The Republicans are currently up 60 seats and, Jim Geraghty notes, “We’re still waiting on official calls or concessions in 11 House races; all of them feature Democrat incumbents.”
The Republicans are currently up 60 seats and, Jim Geraghty notes, “We’re still waiting on official calls or concessions in 11 House races; all of them feature Democrat incumbents.” Truly stunning.
Stunning, perhaps, to someone who time-traveled forward from 2008, but not really stunning compared to the predictions. Nate Silver’s 95% confidence level for how many seats they would pick up ranged from something like 25 to 85. Other people who know nothing of statistics yammered on as if 55 was set in stone.
His post from Nov. 1st:
He gave a one-third chance of them gaining 60, and a one-sixth chance of them gaining 70. So we were on the high side, but nothing incredible.
@Franklin: Sure, but these things work both ways. Silver also wrote posts, as recently as yesterday, as to why the Democrats could win the House.
I’m not arguing that this is the most bewildering development in the history of American politics. Merely, that this is a higher-than-expected margin. And it’s especially interesting that literally ALL of the too-close-to-call races are ones with Democratic incumbents.
