Americans Are Self-Deporting
More Americans are living abroad than ever. Probably.
A WSJ report claims “Americans Are Leaving the U.S. in Record Numbers.”
Last year the U.S. experienced something that hasn’t definitively occurred since the Great Depression: More people moved out than moved in. The Trump administration has hailed the exodus—negative net migration—as the fulfillment of its promise to ramp up deportations and restrict new visas. Beneath the stormy optics of that immigration crackdown, however, lies a less-noticed reversal: America’s own citizens are leaving in record numbers, replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable and safe.
The conclusion is, by necessity, anecdotal:
Since the Eisenhower administration, the U.S. hasn’t collected comprehensive statistics on the number of citizens leaving. Yet data on residence permits, foreign home purchases, student enrollments and other metrics from more than 50 countries show that Americans are voting with their feet to an unprecedented degree. A millions-strong diaspora is studying, telecommuting and retiring overseas.
Without centrally-collected data, we really don’t know for sure how many Americans are living abroad. And, of course, “record numbers” are bound to occur simply given the rapid increase in the overall population.
Regardless, the anecdotes are persuasive:
In the cobblestoned streets of Lisbon, so many Americans are snapping up apartments that the newest arrivals complain they mostly hear their own language—not Portuguese. One of every 15 residents in Dublin’s trendy Grand Canal Dock district was born in the U.S., according to realtors, higher than the percentage of Americans born in Ireland during the 19th-century influx following the Potato Famine. In Bali, Colombia and Thailand, the strains of housing American remote workers paid in dollars have inspired locals to mount protests against a wave of gentrification.
More than 100,000 young students are enrolled abroad for a more affordable university degree. In nursing homes mushrooming across the Mexican border, elderly Americans are turning up for low-cost care.
Retiring to cheaper foreign countries isn’t a new phenomenon, of course. But it’s almost certainly easier to do so now with so much of our connectivity taking place via the Internet and our mobile devices. And the ability to telecommute allows the freedom to make big city American wages without the high cost of living.
Some commentators have labeled this wave of American emigrants the “Donald Dash” since numbers have spiked under President Trump’s second term. But the phenomenon has been building for years—fed by the rise of remote work, mounting living costs and an appetite for foreign lifestyles that feel within reach, especially in Europe.
We have multiple regular commenters at this blog who have become expats at least partly because of the atmosphere Trump has created but, yes, there are multiple other factors at work.
It’s a complicated thing to pull off. There’s the issue of long-term stay visas. In Europe if you don’t have a long-term stay visa you’re up against the madness of Schengen which absolutely requires a special app to do the math. Then there’s the issue of becoming a tax resident – 183 days in-country and in Portugal you’re looking at 48% which is more than the top US rate of 37%. Also there are little surprises like cap gains taxes that are significant but in some cases below the threshold of deductibility in the US and thus must be paid.
It has all gotten way more complicated. In 2008 we got an Italian visa quickly and easily. But the laws Europeans pass to keep out Turks and African immigrants also keep out ‘expats.’ Which seems unfair given that we came up with a whole different word for immigrant.
And as for cheap? Not our experience in Estoril, a posh suburb of Lisbon. We’re heading back for part of April, then June and some of July. But after that, tapping out on this round of Portugal – we got caught in the bureaucracy which shifted from one agency to another and promptly broke down. Looking at alternatives. DAFT is a possibility – a special visa for Americans who will do business in Netherlands. Or we can try for a ‘talent’ visa in UK or France.
For us the biggest limiting factor is weather. We hate, hate, hate overcast, rainy weather, which casts a pall over the UK, certainly, but Netherlands isn’t exactly Cabo, either. If we weren’t such pussies about sunshine we’d go for London, but we are. The only ‘heritage’ visa available to me is Israel and despite the abundant sunshine, um, no thanks.
Hm. I wonder if we can now round up random white people who don’t speak Spanish and send them to “safe” third countries like Afghanistan…. Many of them are bound to be MAGAt tourists.
I get it. I don’t like it. I wish I could make it stop.
All of the people I know doing it are people that make America better. And they are leaving.
Dammit.