A weaker-than-expected report for February showed a decline of 92,000 jobs, and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent.
For anyone not trained in reading graphs, there has been a precipitous drop-off in jobs ever since Trump took office. It’s as if causing a lot of uncertainty in the broader economy via tariffs while doing one’s best to utterly upturn the foundations of the global economy, is bad for Americans.
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Looks like Trump jumped the gun in firing the Labor Department official whose responsibility was to report jobs numbers. My immediate reaction to that firing was to assume that the jobs numbers would henceforth be cooked to please the Orange Emperor. Keeping that thought as still more than a bit plausible, the numbers being released – as bad as they are – are likely a sugarcoating of the true state of affairs.
Yet another triumph for the zombie myth that reducing tax rates on the wealthy causes economic expansion. The last time that worked was JFK’s proposal, which reduced the top marginal tax rate from 91% to 65%.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated 55,000 new positions after January’s surprise print of 130,000 payrolls. Those gains were also revised lower by 4,000 positions, while December’s previously reported addition of 48,000 jobs was updated to a loss of 17,000 — a combined culling of 69,000 roles from the last two employment reports.
And then there is this number which potentially is scarier:
The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, while the share of people who have been without work for 27 weeks or more as a percentage of all unemployed hit 25.3%.
It’s probably worse than it looks as the LFPR (labor force participation rate) has been dropping pretty rapidly. If people weren’t dropping out of the labor market the UE rate would probably be over 5%. Looking at some of the details I think it’s even more concerning. We are seeing decreases in manufacturing at the same time policy is supposed to be encouraging that area. Employment opportunities are also worst for people looking for jobs and we know that unemployment at the start of a working career has hold over effects. Looking at hiring vs firing numbers we are seeing almost no hiring vs no firing ie a no employment growth environment. That is not sustainable.
Like everyone else I thought it was funny that even with his handpicked guy Trump is still getting bad numbers. However, while watching CNBC this morning I noted that the new leadership Trump chose claimed that unemployment “edged down” when in fact it was the largest drop in 5 years. So if they cant make the numbers look better they will spin the messaging.
My question is this: are social/product “influencers” actually employed? Like at a “job?” That actually contributes to a sustainable economy? (if not to a positive “headspace” of our culture?)
Because, howdy boy, that seems to be a “growth” industry these days. Even kids are finding “work” doing “influencing.” (Mowing the lawn and babysitting is so last century).
The “money for nothing, chicks for free” ethos seems to be proceeding apace, even as the “flip this house” schema is in the toilet. I mean, to have a viable economy, people have to make things, other than just war materiel, of course.
@Rob1: Influencers are paid salesmen. Sales, marketing, and product placement has always been a thing. Repackaging this as just your buddy from online doing nothing at all — so “followers” often don’t know they’re being groomed to desire and hopefully eventually buy stuff/services — is pretty clever, somewhat sinister.
So, yes, they do contribute to the economy. Companies have influencer budgets, to place and market their junk.
@Rob1:
@Michael Reynolds:
Given how many “influencers” appear to be currently resident in Dubai and Abu Dhabi …
Can you spell “schadenfreude”?
I think it roughly translates as “Sucks to be you, b!tch. Lol!”
Looks like Trump jumped the gun in firing the Labor Department official whose responsibility was to report jobs numbers. My immediate reaction to that firing was to assume that the jobs numbers would henceforth be cooked to please the Orange Emperor. Keeping that thought as still more than a bit plausible, the numbers being released – as bad as they are – are likely a sugarcoating of the true state of affairs.
Yet another triumph for the zombie myth that reducing tax rates on the wealthy causes economic expansion. The last time that worked was JFK’s proposal, which reduced the top marginal tax rate from 91% to 65%.
Ann Telnaes on one job loss
Always got to look at the revisions also.
And then there is this number which potentially is scarier:
Some of us are old enough to remember stagflation.
It’s probably worse than it looks as the LFPR (labor force participation rate) has been dropping pretty rapidly. If people weren’t dropping out of the labor market the UE rate would probably be over 5%. Looking at some of the details I think it’s even more concerning. We are seeing decreases in manufacturing at the same time policy is supposed to be encouraging that area. Employment opportunities are also worst for people looking for jobs and we know that unemployment at the start of a working career has hold over effects. Looking at hiring vs firing numbers we are seeing almost no hiring vs no firing ie a no employment growth environment. That is not sustainable.
Like everyone else I thought it was funny that even with his handpicked guy Trump is still getting bad numbers. However, while watching CNBC this morning I noted that the new leadership Trump chose claimed that unemployment “edged down” when in fact it was the largest drop in 5 years. So if they cant make the numbers look better they will spin the messaging.
Steve
The nest thing you know, the felon will be peddling WIN buttons.
My question is this: are social/product “influencers” actually employed? Like at a “job?” That actually contributes to a sustainable economy? (if not to a positive “headspace” of our culture?)
Because, howdy boy, that seems to be a “growth” industry these days. Even kids are finding “work” doing “influencing.” (Mowing the lawn and babysitting is so last century).
The “money for nothing, chicks for free” ethos seems to be proceeding apace, even as the “flip this house” schema is in the toilet. I mean, to have a viable economy, people have to make things, other than just war materiel, of course.
@Sleeping Dog:
Goes well with “Just Say No.”
And Meth: We’re on it!
Republicans are so full of it — ideas.
@Rob1:
I expect the influencer economy to behave like a fad and collapse.
@Rob1: Influencers are paid salesmen. Sales, marketing, and product placement has always been a thing. Repackaging this as just your buddy from online doing nothing at all — so “followers” often don’t know they’re being groomed to desire and hopefully eventually buy stuff/services — is pretty clever, somewhat sinister.
So, yes, they do contribute to the economy. Companies have influencer budgets, to place and market their junk.
@Rob1: people are also leaving real world jobs to become professional gamblers.
Prediction markets are crack for roided up risk takers.
Entirely predictable based only on the fact that Fatso thinks the stock market IS THE ECONOMY.
Worst.
Jobs.
President.
EVER!!!
Just wait till the Hormuz closure price spikes hit.
That will be be fun.
For an arbitrary value of “fun”.
@Rob1:
@Michael Reynolds:
Given how many “influencers” appear to be currently resident in Dubai and Abu Dhabi …
Can you spell “schadenfreude”?
I think it roughly translates as “Sucks to be you, b!tch. Lol!”