Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Peace, for a time.

Yesterday afternoon, President Biden announced a deal had been brokered to end the war in Lebanon.

Today, I have some good news to report from the Middle East.  I just spoke with the prime minister of Israel and Lebanon, and I’m pleased to announce that their governments have accepted the United States’ proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. 

And I want to thank President Macron of France for his partnership in reaching this moment. 

For nearly 14 months, a deadly conflict raged across the border that separates Israel and Lebanon — a conflict that began the day after the October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel.  Hours later, at 2:00 a.m. in the morning, Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations backed by Iran attacked Israel in support of Hamas.  

Let’s be clear: Israel did not launch this war.  The Lebanese people did not seek that war either, nor did the United States. 

Over the past year, including in the days immediately ta- — following October the 7th, I directed the U.S. military to flow assets and capabilities into the region, including aircraft carriers, fighter squadrons, and sophisticated air defense battery to defend Israel and deter our common enemy at critical moments.  

Since the war with Hezbollah began, over 70,000 Israelis have been forced to live in refugee — li- — live as refugees in their own country, helplessly watching their homes, their businesses, their communities as they were bombarded and destroyed.  And over 300,000 Lebanese people have also been forced to live as refugees in their own country in a war imposed on them by Hezbollah. 

All told, this has been the deadliest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in decades.  

How many of Hezbollah’s senior leaders are dead, including its longtime leader Nasrallah?  And Israel has — and Israel has destroyed Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon as well, including miles of sophisticated tunnels, which were prepared for an October 7th-style terrorist attack in northern Israel.  

But lasting security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield.  And that’s why I’ve directed my team to work with the governments of Israel and Lebanon to forge a ceasefire to bring the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to a close.

Under the deal reached today, effective at 4:00 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end — will end.  This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. 

What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — will — I emphasize — will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again. 

Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese Army and the State Security Forces will deploy and take control of their own territory once again.  Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt. 

And over the next 60 days, Israel will gradually withdraw its remaining forces and civilians — civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities and begin to rebuild their homes, their schools, their farms, their businesses, and their very lives. 

We’re determined this conflict will not be just another cycle of violence.  And so, the United States, with the full support of France and our other allies, has pledged to work with Israel and Lebanon to ensure that these arra- — this — this arrangement is fully implemented — the agreement totally implemented. 

You know, there will be no U.S. troops deployed in southern Lebanon.  This is consistent with my commitment to the American people to not put U.S. troops in combat in this conflict. 

Instead, we, along with France and others, will provide the necessary assistance to make sure this deal is implemented fully and effectively.  

Let us — let me be clear: If Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defense consistent with international law, just like any country when facing a terrorist group pledged to that country’s destruction. 

Note that the above is the official White House transcription.

AP‘s Adam Geller (“What to know about the ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah“):

Under the deal, thousands of Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers are to deploy to the region south of the Litani River. An international panel lead by the U.S. would monitor compliance by all sides. Biden said the deal “was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”

Israel has demanded the right to act should Hezbollah violate its obligations, but Lebanese officials rejected writing that into the proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the military would strike Hezbollah if the U.N. peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, does not enforce the deal.

Hezbollah indicated it would give the ceasefire pact a chance, but one of the group’s leaders said the group’s support for the deal hinged on clarity that Israel would not renew its attacks.

“After reviewing the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is a match between what we stated and what was agreed upon by the Lebanese officials,” Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, told the Qatari satellite news network Al Jazeera.

“We want an end to the aggression, of course, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the state” of Lebanon, he said.

[…]

After months of cross-border bombings, Israel can claim major victories, including the killing of Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, most of his senior commanders and the destruction of extensive militant infrastructure.

A complex attack in September involving the explosion of hundreds of walkie-talkies and pagers used by Hezbollah was widely attributed to Israel, signaling a remarkable penetration of the militant group.

The damage inflicted on Hezbollah has hit not only in its ranks, but the reputation it built by fighting Israel to a stalemate in the 2006 war. Still, its fighters managed to put up heavy resistance on the ground, slowing Israel’s advance while continuing to fire scores of rockets, missiles and drones across the border each day.

The ceasefire offers relief to both sides, giving Israel’s overstretched army a break and allowing Hezbollah leaders to tout the group’s effectiveness in holding their ground despite Israel’s massive advantage in weaponry. But the group is likely to face a reckoning, with many Lebanese accusing it of tying their country’s fate to Gaza’s at the service of key ally Iran, inflicting great damage on a Lebanese economy that was already in grave condition.

WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen analyzes “The Impossible Mission to Enforce an Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire.”

For nearly two decades, thousands of United Nations peacekeepers have been helpless to stop the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah from rearming along Israel’s border since the two sides’ previous war.

Now that Israel and Hezbollah have come to a cease-fire ending a year of fighting, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or Unifil, is again at the center of efforts to keep the peace but still lacks the capability to enforce a buffer zone between the parties, analysts said.

The deal agreed to on Tuesday includes a 60-day implementation period to allow the Israeli military to withdraw and for the Lebanese military to secure the border area and prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing an armed presence there, according to Lebanese officials. An international committee including U.N. peacekeepers would monitor compliance, they said.

But neither the Lebanese military nor U.N. forces could do much to keep Hezbollah from building up fighting positions in southern Lebanon and firing rockets across the border, while Israel responded with military overflights and occasional live fire. The culmination was a year of fighting that began after another Iran-backed militant group, Hamas, attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, from the Gaza Strip. The U.N. peacekeepers have mostly sheltered in their bases after repeatedly coming under fire from both sides.

As a result, Israel insists on the freedom to strike at Hezbollah even after a cease-fire if it believes the U.S.-designated terrorist group poses a threat. An Israeli official said Israel would ensure its own safety.

“We’re not talking about the dissolution of Unifil but also won’t place the future security of northern Israel in Unifil’s hand,” the official said. “We’re not going back to Oct. 6.”

Unifil has had what its defenders say was an impossible mandate since 1978, when Israel invaded Lebanon after a Palestinian militant attack on a bus in central Israel, killing 38 civilians, including 13 children. Unifil’s job was to monitor the Israeli military’s withdrawal from Lebanon and to help the Lebanese government maintain security in the country’s restive south.

But by 1982, Israel was back fighting in Lebanon. After an Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, Unifil’s job included monitoring Hezbollah’s activities in southern Lebanon and aiding the Lebanese military’s efforts under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.

Unifil reports possible violations to the Lebanese army and Israel, which are responsible for correcting the behavior, and to the U.N. secretary-general who relays the findings regularly to the Security Council. Lebanon’s army, however, is underfunded and outgunned by Iran-backed Hezbollah, and there is little in the resolution to force either party into line.

Resolution 1701 was almost immediately violated, and Unifil’s task has grown more difficult over the years. Unifil—which at times conducted some 10,000 patrols a month—increasingly complained that its peacekeepers were prevented from moving around freely and inspecting suspicious locations. It is prevented from entering private property and detaining civilians without permission from Lebanese authorities.

Peacekeepers have complained over the years about an increasingly hostile environment and intimidation by Hezbollah and people in the south, who occasionally accuse them of spying for Israel and attack them.

As the report documents, there have been numerous resurgences of the conflict since. There’s little reason to hope there won’t be another. But there have been frequent stretches of a decade of more of relative peace in between; that’s not nothing.

Biden expressed optimism in his speech that this agreement will set the tone for one ending the war in Gaza.

And just as the Lebanese people deserve a future of security and prosperity, so do the people of Gaza.  They too deserve an end to the fighting and displacement. 

The people of Gaza have been through hell.  Their word — their world is absolutely shattered.  Far too many civilians in Gaza have suffered far too much.  And Hamas has refused, for months and months, to negotiate a good-faith ceasefire and a hostage deal.  

And so, now Hamas has a choice to make.  Their only way out is to release the hostages, including American citizens which they hold, and, in the process, bring an end to the fighting, which would make possible a surge of humanitarian li- — relief.  

Over the coming days, the United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza with the hostages released and the end to the war without Hamas in power — that it becomes possible.  

As for the broader Middle East region, today’s announcement brings us closer to realizing the affirmative agenda that I’ve been pushing forward during my entire presidency: a vision for the future of the Middle East where it’s at peace and prosperous and integrated across borders; a future where Palestinians have a state of their own, one that fulfills its people’s legitimate aspirations and one that cannot threaten Israel or harbor terrorist groups with backing from Iran; a future where Israelis and Palestinians enjoy equal measures of security, prosperity, and — yes — dignity. 

To that end, the United States remains prepared to conclude a set of historic deals with Saudi Arabia to include a security pact and economic assurances together with a credible pathway for establishing a Palestinian state and the full — the full normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel — a desire they both have. 

I believe this agenda remains possible.  And in my remaining time in office, I will work tirelessly to advance this vision of — for an integrated, secure, and prosperous region, all of which — all of which strengthens America’s national security.  

Which led to a rather testy exchange in the very short Q&A:

Q    Mr. President, will you get a ceasefire in Gaza before leaving office? 

THE PRESIDENT:  You ask me how I get a ceasefire in — I think so.  I’m hoping.  I’m praying.

Q    How is this push any different from the previous ones?

THE PRESIDENT:  If you don’t see that, you shouldn’t be reporting.  It’s a lot different.

NYT Jerusalem bureau chief Patrick Kingsley (“Will Lebanon Deal Break Gaza Deadlock? Experts Doubt It“):

Buoyant after helping to forge a cease-fire in Lebanon, President Biden has declared that the deal could build momentum toward a similar breakthrough in Gaza.

But that assessment is premature, analysts said on Wednesday, because Israel and Hamas are much further from a deal in Gaza than Israel and Hezbollah were in Lebanon.

The truce in Lebanon was possible in part because Hezbollah — weakened by months of assassinations and battlefield losses — had lost its leverage at the negotiating table. On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could afford to compromise because a deal in Lebanon would not significantly weaken his grip on power at home.

A breakthrough in Gaza is harder to achieve because Hamas still holds roughly 100 hostages, a significant trump card that allows the Palestinian group to maintain its hard-line negotiating position. Secondly, Mr. Netanyahu cannot compromise with Hamas because doing so might collapse his ruling coalition, forcing early elections.

Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies, many of whom hope to settle Gaza with Jewish civilians after the war, have threatened to abandon his alliance if the conflict there ends without Hamas’s complete defeat. When it came to Lebanon, Mr. Netanyahu was under less domestic pressure to deliver a knockout blow to Hezbollah, even if many Israelis remained deeply concerned about the long-term threat of the group.

“The Lebanon deal happened because Netanyahu wanted it and Hezbollah needed it — and because it wasn’t a deal breaker for Netanyahu’s coalition,” said Aaron David Miller, an American analyst and former negotiator in previous Mideast peace talks. “The Gaza deal is different,” he said.

Indeed, the notion that the two conflicts are linked is rather odd. The only real connection is that Hezbollah was dividing Israeli military attention, thus indirectly supporting Hamas. While this removal does indeed weaken Hamas’ position, it strengthens Israel’s by the same measure.

In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu suggested that Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the fight might isolate its ally Hamas and force the group to also back down.

“Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a recorded speech. “With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.”

But Palestinian analysts said that Hamas, having already weathered many serious setbacks over the past year, was unlikely to suddenly give up the hostages or relinquish power in Gaza. Though Hamas’s leadership has been decimated and ordinary Gazans yearn for an end to the suffering, the group’s remaining leaders are holding out for a deal that would allow the group to survive the war intact.

To that end, Hamas is expected to continue to push for an arrangement in which Israel permanently withdraws from Gaza, allowing the group to reestablish full control in the enclave.

“I really do not think the cease-fire in Lebanon will have any impact on Gaza,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist displaced by the war. “There is no light at the end of the black tunnel for Gaza.”

I strongly suspect he’s right.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is a Professor of Security Studies. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Rob1 says:

    The agenda of Iran and Hezbollah remain the same, as does the agenda of Netanyahu’s cohort. Hence the implied tenuousness in the “cease” part of ceasefire.

    In this interminable conflict, the elements of peace remain elusive, and ceasefires remain fragile.

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  2. Michael Reynolds says:

    Hezbollah (and Iran) lost, Israel won. This is Hezbollah accepting that reality, at least for a while. Hamas could do the same, it could admit it has lost, hand over any surviving hostages and stop firing missiles into Israel. The Gaza war can end tomorrow.

    I don’t have the source, sorry, but apparently there’s a plan, already under way, to chop Gaza into four or five pieces, defined by wide arteries (some 100 meters across) bulldozed through so that the IDF can react quickly to any emergence from the tunnels.

    Hezbollah decided to live to fight another day. Hamas is fighting to the last Gazan. For people who cheer on Hamas’ intransigence, who do you think is better off this morning? The population of Southern Lebanon or the population of Gaza?

    There is, I suppose, the possibility that Gazans will see that it is possible to survive, and force Hamas’ hand.

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  3. DK says:

    @Rob1:

    In this interminable conflict, the elements of peace remain elusive, and ceasefires remain fragile.

    It may last a few years. But the religious fanatics in Israel and amongst Israel’s neighbors will be at it again, sooner or later. Holy warriors gonna holy war. I wouldn’t be surprised if most Americans have stopped caring.

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  4. Rob1 says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    And then there’s this:

    Jared Kushner says Gaza’s ‘waterfront property could be very valuable’

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/jared-kushner-gaza-waterfront-property-israel-negev

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  5. Rob1 says:

    @DK:

    As a long time observer of Middle East affairs, I’ve sensed that Americans in general have never cared, just as long as oil flows

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  6. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Rob1:
    The average American couldn’t find Israel on a map. Then again, they couldn’t find France. Or Canada. All foreign policy stories have to be squeezed into a good guys vs. bad guys frame, with no room for nuance, no awareness of history, and always with a very short attention span.

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  7. Sleeping Dog says:

    Bibi held out on an agreement just long enough to see if trump would return to power.

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  8. Mister Bluster says:

    @DK:..Holy warriors gonna holy war.

    Burn the Holy Books. All of them. They are the source of the apologia for the slaughter.

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  9. Kathy says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Hezbollah (and Iran) lost, Israel won.

    I see it more as Iran and Proxy dropped the ball, and Israel returned it for a touchdown. But it’s the 47th out of 10 to the 100th quarter, and there’s a lot of game to play before anyone can declare themselves the winner.

    @Mister Bluster:

    Imagine there’s no countries
    It isn’t hard to do
    Nothing to kill or die for
    And no religion, too

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  10. just nutha says:

    @Sleeping Dog: Yeah, this. (And I haven’t heard cheering for Palestinian intransigence here, but I have heard some “how is Israel supposed to make peace with…” and the ever popular “f*** them.”)

    ETA: And it’s comforting to see that we’re not always opposed to book burning.

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  11. Slugger says:

    Hezbollah has always branded itself as the guys who have not been beaten by the IDF and who successfully resisted Israel. Looking at Al Jazeera it appears that this deal is a defeat for this idea and allows Israel to bring its full weight to bear on Gaza. The Tehran Times is spinning this as a Hez victory. A situation where the shooting stops and both sides declare victory might be the best possible outcome.

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  12. Mister Bluster says:

    @just nutha:..
    I’m not opposed to prayer in Public Schools either as long as I get to write the prayer.

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  13. Jay L Gischer says:

    @Mister Bluster: So. I come from a pacifistic religious tradition. A Christian one. The notion of holy war comes from warriors, not from holy books. (To be fair, there is a fair bit of cheerleading for the warrior heros of the Israelites in the OT).

    Holy warriors seek divine/moral/social sanction for what they do. They believe in might makes right, but they want plausible deniability. If peace and love were to break out, they would have no role at all in governing (much like what happened to Winston Churchill after VE Day).

    So if you burn the holy books, they will just write new ones. The books are not the issue.

    I am writing this less to scold you and more to point to the actual problem, which we can identify and address.

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  14. Jay L Gischer says:

    [Double post deleted]

  15. JohnSF says:

    Well, at least a bit of good news, for a change.
    Firstly, that the people of southern Lebanon and northern Israel may be able to return home without fear of being bombarded in their beds.
    Secondly, that Iran (and more particularly the IRG) have been utterly humiliated.
    There may be interesting political consequences of this both in Lebanon and Iran.

    If the incoming administration had any sense (hah!) this would be the ideal time for a consensus US position on trying for a Gaza deal.
    As Hamas must now be aware that the Iranian alliance is not going to rescue them.

    And possibly for issuing a final warning to the Houthis to pull their necks in, or get them chopped off.

    That would leave the entire IRG strategy in collapse; in turn opening the possibility for a more realistic policy in Tehran.

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  16. just nutha says:

    @Mister Bluster: That’s interesting. I am, and always have been, even when I was young. I grew up in a Christian spiritual community that was suspicious and skeptical about letting others tell one how or what to pray. We didn’t even recite the Lord’s Prayer in our meetings.

    Good to know that you’re a classic American: not above oppression as long as you’re the oppressor.

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  17. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Kathy:
    It’s oddly analogous to Colonists vs. Indians. For the first century or so after the first English, French and Spanish colonies, things were much more equal than many imagine. The Iroquois, for example, were not to be fucked with, so colonists generally tried to get along. There was a lot of trade between Indians and Colonists and in effect the colonies were just rival tribes, not in any kind of dominant position. Both sides profited. And there was an endless series of wars – Indians vs. Colonists, Indians vs. Indians sometimes with Colonists involved.

    But if you looked at a time lapse map what you’d see is Indian lands slowly being eaten away. And then, not so slowly. The Colonist’s portion never shrank, and the Indian portion never expanded. Zoom out of Israel (the colonists) and Arabs (including but not limited to Palestinians) and what you see is year by year the Arabs lose ground. The movement is always in one direction, in terms of land, in terms of wealth and power.

    Israel today is far more powerful relative to the Arabs than it was in 1948, or 1967, or 1973, or 1982. Every time war breaks out, Israel wins. And during the non-peace, Israel still wins. The Arabs (and the West) became mesmerized by the fact that Israel is surrounded by vastly larger populations. They saw a small, isolated colony and imagined that Arab victory was inevitable. And that was a fatal assumption. Iran has tried to do what Egypt and Syria failed to do, and now it, too, is humiliated and defeated.

    Diplomacy and compromise between Arabs and Israel would have been the smart move, but the Arabs have always rejected three quarter of a loaf, and half a loaf, and a quarter of a loaf. And now they’re clutching handfuls of crumbs. Throughout it all there have been many in the West cheering Arab intransigence, rather like spectators watching a man threatening to jump off a skyscraper and yelling, ‘jump!’

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  18. just nutha says:

    @JohnSF: We have an American consensus available: The Gazans can surrender and leave and anyone who disagrees can GFT. It’s the same consensus as it always has been. We can call it “The Huckabee Consensus” in honor of the new Ambassador to Israel.

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  19. Michael Reynolds says:

    @just nutha:
    No, ‘Gazans’ don’t need to surrender or leave; Hamas does.

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  20. Mister Bluster says:

    @Jay L Gischer:..Holy Books

    My sentiment for the eradication of Holy Books developed from watching a TV program back in the 1980s. It was a daytime weekend production that I believe was hosted by Linda Ellerbee. She featured 8 or 10 teenagers (13-19?) some who were Israeli and the others were Palestinian.
    The dialogue started like this:
    A boy child said: “It says in our Holy Book that God gave us this land thousands of years ago and we must fight to defend it!”
    Then a girl child said: “Our Holy Book says that thousands 0f years ago God gave us this land and
    we must fight to defend it!”
    Needless to say they were talking about the same parcel of dirt.
    As I stated this was 40 years ago. I often wonder where those children, now in their 50s, are today.
    As toxic as the texts can be I would settle for deep geological disposal as proposed for the storage of some radioactive waste.

  21. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Mister Bluster:
    Akin to my suggestion (made in jest, obviously) that we nuke Jerusalem, Mecca and the Vatican (one MOAB would actually do for the Vatican.)

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  22. Mister Bluster says:

    @just nutha:..as long as I get to write the prayer.

    This is how I respond to citizens who tell me that there should be prayer in public schools led by agents of the state. You know, school teachers. I say this to try to get them to think about how their prayer is no better or more righteous my prayer.
    They never get it.

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  23. Mister Bluster says:

    @Michael Reynolds:..(made in jest, obviously)

    The fact that you have to state this Trigger Warning indicates to me that some readers of these posts take other commenters here far too seriously.

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  24. Michael Reynolds says:

    @Mister Bluster:
    I’ve long believed that people without a sense of humor should identify themselves in advance. It would save so much misunderstanding.

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  25. Just nutha ignint cracker says:

    @Mister Bluster: Of course they don’t. Americans don’t object to oppression as long as they are the oppressors. Substitution of yourself as the oppressor won’t make any sense. Why should you get to be the oppressor?

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  26. JohnSF says:

    @just nutha:

    “…an American consensus available: The Gazans can surrender and leave and anyone who disagrees can GFT. It’s the same consensus as it always has been.”

    I suspect if that was, in fact, the American consensus, and, more importantly still, that of the Israelis, Gaza, and perhaps the West Bank also, would have ceased to be an issue more than half a century since.
    It would have probably have been relatively easy for Israel to have decanted the population of Gaza into Sinai at the end of the Six Day War.
    Or during the fifteen years that Israel controlled Sinai.
    They never attempted to do so.
    And, for his own reasons, Sharon eventually removed the settlers from Gaza.

    The problem is, there neither has been, nor is there, a consensus in Israel on how to resolve the matter.
    That leaves policy a matter of Israeli political contention.
    And unfortunately, the US has increasingly itself come to a position of absolute support for Israel in general, and Likud in particular, becoming a token of allegiance on the Republican/Evangelical right.
    (An attitude which I suspect rather bemuses, or even amuses, Likudniks, and the Israeli “religious right”, in private.)

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  27. wr says:

    @Michael Reynolds: ” For people who cheer on Hamas’ intransigence, who do you think is better off this morning?”

    Do you really believe that anyone here is cheering on Hamas’ intransigence? I don’t think I’ve ever read a single pro-Hamas comment on this site. I have read many expressing horror or sympathy over the plight of the Palestinian civilians, but despite what some on the right insist that is neither anti-semitic nor pro-Hamas.

    The world would be better if all of Hamas were gone forever. I remain unconvinced that slaughtering thousands of civilians can bring us to the elimination of the Hamas ideology, but I would be happy to be proved wrong.

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  28. Rob1 says:

    @Mister Bluster:

    I’m not opposed to prayer in Public Schools either as long as I get to write the prayer.

    And/or write the critique of the prayer just to keep things honest for the kiddos.

  29. Bill Jempty says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    The average American couldn’t find Israel on a map. Then again, they couldn’t find France. Or Canada.

    Or Wyoming.

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  30. JohnSF says:

    @Michael Reynolds:
    The only thing the Palestinians have been less fortunate in having than in their enemies have been in their “friends”.

    Ironically, for the “Israel is a Western colonial project” line of argument, the second closest Israel really got to an existential peril was when they came close to provoking the Brits to stomp on them.
    (The first order one being 1947/48, of course)
    The assassination of Lord Moyne in Cairo in 1944 burnt up a lot of good will.

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  31. just nutha says:

    @JohnSF: In the absence of a two-state solution, on which the American left vacillates (the current position appears to be “nice to wish for but impossible”*), the policy, in practice, becomes the Huckabee vision. For what it’s worth, I will agree with your basic proposition in your opening.

    Then again, I’ve owned that said proposition represents a war crime and that, if left in charge, I’m not concerned about being called a war criminal.

    *We appear to currently be in the how can you expect Israel to negotiate with… phase again and moving to Israel has no reason/responsibility to in the age of Huck. At which point the American left may shift to Israel must negotiate; it’s the only right choice, or it may not. I think it depends on how noisy Huck becomes.

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  32. Mister Bluster says:

    @Mister Bluster:..no better or more righteous than my prayer.

    Only took 8 hours to see that error.
    Too bad the EDIT timer doesn’t last that long.

  33. Michael Reynolds says:

    @wr:
    Here’s how it progressed. Early days: Hamas is awful, but Israel is over-reacting. That became sure, Hamas is bad, but Israel is worse. And then we stopped even getting the obligatory Hamas condemnations, and it all became about Israel. And on the several occasions I pointed out that Hamas could end this any time it likes, the response was not, ‘yeah, that’s true,’ it was, ‘why should they?’ Add in the bullshit charges of genocide.

    So, yes, there are people cheering for Hamas to keep up their brave underdog fight and fight to the last Gazan so we can all join hands and condemn Israel. The college kids waved Hamas flags, and chanted Hamas slogans, FFS, oblivious to the fact that Hamas deliberately targeted people just like them in their massacre, and if Hamas actually won they would have zero tolerance for all those students. They were classic ‘useful idiots.’

    Incidentally you can judge the depth of their commitment by the fact that it did not survive into the next semester.

    My position, repeated ad nauseam, was: 1) There is no solution at present, 2) Except for solutions we really don’t want to see. 3) Throwing around the word genocide is anti-Semitic propaganda, and 4) That the US cutting off smart weapons would doom more Gazans than it would save because Bibi would march them into the Sinai, and 5) There was never going to be a West Bank state because if there were an attempt it would devolve instantly into a civil war, and none of the powers in the region actually want a 2 state solution.

    And I was right on every point. But I was surprised by just how far the power balance had swung in Israel’s favor. They beat Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, simultaneously. And now the Israelis don’t feel the need to do a single damn thing for Palestinians. So once again, the Arabs have fucked themselves.

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  34. JohnSF says:

    First major fallout of the collapse of Iranian credibility?
    Or unrelated?
    HTS (Turkish backed) Syrian rebels advancing on Aleppo.
    They appear to have cut the the main Alepp-Damascus road at Saraqid, and are within 6 miles of the city itself.
    Reports of a considerable number of Russians being killed.

    More: Turkish sources now stating it has supported the operation in response to recent Syrian and Russian air attacks in Idlib, with consequent refugee movement toward the Turkish border.

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