Former Obama strategist and current podcaster Dan Pfeiffer asks, “Is Trump Cracking Under the Pressure of the Election?“
Donald Trump made it through the Republican primary largely unscathed. He never had to get on a debate stage or adopt a position to outflank a rival. Primaries are usually messy, and the winners often emerge battered, bruised, and broken. Trump floated above the process, and his rivals’ impotence made him look strong by comparison.
The dynamic was interesting. Trump used his MAGA schtick to lock down his base without catching the attention of the broader electorate. He mostly communicated through MAGA-friendly media; so even when he made a mistake, it never traveled outside the MAGA media bubble. There was a sense that Trump had become a better, more disciplined candidate than in his two prior campaigns. Trump did show up to big moments like that CNN town hall better prepared and with a semblance of a strategy. On the campaign trail, he followed the script a little more and didn’t step on his message of the day. In other words, he behaved more like a typical candidate and less like a raving lunatic driven by an underlying urge to sabotage himself.
These small improvements in his performance were worrisome.
However, since the General Election kicked off almost two weeks ago, Trump has returned to his old, chaotic, self-destructive ways. After securing the delegates as the presumptive nominee, Trump has made critical errors daily. He can’t seem to stop saying insane, deeply politically damaging stuff.
This is followed by a bulleted, hyperlinked laundry list of insane stuff that OTB readers have likely seen and probably isn’t actually all that politically damaging given Trump’s history.
Pfeiffer continues,
Is the old Trump back? Did the ivermectin wear off? Or is he cracking under the pressure and scrutiny of a general election?
Well, Trump didn’t change. He is just as unhinged as ever, but now people are paying more attention. Trump is cracking under the intense scrutiny of the General Election.
Longtime progressive journalist Brian Beutler actually goes further, arguing “Donald Trump Isn’t Running A Presidential Campaign.”
Every now and again it’s fun to hold the unfiltered public comments of normal politicians up against the Donald Trump’s ravings on social media. “Merry Christmas” vs “Haters and Losers” etc.
If you try that this week, you’ll find Trump completely unmoored from the calendar or any national circumstance. No good tidings for St. Patrick’s Day, no particular interest in federal policy. Trump’s mind has been neatly divided between his hallmark agitprop and unrelenting obsession with evading the nearly half-billion fine he owes the state of New York for serial business fraud.
When you pan out even further it becomes clear: Trump is scarcely running a presidential campaign. He might become president in spite of this, but his efforts are overwhelmingly fixed on evading justice or mooting judgments he’s already lost by any means necessary. He’d ideally like to prevail in these efforts before the election, but the task will become much easier if he’s able to win or steal the presidency despite the legal peril.
Granting that there’s some motivated reasoning going on here, they’re not wrong that Trump has seemed erratic and unfocused even by his standards. Then again, he was pretty damned erratic and unfocused in 2016 and managed to win the damn thing. Indeed, he didn’t run anything resembling a normal campaign then, either.
Like it or not—and I decidedly don’t—Trump saying outrageous, nasty, crazy things has long since become part of his brand. Supporters seem to actually like it and goodly number of Republicans who don’t like it have been willing to look past it, seeing Democratic policies as the greater evil.
I would like to see the bubble burst this time. But I’m going to need to see his standing in the polls drop before getting to excited about the prospect.
