Assad Regime Toppled
A fifty-year dictatorship has been ousted. What now?
AP (“Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad family“):
The Syrian government fell early Sunday in a stunning end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family after a sudden rebel offensive sprinted across government-held territory and entered the capital in 10 days.
Syrian state television aired a video statement by a group of men saying that President Bashar Assad has been overthrown and all detainees in jails have been set free.
The man who read the statement said the Operations Room to Conquer Damascus, an opposition group, called on all opposition fighters and citizens to preserve state institutions of “the free Syrian state.”
The statement emerged hours after the head of a Syrian opposition war monitor said Assad had left the country for an undisclosed location, fleeing ahead of insurgents who said they had entered Damascus following the remarkably swift advance across the country.
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said the government was ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and turn its functions over to a transitional government.
[…]
As daylight broke over Damascus, crowds gathered to pray in the city’s mosques and to celebrate in the squares, chanting “God is great.” People also chanted anti-Assad slogans and honked car horns. In some areas, celebratory gunshots rang out.
Soldiers and police officers left their posts and fled, and looters broke into the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense.
Reuters (“Syrian rebels topple President Assad, Russia says he left the country“) adds:
Syrian rebels declared President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster after seizing control of Damascus on Sunday, forcing him to flee and ending his family’s decades of rule after more than 13 years of civil war in a seismic moment for the Middle East.
The Islamist rebels also dealt a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in Syria in the heart of the region, allies who propped up Assad during critical periods in the conflict.
The rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments. Thousands of people in cars and on foot congregated at a main square waving and chanting “Freedom” from a half century of Assad family rule, witnesses said.
People were seen walking inside the Al-Rawda Presidential Palace, with some leaving carrying furniture from inside. The rebels said prisoners had been freed from a large jail on the outskirts of Damascus where the Syrian government detained thousands.
“We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains,” the rebels said.
Iran’s embassy was also stormed by Syrian rebels, Iran’s English-language Press TV reported.
Hezbollah, which provided crucial support to Assad for years, withdrew all of its forces from Syria on Saturday as rebel factions approached the capital Damascus, two Lebanese security sources told Reuters on Sunday.
BBC (“Where is Bashar al-Assad?“):
Bashar al-Assad has “stepped down” as president and “left Syria”, his ally Russia says, hours after rebel forces took control of the capital Damascus.
The Russian foreign ministry gave no further details about Assad’s whereabouts, but it was the first official statement saying he had fled the country.
Assad has not been pictured since he met Iranian foreign minister in Damascus a week ago. That day, he vowed to “crush” the rebels seizing territory with dizzying speed.
Early on Sunday morning, after their fighters entered the city without resistance, the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies declared that “the tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled”.
The head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a UK-based monitoring group, also reported that a plane believed to be carrying Assad “left Syria via Damascus international airport before the army security forces left” the facility. Rami Abdul Rahman said he had information that the plane was meant to take off at 22:00 (20:00 GMT) on Saturday.
The Flightradar24 website did not record a departure around that time, although a Cham Wings Airlines Airbus A320 passenger plane did leave at around 00:56 on Sunday bound for Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The plane landed in Sharjah on time. But a diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates told reporters in Bahrain that he did not know if Assad was in the UAE.
Telegraph (“How the Assad regime fell – and who rules Syria now“) provides some sobering context:
Syria’s north west and Damascus itself now held by a coalition of factions led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
HTS is the single most powerful rebel faction in Syria, with an estimated troop strength of 30,000, and it leads a coalition of Islamist and national groups.
The head of the group is Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a former Al-Qaeda and Isis member who once fought US troops in Iraq.
HTS is proscribed as a terror organisation by the US and Turkey, with Jolani having a $10 million US bounty on his head.
Human rights groups have documented torture of political opponents in the region of Idlib, which HTS has controlled since the battle lines against the Assad regime froze during the Covid pandemic in 2020.
The group’s prior aims were explicitly jihadist, with it wanting to create some form of hard-line Islamic governance after toppling Assad.
So, the good news is that a brutal dictator has been ousted after a 13-year civil war that has killed some 600,000. He has fled the country, along with his family. There have been reports that the plane crashed but it appears that it was just some sort of transponder malfunction.
From a U.S. foreign policy perspective, Russia, identified as an “acute threat” under the Biden National Security Strategy, and Iran, identified as a “persistent threat” under the same document, are big losers. Ostensible NATO ally Turkey is strengthened. So is American ally Israel, both by virtue of Iran’s weakened role but by the further degradation of Hezbollah. IDF forces have moved into the Golan Heights as a “buffer” against the unrest.
Beyond that, it’s not at all obvious whether this marks the end of the civil war or just a new phase. From the beginning, the various “rebel” factions have had wildly divergent goals. Will they now somehow cooperate? And, if so, for how long?
Throngs of Syrian people have taken to the streets in joyous celebration. They are certainly in a better position than I am to assess the situation. But it’s not at all obvious to me that the follow-on government will be less brutal or more competent.
In the North, clashes between Turkish backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are underway. Clashes inside Manbij city between SDF and SNA, with SDF Counteroffensive underway, amid Turkish Airstrikes
One of those times when you wish both sides could lose.
Steve
Neocon celebration and Biden sends in a occupation force.
@Paul L.:
Whatever that means. You know, this habit of yours of writing something and assuming that it makes sense to everyone is really annoying. Try explaining things in more detail and dropping your obsession with sticking it to Democrats and other left-wing/progressive politicians.
@Scott:
The Turks fear that the Kurds will seize the opportunity to form a Kurdish state, not a surprise that a Turkish allied militia would do Ankara’s bidding.
The rebel group that took Damascus is saying all the right things about the future of the country, but…
Journalist within Syria:
https://bsky.app/profile/qusaynoor.bsky.social
I’m getting very curious about what actually happened. “The rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.”
So did Assad have no army left, or did they just decide they weren’t going to fight? What prompted that decision?
Very curious.
https://x.com/VivaRevolt/status/1865782464687313297
Like I wrote yesterday, I’m finding https://syria.liveuamap.com/ useful. Of course, like everything in the Middle East, take it with a grain of salt.
https://x.com/margbrennan/status/1865780808683864424
Hopefully, we’ll be somewhat passive here.
@Rob1:
Sometimes the edit feature on OTB glitches out. That last paragraph in my post with the unnecessary repeated link was inexplicably inserted as shown, and then resisted 2 edits plus a delete.
The paragraph correctly inserted as 3rd from bottom should read:
He drew heavy support from Turkey. They throttled back that support when becoming concerned over his growing influence.
Great, now I’ve got an earworm playing “We won’t get fooled again”. But at least it’s music from The Who and not Rick Astley.
@Jay L Gischer:
There are reports that Assad left instructions for a peaceful transfer of power. I suspect, the reality is that large parts of the Syrian army refused to fight of him, there has been little resistance by government troops since the first days of the rebel offensive.
okay, 2nd attempt to post this:
Reminiscent of the scene In The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly where Eastwood, Wallach, and Van Cleef have a three-way showdown in the desert.
Al Julani in 2015 —
At various times al Julani (Jolani) has been allied with/fighting against al Qaeda, ISIL, and other rebel groups.
He drew heavy support from Turkey. They throttled back that support when becoming concerned over his growing influence.
It’s nearly impossible for democracy to find fertile ground in this hard scrabble region. Even Israel has had to concede to the expediency of power.
What’s our excuse? (In the U.S.)
@Not the IT Dept.: Why do you assume that Paul L is intending to say anything people will understand? Have you ever linked to his blog?
@just nutha:
I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt, and no, I never have.
Remember Kamala declared no US military members were in war zones.
In funny coincidences, Facebook memories reminded me that I posted this on 7 December 2012: “All I want for Christmas is Bashar Assad’s head on a pike…”
Wasn’t quite what I hoped for back then, but better twelve years late than never. Thoughts and prayers to Trump’s Russian asset DNI pick Tulsi Gabbard.
@Sleeping Dog: Hmm, that concords with what little I have read about it. But it immediately brings up another question: They have been fighting for him for years. What changed? Some ideological/political change of heart seems, er, unlikely.
I mean, if he had to stop paying them, that might explain it. But is that even plausible?
@JKB:
Never forget that Trump and his MAGA trolls are boring.
@JKB: @DK: Y’alls exchange here reminds me of a conversation I had here with @JKB a week or so ago about Kamala’s communication style.
The “carefully chosen words” distinguish between “war zone” and “combat zone”. The US is not at war with any nation, nor are our troops in any zone associated with a war between two other sovereign nations.
This of course, hit’s JKB’s dislike of how Kamala talks – she talks like a lawyer, because she is a lawyer and a politician. Yes, US troops are in places where it is plausible – not likely, but plausible – that they will be attacked in some way, whether serious or not. That’s why they are there. That’s the purpose of having troops, right? But they aren’t in any “war” zone. We have no expectation that they will be attacked. And “expectation” is not the same as “preparation”, either.
The thing that gets me, @JKB, is that you seem to prefer hyperbolic bald-faced lies. You know, like “You send you boy to school and he comes back a girl”. That’s not just a lie, it’s a slander/libel. Or perhaps, “they’re eating cats and dogs!”. Again, just flatly counterfactual, with character assassination rolled in. Somehow this is “more trustworthy”? Lots of people seem to think so, but man, I don’t get it.
As I’ve said before, I understand what Harris is saying. I teased it apart above. That puts me in the camp of “elites” that don’t give a damn about people like, oh, Rick T, or Dave S, or Pat D, or Keith F, or all the other working class guys I grew up with, I guess?
Not getting it.
@DK: @Jay L Gischer: Since North and South Korea are still officially at war, are our 24,000 troops in US Forces Korea in a combat zone? No. Although they do get Hardship Duty Pay. People like JKB don’t care about facts.
“Post”
Trump, on Truth Social, has expressed some thoughts about Syria and Russia.
Here is Yastreblyansky’s hot take:
“Yastreblyansky”
@Jay L Gischer:
A couple of things that I’d venture is that the Iranians, pulled out rather than bucking them up and Hezbollah wasn’t coming to the rescue, nor were the Russians committing air power.
In many ways, this is similar to the collapse of the US backed government in Afghanistan, Assad had support till he no longer did. Assad’s support slowly eroded, while the country lived in abject poverty, Assad and his cronies continued to live the high life. That gets noticed and the military was happy to collect their pay and enforce the regime, when push came to shove, they weren’t willing to fight for it.
@Paul L.:
Probability: zero.
And I doubt the “neocons” ever gamed for a Turkish/Islamist dominance in Syria.
@JKB:
Well, heaven forfend that US forces might be in position to support US interests.
(Which it seems they have: Iranian proxy Iraqi forces trying to move into Syria, and ISIS trying to get in the game, seems to have met a blunt “fuck off” from US response.)
@Rob1:
The Middle East continues to be, like it or not, an area of vital importance to the US, due to key allies exposure to effects thereof.
And to the not too far away Gulf: whose hydrocarbons flows will continue to be a critical economic and financial concern for at least another decade.
Probably more.
Israel has not allowed the crisis to go to waste. I suspect the deployment will be as “temporary” as the occupation of the West Bank.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77jrrxxn07o
@Ken_L:
It may well be temporary: Israel occupied roughly the same area from 1973 to 1974.
What is now called the “Area of Separation”.
I suspect part of the Israeli motivation is as a gesture of contempt to the UN, which is supposed to police the AOS.