third of the Irrawaddy plains
– In Mali, a Russian Wagner assault force got stomped by the Taureg near Tinzaouatene. The significant thing: Ukrainian special forces reported as operating with the locals. The latest example, among many, that Ukraine is inclined to hit Russian operations overseas when it sees an opportunity.
– In Israel/Lebanon it looks like Israel is prepping for a major strike in response to the Hezbollah rocket attack on the Golan.
@Franklin:
I understand your view on the use of ‘weird’ when it comes to Trump, but when he says stuff like this:
It’s not entirely wrong to think he’s ‘weird.’
At the very least, calling him ‘weird’ defines him, and he hates it when rivals do that, but it practically forces him to deny it. It takes the fight to him.
@anjin-san:
I’ll see your Marine corporal boy reporter and raise you a Navy Captain, combat pilot, astronaut.
@anjin-san:
The only fly I can think of in the Mark Kelly VP ointment is his Senate seat. Arizona is more than capable of putting an R in that seat, and surely the person the gov will appoint to hold it will be an R.
Did The Bulwark go subscription only?
ETA: Never mind, suddenly I can see it again. It’s been a subscription page all day on my end.
Another great BBC Proms concert this evening, this one also on TV on BBC4: a 100th birthday celebration of Sarah Vaughan.
Excellent stuff.
@dazedandconfused:
See section C at this link: For a vacancy in the office of United States senator, the governor shall appoint a person to fill the vacancy. That appointee shall be of the same political party as the person vacating the office
On top of that, the governor is a Democrat. So no games in having a MAGAt switch party registration and getting appointed.
@gVOR10:
Vance pretty much did the same thing that Gore did in Vietnam – something Republicans excoriated him for.
@Kathy:
I stand corrected. I had not been keeping tabs on that state and still thought Lake was the Gov there. Ah, well. That state might still put an R in there after a few months though.
@dazedandconfused: Governor Katie Hobbs is a Democrat:-)
ETA: I see Kathy got there first! My family is in AZ, so I pay attention to the politics.
Of course, if a noted astrologer had said that about Carter…he’d have been denounced as the Antichrist at most Baptist churches across the nation. In this case, we’ll probably get allusions (illusions??? I always get the two confused) to Samuel visiting the witch at Endor.
@Jax: The links I click here (I don’t read Bulwark otherwise) are frequently subscription only. I ascribe it to the nature of private enterprise and the challenges of making a living in print media these days.
From what I am reading, Tim Walz MN Gov. is a lot better – better communicator, got a lot done as Gov with very slim majority.
As for Mark Kelly, his replacement by law must be a Democrat, who would hold the office until the 2026 general election (to finish the remaining 2 years until the term expires with the 2028 election).
ETA: In the abstract, AZ is probably evenly split D v. R. The R’s have a predilection for nominating outright loons like Kari Lake and Blake Masters which resulted in D’s in all the major statewide offices. Demographically, there should be a strong trend towards blue, so bluing with time.
@JohnSF: Somebody was asking about availability in the US a day or two ago. From what I can tell, the performances aren’t paywalled, but my home internet connection (shared with everyone in my apartment building over a half dozen or so signal repeaters [??]) doesn’t appear to download very fast–or maybe at all, I didn’t stay and wait. The intro blurb indicated that the performances will be available for 18 or so months so no urgency.
@anjin-san: Did Vance make the public announcement that he volunteered because he didn’t want any of the boys in his community to have to go “in his place” like Gore did? Just asking for the entertainment value of another “I developed the internet” pseudogaffe. Don’t really care about either one of them and do agree that the attack on Gore about his service was mostly gratuitous and unwarranted.
All in all, Trump selecting Vance makes Bush Sr. selecting Quayle rocket science by comparison, and that’s allowing for Jack Germond saying that Quayle was such a lightweight that he “could tap dance on a Charlotte Russe” at the time. (One of the most memorable comparisons evah, in my book.)
@Michael Reynolds: I relocated to the Panhandle a few years ago from Tampa but spend alot of time between both for my work. I was born in Destin so I know the area quite well despite being away 30+ years with Military adventures.
Democrat leadership has no statewide gameplan and are generally either old or unsophisticated enough to realize the 90s purple state playbooks are outdated.
They can’t rely on South Florida margins for Statewide victories. South Florida is barely Blue, Central Florida is pink, and North Florida Red. Yet, Florida still has alot of unactivated, uninterested Democrats who could be energized if someone bothered to message them
@JohnSF:
I had no idea this was happening! Is the opposition a cause for hope? Or is this Sudan/South Sudan; Ethiopia/Eritrea; Israel/Palestine redux?
I know for me, it was a matter of relief as much as anything else. I still had faith in Joe but way too few agreed with me. In other words, things had taken on a momentum of their own. Ignoring it was fool hardy.
@Tony W: Vote for the “Chaos party! We keep you guessing!”
@DrDaveT: That’s assuming he would accept it.
@Jen:
Then I must ask your opinion of whether or not Arizona might replace Mark Kelly with an R. In my lazy-hazy view that state is purple at best.
@JohnSF: One of my favorite singers and still quite underated compared to her contemporaries
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Safe to say that Vance’s foot has found a permanate home in his mouth.
@anjin-san: Won’t disagree with that!
@dazedandconfused: I agree with @charontwo‘s assessment that although it’s a purple state, the Republicans there have a tendency to nominate complete loons, which ends up giving Dems an edge. If Kelly were to be the VP pick and the Harris-Kelly ticket would win, the appointment would be a Dem, and the seat would be up in the next general election (2026). It’s hard to really parse who’d win that far into the future with so many unknowns, but all things being equal it should at least be competitive.