The Democrats’ Dilemma
A basic run down and rannking.
I don’t have time to necessarily flesh all this out, but instead of a comment to the previous post, this is more a post in and of itself.
Let’s run down the scenarios.
- The party rallies around Biden.
- The party fights with Biden to get him to step down.
- Biden gracefully steps away and hands the baton to Harris.
- There is a floor fight to choose someone after Biden exits (without or without a “mini-primary” as some have suggested).
I think #4 is simply not going to happen, so shouldn’t be part of any rational conversation. That’s the multiverse of madness option that may be fun to discuss but that’s all it’s good for.
So, the question is, what is the rank order for which we should prefer? “We” in this case being anyone who wants Trump to lose.
Let’s start with the worst one. That would be #2, which is where we seem to be. A semi-private, but actually public fight means that the party is divided and at this point almost guaranteed to have unhappy factions going into the general election campaign that officially starts in just over a month (but which has unofficially been going on for quite some time).
The question becomes, which of #1 or #3 is best? Both are better than #2. I will confess, I don’t know (and nobody else does, either). It is a roll of the dice. Both have downsides. #3 has more potential upside and downside.
Note: one can have a good faith preference for #1 or #3. But having a fight over that good faith preference leads to #2.
The problem continues to be you only get #3 if Biden cooperates. Anything other than his full cooperation leads to #2.
And #2 is the worst possible outcome.
All I can say, is that the Democrats better get this straightened out PDQ, else they are going to guarantee a fifth option: Trump back in the White House.
BTW, if you put a gun to my head and made me choose, at any given moment I might go #1 or #3. But, again, you have got to avoid #2. And I suppose I mostly seem to default to #1 because I don’t see Biden cooperating with #3.
2 is running its course right now. Yes, it’s a shxt show, but it had to go there first.
It will be salvaged by the party and media to 3 very soon.
#2 is a fact, it’s happening.
Given #2, #1 is probably doomed to failure. Leaving #3 as the best available option.
And let’s remember the money. Because Biden is losing donors – donors who will jump back in for Kamala. You can’t win without money, especially when your candidate can’t do much campaigning.
One other thing. There is the interest of the country, and Harris is clearly more likely to be able to function fully as POTUS, should we win.
Christ on a crutch. Or Judas Iscariot on roller skates. Your pick, but Luddite is SOOOOO fracking tired of “good people” forming a circular firing squad to ignore the greatest existential threat to our society, and the nation we live in, since the decades long build up to Fort Sumter. Gack!
@Jsck: That would be nice, certainly, but it’s not common for first wave boomers and their adjacent predecessors to graciously submit to the will of others or seek concord. Even the threads here bear witness to the phenomenon.
There isn’t a good option. My best guess is that Biden’s cognitive losses are in the acceleration stage. That he was compensating and pretty functional but with signs of slow steady deterioration for a while. Assuming they are accelerating he cant hold office. If Harris were a star it would make it easier but we know from when she was running for POTUS that she is poor campaigner. However, booting her out will really divide the party. My guess is Biden hangs in. Those of us who think Trump is awful will still vote for him to keep him out of office but the swing voters and those not especially active in politics will just see the oncoming dementia and vote against him.
My trans daughter is moving to Massachusetts (Cambridge) where she thinks she will be safe from the fallout of Trump winning.
Steve
@Flat Earth Luddite: “
The AmericansDemocrats will eventually do the right thing, but not before trying every other option.”@just nutha:
Perhaps. But it’s going to be taken out of his hands. M Reynolds hit on the right point awhile back: money. A point that Obama, Schumer, Pelosi etc all know. And as I pointed out, it’s the down ballot problem they are all grappling with. Dr Taylor is just musing about how it will be done.
The answer is: “in a messy way.” It would have been more elegant for 2 to have been kept under wraps. But it’s Washington. But it all leads t 3.
Yes, and thinking about who “the Democrats” are, it looks like they’re doing just that. They’re not Jaime Harrison, although he’s an important Democrat. I don’t think they’re the big money donors or celebrities. In this case they are the elected leaders who are answerable to their congressional caucus and to the electorate. And those leaders (Schumer, Jeffries, Pelosi, as well as Schiff and others) appear to be in the process of compelling Biden to step aside.
Biden has no intention of stepping aside. So, unless someone is willing to go the 25th Amendment route, the choice is between #1 and #2.
If he’s in serious decline, then Democrats have to pursue the 25th. Otherwise, #1 is the best option.
@Jack: The fact that, as you note, “it’s going to be taken…” yields #2, not #3. Of course, that outcome isn’t problematic for you* given that you’ve been rooting for a shxt show all along.
* Or for me for that matter. I’ll be sad on behalf of the loved ones of MR, Jay, and Steve and for Beth and Stormy (I think), but I’ve lived in this America before and can do so again.
@just nutha: You know, I don’t think it’s just boomers that display this sort of behavior. My field study suggests it is something all humans dabble in.
History could have been very kind to Joe Biden. If he stays in and loses it will be very unkind If he stays in and exhibits further cognitive decline during the campaign it will be brutal. I would hope that those closest to him understand this.
Most Democrats and the public want #3 or #4. It’s actually those who are (more and more) stridently demanding that everyone must support #1 in the name of unity that are the current obstacle that leaves the party in #2.The sooner the #1 people get on board with what the majority wants, the sooner Biden can be convinced to step down.
Josh Marshall yesterday on his blog:
I think at this point the party’s infighting has so badly damaged Biden’s candidacy that the only viable path to victory is for him to step aside in favor of Harris. This wasn’t true a couple weeks ago, when if they had solidified behind Biden there would have been a chance to move forward with him. Too late for that now, I fear.
At this point, A Trump presidency is probably needed to sweep aside the current group of Dem power players. It’s clear they neither believe, nor fear the ramifications of swamping the ONLY candidate their hodge podge of factions will tolerate.
Harris lacks the personal charisma to overcome the smear machine that’s painted her as a smiling diva that slept her way to the top.
The time to groom candidates was 6-7 YEARS ago. But the same Dem leadership that trashes Biden did nothing to provide exposure and/or recruit new talent. Pot meet Kettle.
You can’t claim to be Party over Country when the only beef you have with Biden is he doesn’t deliver the Zingers Dems want to hear on the campaign trail and debates. Corny one-liners that frankly no one but white liberals think are funny or effective/persuasive.
I will seriously consider staying home this Nov because White folks in the Dem party have clearly lost their minds. We survived Slavery and Jim Crow so we’ll survive Trump. Probably better to let the White folks sort out their civil war and reevaluate in 2028 which side has its shit together
@Andy:
But, and this has been my point all along, is that by definition the most powerful part of the party (the Biden faction) was going to behave this way. Hence, there risk of any other faction pushing #3 leads to #2. The only way you get to #3 is in the hands of the Biden faction, not anyone else.
I say this not as a preference, but as a fact.
Escaping the gravitational pull of the Earth requires certain amounts of thrust. Wishing need not apply.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Sure, and by the same token, other factions are going to act in their interests, especially those who are increasingly coming to believe that Biden’s weakness will have negative effects in down-ballot races, causing Democrats to lose not only the Presidency but also the House and Senate. And the “Biden faction” appears to be bleeding support.
If Biden were handily winning right now, none of this would be an issue—but he’s not, and the Biden faction is unable to provide any coherent roadmap or theory for how he can overcome his various political problems.
@Jim Brown 32: Blaming “white folks” for thinking Harris has a better chance to win than Biden is an interesting take.
@mcnp: To some extent this is true, but that’s a bit like blaming Chamberlain for Hitler’s evil.
At some point Trump owns his words and actions, regardless of who failed to stop him
@Andy: Bless their hearts for thinking all it takes is being extraordinarily accomplished for black people and especially black women to break through plexiglass ceilings.
It’s nice to live in a bubble
@Jim Brown 32: I agree with you on Harris not being an exceptional candidate. I haven’t heard the “slept her way to the top” stuff though.
But if you look at the D fundraising stuff I see on YouTube, the most frequent pitch is from Obama. I see a fair bit from Biden, and very few from Harris. The way YouTube works, the way this whole advertising thing works, is that they show the ones that raise the most money and have the most impact. My conclusion is that my personal view of Harris’ ability as a candidate (which has nothing at all to do with her worth as a human being!) is that she doesn’t connect to the public through video as effectively as a President needs to. Maybe not in a personal campaign event, either. She really didn’t have much opportunity to develop it, though Obama only had maybe a bit more.
@Mikey: God bless Josh Marshall. I couldn’t agree more. People need to stop acting like losers. We’re in a tough spot, but we can get through this. When you get knocked down, get back up.
If you aren’t willing to suffer for your principles, they aren’t really principles.
@Jay L Gischer:
It is rampant and will be more visible should she become the nominee.
I’m amazed at the number of commenters who seem to assume that if Trump wins, we will have government in which a robust opposition party can run against the MAGA candidate in 2028. Maybe that is what motivates me to support Options 3 or 4. We’ve been fighting a undeclared cold civil war for over a decade. If we don’t do everything in our legal power to avoid Trump’s re-election, we will have willingly handed over the reins to autocracy. Even Germany didn’t elect Hitler. But we will have elected Trump.
538 currently shows Biden with a 52% chance of winning. Note this is probability of election, not preference poll numbers. It accounts for the electoral college and also includes a contribution from “basics models”, mostly economic, besides current polling. Maybe running around in public with hair on fire is premature. Like someone or other keeps saying, partisan preference is hard to change.
@Steven L. Taylor: My prediction is that the first woman president we have will be Republican, and she *will* have slept her way to the top. Good lord, you could probably argue that Gavin Newsom slept his way to the top. It isn’t universal, of course, but sleeping around is common behavior for politicians.
But they won’t care, because she sounds and looks good on camera. Which, I must admit, is a big, big part of being President.
Wapo’s headline story at the moment:
Obama tells allies Biden’s path to winning reelection has greatly diminished
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/18/obama-says-biden-must-consider-viability/
All these “people with knowledge of the calls” are really hurting Democrat’s chances by airing all of this. Has there ever been a time in history when a political party was so intent on self-destruction? It’s kind of amazing.
Is this how Britain got Liz Truss and then the Lettuce?
ETA: Note that we don’t have Obama on record on any of this just “people with knowledge of these calls” who may be misrepresenting or overstating, and are trying to force Obama to weigh in.
@steve:
The swing voters won’t see actual dementia but they sure are seeing a lot of democratic party members who are advocating against their own nominee. “gee golly if the democratic party doesn’t even like Biden then he must be really bad”. Then all Biden has to do is stutter like he always has or something minor and boom the billionaire owned media will amplify it.
Lets be real if the swing voters actually cared about dementia or delusions Trump wouldn’t be where he is.
This is the problem I had with Biden when y’all were rooting for him. Biden needed to set up a replacement and he never bothered. So now we’re fcked because the democratic party can’t unite for shit when it really needs to..
At this point Trump could be a cold corpse and he’d still poll about where he is right now. Because Republicans are disciplined in ways the Democratic party is incapable of being.
@Jay L Gischer:
That’s one of several standard talking points that have been circulating for years now. She’s also a DEI hire, a puppet master, and an evil unstable woman who hates white people.
The slept her way to the top is a standard refrain used against any successful woman at some point.
—
This election isn’t going to be decided by “swing voters”. Lets be real swing voters at this point are a joke. Both candidates are known values that have spent time in office. If you’re a swing voter at this point you’re a moron. This election is going to be decided by getting the base to turn out and vote in droves. It’s going to be won by 10k votes in a few key districts in key swing states. You know what demotivates the base? Having party members fighting each other 3 months before teh fucking election…
@Jay L Gischer: My apologies. I had no intention of suggesting that it was exclusively a boomer trait, simply that it’s the way the roll.
ETA: My inner Manichean admires your insight on this question.
@Jim Brown 32:
Do you believe we’ll have a real choice in 2028 if Trump wins this year?
@Jim Brown 32: Yeah this. I’ve not seen anyone explain how jettisoning Biden at this point get anything other than MAGA 2.0.
@just nutha: Biden is doing terrible*, something must be done! This is something, so it must be done!
*: no significant data in polls, just vibes. Sometimes you have to go by vibes though.
@Jay L Gischer: I remember that train of thought pretty well. It was part of the argument against electing her to the Senate, so it goes back some distance.
From what I have been reading all morning, the pressure on Biden to quit keeps building and doesn’t look like that will ameliorate. I am at the point now I expect Biden will have to come around and give in.
At least a Harris candidacy will end this Biden is so old meme, maybe then the focus could be shifted to Trump’s obvious cognitive issues.
Fresh off the press.
“Our campaign is not working through any scenarios where President Biden is not at the top of the ticket. He is and will be the Democratic nominee,” Biden principal deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told reporters at a news conference Thursday morning near the site of the Republican National Convention.
“Our campaign is not working through any scenarios where President Biden is not at the top of the ticket. He is and will be the Democratic nominee,” Biden principal deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told reporters at a news conference Thursday morning near the site of the Republican National Convention.
OK
Now, that may be what he has to say, right now. But let’s stipulate that Team Biden has gone into the bunker. Despite Obama….Pelosi…..Schumer……..and those who don’t count. (Or maybe the Black Caucus has won??)
But it gives James and Steven quite the fodder for the next week.
I’d query one thing: the speculation was Biden out by weekend. If he doesn’t, when does the clock run out and its Biden or bust?
And more interesting: what can O, Nance and Chuck do about it. And I mean legally, because that’s where we are.
BTW – my understanding is that Kamala was seen at Fing Chi’s rare and potent ancient “miracle” potions. Something about it puts a zing in your coffee. I saw it on the internet, so….
Sorry, couldn’t resist……
@Mikey: Dem rhetoric can not be taken seriously about Trump/MAGA in light of actions of their leadership/power players.
If they actually felt at risk, we would not be having this same discussion over and over and over. That, frankly, is opinion shaping 101–say it again and again and again–then repeat.
If there was an actual risk, they would be rallying and attacking the threat. Therefore, there must not be a threat–merely the inconvenience of being out of power.
So yes, I believe the next 4-years will suck balls, MAGA will overplay their hand, Americans will be sick of the disfunction, and perhaps, if they can find competent leadership, Democrats can build a party that makes sense in the 21st Century.
I think this is a gift linky:
(to Atlantic)
“Gift”
(Someone please tell me if this is working as a gift link – I can’t tell for obvious reasons.)
Etc., etc.
@charontwo: They can focus on that now–but don’t. Harris will spend too much time bumbling through her own defense to mount any attack…and any other candidate will have to spend all their time getting their name out.
No one not a regular cable news consumer knows Whitmer, Newsome, or Brashear. But those Zingers they’ll unleash at the debate (which Trump wont agree to)–they’ll win in a landslide after everyone gets a load of those doozies.
@gVOR10:
Of course, “Biden can’t win” is premature poppycock. It is unheard of for a party’s elites to middle-finger their base because their democratically-chosen incumbent — a successful one, btw — is polling slightly behind in July. Biden is within the margin-of-error in state and national polling that also shows ~10% of the electorate undecided. What’s to say undecideds won’t break for Biden and Democrats, as they have consistently done since 2022?
Only a party with leaders as weak and stupid as the Democratic Party’s leaders would look at this known risk and decide to help a bunch of elitist know-nothings and media jerks destroy their own incumbent weeks before early voting, rolling the dice on a bunch of unknown risks and potential intra-party civil war.
I’m beginning to see why Biden’s people were better at presidenting than Obama’s self-satisfied Ivy league crowd. The Biden camp is smarter.
@charontwo: The link works.
TLDR:
Senator Fool: We are the party of Democracy.
[Biden gets 90+% of the Delagates and 14 million votes]
Also Senator Fool: Get rid him!
@Jim Brown 32:
Bingo. We can’t take seriously the anti-Trumpism of liberal and media elites: they’re currently treating Biden and the Democratic base worse than they’ve ever treated Trump and MAGA.
Recently polling showed ~60% of the public thinks Trump should drop out. Is Mitch McConnell or Mike Johnson going to have a conversation with Trump about that? Lol no. Fortunately for Republicans, their leaders understand that 1) American voters value strength above all else, even when in disagreement and 2) while, yes, it may cost you short-term, you’re better off long-term by listening to your party’s most loyal voters — not to George Clooney. Or to loaded push polls.
Unfortunately for Democrats, our panicky and wobbly “leaders” (pfft) lack street smarts and toughness. The jokes about effete liberals write themselves.
@Jim Brown 32:
It’s just standard “I know better than you what’s best for you” condescension, that black folk have always gotten from some erstwhile allies, per the stereotype.
Some will do everything to help advance the historically-disadvantaged — except, you know, actually listen to digest what those groups are saying and why.
@Jim Brown 32:
Harris may ultimately fail, but she has a lot bigger upside than Biden and she is a stronger candidate than Biden in many important respects.
Biden’s political problems aren’t fixable, and they are actually getting worse as evidenced by his continued bleeding of support, his inability to communicate effectively, his unpopularity, and the fact that pretty much everyone with a brain knows in their heart-of-hearts that he wouldn’t last a full term even if he does manage to win.
Living in a bubble is believing that Biden, at this point, is the best option for Democrats. Clearly, he isn’t, and the defenses and arguments for not pressuring him to exit get weaker and more strained each day. Biden has Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, and many other senior Democrats questioning his ability to win. Donor money is drying up. And there are signs this is having an effect – there are already leaks from senior Democrats who suggest that Biden may, in fact, step down.
@DK:
Yeah, about that.
@Jim Brown 32: Are you really judging the seriousness of the threat by the actions of those least vulnerable to it?
This is an exceptionally optimistic view, to say the least. I find it more likely if Trump wins and is able to accomplish any significant part of his agenda, America will slide into authoritarianism just as Hungary did. We will become a republic in name only.
@Andy:
The level of emotion and rage over this is bizarre.
Anyone claiming that Biden is the only possible winner is not dealing with facts. Anyone claiming Harris will win in a romp is not dealing with facts. People pushing the notion that this is some kind of ‘white guy’ conspiracy needs to talk to the two most prominent Black pols in the country, Obama and Jeffries.
No one knows. This cannot be predicted with a level of certainty that justifies this absurd level of anger. We’re all just guessing.
And the drips are getting bigger.
Oh, my. More arrogant than I thought. I like my Orville Reddebacker with movie theatre butter….
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/07/18/team-biden-roars-obama-schumer-pelosi-gave-us-trump-in-2016-n3791985
@Andy:
Bless your heart
Pray tell what problems Harris will have within the Black coalition that Biden doesn’t have?
If it were that easy she would’ve simply won the Primary race she quickly dropped out of.
@Michael Reynolds:
Or we could just talk to regular ole rank-and-file black Democrats instead of running for cover behind whomever white people have unilaterally decided is the unelected King of the Blacks this week.
At least we’re now it in agreement that angrily screaming “Fuck Joe Biden” was absurd, since we lack certainy. Would’ve been nice to hear such hedging and humility earlier, from the “Biden can’t win” crowd who’ve spent three weeks in a bizarre, absurd, orgastic fury of unhinged Biden hatred.
@Mikey: We’ll have lots of bread and circuses to pacify us at our level. Authoritarians target people with the power to stop them i.e not you or me.
They are squarely in the crosshairs if there is a real threat—and they are smart enough to understand that.
They are the MOST vulnerable in Trump 2.0
@Michael Reynolds:
Yeah, I’ve been pretty clear from the beginning of this that it’s about risks and probabilities and reasonable people can disagree. I’ll say upfront that if Biden stays in the race, he might win! There is a lot of uncertainty, but I personally don’t see how Biden can run a successful campaign given the realities of his ability and unpopularity. I keep asking what the theory/strategy for a Biden victory is and no one answers, suggesting to me they don’t have an answer.
The simple facts are that Democrats are not in a good position because any choice—even the choice to do nothing and stick with Biden—doesn’t guarantee victory.
My view is simply that the risks and probabilities strongly show that Biden stepping aside is very likely to be the best move, and more and more people are coming around to that view. But something that might be or is likely to be the best move doesn’t mean it’s an automatic winning move. It’s entirely possible that Democrats are just fucked no matter who is on the ballot. But that doesn’t mean you should play a weak hand to avoid the difficulty of potentially getting a better hand that has a better chance of winning – that is if one is primarily interested in actually winning.
@Andy:
Yeah, about that:
But condescending men of a certain persuasion who think they know everything will continue to double down on lecturing black Democrats about black Democrats. Listening without jumping into assert their superior knowledge is the one thing they are incapable of doing.
Like I said, the Democrats’ most loyal voters are still with Joe Biden. The Democratic Party had better handle that very carefully — since it is not at all clear they have a better option.
@DK:
You missed this part and the rest of the context of that poll:
Contrary to what you suggest, replacing Biden with Harris would likely solidify support among Black Democrats and Black voters generally, not hemorrhage it.
@Jim Brown 32: I don’t think those at the top are at risk of defenestration. They will have the means to avoid the worst excesses of Trump 2.0 and they know it.
Those at the bottom have no options. They will suffer and have no recourse.
I’m not willing to let the nation I’ve defended for 39 years go under. And I especially hate it going under to a felonious, carnival-barking fraud. And I especially especially hate that happening because the most effective President in my lifetime got a shitty cold on the wrong night, and too many Democrats bought into the Republican framing and panicked.
@Andy: Yeah, if you and one poll question about a future that doesn’t exist yet say so, it must be true.
I’m old enough to remember polling on the states whose Republican primary electorates supposedly preferred DeSantis to Trump. Then the actual campaign started. Yet some apparently think that if a poll says it today, that’s how it’s always going to be — as if the future is set in stone by polling. Biden is losing by a few points today, so he can’t win in November; these people are okay with Kamala now, thus it will forever be so.
Any polling done on Harris before the slings and arrows of a presidential candidacy is about as useful as used toilet paper.
We don’t have to future-cast or try to play clairvoyant on what we know right now: right now, black Democrats do not want Joe Biden to drop out, just like I said. Democratic leaders should handle that thoughtfully, with much less dismissive carelessness than is being shown atm.
I’ve got no problem with forcing Biden out right now. Polling is trending negatively in key states, downstream candidates in the House and Senate are seeing problems, and big donors are sitting on their hands now. It’s clearly time for Joe to step aside.
The Democratic Convention would become the kind of reality show that Republicans are so fond of. I do not fear it at all. In fact, it might save the Democratic Party.
I look forward to a Harris-Whitmer (or Shapiro, or _____, ticket.
@Michael Reynolds:
It is a combo of team politics and (especially) anxiety over Trump.
@al Ameda:
My personal dream (aside from Democrats backing their flawed nominee with one tenth of the passion Republicans back their total disaster) is for Biden to announce he’s releasing his delegates and putting himself forward as candidate in an open competition.
Let the mystical Another C. Andidate poll respondents think they prefer come forward and wrest the nomination from him. Let Clooney, Pelosi, Schiff, Raskin, and podbros endorse an actual person with actual human imperfections.
Let’s see what happens when the rubber meets the road with actual names and campaigns attempting to unite coalitions behind them, not just vague wishcasting. I’m guessing Democrats would end up realizing grass is not greener and renominate Joe Biden. People always prefer something different when it’s just “something different” sans fully vetted details.
If we’re gonna give up our incumbency advantage and/or blow up the party, why not make it entertaining?
Thank goodness the current crop of fragile, limp Democrats weren’t around for those polls that had Bill Clinton behind Perot and Bush in the summer of 92. Good grief.
@DK:
So you make a comment lecturing about how one poll is useless, right after citing a cherry picked stat from that same poll as evidence for your view while ignoring everything else in the poll.
Combined with your attempts at moral bullyingx it just shows to me what a weak argument you have for Biden staying in the race.
@Andy: Hehe. And how can we ever go on, without your approval of our arguments?
Actually, what I did was draw a distinction between future-casting and known knowns that exist in the here and now. I didn’t need a link from you to know what black folk are feeling on this right now: I cited those feelings before you sent your link. The quote from your link was for the benefit of y’all who obviously don’t spend a whole lot of time in intimate conversation with members of the Democratic Party’s base.
A smart party may not necessarily hew to his base, but it should act sensitively and thoughtfully.
Frankly, Schumer and Pelosi should sit down and shut up because if they’d filed articles
of impeachment on January 7, 2021 instead of dithering long enough for the Trump spin machine to get to work to minimize Jan 6 we wouldn’t be in this mess.
Biden actually gets shit done. I think that’s why they don’t like him. (But also why Bernie, AOC, Clyburn et al are standing by him.)
@DK:
I’m not asking for anyone’s approval DK. As noted several times now, I think reasonable people can disagree about what to do. Still waiting, though, for the theory of victory for Biden – a question no one seems to want to answer.
Yes, you’ve made it quite clear you’re the self-appointed avatar of what “black folk” are feeling.
When it comes to the opinions of millions of Americans, however, I prefer to rely on polling, even if imperfect.
@Andy:
I don’t have time for much, but I think that there is a reasonable pathway wherein Biden loses GA, and maybe AZ and NV and squeaks out WI, MI, and PA.
He is within the margin of error in all of those states and I think there is no way the RFK Jr./other number stays as high as it is. I think Trump has a demonstrated ceiling that he will struggle to overcome.
I am not going to bet my house on this, but there is a pathway. Most voters are locked in and while Trump’s base loves him, there is substantial fear of Trump’s reelection motivating the opposition.
I also think that if there is a switch, which seems like it is coming, the overall contour of the race will not change that much.
@Steven L. Taylor: I will note that PA is the one that gives me the most pause after what happened in 2016.
He could lose PA and would still win the EC with NV and AZ.
Again: not betting the house, but there is a plausible pathway to victory.
@Steven L. Taylor: Crap, I just realized that I am not accounting for reapportionment.
Rather than delete the error, I will note that he cannot lose PA even if he wins NV and AZ.