CNN Poll on Replacing Biden
Sounds dramatic, but not very convincing.
Three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. His approval rating also has hit a new low following a shaky performance in the first debate of this year’s presidential campaign.
Two immediate reactions. First, “someone else” isn’t a real option, it is a Rorschach test. I never see much analytical usage for any question that is “Do you want specific thing or theoretically any other thing in this category that you can think of?” This is not helpful. A second thought is that this is a registered voter poll, which is not helpful for this decision. If Biden is going to be persuaded his exit will lead to victory, it would need to be based on solid likely voter numbers.
Here are the exact parameters of the poll.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 among a random national sample of 1,274 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,045 registered voters. Surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For results among registered voters, it is plus or minus 3.7 points.
More important than the drama is this:
In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall.
Ok, so this bit of data suggests that despite all of the panic, and the reason the question about “someone else” was asked, the debate, did not have an effect on the race. If that is true, it is going to be hard to convince Biden he needs to leave, even if the polling remains favorable to Trump.
Don’t get me wrong; there are reasons for Democrats to fear a Trump victory. But that was true before the debate and thus far I have not seen actual data that shows that the debate performance has affected the overall contours of the race that way it has the minds of the pundit class.
Also from the poll is a presentation of data that I find annoying because it omits “I don’t know” as one of the options (and because it is of registered, not likely, voters).
These voters are also more likely to support an alternative Democrat against Trump than they are to choose Biden. In hypothetical matchups, they break 47% for Harris to 34% for Trump, 42% for Newsom to 36% for Trump, and 42% for Buttigieg to 35% for Trump.
I would be more impressed if any of the Biden replacements were scoring substantially higher than he is. Here I think we are seeing as many people who may not even know for sure who these people are and are responding “I don’t know.” Yes, it is heartening for Democrats to see Trump in the 30s but we all know that isn’t the number he will get in the general (not to mention the real question will be the swing states).
Worth noting:
Among the full US public, Biden’s favorability rating stands at just 34%, with 58% viewing him unfavorably. And while many of the Democratic names bandied about as possible replacements for Biden are less widely disliked, none would start with more public goodwill – instead, they are less well known. Harris has the widest recognition – and is also deeply underwater, with a 29% favorability rating, 49% rating her unfavorably, and 22% saying they have no opinion or haven’t heard of her. Roughly half of the public has no opinion on Buttigieg (50%) and Newsom (48%), with about two-thirds (69%) offering no opinion of Whitmer.
So, Harris is about as unpopular as Biden and the others are largely unknown. These are not solid data upon which to build an argument to oust Biden.
When I heard this morning on NPR that a new CNN poll had bad news for Biden, I thought his head-to-head numbers had plunged, not that he had lost a hypothetical question about a fantasy candidate. Again, the headline should be that his overall numbers appear unaffected by the debate (but, of course, that spoils the narrative).
I understand the concern about Biden and there is a part of my brain that thinks rolling the dice for Harris might be worth the gamble, but I think people need to understand it’s a gamble (and is the only viable play other than standing pat). However, I will continue to underscore that getting Biden to step down is a tall order, and it will take more than being within the margin of error in the head-to-head matchup to get him to so.
I assume now that Trump has appeared on Epstein’s massage appointment list, that CNN will do a poll to see if voters want him to drop out as well?
Oh….
CNN has a story that a close associate is leaking that Biden is considering whether he will leave the race.
If the Democratic party can replace Biden, it needs to happen soon. Before the 15th, certainly before the end of the month. Afterwards it would be too late.
If they don’t replace him, or can’t, then they need to lay off commenting on whether he’s qualified or not. Keeping that debate on in the news will only hurt the Democratic cause.
What I find infuriating is that all these people running around in a panic like headless chickens, made little or no effort to persuade Biden not to seek a second term to begin with. While I think he’s still qualified, age takes a hard toll. The odds he will be incapacitated in some way, decline in cognitive abilities, or even die, get higher every year.
So the time to have him replaced was between 2022 and 2024, not in the second half of 2024.
I suppose headless chickens don’t contemplate the future.
A leaked document from a progressive polling nonprofit associated with Biden’s super PAC is pretty eye-opening and not good for Biden:
Article Link
Document link
@Michael Reynolds:
The NYT reports that Biden is having some sort of emergency meeting with Democratic governors this evening. Newsom will be there.
@Kathy:
The Chicken Little crowd did make such an effort tho, no? It was just futile, because it was not and is not up to them, or to anyone but Joe Biden.
He said, “No, I’m running.” And barring a total polling collapse, will likely continue to say, “No.”
Then what? Can Kamala sic Seal Team 6 on him, or does John Roberts’s unilateral rewrite of the Constitution to invent absolute executive immunity not apply to her?
@Andy: Thanks for the links. Since I think that the choice is Biden or Harris, I am not sure that those data paint much of a different picture (save that Harris’ net negatives are closer to Trump and better than Biden’s).
I am persuadable that replacing Biden is the right move, although at the moment I still think the the risk is pretty great. What I remain unconvinced of is that he will step down based on the available data.
So my takeaway from Michael’s comments, Steven’s being willing to admit that maybe the Democratic Party should roll the dice with changing things up big time, Kevin Drum’s post at his blog, and a quick look at the links Andy provided, and it looks like a Newsom / Harris ticket might be in the cards. Newsom is not afraid to go on the attack mode, and he is getting as good as Trump at letting criticism of him roll right off his back.
Put if this way, Newsom is the guy that tells Californians to buckle their belts and be prepared for a rainy day, and oh yeah, you need wear a mask, stay indoors and not go to restaurants with large crowds, all said from his table at The French Laundry restaurant with a large crowd of his friends who are probably ordering some of the most expensive items on the menu, lol!!!
He just lets the critics yap, and then the firestorm of criticism against him seems to fade away almost overnight. Trump’s IDNGAF attitude towards anything folks say about him (well, other than to declare that those folks will get theirs when he is in the White House) just lets him bulldoze/beast mode his way to grabbing that brass ring (again).
I suspect Newsom’s inner beast mode is ready to come out to play if he is named as the replacement on the Democratic ticket.
@inhumans99: Maybe Harris/Newsom.
I am utterly convinced that they cannot leapfrog Harris.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I agree. It’s Harris unless she decides freely, for reasons of her own, to step aside.
And she can’t have Newsom as her Veep since they’re both Californians. I’m drawn – probably suicidally – to an all-female ticket. Kamala and Whitmer.
ETA: But Kamala/Beshear is probably smarter.
@Steven L. Taylor:
More than fair enough, but I think you will also agree with me that if this still very hypothetical Democratic ticket change up actually occurs it may be one of the few times in history when the candidate for President of the United States lets, heck, maybe encourages her VP pick to spend nearly as much time as she would to make a push for why folks should vote for Democrats this November. Newsom as VP is no Dan Quayle, he can give as good as he gets.
This would be a neat ticket, as both folks on the ticket represent CA (or did in the case of VP Kamala Harris), and I do sincerely think feel that Harris would help with the minority vote, and Newsom looks pretty white to this gringo’s eyes, so there you have it. He attracts the white male vote (and I bet quite a few white female votes as well), and Harris would not be a liability in getting minority voters who are still on the fence, to climb down of the fence and punch the ticket for a Democratic win this November.
ETA: I just noticed Michael’s post that Newsom is out as he also represents CA, but I am not so sure that turns a massive amount of people off from voting for a Harris/Newsom ticket.
However, we have a deeper bench than we might realize when it comes to folks who would not be a liability if they joined Harris on the ticket. Just imagine if she picked a competent and well respected Republican as her running mate, as long as I am throwing out hypotheticals, I figure I might as well go all in and imagine a Democratic/Republican ticket.
@Michael Reynolds: Changing residency is super easy.
The idea that the replacement will be anyone but Harris was always ridiculous.
Who the vp will be is the interesting question.
Getting Biden to step down may be a tall order, but in my judgment it’s the right call despite the gamble of changing candidates this late in the game. I believe that the undecided voter (particularly young voters) or the double haters or whatever they are being called these days, will be more easily swayed to vote against Trump with Harris at the top of the ticket. Now, that’s based on my non-scientific, data-anemic analysis, but there it is. We’ll see how the coming days and weeks play out, but Biden hasn’t done much of anything to allay our fears since debate night, and I’m not sure that he’ll be able to. I predict the upcoming interview with Stephanopoulos will just as cringe inducing.
@Steven L. Taylor: Based on the small degree to which I’ve been following this microdrama, only Harris/Newsom can spend the existing campaign war chest. Newsom/Harris has to raise its own funding. Doesn’t sound like a workable proposition.
@just nutha: This is my understanding, but I have not seen it confirmed. If it is the case, any talk of not-Harris is foolishness.
I did not think that through when I said we could see a Newsom / Harris ticket, when of course Harris would be at the top of the ticket and Newsom would be the VP pick.
What is becoming more interesting by the moment, something to make you go hmmm, is that it feels like there is much more than just a non-zero chance of this happening. That we could see this all going down as soon as this week is kind-of fascinating. It would certainly be a distraction from the heat domes both coasts are dealing with this week.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Where could Gavin go to find the equivalent of The French Laundry?
Sure, Manhattan, but give up mild Marin for steaming in the summer and freezing in the winter? Chicago, same issue, though Alinea would be fair trade for the Laundry. Michelin starred restaurants and fine weather are not be found everywhere. Vegas might work, yes it’s hot but also very well air-conditioned, and very sunny, but while Vegas has a lot of B+/A- minus restaurants, the customer base lacks the sophistication to demand A+.
@just nutha: @Steven L. Taylor:
The big plus for Newsom is that he’s a formidable money-raiser. Beshear can’t equal the Hollywood and Silicon Valley money. Neither can Whitmer. Ari Emmanuel says the Hollywood money is moving away from Biden into Senate and House races.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I am pretty solidly in the Biden can’t win camp, barring some kind of black swan event. To me, the campaign has reacted to his poor performance badly, which tends to confirm that his performance isn’t an aberration. The normal thing to do would be to get your candidate out in front of the cameras and do unscripted events to prove the debate performance was a one-off. The campaign hasn’t done that, they’ve been calling people bedwetters and using the teleprompter.
I don’t see how that charade can last another four months. That’s a long time to try to shield your candidate from unscripted events and try to schedule all his appearances between his supposedly better hours of 10 to 4.
In short, the campaign is not successfully combatting the terrible imagery from the debate, and they are not really trying in ways that would actually be effective.
At this point, I think Biden’s days are numbered. If he doesn’t see the light (and having quite a lot of experience dealing with cognitive impairment myself, Biden likely can’t perceive anything is wrong with himself), then I think, eventually, a couple of major players in the party will break the taboo of calling for Biden to step down from the campaign. Once that taboo is broken, it will become a flood, and he won’t have a choice.
I see Harris as the only real alternative, not because she’s the best, but because of the money and mechanics of the campaign and finance laws—she’s the only one who can access the campaign’s $240 million war chest as VP on the ticket. Transferring the money would likely require Harris to also drop out, and even then, given campaign finance laws, it’s an open question whether the money could be transferred to another candidate since her and Biden’s names are the only ones on the federal disclosures (IANAL – but that’s what some experts have been saying).
And then there is the very real internal political problem of trying to bypass Harris for a white guy in today’s Democratic coalition.
Is Harris ready for prime time? I think we’ll find out.
I don’t think the USA is ready to elect a female president. Kamala would be Hillaried before she even accepted the nomination.
@Michael Reynolds: Harris could change her residency.
Not that I think any of this is particularly realistic, even if Biden were to drop out (unlikely). People in most of the country don’t think California represents them, and a double-California ticket is basically asking people to vote for an alien takeover.
A Midwest Governor would be a likelier pick.
@Gustopher:
I’m in the camp that believes Veeps have very little impact on the race. But some can raise cash, and some can’t. That said, turning it into California vs. The Country, would be a problem.
@DK: “Can Kamala sic Seal Team 6 on him, or does John Roberts’s unilateral rewrite of the Constitution to invent absolute executive immunity not apply to her?”
She’s black and female. What do you think?
@inhumans99: “a competent and well respected Republican as her running mate”
Name one.
And please, no Liz Cheney. She’s been great in opposing Trump, but in every other way she is as big a horror show as her father.
Am I correct in thinking that the time has already passed for Biden to be replaced on some state ballots?
@Michael Reynolds:
I’m still advocating for Kamala/Hillary, if only because I enjoy watching GOP heads explode.
@Michael Reynolds: It would seem easy for Harris to claim residency in DC. I don’t know where she’s registered to vote, or if she and Emhoff maintain a residence in VA, but she has resided in DC for the last three years.
@Steven L. Taylor: Exactly. Back when Cheney decided to name himself as W’s veep, how long do you think it took him to come up with a solution to both being Texans? Five seconds, tops?
If Biden were to choose not to run it should happen before the R convention and let the Dems figure it out later. If he chooses to resign and Harris assumes the presidency, that should happen after the R convention.
Promise Harris a Supreme Court appointment if the Dems take the WH, that would be one possible way to leapfrog her.
I can’t see Beshear, he can’t carry his home state.
@Gustopher:
A double-California Democratic ticket you mean.
Those same “people” would claim a double-California Devin Nunes / Larry Elder ticket was the realest, most representative “real America” ticket to ever American.
@Kathy:
It cannot. Biden can *step down* and Kamala Harris can be the nominee. That’s it, those are the choices.
Harris is the only one who has any legal path to the funds that have been raised thus far, and it would be a disaster to replace a Black woman.
If Biden steps aside, Harris is the nominee, unless Newsom or anyone else can raise a quarter of a billion dollars in the next few weeks.
@wr: Harris-Manchin.
Jamelle Bouie was trolling people in TikTok with this idea, and it is so awful that it should be seriously considered, since we are in the bad timeline.
Imagine Manchin being that 51st vote in a split senate, disagreeing with and undermining the Administration, but now as VP.
Harris-Hanks. Who doesn’t love Tom Hanks?
@Gustopher: If we are doing the horrible pairings thing, I’d suggest Adam Kinzinger.
@Jen: Harris-Sinema, where in the end Sinema reveals that she’s voting for a third party.
@Michael Reynolds:
Are overpriced, keep the unwashed masses out, conspicuous consumption restaurants really that scarce? I don’t know; then again, I don’t travel in such circles. Either way, great actions sometimes require great sacrifices.
So sad. The elite are supposed to be able to have it all.
ETA: Either way, it looks like some of you may be getting your wish, if the rumors are true. May you live in interesting times.
@Just nutha ignint cracker:
I have a long, entangled relationship with restaurants. I worked in them as a waiter and headwaiter and manager. I stole from them. At our nadir a McDonald’s caramel sundae – we had to split one – was a big night out. And I was a restaurant reviewer, desperately poor yet weirdly powerful, loved and hated in equal measure. I’ve eaten at some of the greats with the twelve course tasting menus. I have a scars on my chest and hands from hitting a slick patch, dropping a tray of oysters and falling into the broken glass and shells. For years I was randomly crippled for days by spasms in my ‘waiter muscle,’ too many trays too quickly hefted. None of that in chronological sequence.
At some point – and it took years, maybe decades – I stopped feeling like maybe I should just bus that table over there. I transitioned from ex-waiter to waited-upon. I’ll always still be a big tipper, I owe that to ‘my people.’ But my waiter muscle no longer goes out, and my focus when I’m in a restaurant is no longer that of a headwaiter, noticing who’s weeded. I miss it and absolutely never want to go back. Do you watch The Bear? They have it so right it gives ex restaurant people PTSD.
@Michael Reynolds: “Harris-Hanks.”
You’re twenty years too late. Possibly ten years for Harris-Clooney.
Harris-Swift.
I have no opinion on whether Joe Biden is in a stage of dementia. I’m not a doctor.
I find the commentary here idiotic. By people who so falsely consider themselves sophisticated.
I do know what I saw. He is not capable of holding the office. I see the media rats scurrying for cover after lying through their teeth for years. As have those on this blog, including the proprieties. Liars. Slack jawed sycophants.
But here we are. Can the Dem party suck it up and admit the fraud perpetrated on the people? I’m not optimistic.
I have no opinion on whether Joe Biden is in a stage of dementia. I’m not a doctor.
I find the commentary here idiotic. By people who so falsely consider themselves sophisticated.
I do know what I saw. He is not capable of holding the office. I see the media rats scurrying for cover after lying through their teeth for years. As have those on this blog, including the proprietrts. Liars. Slack jawed sycophants.
But here we are. Can the Dem party suck it up and admit the fraud perpetrated on the people? I’m not optimistic.
@Michael Reynolds: Yeah, I watched The Bear two or three times. The main character reminded me of what kind of person I was when I worked in the wholesale produce business. A couple of years after my ex-wife and I moved to Longview, a guy from Hood River, OR, called me and asked me if I was willing to become the despatcher and manager of his shipping and receiving department. Reason? According to Luddite (to whom he had reached out, although how he put the two of us together is a mystery to me), “I remember that he was a flaming asshole. I really need a guy like that to keep my drivers and brokers in tow.”
(And to those who are going to quip about me still being a flaming asshole, you have no idea. I’m positively sane, mellow, and Christian–in the positive, loving your neighbors sense–by comparison to those days. But yes, for the most part not that much has changed.)
@Jack: A Trump supporter complaining about lying? LOL.
They are both old. Trump’s struggled to form sentences and walk down ramps for years. A smart person would pause for some reflection right about now.
Biden is old. He’s had a history of stuttering. But there’s been no fraud. It’s a tough job that takes a physical toll on people, and you need to realize that your candidate and the GOP have lied repeatedly to the American people so maybe just settle down.