Economy Polling Redux
Revisiting a post from yesterday.
Yesterday I noted the following graph:
In my brief write-up, I noted the shift for Harris upward, but I managed to not pay attention to the bottom line of the graph.
I saw these numbers again this morning in a news story and it hit me: what the poll is showing is that a number of likely undecided voters (or, at least, ones who were unwilling to say the supported Biden) now feel like they can support Harris. Note that the Trump line does not really move and the “Neither” line has been steady for months. The shift from July to August is a clear indication that the change in candidates for the Democrats has substantially altered the party’s chances. Of course, the question now is whether Harris can maintain (or even further grow) trust in this area.
I would further argue that this graph underscores my ongoing theory of the race insofar as Trump’s support had a hard ceiling and the question has always been whether Harris (or Biden before her) could motivate the support/turnout needed to over-top that ceiling.
The polling, of various types, has shown the two-party share of support to be far below where were are likely to end up (see some of the numbers in this post). If Harris can draw those voters who have been flirting with third-party candidates, or simply not voting, she wins the election.
I will reiterate something I noted in a couple of comments on the prior post. The information that this poll is giving us is not about what knowledge or understanding voters have about the economy. It isn’t polling their policy acumen. It is judging their views of the candidates. This is useful information in determining how the candidate change affected the race as well as to give us a sense of the general direction that support is going.
Yes, it is at this point absurd to continue to maintain that only Biden could beat Trump.
@Michael Reynolds: Serious question: is anyone of note maintaining that? (or even not of note?).
@Michael and Steven: If the question is “only” Biden, I think the answer is no. I suspect there are still those out there who think that “even” Biden could still beat Trump.
@Joe:
Really well phrased.
I sure hope nobody reading this site thinks Biden ever had a chance against Trump. Remember: In all non-snark reality, Biden and his team actually thought the 2022 non-red-wave was solely due to Biden’s policies with zero credit to something that happened at USSC.
I think the bounce is reflecting the polling that said for most of earlier 2024 that Generic Democrat would be up nearly 10 on Trump but Biden was consistently down.
@Steven L. Taylor:
I, and others here, were repeatedly attacked by other commentators as turncoats, backstabbers, traitors, etc… We were told again and again that we were dooming the party, only Biden could win and on and on. We were accused, bizarrely, of being racist. At one point a commenter threatened to send me his dic pic.
So, yes, Steven, many people here maintained exactly that.
@Michael Reynolds: It is the word “continue” that I was reacting to.
I agree people thought it before the switch.
Your initial post seems to be about now and your response to me to be about the past.
@Gavin:
I will own it: I did.
I think Harris clearly now has a better chance than he did.