Are the Democrats Solving Their Dilemma? [Updated]
The number of scenarios has diminished.
So, over the last week or so I have written a couple of posts (here and here) on where the Democratic Party stood in relationship to the question of their presidential candidate. The scenarios were as follows:
- The party rallies around Biden.
- The party fights with Biden to get him to step down.
- Biden gracefully steps away and hands the baton to Harris.
- There is a floor fight to choose someone after Biden exits (without or without a “mini-primary” as some have suggested).
Earlier today, Biden eliminated #1 and stopped #2 from continuing. The cessation of #2 is an unalloyed good for the party as if it persisted (and I was afraid that it was going to for at least another week as Biden tried to prove himself on the campaign trail) then that would have done noting but do serious damage.
As I noted yesterday, late last week I thought Biden was going to drop out and then the reporting suggesting he was staying in. As such, I am both not surprised and surprised (is there a word for that?). I suppose I am more surprised than not insofar it is a historically unprecedented action. No candidate has withdrawn this late in the process and the last sitting president not to seek re-election was LBJ before I was born.
Back to the list: it looks like we are heading for #3 and not #4.
Biden has stepped aside and has endorsed Harris (I briefly was concerned we were heading for #4 when his initial letter did not contain an endorsement, but my concerns were quickly allayed). But, of course, that does not utter preclude a fight. However, for there to be a fight there has to be a serious contender. Biden’s endorsement of Harris should squelch serious contenders from entering the contest. And the more the party leaders and donors coalesce around Harris, the less chances for #4 to emerge.
So far we know the following.
- The Clintons have endorsed Harris.
- The Tennessee delegates to the DNC have voted to support Harris, becoming the first delegation to do so.
- Pelosi, Obama, Newsom, Whitmer, Pritzger, and Shapiro have not yet endorsed Harris (but it is early yet).
- NYT reports on donor optimism over Harris.
It will take a couple of days to see if anyone decides it is worth trying to fight, but I am guessing Harris will have sufficient headwinds to avoid #4.
As they say: developing.
Update.
Shapiro:
BTW, I don’t think the lack of immediate endorsements by anyone in particular is significant, at least not this soon after the announcement.
Also, Warren:
And Schiff (which means a Pelosi endorsement can’t be too far away):
And Katie Porter:
More:
Will it solve their dilemma and propel them to a successful convention and victory in November? Maybe, maybe not.
But … I do not see that there was any other path out of Biden’s self-inflicted debate disaster. Joe did what’s right, and he did the strategically correct thing by supporting Kamala Harris:
This should be enough respect paid to James Clyburn, the Black Caucus, and their Black voting block. Joe had to do this, and he did it well.
The truly interesting stuff – getting progressives to unite behind the selection of a Vice President for the ticket- is where the action will be.
This is the most positive I’ve felt about the Democratic Party’s chances in many months.
This is as good a place as any…
Annnnnd their off…
Let the rat f***ing begin!
@al Ameda:
An open question, to be sure.
But the dilemma created by the debate and then Dem elites trying to get Biden to step aside, has mostly been solved.
@al Ameda:
Jayapal and Ilhan Omar have endorsed Harris. As has Adam Schiff. AOC was warning of “elites” that wanted to push Biden AND Harris off the ticket a few days ago, and how that would bring chaos and defeat, so I’ll take that as a likely endorsement.
Meanwhile, Manchin wants an open process, preferring a governor or someone who won’t divide the country by race and gender. Tester stopped short of an endorsement.
The left is far more aligned than the “moderate” democrats.
The masters are speaking but will their villeins fall in line?
Two more events to cause Democrats and those leaning Democrat to stop and think. First, Old Joe bows out. Second, the “How Could You?” not vote for Kamala.
Kamala is likely to reduce the Jewish vote with her support for the campus Brownshirts.
The Black vote will be interesting. It was a bit ago, but I saw the comment that the black voters voted for Biden in 2020, but hate Kamala. That could change things up.
On the upside, Kamala should have the Antifa/BLM vote, after all she paid their bail when they were burning cities in 2020. Well, the black areas of cities.
Fun times. Voting starts in 60 days.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
Johnson is talking nonsense, of course. There wasn’t (and still isn’t) an official nominee. But Alito et. al. make it scarier than it should be.
@JKB:
So . . . You got nothing substantive.
Just tired talking points, spin-cycled bullshit about recent events, vague memories, and suppositions about your opps.
And of course, you visit a place daily where people across the aisle explain themselves to you, and your response to those explanations is tired talking points, spin-cycled bullshit about recent events, vague memories, and suppositions about your opps
Never change, bud; never change.
Joe is the ultimate deal maker. I expect he lined up support for Harris from those pols urging him to withdraw as a condition of his agreeing to step aside.
@Gustopher: “Meanwhile, Manchin wants an open process, preferring a governor or someone who won’t divide the country by race and gender”
Or, to translate that into English, Manchin wants a white man. Preferably him, but if not then some other white dude, the more conservative the better.
Maybe it’s just relief from the last three weeks of drama, but I sense more enthusiasm from Democrats than I have in a long time. If they smoothly coalesce behind Harris, they have a good shot at this. She’s awkward a lot of times but hey so was Bush and he got elected twice (sorta).
@JKB: Tell us, JKB, are a candidate’s age and inability to speak a simple declarative sentence without descending into gibberish still issues for you?
@wr: Seems like someone should point out to Manchin that the Democratic nomination process is of no concern to him since he isn’t a Democrat
@a country lawyer:
After the news broke, I thought it about that. It’s quite possible that Biden knew what he should do as early as last week–the early reports Taylor references–but needed to do some housekeeping within the party first.
It makes a ton of sense I think light of the reports then counter-reports. It would have been truly unwise to announce his decision before he could plan out the next few weeks.
ETA: More like sketch a rough plan for the next few weeks.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
I don’t know why you are so opposed to the idea that charging a former President for crimes that left a clear and obvious trail of evidence is election interference, but threatening court action, after a presumptive incumbent voluntarily deciding not to seek election is fair.
I mean, come on, you sheep.
There’s a contingent that has nothing but scorn for the old guard but they are doing a pretty damn good job of keeping this from turning into a shit show. I’m totally impressed by how many they got lined up up so quickly.
@Mike Schilling: Sure. But the whole Republican Party has been talking nonsense for most of 50 years most of the time, so the fact that Johnson’s talking nonsense may well be immaterial.
@MarkedMan: So am I. I may well be wrong about liberals this time.
@JKB:
Bingo!
You (and Matt Walsh on Twitter) helped me hit dog whistle bingo!
In addition to your DEI post from that other thread, this gives me “not really black” (which we haven’t heard since the Obama “hafrican” years), “anti-Jewsish” (despite being married to a… check notes… Jewish person), and “loves Antifa” (despite being a Prosecutor who Tulsi Gabbard says was… checks notes… too tough on crime).
Anyway, I really thought it would take me more than 24 hours, but I should have had more faith in you! Now I get that free post-birth abortion coupon I have been wanting!
Just occurred to me:
I wonder if the reason Shapiro’s endorsement came so quickly is because he’s Harris’s VP nominee and had it written before the announcement?
@Stormy Dragon:
Could very well be.
I am of the opinion that because swing states Michigan and Pennsylvania are crucial to Democratic Party success in November that either Governor Whitmer or Governor Shapiro, are likely candidates for the Ticket.
Long shots might include Governors Breshear of Kentucky or Cooper of North Carolina although electorally or with rank and file Democrats it’s hard to see what those two bring.