More on the Shut-Down Strategy of the Democrats
I was going to post a comment to the thread of my previous post on this subject, but it started to get too unwieldy as a comment. I want to clarify a key point of my thinking on the Democrats’ shutdown strategy.
It all starts with this: I do not believe that there is any real chance for the Democrats to get what they want on healthcare. This is not a moment in which, this time, finally, the hostage-taking minority party is going to get what it wants. As such, this was never, in my mind, an opportunity to get the healthcare-related concession they are seeking; it was an opportunity to try and get the public to look at how the Trump administration has been usurping Congress’s authority and to highlight similar things.
Even that, by the way, is a Hail Mary in my mind.
Maybe I am forgetting something, and I would be happy to be corrected, but I cannot think of a time that the party that caused the shutdown was able to come anywhere near what they demanded, or even get what might be considered a major concession. There are, if I recall correctly, some occasional fig-leafs of concession, but nothing more.
That history, therefore, raises the question of what a shutdown is even useful for, and is the core of why I am not in favor of the tactic. I understand the logic that it gives the appearance of some kind of power to the minority. But the reality is, it always basically ends the same way, with the party that caused the shutdown to get little to nothing and to shoulder the blame, all the while losing some political capital as a result.
Put another way: those whose actions lead to the shutdown never get what they want and end up losing ground with the public.
As such, I would truly be shocked if the Democrats get real concessions on the healthcare issue.
That means that the only argument for really engaging this way is to try, with some degree of desperation, I would note, to get the public to look at the abnormal politics of the Trump administration.
And the reason I find the healthcare issue to be too mundane for this is that it is normal for Democrats to argue in favor of healthcare spending, and it is normal for Republicans to seek to cut it. But what the country needs is to understand how abnormal Trump is.
Further, I would note, the Republicans already cut healthcare expenditures, so in terms of a Democratic campaign issue, it already exists. The shutdown itself does not create that issue for the Dems to use; they already have it.
While this shutdown may draw more attention to those already existing cuts, the pain was coming no matter what, and, therefore, the ability of Democrats to campaign on it would have come about in due course.
So, my reasoning goes like this.
- There is no reasonable expectation that this shutdown will lead to the healthcare cuts being restored.
- Democrats already had those cuts as a campaign item.
- So, if you are going to engage in a shutdown, with a number of possible negatives being risked to include Trump using the shutdown to just close things he doesn’t like at a faster rate, you had better have some reason beyond normal-sounding politics as your more prominent message.
Schumer going on about bipartisanship and pointing to healthcare cuts doesn’t, in my mind, cut it.
This is a moment to get the public’s attention and try to get them to focus on Trump’s power grabs, not engage in political moves that could have time-traveled from a decade or two ago.
But please, for the sake of clarity, understand: the Dems will not be able to leverage the restoration of these cuts. If they do, it will be remarkable, and I will be happy to be wrong. At best, they may get a promise to hold a vote on something on the subject in the future (you know, in a Congress they don’t control, so we know how that will go).
So, the issue to me is not whether healthcare is important; it is. But in terms of outcomes, restoring the cuts is simply not on the table if history is any guide whatsoever (not to mention the current power dynamics in DC).
Really, I would rather the Dems go all-in and say they won’t cooperate, period, because of an easily recited list of grievances against the Trump administration and force the Reps to change the rules in the Senate so that the party owns all of this completely.
Indeed, I think one of the problems with our politics in general is that the public has a hard time knowing where to assign blame. A shutdown helps confuse the question of responsibility even further.
Pretending like this is about healthcare, as important as that is, isn’t going to work and makes all of this likely pointless, in my estimation.
If the reality proves me wrong, so be it, but does anyone really have any reasons (not feelings, reasons) why this time is going to be different?
I would conclude with two other points that drive my thinking.
- The hypothesis that there are enough GOP members of Congress to be fearful enough about their constituents rebelling over healthcare that they would buck leadership has already been tested and found wanting, as they all voted for the BBB.
- The current GOP is far more interested in tearing things down (e.g., firing, not spending appropriations, downsizing, etc.), so why would they let a shutdown leverage them in a way that would result in more spending?
In short, history shows this tactic doesn’t accomplish much and tends to damage the party that gets blamed. Right now, the Reps are willing to open the government, and the Dems aren’t, so I would like to see a more unique usage of this tactic that fits the times, and I am not seeing that.
My concern as well. Here in VA we have a big election coming up. Do not need any collateral damage. Such a longshot for Democrats to gain anything from it. If it drags on, or they do a stop gap and then threaten it again, and get nothing in the end, just not sure how that looks. Especially if they go through with firings and further gutting of agencies. Guess have to follow public sentiment and go from there, but actually living in the DMV, it gets tiresome
Period.
Doesn’t matter what “they” or “we” for any definition of those words. There is less than zero chance of anyone not a member of the GQP getting anything they want. Or need.
Bears repeating.
“We gotta take these bastards. Now, we could fight ’em with conventional weapons. That could take years and cost millions of lives. No, in this case, I think we have to go all out. I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.” – Otter (Eric Stratton)
And which party is that?
The one that wants healthcare coverage restored, or the one that refuses to do so?
The Dems badly need someone other than Chuck Schumer to be the messenger. They need someone who is younger, more energetic, and can show righteous anger without reading from an index card. The GOP counter on healthcare is that they are not letting ACA expire, just the additional perks that were added during Covid. Of course that ignores the cuts from the BBB. A more resonating justification is the persistent bad faith of Trump and the GOP, and the neutering of Congress.
@Tony W: The reality is, and like it of not, it was the withholding of votes by Democrats that led to the shutdown. If 7 of them had voted for the CR, the government would be open.
That is the dispassionate truth of how this works.
And I noted in the post how the Dems could make it wholly the Reps’ responsibility but they remain too mired in the normal to risk it.
Per Huffpost:
Does anyone think the out of office message the Trumpers are coercing would have read differently had the Democrats tried to put the focus on Trump’s power grabs?
@Charley in Cleveland: Schumer is not the leader for this moment. Not by a long shot.
@Scott F.:
Not at all. But if the focus was on the power-grabs, that message would hit the reader a bit differently, wouldn’t it? The way it would be covered might be different as well.
@Tony W: The Republicans have voted for a clean CR; the Democrats have used a silent filibuster to block it on the demand of new spending. Regardless of one’s position on the value of said spending, it’s rather clear who created the shutdown.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I have been watching horrid, fascist abuses of power from Trump and the Republicans for nine months now, waiting all the while hoping the exposure of this abuse or that abuse would hit the general voter differently or that the media might cover it as a horrid, fascist act by a non-normal authoritarian dictator. I’ve been waiting in vain.
You, yourself, have written on numerous occasions about unrealistic expectations for the power of messaging. I’ve agreed with what you’ve written. We are in a situation where one party is bound by the law and the truth, while the other party is lawless, lies about everything, and has the preeminent cables news network as a propaganda arm. The Democrats can stand on any position they want and it won’t matter because their position will be mischaracterized with backing from The Ministry of Truth.
As you’ve noted in the OP:
You and James have both noted the dispassionate truth that the Democrats ARE to blame. At least in a normal political world.
The shutdown is a horrible situation to be in and it needs to end as soon as possible. I can see a path to the Republicans meeting the Democrats demand to restore some health care cuts to get the votes they need for cloture. I can’t see anything that could move 7 D votes if the Democratic position was “stop being fascist” if you want cloture.
Yes, making the shutdown about a normal thing in an un-normal world is a losing proposition. There are no winning propositions. If we could get the shutdown behind us, then we can go straight back into exposing the horrid, fascist abuses of power from Trump and the Republicans and hoping exposure will turn the voters on the Trumpist GOP.
Yesterday’s episode of The Daily really resonated with me. A few key takeaways stood out:
1 – Schumer’s March Misstep – Back in March, Schumer appeared weak, and the Democratic base took notice. Demonstrating strength doesn’t require staging a shutdown—but it does require creativity and conviction, both of which Democratic leadership seemed to lack.
2 – Republican Inaction and the “Big-Beautiful Scam” –
Since then, Republicans have failed to follow through on their promises to collaborate with Democrats on multiple issues. Instead, they pushed through what can only be described as a “big-beautiful scam.” If Democrats want to gain ground, they need to clearly communicate this to the American public—especially in the context of the current shutdown.
3 – Schumer’s Need for a Win – Schumer needs a tangible success from this standoff. Even a firm commitment to address healthcare—the issue Democrats have chosen to champion—would count as a win. If he can secure that, he comes out ahead.
4 – Why aren’t democrats messaging that continuing resolution after continuing resolution is poor government. The republicans are in total control here. How is this acceptable? Dems are taking a stand.
@Scott F.:
Which is why I would prefer forcing the Rs to change the rules and making them totally own the whole thing.
The Ds should be unwilling to be complicit and also have the ability to honestly campaign next year that everything is going poorly, unequivocally, Trump’s fault.
Otherwise, I am not sure the shutdown maneuver is worth it (and even what I am suggesting is still a Hail Mary from your own territory–which almost never works).
@Scott F.:
Quite clearly not normal times.
We asked 1,000 Americans who they blame for the shutdown (WaPo)
I read these early results as Dem and indie citizens being really unhappy with how Trump and Republicans are governing — and thus okay with Democrats putting a stick in the spokes. How long will that last tho?
Also, it’s obvious Schumer and Jeffries did not want this and have forced into it by an angry, restless base — who themselves don’t have a clue what to do besides impotently tweet “DO SOMETHING!!11!!”
The question pollsters should be asking is “Do you blame Trump and Republicans or do you blame Democratic voters who spend too much time online, and progressives who routinely withhold their votes from Democrats?”
Of course Schumer cannot message this shutdown properly: shutdowns harm vulnerable people, and Schumer is a rich white guy who still chooses to be a Democrat, so he is morally opposed to shutdowns.
His heart is not in it. To his credit.
The truth is, Schumer was right in the Spring to do the unpopular thing and stick to the core principle that Democrats are not for shutdowns. But the Democrat Derangement Syndrome groupthink right now is that Democratic leaders suck about everything, so most lack the guts or honor to say so and admit he was right and they were wrong.
@James Joyner: “The Republicans have voted for a clean CR…”
No such thing – Trump can do as he pleases. When one party will not come honestly to the table, they are to blame.
@Steven L. Taylor:
The Rs changing the rules seems the most likely outcome either way and the end of the filibuster for cloture is probably a good thing on balance. OTOH, anyone making the Rs own a bad outcome is normal politics and I think we are all in agreement that’s not what we have now.
My God, apparently even OTB now thinks that only Democrats have agency, apparently completely forgetting which party turned the filibuster into a tool for the minority to stop the majority in the first place.
I agree I wouldn’t talk about healthcare. Every Democrat should be out there simply saying: “Don’t like the shutdown? Republican President. Republican controlled House. Republican controlled Senate. Republican controlled Supreme Court. You REALLY think this is the Democrat’s fault?” (said in the most sarcastic, are you kidding me tone of voice possible)
It’s a devilishly simple argument. I’m well aware it’s even simplist-IC and not strictly accurate, but since the average American voter is also pretty damned simplistic…
Just spent two weeks in Portugal exploring options about becoming an ex-pat. Found it incredibly depressing how many Portuguese understand American politics better than most Americans do.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Republicans have the votes. It takes 51 votes to kill the filibuster, or carve out an exception for “clean continuing resolutions on October 3rd” or whatever.
Republicans are the only ones who have any power right now. Any power Democrats seem to have is traditional granted by the Republicans.
I see a lot of argument that the Democratic leaders in Congress should “fight harder” and not rely on “normal politics”.
I’d like to tentatively suggest an alternative perspective on the approach.
If the Republicans are going nuts, trying to seem sane and normal may be a good play, if you need to peel off just a few percentages of the wavering centre into your column.
I depends perhaps on whether the likely benfit of enthusing those already inclined to ones side is, or is not, a better approach than winning over those getting fed up with the drama and kayfabe.
Reading more comments, it looks like
@DK:
and
@Just Another Ex-Republican:
are thinking along similar lines?
My doubt about my argument: am I too much inclined to read over UK politics into US situations?
The Conservatives got a hammering at the last general election partly due to the Truss f@ck-up, but also, and related, a sizable desertion of the Conservative for LibDems in key constituencies (also to Reform, but this seems to have cut the vote share more than the seat results) due to the record of Conservative amateur dramatics over a decade.
Does this “fed up centre” vote also hold in the US?
Especially given the far more “two party” nature of US politics?
@JohnSF:
I think the “fed up center” can hold in the US and it would matter in next year’s mid-terms. It remains to be seen that Trump and the Republicans will allow unrigged mid-term elections knowing (as I suspect they do) that they’ve lost the center.
@Just Another Ex-Republican:
Not to be overly sensitive but, I have written about the institutional constraints and structures of American government here for two decades. Maybe I have some credibility on this?
And I have also been exceedingly critical of the administration and the GOP.
Again, do I get no credit for any of that?
@Gustopher:
Indeed. This fact is kind in central to my point.
@JohnSF:
I would counter that that was the exact tactic of the Biden administration and the first Congress elected after Trump. And see where that got us…
@Steven L. Taylor: I apologize Steven, I should not have included that sarcastic snipe. You certainly have all the deserved credibility in the world for understanding how our government *actually* works and I did not intend to insult you in particular or call into question your knowledge or dismiss all the criticism you have targeted at Republicans and Trump.
I would say that politics is only loosely connected to reality (and point to most of the last decade as proof). As you noted in one of your comments the truth is that if 7 Democrats were willing to vote to pass the CR the government would be open. Joyner joined in with his comment about it was clear this shutdown was the D’s fault. Those were the specifics I was reacting to when I got sarcastic about who has agency in this country.
And while you both are correct from a purely factual point of view, if there is anything I’ve learned about American politics and voting the last 10 years is that what people “feel” is much more important than reality.
In many ways I think we are in agreement (such as dismissing the D’s trying to make it about healthcare–I simply don’t care). The D’s have given themselves an incredibly simple message they can hammer the R’s with whenever someone complains about the shutdown. I want the D’s to lean into that for their political messaging, not get caught up in an issue you rightly point out hasn’t actually helped them much recently. As a matter of politics every bit of unhappiness any member of the public has on the shutdown should be pointed at the party with near total control of the government (and skip the word “near”). Let ’em choke on the political reality of filibuster abuse that is almost entirely the fault of the Republican party and a certain a-hole from Kentucky and what they have done since 2010.
The only *political* (not necessarily factual) message D’s should be repeating, over and over, is that there is a Republican President, a Republican House, a Republican Senate, and a Republican Supreme Court. If you’re unhappy about the shutdown or anything else about how things are being done in this country today there is only one party to blame.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Exactly. Why make it about healthcare. If you want to extract something from this administration, have them pass a clean bill with filibuster gone. They can do it. If you truly believe their agenda will (is) harm Americans, which I believe it will, put it on them to remove the filibuster and pass their agenda. They have complete control to do so. Why that is not hammered home I don’t get it.
@Just Another Ex-Republican: Thanks for saying that and I agree on this:
Especially as follows:
@Jc:
Yup.