So, over the last week or so I have written a couple of posts (here and here) on where the Democratic Party stood in relationship to the question of their presidential candidate. The scenarios were as follows:
- The party rallies around Biden.
- The party fights with Biden to get him to step down.
- Biden gracefully steps away and hands the baton to Harris.
- There is a floor fight to choose someone after Biden exits (without or without a “mini-primary” as some have suggested).
Earlier today, Biden eliminated #1 and stopped #2 from continuing. The cessation of #2 is an unalloyed good for the party as if it persisted (and I was afraid that it was going to for at least another week as Biden tried to prove himself on the campaign trail) then that would have done noting but do serious damage.
As I noted yesterday, late last week I thought Biden was going to drop out and then the reporting suggesting he was staying in. As such, I am both not surprised and surprised (is there a word for that?). I suppose I am more surprised than not insofar it is a historically unprecedented action. No candidate has withdrawn this late in the process and the last sitting president not to seek re-election was LBJ before I was born.
Back to the list: it looks like we are heading for #3 and not #4.
Biden has stepped aside and has endorsed Harris (I briefly was concerned we were heading for #4 when his initial letter did not contain an endorsement, but my concerns were quickly allayed). But, of course, that does not utter preclude a fight. However, for there to be a fight there has to be a serious contender. Biden’s endorsement of Harris should squelch serious contenders from entering the contest. And the more the party leaders and donors coalesce around Harris, the less chances for #4 to emerge.
So far we know the following.
- The Clintons have endorsed Harris.
- The Tennessee delegates to the DNC have voted to support Harris, becoming the first delegation to do so.
- Pelosi, Obama, Newsom, Whitmer, Pritzger, and Shapiro have not yet endorsed Harris (but it is early yet).
- NYT reports on donor optimism over Harris.
It will take a couple of days to see if anyone decides it is worth trying to fight, but I am guessing Harris will have sufficient headwinds to avoid #4.
As they say: developing.
Update.
Shapiro:
BTW, I don’t think the lack of immediate endorsements by anyone in particular is significant, at least not this soon after the announcement.
Also, Warren:
And Schiff (which means a Pelosi endorsement can’t be too far away):
And Katie Porter:
More:
