Outside the Beltway

Wars Have Consequences

Energy prices are likely to be effected for some time.

Steven L. Taylor · Thursday, March 19, 2026 · 4 comments

Trump once said that “trade wars are good and easy to win,” which was a foolishly incorrect statement. However, as bad as trade wars are, shooting wars are even worse and harder to win than they might seem if one thinks that Top Gun is some kind of documentary.

Reuters reports: Exclusive: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says.

Iranian attacks have knocked ‌out 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy’s CEO told Reuters on Thursday.

Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities were damaged in the unprecedented strikes. The repairs ​will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of LNG for three to five years, he said in an interview.

Note that this affects a number of our allies:

State-owned QatarEnergy will have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China due to the two damaged trains, Kaabi said.

One suspects, by the way, that the beneficiary of this will be Russia, which will be to Ukraine’s detriment.

Meanwhile:

The fallout extends well beyond LNG. Qatar’s exports of condensate will drop by ​around 24%, while liquefied ⁠petroleum gas (LPG) will fall 13%. Helium output will fall 14%, and naphtha and sulphur will both drop by 6%.

Those losses have implications ranging from LPG used in restaurants in India to South Korea’s chipmakers which use helium.

The damaged units cost approximately $26 billion to build, Kaabi said.

Note that we have only been at this for less than three weeks.

As Iran grows more desperate to force the US to stop, the more they will be tempted to attack more energy infrastructure.

And, of course, Israel is attacking Iranian energy infrastructure as well, which will also damage global supply. Of course, fear not, because Trump is warning them to stop via social media, as all serious presidents do.

This really is the dumbest timeline.