Yesterday I noted the following graph:
In my brief write-up, I noted the shift for Harris upward, but I managed to not pay attention to the bottom line of the graph.
I saw these numbers again this morning in a news story and it hit me: what the poll is showing is that a number of likely undecided voters (or, at least, ones who were unwilling to say the supported Biden) now feel like they can support Harris. Note that the Trump line does not really move and the “Neither” line has been steady for months. The shift from July to August is a clear indication that the change in candidates for the Democrats has substantially altered the party’s chances. Of course, the question now is whether Harris can maintain (or even further grow) trust in this area.
I would further argue that this graph underscores my ongoing theory of the race insofar as Trump’s support had a hard ceiling and the question has always been whether Harris (or Biden before her) could motivate the support/turnout needed to over-top that ceiling.
The polling, of various types, has shown the two-party share of support to be far below where were are likely to end up (see some of the numbers in this post). If Harris can draw those voters who have been flirting with third-party candidates, or simply not voting, she wins the election.
I will reiterate something I noted in a couple of comments on the prior post. The information that this poll is giving us is not about what knowledge or understanding voters have about the economy. It isn’t polling their policy acumen. It is judging their views of the candidates. This is useful information in determining how the candidate change affected the race as well as to give us a sense of the general direction that support is going.
