Ceasefire in Iran War
This phase seems to be over. [Or maybe not!]
The Economist (“Trump says the war is over. How 14 bombs may change the Middle East.“):
He came, he bombed, he ended the war—or so President Donald Trump wants the world to believe. Two days after a fleet of stealthy American bombers struck deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities, Mr Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire in the war between Israel and Iran. “I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR,’” he wrote on his Truth Social site.
Reports said Mr Trump had first secured Israel’s agreement to the ceasefire, then sent the proposal to Iran via Qatari intermediaries. Mr Trump said Iran would halt hostilities first, followed by Israel 12 hours later. Each side “will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL,” he explained. He later told NBC News he expected the ceasefire to last “forever”. Shares rose and oil prices fell as Iran’s foreign minister said there was no formal deal but said Iran would stop if Israel did. But as the deadline expired an early morning volley of Iranian missiles was reported to have killed three people in southern Israel, in what it must be hoped was a defiant final salvo.
[…]
Three questions now hang over the region: can the ceasefire hold; will there be a follow-on diplomatic deal to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme; and will the Middle East become more stable after the war?
Begin with the ceasefire. Neither Israel nor Iran have formally confirmed the cessation of hostilities, but both have good reason to stop fighting. The theocratic Iranian regime has long chanted “Death to America”, but has for decades sought to avoid a direct confrontation with the superpower, preferring instead to rely on proxy militias and occasional diplomacy. It is unpopular at home, its armed forces seem powerless against Israel, and its allies across the region have been weakened. With America’s entry into the war, Iran may now prefer to lick its wounds.
As for Israel, it is unlikely Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, will defy Mr Trump after hailing his historic military intervention. Moreover, Israeli military sources reckon they have destroyed nearly all of the targets on their list. Indeed, some suggested Israel might declare victory and stop attacking Iran, even without a formal ceasefire. Mr Netanyahu may now feel he has achieved a legacy-defining victory against Israel’s arch-enemy. Mr Trump, for his part, will not want the war to drag on, having reassured Americans that he was not getting them into another “forever war” after those in Iraq and Afghanistan, which he has long denounced.
As for the nuclear programme, Iran will not unlearn the technology it has mastered. Humiliated and resentful, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could yet decide that his regime needs nuclear weapons for survival. Even if most of its facilities have been destroyed, the programme might resume in secret. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says it does not know the whereabouts of Iran’s official stock of 400kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU), concentrated to 60% purity. If Iran has hidden enrichment centrifuges, it could make weapons-grade fissile material (usually 90%) relatively quickly. That would be enough for ten bombs.
[…]
Last is the broader question of regional stability, and whether it can be established for as long as the revolutionary mullahs remain in power in Tehran. If Israel detects a clandestine nuclear programme, it will feel compelled to return, with or without American help. It will also want limits on Iran’s conventional weapons, and its support for militias, after more than a year spent fighting the regime’s allies and proxies, and parrying missiles from Iran, Lebanon and Yemen.
Some in Israel and America think calm can ultimately be guaranteed only by the downfall of Mr Khamenei. On June 23rd Israel tried to undermine the regime’s instruments of repression by bombing the notorious Evin prison and the headquarters of the Basij militia that has suppressed anti-regime protests. Iranians did not heed Israel’s calls for them to rise up against the ageing mullahs. That was always fanciful while the bombs fell. But if the fighting ends, and Iranians begin to count the cost of the ayatollah’s errors, there might still be a backlash. Until then, Israel and Arab allies will want America to keep underwriting the security of the region.
The token nature of yesterday’s attack on American facilities in Qatar—broadcast in advance and careful not to kill any Americans—was clearly a face-saving measure aimed at the domestic audience. Iran has signaled time and again that, while they’re happy to have their proxies kill Israelis and Americans, they have no interest in serious direct conflict. They’re painfully aware that they are weaker than the Israelis and dwarfed by the Americans; indeed, that’s why they resort to asymmetric means to begin with.
Thus, the decidedly unorthodox nature of President Trump’s social media posts on the matter notwithstanding, we seem to have gotten away with bombing their nuclear facilities, something that administrations have seriously contemplated going back at least two decades and decided was too risky. Time will tell how much the program was set back.
I remain skeptical that regime change is coming. Khameini is 86, so presumably not going to be Supreme Leader much longer. But there’s no reason to think that an IRGC whose sole purpose is to safeguard the regime will stage a coup.
Despite there being growing opposition from the masses, the collective action problem of toppling a government with a brutal security force is huge. Further, while there is likely majority support for something other than a totalitarian Islamist government, the opposition is wildly factionalized. So, while they agree they want something else, they don’t agree on what. While Reza Pahlavi, son of the late shah, is tanned, rested, and decidedly ready, one imagines his support base in Iran is small, indeed.
UPDATE:
AP:
President Donald Trump says both Israel and Iran violated ceasefire terms with attacks following an early Tuesday deadline to cease hostilities.
Trump made the comments to reporters at the White House before departing for the NATO summit at The Hague. He expressed disappointment about the continued attacks.
“They violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said. He added, ”I’m not happy with Israel.”
The celebrations may have been premature.
A ceasefire by (social media) fiat – another Trump first. As usual, arrogant, ignorant and presumptuous. In a better world, Trump would be arrested at the Hague.
Did anyone really think the ceasefire would last?
@CSK: I was skeptical when it was announced, but Israel agreed to it in advance and Iran clearly benefitted from it, given that Israel can bomb at will. So, yes, once both parties stopped their attacks, I thought it would hold for the time being.
@James Joyner:
It seemed too quick to me.
@CSK: Me, too.
Mostly because of all the testosterone in the equation.
Do we have peace or war?
Is both war and peace good for business? Ask a Ferengi.
Moments in history have been labelled successes, Kellogg-Briand Pact and Versailles Treaty for example, that proved to be useless or plain disastrous, and at the time occurred the Helsinki Accords were proclaimed a travesty but today is considered one of the most pivotal moments of the Cold War.
A Israeli-Iran ceasefire is good. Will it work long term? Nobody at OTB has a crystal ball.
@becca:
Among his many, many, many other flaws, Trump has a really bad habit of jumping the gun, announcing major events (so-called triumphs) before they’ve occurred.
@CSK: Did you see my question to JohnSF yesterday? A cease fire agreement with Israel is worthless. A Trump announcement is always subject to verification, too.
So far, we know the nuclear facilities were not completely and utterly destroyed and there’s no cease fire. Standard Trump flummery. Pfui!
Netanyahu, like Putin, is making Trump his bitch. He got Diaper Donnie to drop the bunker busters, which he couldn’t do himself, and then turned around and ignored Private Bone Spurs.
Anyone expecting anything else is a fool.
I amused any of you thought there was one in the first place.
A piss poor salesman announces a deal done before the signatures are wet. He constantly does green pea nonsense like this.
I keep hearing that the Irani government is essentially a death cult, but they keep acting in ways to preserve themselves. Weak, sad!
@Assad K:
Maybe less a death cult than a murder cult. They’re quite good at murder.
@Michael Reynolds: wait until you hear about the Israelis.
Oh…sorry ..I forgot they are innocent waifs that never do anything wrong.
It’s hilarious watching such an avowed anti religion person have unquestioning support of Israel solely because they share a heritage, but go on with your bad self.
By all appearances, we are in a state of what I would call the quiet peace (WW2 aficionados get the point)- and what was accomplished? Basically nothing, which is why Iran is willing to take the hit. A couple months from now we will be in the same spot as we were a month ago- then what? I think Israel, and by extension the U.S. will need to reevaluate their strategy.
Uh oh.
Is the warranty still good on those bunker busters?
In some other thread I speculated that Iran might be rolling over a little too easily. And worried that no detected radiation leak might be a discouraging sign. This is why Iran accepted the ceasefire: they still have their uranium.
@Thomm:
Tell you what. I’ll give you 1000 dollars for every instance you can find of me saying they are innocent waifs who never do anything wrong. I’m good for it.
ETA: That is an anti-semitic remark. False and doubly false for claiming I said the thing I did not say, because of my Jewish heritage. Shame on you.
So…first Trump said he didn’t want regime change in Iran
The next day he said he did.
Today he says he doesn’t want regime change in Iran.
Per CNN, the Defense Intelligence Agency (Pentagon) says the strikes did not destroy the core components of the Iranian nuclear program; they only set it back by months.
Gee, I thought Trump said that the Iranian nuclear sites were “completely and totally obliterated.”
ETA: ABC reporting the same.
@CSK:
If Trump were not a moron, and if his SecDef were not a drunken cretin, they’d have waited on the BDA. Because how does he rationalize additional strikes?
@Michael Reynolds:
Yeah, well, Trump always has to rush to claim all the credit for something that turns out never to have happened.
Naturally, the MAGAs are saying that CNN and ABC are lying.
@Michael Reynolds:
When I posted my comment, I didn’t see that you had preempted me with this news.
Interestingly, the White House isn’t saying the report is false, just that they disagree with it. Karolyn Leavitt claims this “top secret” document was leaked to CNN by a “low-level loser.”
How would a low-level loser have access to a top secret document????
@Michael Reynolds:
Probably not. Israel is pissing Trump off.
Sucking up this hard to someone with NPD is like giving cocaine to a cokehead.
@Michael Reynolds: “They’re quite good at murder.”
Completely like the Israelis. Or the Americans. The Russians. The Chinese. The Indians. The Chileans. The Brazilians. And just about every other government on earth.
Why don’t we bomb them all?
@wr:
Silly boy, we don’t bomb people for murder, we bomb them for murdering the wrong people.
He said, she said.
Total obliteration. Also what happens to facts when you drop 30,000 lbs of b.s. on them.
@Rob1:
But is he really sucking up to Trump…or have the Euros figured out how to manipulate him?
@CSK:
In the Taco so-called administration? How could they not?
@dazedandconfused:
The praise is so fulsome that it may well be manipulative. Trump’s a sucker for the oleaginous.
@Michael Reynolds: Apparently we used up most of our bunker busters*, so if we don’t have the capability for round two that can only mean that round one was a success.
*: dumb if true. We should have plans for hitting the Iranian sites (the most likely use), and the capability to do a second run if the first one fails for some reason (plane flies into mountain or a helicopter, just misses the target, etc).
My inclination would be to blame each and every administration since they were introduced in 2011 for failing to build up the stockpile, unless there’s some reason production would be capped at 2 a year or something.
@Rob1: while they have him at The Hague, are there any war crimes he can be tried for?
@CSK: And praising him is a prerequisite for any meaningful communication. Anything less and you’re dealing with an angry four year old.
@dazedandconfused:
In either case, a fool’s errand.
@Rob1: Not at all. Works or has worked splendidly for Bannon, Putin, Miller, Netanyahu, among others.