Friday’s Forum

FILED UNDER: Open Forum
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Scott says:

    Apparently, servicemembers must jump through hoops to prove their “sincerely held religious beliefs”. Will that open up a can of legal worms for the rest of society?

    Service members must prove sincere religious beliefs for facial hair waivers

    U.S. service members will now be granted religious exemptions from grooming standards only on “sincerely held religious beliefs,” according to a recent Pentagon memorandum.

    Current service members and those applying for military service who request an exception for religious reasons must provide “a sworn written attestation affirming the requester’s belief is sincerely held and religious in nature,” according to the March 11 Department of Defense memorandum.

    In their requests, service members must provide statements describing the specific religious beliefs that are held and explanations of how the current clean-shaven grooming standard conflicts with their exercise of religion, per the memo.

    Troops must also provide evidence that their religious beliefs are “sincerely held,” such as personal testimonies or corroborating statements from religious leaders or community members.

    Will this be in conflict with existing law? The term is used quite broadly in civil society. Currently, I believe an employer cannot challenge an employees “sincerely held religious belief”. Under these regulations, a serviceman must “prove” his beliefs.

    BTW, religious headgear such as a Sikh turban or a yarmulke are allowed as part of the uniform.

    Seems that these rules may be deemed arbitrary and capricious.

    2
  2. Scott says:

    The Middle East is so complex that the US would be better off leaving it to themselves. But no, we are drawn in and expected to expend blood and treasure for objectives we don’t understand.

    Islamic State Containment Is Collapsing in Syria

    Less than a month after the repeal of Caesar Act sanctions, Syria’s transitional president Ahmad al Sharaa launched an offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, triggering Arab tribal defections and a rapid loss of territory. The fallout has jeopardized Islamic State containment in northeast Syria by disrupting intelligence networks built by the Syrian Democratic Forces, widening security gaps, and degrading detention-and-camp control. The most acute consequence has been mass escapes from the al-Hol refugee camp, which held approximately 24,000 family members linked to the Islamic State. A recent U.S. intelligence assessment estimates that roughly 15,000–20,000 individuals are now at large.

    In spite of these developments, Washington is doubling down on a Damascus-centered approach, pressing the Syrian Democratic Forces toward integration and treating the central state as the successor partner. The premise is that a unified Syrian state under al Sharaa can absorb the burden of countering the Islamic State and enable a U.S. military drawdown. Until recently, the United States kept a limited but consequential footprint in northeast Syria to support Syrian Democratic Forces’ operations against the Islamic State. It also held the al-Tanf garrison along the Syria–Jordan–Iraq corridor, a critical forward platform for surveillance and disruption. Washington has since handed over al-Tanf to Damascus and is in the process of withdrawing its remaining 1,000 troops from Syria within a month.

    1
  3. Jax says:

    1st day of chemo yesterday. Another round today and tomorrow. The worst part about the whole experience so far was after the drugs wore off from the chemo port placement. 😉

    And the people. My God, this Huntsman’s Cancer Institute and the University of Utah Hospital complex is a city unto itself. I bet there were 150- 200 people all getting infusions the same time I was.

    Fingers crossed the next two infusions leave me feeling relatively human like this one did!

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  4. drj says:

    @Scott:

    Islamic State Containment Is Collapsing in Syria

    What’s new? Without the US doing stupid shit in the Middle East, there would have been no IS in the first place – or at least not in the shape and form that it took in this timeline.

    IS is/was basically the Sunni Iraqi insurgency (against the US and Iran-backed Shiite-dominated post-Saddam government) that moved to Syria after the original participants in that country’s civil war had largely exhausted themselves and then moved back to Mosul and other parts of Iraq.

    Bonus fun fact: the Trump government (Vance especially) is now openly fomenting/supporting political discontent in various European countries about the fact that said countries offered asylum to a not insignificant number of Syrian refugees.

    Yet another triumph of US diplomacy…

    5
  5. Kylopod says:

    @Scott: Despite some recent court decisions, the degree to which an employees’ religious beliefs are accepted as falling under the “reasonable accommodations” requirement of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is still complex, and conservatives tend to be quite a bit less in favor of accommodation when it comes to practices found mostly in non-Christian faiths. Facial hair in particular has been a point of contention for a long time, not just because of the religious issue, but also because of a medical condition common among black men making shaving difficult.

    4
  6. becca says:

    There’s an investigation underway as to whether the fire onboard the Ford was intentionally started by crew members.

    1
  7. Barry_D says:

    @Kylopod: “… and conservatives tend to be quite a bit less in favor of accommodation when it comes to practices found mostly in non-Christian faiths.”

    I will wager that that also goes for politically liberal beliefs.

    5
  8. Slugger says:

    I see that the Pentagon is asking for an additional $200 billion to fund the war. Government spending usually 1. is on target with requests, 2. comes in under, 3. goes over budget, or 4. goes way over budget. You pick.

    1
  9. Scott says:

    @becca: That was my first dark thought when I read about it a couple of days ago. Especially since the normal planned 7 month deployment kept getting extended.

    As an AF retiree I don’t want to believe that is true.

    2
  10. gVOR10 says:

    @becca: I would find this easy to believe, but the only source I found quickly was this, which WIKI says has been known to post misinfo. This sounds like it might be inflating a routine investigation. Got a better cite?

    I did a lot of work for the Ford and take an interest. I was aboard a couple times at the shipyard. The crew starting to come on board looked like a high school class and the enlisted quarters are not terribly comfortable.

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  11. Kathy says:
  12. becca says:

    @gVOR10: I don’t know if this site is any more credible, but this one
    https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-navy-investigates-sabotage-uss-gerald-r-ford-fire-1786273 echos first post.
    The Military Times hints at the possibility, reporting on the very low morale. The Ford deployment was extended twice and the crew exhausted.
    I am sympathetic to the sailors, if it’s true.

  13. Gustopher says:

    @drj:

    Bonus fun fact: the Trump government (Vance especially) is now openly fomenting/supporting political discontent in various European countries about the fact that said countries offered asylum to a not insignificant number of Syrian refugees.

    Europe has plenty of its own discontent on that front.

    Given the rightward reaction in Europe to Syrian refugees, and the rightward reaction at home to Venezuelan refugees, I’ve been thinking the US should have a foreign policy based in part on stopping refugee crises — even if it means toppling governments people are fleeing from.

    This administration would make a mess of it of course.

    1
  14. Kathy says:

    It’s not true the US fights forever wars. They fight forever quagmires.

    And it’s beginning to look a lot like quagmire now.

    The US military is deploying thousands of additional marines and sailors to the Middle East, three American officials have told the Reuters news agency.

    One of the officials said that the USS Boxer, along with the Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard, were leaving the US about three weeks ahead of schedule. It is not clear what the mission is.

    Sending troops to the region, unclear mission, incompetent pretend president, incompetent (and drunk or hungover) pretend defense secretary… It really doesn’t get more quagmire than this.

    The one saving grace is the volubility and shamelessness of El Taco. If things get seriously bad, he’s very likely to simply end things, declare the greatest victory ever in the history of greatest ever victorias ever!!!!!!111!!!, and go home. And if a few dozens or hundreds of US troops get wounded or killed in a poorly planned retreat, well, that’s what they signed up for. Besides, no one knew a retreat under fire could be so dangerous! And no one has ever accomplished such a beautiful evacuation of macho fighting men! And have you seen the ballroom???

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  15. Scott says:

    Latest on Trump’s War Tax:

    What I paid.

    28 Feb: $2.29/gallon
    20 Mar: $3.19/gallon

    90 cents tax on hard working Americans.

  16. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:

    Unleaded Regular March 20, 2026
    Carbondale, Illinois

    1 outlet: $4.299/gal
    1 outlet: $4.109/gal
    7 outlets $3.999/gal

    Happy Vernal Equinox Y’all!

  17. Jen says:

    *Checks calendar.*

    Nope, not April 1.

    How are there so many loose bolts in this administration?

    Top disaster response official claims he teleported to a Waffle House

    1
  18. becca says:

    Listening to bbc while cleaning.
    Trump called NATO members cowards for not joining his war.
    The IEA head is saying this is the worst energy crisis in history.
    Bibi said something about Genghis Khan being as significant as Jesus. Not going over well with the evangenitals.

    1
  19. gVOR10 says:

    Fascinating interview in NYT today (gift link). Ezra Klein interviewed Naomi Klein. Naomi Klein wrote a book, Doppelgänger: A Trip Into the Mirror World. It’s occasioned by being confused online with Naomi Wolf. Wolf was a respected author and lefty political consultant, but she made a serious error. She wrote that many gay men were executed in Victorian England because the court record showed “death recorded”. She took that literally, but discovered, in a live TV discussion, that it was actually a fudge, that while they were convicted on a capital charge, nothing was actually done. Destroyed her career so she became a RW influencer, “It’s not just that we were mean to them. It’s that they did something maybe unforgivable, and then got really shamed for it. And then they were embraced in this other world where facts matter a lot less.”

    But the interview ranges more widely. Good insights into our current situation. It’s long and defies excerpting, but a few samples.

    I’m really interested in the work that conspiracy culture is playing in how it distracts from conspiracies that are real. I never doubted that there was a conspiracy that Epstein was involved in. That’s been clear for a long time.

    The reason people are being drawn to conspiracy culture is that we all feel that this world is rigged against us. Power and wealth have concentrated so much over the past half-century, and the impunity that follows from that is so extreme.

    I think it’s really important not to just dismiss it as a conspiracy theory just because it has the structure of QAnon. I think QAnon has the structure of — sort of like why antisemitism was called, is still called, the socialism of fools. It kind of explains how capitalism works, except it twists it so it’s just a cabal of rich Jews.

    But we need stories to explain our reality. We need them, and so do the superelites. One of the things that the files do is provide a window into the stories that elites are telling themselves to justify how much wealth they have, how much power they have — and that brings us to their obsession with eugenics and this idea that they are a better stock than everybody else.

    Yes. I think it’s inextricable from the fact that we live in a time when, if you’re rich enough, you think the rules don’t apply to you — like Elon Musk just laughing when journalists ask him for any accountability. He used to send a poop emoji, and now he sends an autoreply that says: Mainstream media lies.

    But I see these things as really interrelated — I say the past 50 years — because this is the counterrevolution against the New Deal era, right? This is what I wrote about in “The Shock Doctrine” — this is the revolution against regulation. It’s the era of privatization and unmaking of the state, and it really produces the oligarch class.

    … fascism is a pathology of injured power. It emerges in Italy and in Germany in the injuries of World War I.

    It’s soldiers and generals and industrialists who are hurt by the sanctions. But it’s powerful people who are hurt. Whereas left revolutions are powerless people who are hurt. And these vertical coalitions get built with people who had relative power and are losing power.

    Highly recommend reading the whole thing.

    1
  20. becca says:

    @gVOR10: you know, the Washington Consensus back about 1970 was all about deregulation and privatization. The right wingers have been ranting about”job killing regulations” for decades. The same with privatizing everything. If they had their way we would have to pay a toll to cross a street. There is no such thing as public good.
    All about the monied class amassing more and more, as always. Enough never being enough with these types. And add in Citizens United and drug addled techbros moving fast and breaking things put it all into overdrive.
    Also, it seems the more extreme the weather gets, the more extreme the behavior of people.

  21. Michael Reynolds says:

    @gVOR10:
    You know, if racists wanted to at least appear reality-based, they’d have to admit that there might be races superior to their own. Maybe just one or two. They’d be more credible if they claimed to be just the third best race. Of course racism is always an admission of a sense of inferiority.

    1
  22. Michael Reynolds says:

    This is not reassuring.

    A drone sighting that temporarily raised alarms at one of the United States Air Force’s largest and most strategic airfields earlier this month was more extensive, and potentially more dangerous, than first reported, according to a confidential internal briefing document reviewed by ABC News.

    Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana said it was under a shelter-in-place order March 9 after “a report of an unmanned aerial system operating over the installation.”

    The sighting raised concerns because Barksdale houses long-range B-52 bombers and plays a critical role in command and control of the Air Force nuclear defense capabilities.

    The shelter-in-place order was lifted later that day but the unauthorized drone flights continued for nearly a week.

    “Barksdale Air Force Base detected multiple unauthorized drones operating in our airspace during the week of March 9th,” Capt. Hunter Rininger of the 2nd Bomb Wing said in a statement provided to ABC News. The additional drone incursions had not been previously reported.

    Multiple drones of unknown origin flew above nuke-capable B52s. For a week? And we’re just hearing about this?

    ETA: Terrorists are going to mimic smart-weapon precision. Counter-force. It will make their PR so much more effective.

    1
  23. JohnSF says:

    A new items that caught my eye:
    Danish forces sent to Greenland in January had instructions to destroy runways with demolition charges, and to fight any US forces engaged in hostile activity. They also brought in additional blood supplies for the local hospitals.
    It’s a pretty sure bet the other European forces deployed were aware of those orders, and ready to assist. Also that French naval units were operating in the Iceland/Faroes area.

    In other words, one stupid order from Trump and the US and European-NATO would have been shooting at each other.
    (I suspected this was the case at the time, from Danish government statements that Danish armed forces being under standing orders to resist any attacks on Danish territory, etc.)

    And now Trump is amazed that Europeans are reluctant to get involved in his fatuous misadventures in the Persian Gulf?

    The sorry thing being we may have to, because now Iran seems intent on holding the Gulf and the global economy hostage to their own fantasies: they appear to demanding compensation, the removal of US bases from the region, enforcing a general cease-fire on Israel (and by extension the de facto right of Iran to support Hezbollah etc) and “international guarantees” of all this.

    This could be read as just a “bargaining position”. But I fear the current IRGC dominated rulers in Iran are serious about this.
    Just as was Trump initially, they are deluding themselves about their strngth and what they can realistically demand in a peace deal.
    And will therefore continue to shut Hormuz and strike at Gulf targets in pursuit of it.

    The rest of the world cannot tolerate either American or Iranian fantasies much longer.

    On the subject of American fantasies, WSJ reports (paywalled) state General Caine warned Trump that Iran would close the straits, but Trump

    “told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.”

    That the regime would either fold or collapse, and a Trump could either install a government of his own chosing, or deal with a cowed regime-rump as per Venezuela.

    And no contingency plans for this not happening were authorised.
    What a farce.

    Indications are the Gulf states were told (or just assumed? unclear) it would be a limited attack as per last June, on air defences, missiles, and such, following a break in negotiations, to reinforce the US negotiating position, but so massive and general as to trigger an all-out Iranian response. And definitely not “regime decapitation”.

    There also continue to be hints that it was Netanyahu that advance the concept from the US one of “large scale military destruction” and assumed regime negotiation and/or collapse to “regime decapitation”,and got Trump to approve the IDF taking the “target of opportunity” of the Khamenei high level meeting on 28 February.

    So here we are, all up to our necks in the mire Trump and Netyahu have pitched us into.

    This simply cannot go on for more than a month or so, not only because of the wider economic effects, but the direct ones on the Gulf countries: without exports their economies will collapse.
    Without food imports their societies will collapse.

    The US due to Trump having no contingency plans, lacks the forces in place, or available anytime soon, to secure the straits. Not to mention lacking a reasonable political basis for committing US forces to a serious land war.

    No wonder he is thrashing about and searching for a magical escape route, via other countries securing the straits, or a Kharg adventure, or just “keep bombing and hope for the best”, or else just declare victory and depart.
    As per his remarks about all Iran’s leaders being dead, and all their military destroyed.

    But now the the Pasdaran have also go the bit between their teeth, and seem to hope not just for survival but to continue the war even if the US tries to back out, and push for “maximal demands” of their own: de facto Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf.

    It’s an utter nightmare.

    3
  24. Michael Reynolds says:

    @JohnSF:
    Logically the Japanese should have folded after Midway, if not Coral Sea. Deal-making doesn’t work as well with societies into martyrdom. Iran’s going full Götterdämmerung. Or full Sampson for a Middle East reference.

    1
  25. JohnSF says:

    One European view.
    A comment on the FT website

    “Let me get all of this straight in my head. They want their allies to join in an ill-thought-out war of choice with unclear aims and an uncertain chance of success for any of the myriad aims stated so far. They want everyone else to just absorb any of the externalities, like influxes of refugees, disruptions to shipping, higher oil and commodity prices, and maybe even some incoming missiles. And then they also want to tariff everyone at 15 percent.”

    3
  26. JohnSF says:

    @Michael Reynolds:
    Or the Germans after D-Day.
    Generalfeldmarschall Gerd von Rundstedt, when asked on July 1, 1944 what should be done:

    “Make peace, you fools! What else can you do?”

    Or for that matter, Germany 1914 the moment the Schlieffen Plan failed.
    Or the South in the Civil War after Gettysburg and Vicksburg.
    Or the US in Vietnam after it was obvious Diem was failing.
    etc etc
    The pursuit of vain hope is a sorry tale in war.
    (otoh, sometimes it works out; arguably the UK fighting on in 1940 was a bit of a gamble)

    Iran’s going full Götterdämmerung

    With Trump playing a particularly stupid giant, and Bibi taking the role of Loki?

    1
  27. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    To top it all of, the war is insanely popular in Israel, and El Taco’s cabinet, base, and some of minions in Congress, think he’s a genius. So neither will face any internal pressure to stop. Perhaps not even if Congress refuses to authorize the extra $200 billion Whiskey pete asked for.

    The war is very unpopular in the US, and the rise in gas prices is even less popular than a trump at a picnic. This should mean a massive electoral loss in November. And, the way I see things, this means El Taco will definitely steal the midterms. This requires going full fascist.

    1
  28. JohnSF says:

    @gVOR10:
    Gift link doesn’t work for me.
    But judging from your excerpt, Klein is repeating a common, but misleading explantion of fascism being a conservative/capitalist elite reaction to defeats and threats to power.
    It’s one that has been a staple of rather lazy left-anlysis ever since the 1920’s, and still more from the 1930’s
    It overlooks the reality that, though elites various latched onto fascism as a defence against communism (or even just democratic socialialm), that was not the origin and basis and ideology of the fascists themselves.

    They were primarily the product of the lower middle class, artisans, and “upper” working class.
    Hitler generally rather despised the aristocracy, and viewed the industrialist capitalists merely as tools to be used or broken.
    It’s impossible to understand fascism if its ignored that it was a deeply revolutionary and demotic tendency.

    MAGA is similar, but less revoutionary, more reactionary, and far less of a structured movement aimed at total social mobilisation in pursuit of its goals.

    Ironically, MAGA seems even more comitted than either Italian fascism ot German Nazism to the the attitude that “whatever the leader decrees is what we desire!”
    And given that leader is Trump, and Trump is a fickle and grifting moron, it effectively has no coherent programme at all.

    And therefore the techbros, and other elites, can all latch on and hope to bend “Trumpism” to suit their own interests.

  29. JohnSF says:

    @Kathy:

    “… the war is insanely popular in Israel”

    Sort of makes sense re Israel: they view Pasdaran-ruled Iran as an ongoing existential threat.
    Not entirely unreasonably, as Iran has repeatedly stated, quite explicitly, that it is.
    Thus almost any outcome of the war that weakens Iran is acceptable, and the more, the better.
    I’ll remark, this was not a policy Iran was forced to pursue: it was one the Pasdaran and the mullahs chose.
    So even Israelis who loathe Netanyahu are generally pleased to see Iran getting wrecked.

    They might step back a little, imho, and realise that the damage to other countries – the world in general, and Arabians/Gulfies in particular- is doing them no favours.

    The MAGA base would likely continue to chant “Trump is a genius” even were they marching into the gates of hell.
    Their attempts in social media to insist that “it’s all just fine” are a jaw-dropping wonder to behold.
    “We don’t need to secure the straits! Euroweenies must do it! But they’re useless! But Trump trapped them! We’ve got oil anyway, we’ll be fine! etc etc”
    A massive attempt to impose rhetoric over reality.
    MAGA is really populist post-modernism a lot of the time.
    Or to many sad gamers taking “Assassin’s Creed” a bit too literally :
    “Nothing is true. Anything is permissable”

    Unfortunately for them, war is often a very harsh imposition of recalcitrant reality upon happy self-deception.
    “What is the sound of one hand slapping you upside the head?”

    2
  30. JohnSF says:

    @Michael Reynolds:
    Non-funnily enough, a lot of Nazi anti-semitism seems to have been predicated upon Jews being “superior”, if you follow the idiocy through to the obvious conclusions of its own postulates.
    So much racism seems to be based on personal insecurity with half-understood “vulgar Darwinism” spatchcocked onto it.

    Almost every “aryan supremacist” I’ve ever encountered has been a rather convincing argument to the contrary.

    Not to mention my question (if sufficiently annoyed): “Define race, you dimwit.”
    (American definitions of “race” and “ethnicity” may well be valid in regard to American society and politics, but are often make very little sense when applied to other contexts.)

    1
  31. Michael Reynolds says:

    @JohnSF:
    I fought that, ‘My race? Homo sapiens,‘ fight for a while and lost.

    People need an enemy and it’s always, ‘the other,’ as defined by race, religion or ideology. Life’s losers are like explosives lying around, just waiting for someone to give them a fuse and a match. And there’s never a shortage of people willing to shamelessly weaponize those people.

    2
  32. JohnSF says:

    @Michael Reynolds:
    I’m sometimes tempted to come out fighting for Homo neanderthalensis
    It would have been an interesting alternative history if actuallly speciation-differing Homo had made it through to modern times.
    Humans seem to have a bit of a default to “group identification”.
    But the whole drive of modernity is to transcend all such defaults; otherwise, what’s the point?
    Those who feel themselves hard done by will generally seek a scapegoat; the obvious rational reaponse is to minimise the numbers who have reason to feel hard done by, and to maximise education and opportunity.
    (And perhaps sometimes to stomp on those who continue to be arseholes)

    1
  33. Kathy says:

    @JohnSF:

    Not entirely unreasonably, as Iran has repeatedly stated, quite explicitly, that it is.

    Isn’t that like El Taco calling himself smart?

    What can Iran do to Israel militarily? Absent a nuke and a delivery system, pretty much very little.

    There’s Hamas and Hezbollah, both backed by Iran. That’s more serious, especially after October 7 (and how much it mattered that Bibi’s policies left the area poorly defended?) But hardly an existential threat.

    Nor have Bibi or his lapdog said much about Iran’s support for such groups, or demanded an end to it. All the big proclamations have been about missiles and the infamous nuclear program.

  34. Kathy says:

    Hm, some good news to close out the day: A jury found Adolf liable for losses by Twitter investors

    This means less than it sounds like.

  35. Kathy says:

    It’s 4:35 am and all’s quiet on the Extended Hell Week front.

    That’s one problem with getting ahead of the work: others don’t, and I get stuck waiting for them to catch up. granted, my part is relatively easy, or at least less massive in scope. Still, now and then I think maybe I should get more involved in the wastepaper aspect of proposals, and see if I can do any better.

    Fortunately the feeling passes.

    I did deal with wastepaper in the past, and I hated it. In part it was having to rely on others. Namely on those who don’t face strict deadlines, be they suppliers, bureaucrats, or coworkers form other departments, and who don’t quite get why i can’t wait past my deadline to get some crucially important piece of paper

    Don’t mind me, I’m just ranting and trying to stay awake

    The other day while watching Stargate, I thought up this line:

    “It would be bad diplomacy to speak frankly and with disdain to an ally. The only thing worse than bad diplomacy is failed diplomacy. Since no one has seen fit to inform you, Senator, let me be the first to tell you: sir, you are a fucking moron.”

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