Outside the Beltway

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1. charontwo says:
   Friday, 13 March 2026 at 06:29

   Trump is shooting his mouth off in ways that show Iran its path to winning.

   Here is how little weak countries beat big strong countries at war, merely by persisting:

   “Link1”

   “Link2”

   Link1:

   Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote that war is “a contest of wills.” Not a contest of bombs. Not a contest of slick Pentagon graphics or dramatic night-vision footage on cable news. A contest of wills. The side that demonstrates greater resolve over time wins.

   Which brings us to Operation Epic Fury, the Trump administration’s strike campaign against Iran and its proxy network.

   …

   Third, and this is where the Clausewitzian alarm bells start ringing, the administration keeps telegraphing that the war will end soon. The president has repeatedly suggested that once the strike packages are finished, things will wrap up.

   That is wonderful news if you are sitting in Tehran.

   Because if your enemy publicly announces the war will end shortly, the obvious strategy is to hunker down and wait.

   We have seen this movie before.

   When President Obama announced the troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009, he also announced the withdrawal timeline. The message to the Taliban was crystal clear: survive the surge and the Americans will leave.

   So the Taliban did exactly what any rational insurgent movement would do. They hunkered down in Pakistan and waited us out.

   Iran’s leadership understands this dynamic perfectly. They have been playing the long game against the United States for forty years. Waiting out American political attention spans is practically a national sport in Tehran.

   Link2

   In the early commentary surrounding the conflict with Iran, much of the language was confident, almost casual. The assumption was that American technological superiority, precision strikes, intelligence dominance, and overwhelming firepower, would allow the United States to move quickly and decisively. It would be a short war. We would impose our will, break their capacity to resist, and move on. But wars do not end when one side decides they should. Wars end only when both sides agree the war is over.

   Wars, despite the best efforts of the well-intentioned international community, do not have referees.

   That reality creates an entirely different strategic logic for the weaker side. Much like the overmatched fighter in the ring, Iran does not necessarily have to win outright. For now, it simply has to avoid losing. Every day the conflict continues becomes a success.

   Every time you click on a link to see what happened in the Iran War today, it is a victory. Because this was a war of choice, where “we have the watches, but they have the time.”

   The objective shifts away from decisive victory and toward endurance. The weaker side slows the tempo, absorbs punishment, provokes mistakes, and drags the stronger opponent into a contest of time and pain tolerance. It is the geopolitical version of the dirty fight. You make the stronger opponent work at a pace that erodes his advantages. You frustrate him. You provoke overreach. You force him to expend resources and patience while the clock of American public opinion keeps ticking.

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2. charontwo says:
   Friday, 13 March 2026 at 06:36

   https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/12/kc-135-crash-iraq-iran/

   4 dead after U.S. Air Force refueler crashes in Iraq while supporting Iran war

   The KC-135 tanker, which had a crew of six, was involved in an apparent accident with another KC-135. The other aircraft landed safely, officials said.

   Four service members died after a U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq on Thursday while supporting operations in Iran, military officials said.

   Rescue efforts were still underway for the remaining two crew members, U.S. Central Command said, after an apparent mid-air accident between two U.S. Air Force KC-135 tanker aircraft.

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