Stories from RedState, Strata-Sphere and elsewhere that the massive early voting so far isn’t going overwhelmingly for Barack Obama as expected have Memeorandum abuzz.
While it’s understandable that John McCain supporters are grasping for any good news they can find, the idea that California is “very tight,” let alone that “in the less liberal states [Obama] is in real trouble” is just absurd. While it’s interesting, if true, that Obama is up only slightly with the 210,000 early votes in California, it’s simply not within the realm of possibility that he’ll lose. Aside from the quirky Rasmussen survey, Obama is leading by at least ten points in every California poll. McCain isn’t even pretending to campaign there.
Early voters are a small, self-selected sample of the universe of voters. Their behavior can’t easily be extrapolated to Election Day outcomes.
As Bruce McQuain notes, there’s a real possibility that McCain will lose Georgia. My guess is that he won’t and will in fact retain most of the Bush states from 2000 and 2004 that are currently polling close. There’s the ever-so-slight possibility that he’ll win in Pennsylvania — which Al Gore and John Kerry won the last two times out — and make it very interesting. But there are no hard core blue states where he’s even remotely competitive.
“Redalert” is right to urge people so inclined to “Ignore the pundits. Forget the polls. Get out there and vote for John McCain.” The polls are a snapshot in time, a lot of states are close, turnout matters, etc., etc. I’ve already voted in Virginia, a state that’s very much in play, and will be glued to the returns next Tuesday night. Until and unless McCain loses Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio, I’ll continue to hope for an upset.
At the same time, however, I’d advise getting used to the idea of a President Obama. It’s by far the most likely outcome.
