Outside the Beltway

Comments

1. gVOR10 says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 05:18

   Scott Lemieux at LGM notes a special election for state senate in Texas. Trump won the district by 17 points. A badly underfunded Dem just flipped the seat, winning by 14.

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2. charontwo says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 07:21

   @gVOR10:

   “Strength in Numbers”

   Suburbs northwest of Ft. Worth, analysis of results.

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3. charontwo says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 07:31

   Just posted analysis of Fox News poll:

   “Strength in Numbers“
4. Scott says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 08:31

   @gVOR10: And, perhaps more importantly, Christian Menefee won the 18th Congressional district, finally adding a vacant (vacant for 11 months) Democratic vote to Congress.

   Eleven months! How does that not violate some Constitutional right to representation?

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5. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 08:52

   February is Black History Month

   “Be peaceful, be courteous, obey the law, respect everyone; but if someone puts his hand on you, send him to the cemetery.”
   ― Malcolm X

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6. Jen says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 08:53

   The election of Christian Menefee in TX-18 is important for representation in Congress.

   But flipping a +17 Trump State Senate district like Taylor Rehmet has just done…that is something to write home about.

   Again, I am reminded of the string of special elections I worked on in Missouri in the 90s. One seat after another was flipped, and then the midterms saw the US House switch control. Special elections are quirky, yes. But any (honest) Republican campaign expert has to see this as a very very bad sign.

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7. Scott says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 09:09

   @Jen: Here is the craziness of this district. Yes, Menefee won the spot but now he faces another primary on March 3rd for a totally new gerrymandered district against Al Green and Amanda Edwards (who he just beat). After that is the election in November.

   BTW, I’ve been moved from the 8th to the 38th district in the redistricting. We have a primary March 3rd and still not sure who is even running. I’ve only gotten postcards from Republicans who seems pretty close to be neo-Confederate, Christian Nationalists. Haven’t received anything from the Democratic side of the aisle. BTW, we have open primaries so I can vote in either.

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8. Jen says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 09:38

   @Scott:

   Here is the craziness of this district. Yes, Menefee won the spot but now he faces another primary on March 3rd for a totally new gerrymandered district against Al Green and Amanda Edwards (who he just beat). After that is the election in November.

   Yep. Special elections just fill the remainder of the term, and Speaker Johnson certainly screwed around with the people of Houston’s right to representation. He’s such a little weasel. Gov. Abbott’s attempts to gerrymander TF out of the state in a mid-term redistricting, makes him an unprincipled partisan hack in this mess. I find most (all?) of the current Republican officeholders morally reprehensible.

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9. charontwo says:
   Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 11:07

   People in Springfield, OH are worried DHS may be teeing up another round of Haitian targeting.

   Timothy Snyder:

   “Timothy Snyder”

   In the schools and churches of Springfield, Ohio, people are making hasty preparations for a “large deportation” promised by the president. To all appearances, and according to local sources, the city is two or three days away from a federal ethnic cleansing, grounded in a hate campaign organized by the vice-president and American Nazis. The destined victims are ten thousand or more Haitians.

   Its origins are in racist fantasy. During the last presidential campaign, JD Vance, then the vice-presidential nominee, put the Haitians of Springfield at the center of national attention. Temporary Protected Status had been granted to non-citizen Haitians in the US after an earthquake in Haiti killed more than 200,000 people; it was extended after the Haitian president was assassinated. This allowed ten thousand or more Haitians to gather in Springfield, a small city between Dayton and Columbus, and to work. Vance heard about Haitians in Springfield, from a city manager who wanted federal assistance for housing. He turned a reasonable request into a racial crusade.

   …

   An ICE surge in Ohio is not inevitable. Trump could stop his promised “large deportation.” Perhaps Vance or Kristi Noem could stop it. It can be halted, by a court ruling tomorrow, Monday the second of February.

   And if the horror is not stopped, it can at least be resisted, recorded, given its place in history by those with the courage to be present and to speak about what they see. And the seeing, just the seeing, is of huge importance, for all of us. When we see, we can feel and we can act. We can empathize, communicate, shelter, protest, help.

   “Link”

   The Trump administration has set a date to end protected status for Haitians on Feb. 3, barring any action from a federal appellate court. This also means they will lose their work authorization, so they will no longer be authorized to work legally.

   “At that point, they could potentially be arrested, detained, or put in removal proceedings unless they have already applied for some other form of relief they have in addition to TPS, or that they are applying for in addition to TPS,” said Emily Brown, Ohio State University Moritz College of Law’s Immigration Clinic Director.

   U.S. District Court Judge Ana C. Reyes will decide whether to suspend the expiration of the protected status for Haitians and her decision is expected Feb. 2.

   I am saving the Snyder piece for reference, it’s very long, goes into great detail what happened in Springfield in 2024, including the instigation by a bunch of NAZI’s called Blood Tribe, also J D Vance.

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10. Scott says:
    Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 11:27

    @charontwo: Multiple people can play the immigrant game. After all, JD Vance is the type of internal immigration that came out of Appalachia and migrated to Ohio, ruining a fine, post Civil War, economically successful state. We called them “Briars”.

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11. Kingdaddy says:
    Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 16:04

    If you want something to listen to after Bruce’s protest song, how about this performance of “Heroes” by David Bowie? The people of Minneapolis definitely deserve it (and a Peace Prize).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsYp9q3QNaQ

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12. Mikey says:
    Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 16:53

    @gVOR10:

    A badly underfunded Dem just flipped the seat

    “Badly underfunded” may be the understatement of the year, at least so far. The losing Republican raised $2.3 million. The victorious Democrat? $346,000.

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