Three-quarters of US voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. His approval rating also has hit a new low following a shaky performance in the first debate of this year’s presidential campaign.
Two immediate reactions. First, “someone else” isn’t a real option, it is a Rorschach test. I never see much analytical usage for any question that is “Do you want specific thing or theoretically any other thing in this category that you can think of?” This is not helpful. A second thought is that this is a registered voter poll, which is not helpful for this decision. If Biden is going to be persuaded his exit will lead to victory, it would need to be based on solid likely voter numbers.
Here are the exact parameters of the poll.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 among a random national sample of 1,274 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,045 registered voters. Surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For results among registered voters, it is plus or minus 3.7 points.
More important than the drama is this:
In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall.
Ok, so this bit of data suggests that despite all of the panic, and the reason the question about “someone else” was asked, the debate, did not have an effect on the race. If that is true, it is going to be hard to convince Biden he needs to leave, even if the polling remains favorable to Trump.
Don’t get me wrong; there are reasons for Democrats to fear a Trump victory. But that was true before the debate and thus far I have not seen actual data that shows that the debate performance has affected the overall contours of the race that way it has the minds of the pundit class.
Also from the poll is a presentation of data that I find annoying because it omits “I don’t know” as one of the options (and because it is of registered, not likely, voters).
These voters are also more likely to support an alternative Democrat against Trump than they are to choose Biden. In hypothetical matchups, they break 47% for Harris to 34% for Trump, 42% for Newsom to 36% for Trump, and 42% for Buttigieg to 35% for Trump.
I would be more impressed if any of the Biden replacements were scoring substantially higher than he is. Here I think we are seeing as many people who may not even know for sure who these people are and are responding “I don’t know.” Yes, it is heartening for Democrats to see Trump in the 30s but we all know that isn’t the number he will get in the general (not to mention the real question will be the swing states).
Worth noting:
Among the full US public, Biden’s favorability rating stands at just 34%, with 58% viewing him unfavorably. And while many of the Democratic names bandied about as possible replacements for Biden are less widely disliked, none would start with more public goodwill – instead, they are less well known. Harris has the widest recognition – and is also deeply underwater, with a 29% favorability rating, 49% rating her unfavorably, and 22% saying they have no opinion or haven’t heard of her. Roughly half of the public has no opinion on Buttigieg (50%) and Newsom (48%), with about two-thirds (69%) offering no opinion of Whitmer.
So, Harris is about as unpopular as Biden and the others are largely unknown. These are not solid data upon which to build an argument to oust Biden.
When I heard this morning on NPR that a new CNN poll had bad news for Biden, I thought his head-to-head numbers had plunged, not that he had lost a hypothetical question about a fantasy candidate. Again, the headline should be that his overall numbers appear unaffected by the debate (but, of course, that spoils the narrative).
I understand the concern about Biden and there is a part of my brain that thinks rolling the dice for Harris might be worth the gamble, but I think people need to understand it’s a gamble (and is the only viable play other than standing pat). However, I will continue to underscore that getting Biden to step down is a tall order, and it will take more than being within the margin of error in the head-to-head matchup to get him to so.
