Rather than burying it at the bottom of the previous post, I want to highlight two questions from the ABC/WaPo poll not covered in the two news reports:
Nader is polling 6%. Granted, in a +/-3% poll, it’s hard to know how to read that. It’s both good news for Bush–a lot of Kerry’s base is less than thrilled–but also bad–some of these people would certainly vote for Kerry if the race tightens.
That’s important because of these numbers:
Is your vote more for George W. Bush or more against John Kerry? (asked of Bush supporters)
For Bush 83%
Against Kerry 16%
DK/No opinion 1%
versus
Is your vote more for John Kerry or more against George W. Bush? (asked of Kerry supporters)
For Kerry 44%
Against Bush 55%
DK/No opinion 1%
I knew such a gap existed. I didn’t realize it was anywhere near that high.
Clearly, this election is going to be a referendum on George W. Bush. That’s almost always the case when an incumbent president is running for re-election. Sometimes, though–1980 being a classic case, and 1992 at least a partial one–the challenger has enough charisma or ideological appeal to attract a substantial number of people to vote for him. So far, John Kerry seems not even to have energized his base constituency.
Certainly, part of that has to do with Kerry’s personality. My guess, though, is that much of this is a function of much of the Democratic base being against the Iraq War, of which Kerry has been a weak supporter.
