Marco Rubio Next Secretary of State

Trump's foreign policy team is taking shape.

NYT (“Trump Expected to Name Marco Rubio as Secretary of State“):

President-elect Donald J. Trump is expected to name Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as his secretary of state, three people familiar with his thinking said on Monday, as Mr. Trump moves rapidly to fill out his foreign policy and national security team.

Mr. Trump could still change his mind at the last minute, the people said, but appeared to have settled on Mr. Rubio, whom he also considered when choosing his running mate this year.

Mr. Rubio was elected to the Senate in 2010, and has staked out a position as a foreign policy hawk, taking hard lines on China, Iran, Venezuela and Cuba in particular.

He initially found himself at odds with those Republicans who were more skeptical about interventions abroad, but he has also echoed Mr. Trump more recently on issues like Russia’s war against Ukraine, saying that the conflict has reached a stalemate and “needs to be brought to a conclusion.”

Despite speaking in hard-line terms about Russia in the past, Mr. Rubio would likely go along with Mr. Trump’s expected plans to press Ukraine to find a way to come to a settlement with Russia and remain outside of NATO. It is unclear whether the leaders of Ukraine or Russia would be prepared to enter into talks at Mr. Trump’s urging.

Mr. Rubio has been among the most outspoken senators on the need for the United States to be more aggressive on China. He has adopted positions that later became more mainstream in both parties. For example, while serving in Congress during the first Trump administration, he began advocating industrial policy meant to help the United States better compete with China’s state-directed economy.

Mr. Rubio also served as a co-chairman of the bipartisan Congressional-Executive Commission on China, which has aimed to craft aggressive policy on China, especially in trying to address human rights abuses there. In 2020, Mr. Rubio sponsored a bill that tried to prevent the import of Chinese goods made with the use of forced labor by China’s ethnic Uyghur minority. President Biden signed it into law the next year.

While I certainly didn’t have “Little Marco” Rubio, who was long at odds with Trump before becoming a leading sycophant, on my radar screen for the post, he’s well qualified—certainly more so than Rex Tillerson or Mike Pompeo, who served in the post in the first administration. He’s been in the Senate for fourteen years and serves on both the Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees; he’s the ranking Republican on the latter.

Multiple reputable sources are reporting that Rubio is the selection. He’ll easily be confirmed by his colleagues.

The notion that the Secretary of State sets his own policy agenda is rather silly. Of course President Trump will be the ultimate decider. But Rubio’s instincts are perfectly reasonable and, indeed, align with the Biden administration’s policy with regard to key adversaries. The degree to which Trump will actually listen to him remains to be seen.

In terms of domestic politics, Rubio was just re-elected in 2022. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would appoint a replacement, who would presumably have a leg up in a 2026 special election to serve the final two years of the term. There is plenty of speculation as to who DeSantis might appoint. Regardless, the seat will remain in Republican hands at least through he midterms.

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James Joyner
About James Joyner
James Joyner is Professor of Security Studies. He's a former Army officer and Desert Storm veteran. Views expressed here are his own. Follow James on Twitter @DrJJoyner.

Comments

  1. Bill Jempty says:

    DeSantis could appoint himself and avoid the mistake Charlie Crist made in 2009 when Mel Martinez resigned. Crist appointed a placeholder to the seat, then ran for the office in 2010, only to lose the Republican primary to…..Rubio.

    As for Rubio as secretary of state, his brainpower has not been impressive if you remember at all his performance in the 2016 Republican debates.

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  2. James Joyner says:

    @Bill Jempty: He can’t technically appoint himself but there is speculation that he could resign with the understanding that his successor appoints him. Honestly, I think Senator is a huge step down from Governor of a major state.

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  3. Bill Jempty says:

    @James Joyner:

    Honestly, I think Senator is a huge step down from Governor of a major state.

    Two Florida Governors since 1986 have gone from being Governor to Senator. Bob Graham and Rick Scott. As mentioned above, Charlie Crist tried and failed.

    Lawton Chiles did the reverse. He retired from the Senate in 1988 and two years later successfully ran for Governor. He defeated Congressman Bill Nelson in the Democratic primary. 10 years later Nelson was elected to the Senate.

    Further back, Jack Eckerd of Eckerd Drugs, twice ran for Governor and once for the Senate in the 1970s. Always as a Republican and always ending in defeat.

    I could mention Buddy Mckay too. He ran twice unsuccessfully for the Senate and once for Governor and lost each time (80,88, and 98). McKay did end up Governor for a short time. He was Lt Governor when Chiles died in office, Dec 1998, a few weeks before Jeb Bush took office.

    With the exception of Eckerd and Scott, I’ve voted for everyone I’ve mentioned.

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  4. Jen says:

    Maybe it’s just the early picks, but these selections seem to lean heavily to sitting MOC. Not sure if that matters, but it does seem atypical–is it?

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  5. wr says:

    @James Joyner: ” Honestly, I think Senator is a huge step down from Governor of a major state.”

    In general I agree — but isn’t DeSantis term limited? If it’s a choice between two more years as governor — followed, no doubt, by a long career on the wingnut welfare circuit — or possibly decades in the Senate, I don’t think the choice is quite as clear cut.

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  6. charontwo says:

    If I recall correctly what I have read re Rubio, he is a bit of a religious nut and also a hawk pro-Israel.

    Nice work, voters punishing Harris/Biden over Gaza.

    ETA: For people thinking their is political benefit for such punishing, perhaps recall how much stature and influence Ralph Nader had subsequent to 2000.

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  7. SC_Birdflyte says:

    I think Marco may come to regret being picked. As we know, Trump is notoriously prone to punishing any dissent among his closest advisers. Sooner or later, Marco may find that he has traded a safe Senate seat for being roasted by a Trump tantrum.

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  8. Charley in Cleveland says:

    Trump loves pols that he emasculates who then crawl back to him. See, e.g., Cruz, Rubio, Graham. One thing Trump has shown is that when it comes to a choice of kissing his ass or standing on pride and principle, Republicans will kiss his ass every time. Congrats, Little Marco. Go shake hands with JD.

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  9. Not the IT Dept. says:

    @James Joyner: Honestly, I think Senator is a huge step down from Governor of a major state.

    Personally, I think being a Trump lackey is a huge step down from being dogcatcher in any state.

    Rubio traded a guaranteed salary and benefits to accepting a job that has to monitor Trump’s whims 24/7. And since most of MAGA-GOP think he’s a wimp, I’m betting Trump will fire him the minute he wants to look tough on some issue in front of the MAGA-GOP types. He’ll blame a policy screw-up on Rubio and then move in to take charge in a blaze of headlines.

    I’m betting Rubio won’t be there by next Thanksgiving. He might actually be the turkey on the platter at the White House next year.

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  10. James Joyner says:

    @Jen: Senate is a perennial proving ground for cabinet secretaries, with House members frequently tabbed for less desirable posts. It’s unusual, if not unprecedented, as a source for UN Ambassador and National Security Advisor.

    @wr: Yes, that’s a fair point.

    @SC_Birdflyte: @Not the IT Dept.: Rubio doesn’t strike me as one of those guys who’s going to be a Senate lifer. I don’t think he enjoys that grind enough. A stint as Secretary of State could well burnish his 2028 credentials.

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  11. Not the IT Dept. says:

    @James Joyner: A stint as Secretary of State could well burnish his 2028 credentials.

    I think Vance will have some opinions about that, and since he’s probably going to be the sitting president by mid-2026, those opinions will – if you’ll pardon the expression – trump any of Rubio’s ambitions. “Little Marco” as a presidential candidate? Please. Dogcatcher is at least a dignified profession.

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  12. This is a conventional pick, so a relief in that regard.

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  13. James Joyner says:

    @Not the IT Dept.: Vance clearly has the inside track but none of the likely contenders has Trump’s carnival barker charisma. Regardless, Rubio clearly aspires to the White House, not the Majority Leader post.

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  14. James Joyner says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: Yup. Frustrating as it is to have to treat Trump as a “normal” President, I don’t really know what else to do at this point but to judge him on his appointments and, ultimately, his policies.

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  15. Bill Jempty says:

    @James Joyner:

    Senate is a perennial proving ground for cabinet secretaries, with House members frequently tabbed for less desirable posts. It’s unusual, if not unprecedented, as a source for UN Ambassador and National Security Advisor.

    There have been a huge number of politicians who’ve been US ambassador to the UN

    Lodge, Stevenson, Scranton, Bush, Moynihan, Andrew Young, Richardson, Danforth, Haley at least. Most weren’t holding an office when appointed. Was anyone, other than Haley, holding a elected office when appointed? I don’t have the inclination to check.

    Update- I checked further. Richardson and Young were both congress people when appointed. So three times is not unusual.

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  16. Bill Jempty says:

    @wr:

    In general I agree — but isn’t DeSantis term limited? If it’s a choice between two more years as governor — followed, no doubt, by a long career on the wingnut welfare circuit — or possibly decades in the Senate, I don’t think the choice is quite as clear cut.

    Both Graham and Scott were term limited when they ran for the Senate. Crist wasn’t.

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  17. Scott says:

    I’m sorry but Rubio is such a lightweight and not the brightest bulb. But apparently he was pushed by Susie Wiles.

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  18. Sleeping Dog says:

    @James Joyner:

    Yeah, that gamit worked out real well for Wendell Anderson and Rudy Perpich in Minnesota in the late 70’s and contributed to the reinvigoration of the Independent-Republican party in the state.

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  19. Jax says:

    ETTD, I guess it’s Rubio’s time to go on the chopping block. Followed by the inevitable book being published about what a moron Trump is.

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  20. Jen says:

    There have been a huge number of politicians who’ve been US ambassador to the UN

    To be clear: I know and understand that members of congress are frequently selected for cabinet posts. I am specifically talking about the number that have been tapped thus far for the incoming administration. Rubio: Senator; Stefanik: Congress; Waltz: Congress; Zeldin: former Congress–that’s four thus far, and two from New York State and two from Florida.

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  21. Bill Jempty says:

    You can throw Warren Austin on the list of politicians who were UN ambassador. Wikipedia says he was Senator from Vermont when appointed.

    So people in political office when appointed/nominate- Austin, Young, Richardson, Haley, and Stefanik. Bush and Lodge were defeated at the polls in Senate races the year before becoming ambassador.

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  22. Kylopod says:

    Governors become Senators a lot more often than the reverse. You even see this in states that don’t have term limits for governor, and I think one of the reasons is that there are strong norms against holding a governorship indefinitely, whereas it’s become so routine to stay in the Senate for decades until you croak that no one bats an eye at it anymore.

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  23. Jen says:

    Okay, I am going to phrase this differently.

    What is the average number of members of congress appointed per cabinet?

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  24. Bill Jempty says:

    @Jen: Jen,

    I was responding to James.

    That Trump is picking Congress critters for Cabinet posts is not surprising to me. I’ve been thinking it for months. Two reasons

    Trump is picking elected officials who’ve shown loyalty to him.
    And the market for qualified non elected officials who may want to put up with Trump was going to be limited.

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  25. Bill Jempty says:

    Some of us, me included, are missing the 400 lb gorilla in the room. Senators who became Sec of State- Hillary Clinton and John Kerry.

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  26. Jen says:

    @Bill Jempty: Gotcha.

    A (very) quick look at the Clinton (first) and Obama (first) cabinets reflects three members of Congress in each: Clinton=Aspin, Bentsen, Espy; Obama=Salazar, Solis, LaHood.

    So, four is not a huge aberration, assuming the appointments from Congress stop there.

    ETA: Whoops, Obama 1 cabinet should have Hillary there too, so Obama 1=4 sitting MOC.

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  27. Bill Jempty says:

    @Jen:

    What is the average number of members of congress appointed per cabinet?

    Obama had at least 11 former congress people or Governors in the 33 people who served in his cabinet. That’s at least one third but I didn’t check every person out either. Just ones I know who did.

    Make that 12. Lahood.

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  28. Jen says:

    @Bill Jempty: Yes, but that is across both terms. I was looking specifically at number per cabinet, so the only real way to analyze that is to look at the appointments right at the beginning of the term, because people resign, etc.

    That’s why I specifically chose the Clinton (1) and Obama (1) cabinets–it’s a start from zero.

    ETA: And, I realize that even “per cabinet” is messy, for that reason.

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  29. Bill Jempty says:

    Congress people who been Sec of Defense at least- Aspin, Rumsfeld, Hagel, Cohen, Laird, Cheney, Panetta

    Another Senator who was Sec of State- Muskie

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  30. Bill Jempty says:

    Fresh off the rumor mill- MTG for Food and Drug Administration. Why MTG for the FDA? She will be in charge of nuts.

    I couldn’t resist that one.

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  31. Kathy says:

    @James Joyner:

    If you were asked to asses a chimp wearing a tuxedo, would you regard it as a normal man and judge the impression on how well the jacket fits?

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  32. Scott says:

    @Kathy: For some reason, that recalled this scene from “A Fish Called Wanda”:

    Otto West : Don’t call me stupid.

    Wanda : Oh, right! To call you stupid would be an insult to stupid people! I’ve known sheep that could outwit you. I’ve worn dresses with higher IQs. But you think you’re an intellectual, don’t you, ape?

    Otto West : Apes don’t read philosophy.

    Wanda : Yes they do, Otto. They just don’t understand it. Now let me correct you on a couple of things, OK? Aristotle was not Belgian. The central message of Buddhism is not “Every man for himself.” And the London Underground is not a political movement. Those are all mistakes, Otto. I looked them up.

    Not that I’m in any way equating Marco Rubio with the fictional Otto.

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  33. CSK says:

    @Steven L. Taylor: @James Joyner:

    According to Politico, the MAGAs are deeply unhappy with Trump’s pick of Rubio for SOS.

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  34. gVOR10 says:

    PBS, via Political Wire, may explain why Rubio. There’s apparently talk of Lara Trump, Donald’s daughter in law, being appointed to the vacant seat.

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  35. James Joyner says:

    @Kathy: If the particular chimp routinely wore tuxedos, I guess so.

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  36. Jen says:

    @gVOR10: I am resisting the urge to make a joke about the seat remaining vacant…

    Does this mean she’ll be stepping down from the RNC?

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  37. Al Ameda says:

    Rubio will be a hapless prop while Trump takes his Nuremberg Rally Style around the world.

    Can’t wait for the next replacement Senator from Florida.
    Ron DeSantis? Matt Gaetz?

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  38. Michael Reynolds says:

    Rubio is perfect. He’s an invertebrate with a very high tolerance for humiliation. In the language of MAGA, he’s a Beta cuck.

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  39. Kathy says:

    @James Joyner:

    Hint your points of comparisons have names Marcos, Putin, Somoza, Bautista, Noriega, Tito, Mussolini, etc.

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