In the comment section of my post from yesterday about North Carolina’s ongoing attempt to squeeze an additional Republican seat out of its House delegation came the question as to why Democrats aren’t fighting back hard enough in the redistricting wars.
Let me note two constraints. The first is how many states have Democratic trifectas (i.e., control of both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship). Here’s a map via Ballotpedia.
That’s 15 states out of 50, which is a limiting factor to begin with. Then there are two other prominent factors. Seven of 15 states have zero Republican members of Congress, meaning only eight even have a theoretical move.
Of those eight remaining, five have redistricting commissions, meaning the issue is not simply one of the state legislature drawing new maps. There are, therefore, only three states (Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon) wherein it is at least theoretically possible to have the legislature act in a way similar to what we saw in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina.
Here’s the breakdown.
| D | R | Commission | |
| California | 46 | 8 | Y |
| Colorado | 4 | 4 | Y |
| Connecticut | 5 | 0 | |
| Delaware | 1 | 0 | |
| Hawaii | 2 | 0 | Y |
| Illinois | 13 | 4 | |
| Maine | 2 | 0 | |
| Maryland | 7 | 1 | |
| Massachusetts | 9 | 0 | |
| New Jersey | 8 | 4 | Y |
| New Mexico | 3 | 0 | |
| New York | 18 | 8 | Y |
| Oregon | 4 | 2 | |
| Rhode Island | 2 | 0 | |
| Washington | 6 | 4 | Y |
Note that California is having to go to a ballot measure to get permission to allow the legislature to redraw lines in response to Texas. I will confess I do not know what the mechanisms would be in the other commission states to wrest control from them. It might be simple legislation, it might be something more onerous. I also do not know the politics of this topic in those states.
Of the three states with the clearest pathway here, Illinois has 4 GOP districts, Maryland 1, and Oregon 2 (based on 2024 outcomes). There is not a lot to work with here.
It does seem relevant that two of these states, Oregon and Illinois, are currently dealing with National Guard deployments and other federal law enforcement overreach. That might create political will to engage on the redistricting front.
I would add that I do not even know what the true prospects are to create additional Democratic districts in these states, although given the sophistication of the software at the disposal of willing politicians, one suspects that there are seats that could be squeezed out.
I will stress again, all of this is bad for representative democracy, but passive reliance on principles is not a prudent political move at the moment.
To address two other questions from that post.
- Even though NC does not have a Republican trifecta, its governor lacks the ability to veto district maps. See The News and Observer: NC governor can’t veto a redistricting map. Here’s the unlikely person to blame.
- Yes, it is possible that some of these new maps will backfire by creating “dummymanders.” It seems worth noting that the sophistication of the software used makes this less likely (but much will depend on the national mood a year from now).
