Let me start by noting I am on the same basic page as James Joyner regarding the fact that there is no real competition going on in the GOP primary and that lion’s share of the coverage makes it sound like a real contest when it isn’t. Indeed, I can only assume that Haley and her financial backers are betting that there is a sufficiently high chance that Trump will be convicted before the convention and she is positioning herself to be the party’s emergency Trump replacement. No other explanation makes much sense, not even positioning herself for 2028.
But I do want to address something that Trump said after his victory in South Carolina:
“I have never seen the Republican Party so unified as it is right now,” Trump declared, taking the stage for his victory speech mere moments after polls closed.
It will come as a shock, no doubt, to many readers, but this statement is not accurate. Indeed, Trump himself witnessed a much more unified GOP in 2020 when he ran for re-election.
I would note the following (all via Fox News):
- 48.99% (share of anti-Trump vote in the Iowa caucuses)
- 45.66% (share of the anti-Trump vote in the New Hampshire Primary)
- 40.21% (share of the anti-Trump vote in the South Carolina Primary)
I will note that the Nevada caucus was a sign of unity (Trump received 99.11% of that vote) but in the primary portion of that contest, 36.74% of voters chose a candidate who was neither Trump nor “none of these candidates.”
This is not, by definition, unity. This is a situation wherein is clear that Trump does not have full support even of voters willing to vote in a nominating process wherein it is clear who is going to win each contest. Put another way, there are tens of thousands of Republican primary voters out there willing to go to the polls to simply express their desire that someone other than Trump be the nominee.
If Dean Phillips was peeling off these kinds of numbers against Biden it would both be true that Biden would be winning, but also that the press would consider him in major trouble. And while Biden’s position as the incumbent would exacerbate and amplify division in the party, it should be noted that Trump is, for all practical purposes, essentially an incumbent (or, as close as you can get without actually being in office while running).
At a minimum, I think that press coverage of this race should not be treating Trump’s party as unified (since he is obviously going to be the nominee) and start asking why so many Republicans are saying they don’t want him. (If Dean Phillips could even get 20% of the vote, the press would be freaking out about how the Democrats are not fully behind their guy).
The press is pretty much treating the GOP as unified,* but it isn’t. Now yes, as I have noted for years, the structure of presidential elections and the power of partisanship will mean that the lion’s share of these primary voters will shift to Trump for the general election. But I would still note that it matters if a substantial chunk of the selectorate does not like the party’s nominee.
I would note that both the AP story that I quoted above and NPR this morning, just let Trump’s assertion of unity go by utterly unchallenged.
*Indeed, many OTB readers do the same thing.
