Trump Job Approval Sinks Further
An unpopular war and sagging economy are driving down already low ratings.
NYT (“Trump’s Approval Sinks Amid Unpopular War, Darkening G.O.P. Prospects“):
Most voters think President Trump made the wrong decision to go to war with Iran, a New York Times/Siena poll found, leaving the Republican Party on rocky political footing heading into the midterm elections as his approval rating sinks and economic concerns rise.
Majorities of voters said that the war was not worth the costs and held deeply pessimistic views about the economy.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating — a key historical predictor of how a president’s party will fare in an election — has sunk to a second-term low in Times/Siena polls of 37 percent amid the deeply unpopular Middle East conflict.
Nearly two-thirds of voters said that going to war had been the wrong decision, including almost three-quarters of politically crucial independents. Less than a quarter of all voters thought the conflict had been worth the costs.
Republicans broadly approved of Mr. Trump’s job performance and the war. But most other voters showed serious skepticism of his leadership on other top issues, including the economy and the cost of living. Sixty-four percent of all voters disapproved of his handling of the economy, long a strength for him, and majorities expressed negative views of how he was managing the cost of living, immigration and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Independent voters in particular have become unhappier with Mr. Trump. Sixty-nine percent disapproved of his job performance, up from 62 percent in a January Times/Siena poll. Forty-seven percent of independents said his policies had hurt them, up from 41 percent in fall 2025.
Overall, 44 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had hurt them personally, up from 36 percent last fall.
Their chief political analyst, Nate Cohn (“A Crack in the Polling Floor Puts Trump in New Territory“):
Over the last decade, it’s often been said that President Trump’s support has a low ceiling but a high floor.
In this morning’s latest New York Times/Siena poll, whether Mr. Trump really has a high floor is starting to be put to the test.
Just 37 percent of Americans approve of his performance as president, a drop of four percentage points from the last Times/Siena poll in January and his lowest approval rating in any Times/Siena survey in either term.
A four-point decline isn’t necessarily huge, but it puts Mr. Trump’s ratings in new political territory. While recent presidencies have often been unpopular and polarizing, no president’s approval rating has been under 38 percent for more than a few days in the last 17 years, according to our average. If there has been a floor during this partisan era of politics, Mr. Trump’s ratings today have fallen to it.
Cohn, of course, knows that taking a single poll, especially one with a 3.4% margin of sampling error, and extrapolating too much. Looking at the RealClearPolitics average, we see that the numbers are not historically bad by Trump standards:
Indeed, the second term trend has been so constant that I’m surprised by how little an unpopular war and a near doubling of gas prices have impacted it.
Still, Cohn is likely right here:
As in other recent Times/Siena polls, the survey found that young and nonwhite voters have snapped back toward the left. Democrats have regained their usual, pre-Biden advantage among both groups in the race for control of Congress as well as in party identification. Mr. Trump’s approval rating among both groups is abysmal: Among voters 18 to 29 years old, only 19 percent approve of his performance; just 20 percent of Hispanic voters say the same.
While some of the social issues resonated with a segment of Black and Hispanic men, other events during this presidency have surely soured many of them.
I’m more skeptical here, though:
The possibility that Mr. Trump’s floor is cracking raises the prospect of even more significant, longer-term political consequences. If the war and high prices persist, Mr. Trump’s troubles could start to look less like other recent polarizing presidencies and more like those of George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Lyndon Johnson or Harry Truman, in which quagmire abroad and economic challenges at home did significant political damage to their parties.
Indeed, Cohn sort of anticipates the obvious rejoinder:
Of course, Iran is not doomed to be another Iraq, Vietnam or Korea. For now, there’s a cease-fire; there could be a diplomatic solution at any time. If prior wars are any indication, Mr. Trump has time to resolve these challenges before his approval ratings fall into the lower 30s or beyond.
Unless we send in ground forces in significant numbers, this war is nothing like those. The combat losses, while tragic and needless, have been modest. The main issue, really, has been the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting uptick in gas prices and their ripple effects throughout the economy.
And, while this seems plausible
If the conflict lasts long enough for Mr. Trump to keep bleeding support, Republicans might face something a lot worse than a bad midterm. A midterm defeat was likely even before the war began — it’s the usual fate of parties in power, after all — but the president’s party usually rebounds relative to that for the next presidential election. If Mr. Trump’s approval rating stays in the 30s, it won’t be so easy to assume Republicans will rebound. In the polling era, there are no examples of the president’s party retaining the White House when the president’s approval rating is under 40 percent. More often, the election is a rout.
I’ve all but given up on predicting the behavior of the American electorate. Trump was wildly unpopular in 2016, and in 2024 won the election—albeit with a popular vote deficit of nearly 3 million the first time. Given how few states are in play, and not knowing who the rabid partisans who participate in presidential primaries will nominate, I’m more than a little hesitant to extrapolate the current mood to an election two and a half years into the future.
If you don’t mind, I’d like to reprint what I wrote in the Open Thread today, because it’s directly relevant to this topic:
Yesterday, I checked and discovered that Trump’s current approval ratings according to RCP’s average are significantly worse than they were at this point in his first term (May 2018):
This point in his first term: 43.3% approve, 52.3% disapprove (-9)
His approval on RCP now: 40.1% approve, 56.9% disapprove (-16.8)
A few months ago this wasn’t the case. His approval ratings were bad, but slightly better than they had been at the same point in his first term.
But one thing that has been distinctly noticeable for a while is how much his approval numbers on the economy–which had been break-even to positive during his entire first term–utterly collapsed in about mid- to late-2025 and have not recovered. He was disliked for reasons other than the economy. That is no longer the case.
This should mean Republicans are in for a bigger walloping than they took in 2018. But it’s hard to know how much the uber-gerrymandering and vote suppression will come into play. Also, the post-election narratives are often flawed in how they read the results. Let’s say Dems enjoy a net gain of 25 seats in the House. That might seem relatively modest compared to their 40-seat gain in 2018. But since they’re starting off with more seats, they’d end up with a bigger majority than the one they acquired in 2018. The focus in most midterm analysis is on number of seats gained, when total number of seats possessed at the end is at least as important.
Such negative coverage, when El Taco is on track to achieve the highest disapproval rate ever!
@Kathy:
Many people are saying he’s a fucking disaster.
Fake News!!! The latest polling numbers are tremendous, absolutely tremendous. People all across the country are seeing what’s happening, they know what a disaster I inherited from Sleepy Joe Biden, they now see how secure the border is, and how respected America is on the world stage under Donald J. Trump. We have obliterated Iran, who is BEGGING me for a deal, which I won’t agree to until they promise NO MORE NUKES!!! The fake news and the so-called experts said it couldn’t happen, now Iran has no Navy, no missles, no Army. We killed their leadership, and they want to make a deal with President Donald J Trump. All the polls are showing huge support from workers, suburban families, Hispanics, Black voters, young people — everybody. We’re the hottest country in the world. Everyone wants to come here. But they can’t because Trump shut down the border. The radical Left Lunatic Dems, who want men in women’s sports, who want DEI for everything, want Iran to have nuclear weapon. THAT CANNOT HAPPEN!!! Americans are tired of WEAKNESS AND FAILURE. They want strength, success, and common sense back in the White House. The poll numbers are proof that the silent majority is louder than ever, and we’re just getting started. Thank you for your attention to this matter.