Reverse Brain Drain
America's edge in innovation, built over a century, is being squandered in weeks.
In “American progress in peril,” Axios reporters Erica Pandey and Alison Snyder continue a recent theme here at OTB.
The U.S. is freezing research funding, canceling projects, firing thousands of federal scientists and creating an atmosphere of uncertainty that scientists warn could slam the brakes on progress.
Why it matters: America has enjoyed decades of dominance in science and technology — plus the economic boom, medical advancements and global influence that come with it. Now, as the U.S.’s global lead is contested and competition for the world’s top talent gets stiffer, the Trump administration is disrupting the system that has propelled the country.
“There are some immediate effects. People will be laid off, talent will go elsewhere, some research groups will shut down,” says Chris Impey, an astronomer at the University of Arizona. “But over the years it will have a profoundly negative impact. You’re creating an opportunity for other countries to happily start moving in, poaching our talent and riding the escalator of scientific progress.”
Stunning stat: 40% of U.S.-affiliated Nobel Prize winners in the sciences — physics, chemistry and medicine — between 2000 and 2023 were immigrants. Funding resources, top-notch universities, research freedom and a diverse culture that supports innovation are among the factors that have made the U.S. a global magnet for scientists.
Zoom in: Some of those factors are in flux. For example, in 2022, the NIH spent 25 times more on grants for health research than the next largest funder, a U.K. charity, according to Nature. But NIH funding has dropped by more than $3 billion since Inauguration Day, compared to the same period last year, as the Trump administration cancels research programs and halts funding, the Washington Post reports.
Some universities are accepting fewer graduate students amid funding uncertainty, and some professors are performing their own risk calculus to be sure they can support students. Changes at the Department of Health and Human Services, including the centralization of peer review for grants funded by the National Institutes of Health, are raising concerns about political interference in federal science-funding decisions.
The stakes: The U.S. could see a two-fold brain drain: fewer foreign scientists coming to America, and American talent heading to other countries. Three-quarters of the 1,600 scientists surveyed in a new poll from Nature said they are considering leaving the U.S. due to the disruptions to science caused by the Trump administration’s early actions.
“The developments in the U.S. are a huge opportunity for Germany and Europe. I know that a lot of people are considering leaving.” Ulrike Malmendier, a German economist who is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, told Germany’s Funke media group. France’s Aix Marseille University has earmarked millions of dollars to hire U.S. scientists. Université Paris Sciences et Lettres wants to recruit U.S. researchers who work in projects in areas targeted for cuts by the Trump administration, including climate science and gender studies, the N.Y. Times reports.
The upheaval has also been an opportunity for China and Russia: Both are allegedly trying to recruit former federal scientists.
The other side: White House and DOGE officials argue changes to the system will boost research, not stifle it. For example, they say funding switch-ups, like cutting the dollars NIH provides institutions for overhead costs, will free more funds for science. But universities say these administrative costs are a critical piece of conducting research.
“The Trump Administration is committed to achieving and maintaining unquestioned and unchallenged global technological dominance,” a White House official said. “We need fresh approaches to redefine how discovery happens in America to ensure our ecosystem draws talent, celebrates merit, and enables our scientists to focus on meaningful work.”
The big picture: Years before the funding freezes and firings, there were indications the U.S. lead in science was shrinking — while China was advancing in AI, biotech, space and other fields. The U.S. share of global R&D spending decreased while total spending grew. The number of international patents filed from inventors in China surpassed applications from the U.S. in 2021. In 2019, China for the first time awarded more doctorate degrees in science and engineering than the U.S.
What to watch: Scientists, CEOs, university leaders and policymakers earlier this year called for updating the U.S. scientific enterprise to compete in the 21st century. Recommendations from that group and others include immigration reform, changes in tax credit and code that could spur private sector R&D, reducing the administrative burden on scientists, and increased investment in AI, biotech and other fields.
President Trump has also tasked the newly confirmed head of the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy, Michael Kratsios, with revitalizing America’s science and technology enterprise, referring to a similar task FDR gave to his science adviser, Vannevar Bush. Bush advocated for federal investment in basic science, which led to the creation of the National Science Foundation and established the government pillar of the very scientific system that is currently in turmoil.
None of this makes the slightest bit of sense. Musk and company are ostensibly aiming to make government more efficient, but investment in basic science and research is cheap compared to the rewards it brings. The Trump national security strategy is ostensibly all-in on out-competing China, yet this is handing them a huge win for nothing.
If the US was actually interested in competing with China, the federal government would be increasing funding for sciences to universities. As of today, the US is getting technologically monkeystomped by China — and note that one of the few areas the US “leads” is vaccines. I hear RFK is working hard to stop that!
As a leftie, I feel so owned, and really isn’t vibes the point of all of this?
Fun fact: Private companies do not do the basic research which is required to achieve any breakthrough. Private companies license a technology only after it’s developed and proven viability at a university.. via a grant from the government. My first job was in tech transfer at an Ivy.. lots of profs say that things are viable that weren’t in that year, but without those profs to develop product, the pipeline comes to a screeching halt.
@Gavin:
So much this.
@Steven L. Taylor: @Gavin: It’s almost as though there was a reason that Congress, on a bipartisan basis, has been funding research for generations.
Another aspect of this is the round up and deportation of students in the most horrible ways possible. A quick check says there’s about little over a million foreign students. How many do you think simply won’t return next semester, if they don’t leave now. Take a million people out of the economy and that’s gonna be felt.
Plus, many, (most?) of those students would stay and are bright, committed, tough people. How many people are going to want to come to US universities if they are going to get shit on and then deported on a whim? I’m going to guess a handful of Hungarians and Russians and that’s it. The brain drain is going to be enormous and costly. A lot of those foreign students are paying full freight at universities too if I remember correctly. Who’s going to make up that budget shortfall? Especially when Trump starts making financial aid fully political*.
This is all going to make the US dumber, poorer, and weaker. We are never going to get back what we had, absolutely no one outside the US will accept it. The only way we are going to get close is by voluntarily eating a ton of shit. Which the EU and UK are going to have to figure out sooner or later too.
*We all need to stop paying our student loans. Fuck them. Anyone who makes an argument that’s any variation of “you took them out, you have to repay them” needs to pull their head out of their ass and wipe the shit out of their eyes. The days where that argument held any weight died in the 80s.
Also, very soon every US prof is going to be over 60, and after that they’re not going to have anyone willing to put up with this as a profession. Each year even as currently constructed, assistant/associate profs are looking for new positions because the profession was already precarious even before eliminating grants.. and the talent is a worldwide pool, not just only-within-the US. Not giving assistant profs reason to seek to stay in the US is guaranteeing those advances will be made in other countries.
When I think of exciting classrooms, I want to go to an 8am lecture given by a guy who himself will fall asleep at the board 2 days out of 5.
I realize “this is what they want” – but no advancements means no $$ for silicon valley which means stonks go down.
@Gavin: I bet we could use tariffs to fix this problem.
@Gavin: It depends to some degree on the industry. For example, in pharmaceuticals, small startups are usually the companies that do the basic research. After the drugs are developed, the big companies swoop in to acquire them or license their technology.
The mayhem at HHS, including the FDA, puts this innovation at risk. The startups are already on a roller coaster ride of uncertain funding. Complicating the approvals needed to bring a drug through the development process makes it even more likely that they will run out of money before they can complete the process. And, of course, we should not just feel sympathy for the people who run and work at these companies, but even more for people who don’t get the benefits of treatments developed for them.
@Steven L. Taylor: Like beer, tariffs are the solution and cause of every problem.
@Kingdaddy:
The little guys are quick to be acquired or license, because none of them can afford to conduct the Phase III clinical trial necessary for an FDA license.
@Beth: IIRC, many, many international students pay full freight at the university level. This is damaging on so many levels.
A rapist cult leader as president, a drunk talk show host as SecDef, a cretin at National Security, a Russian asset as DNI, a murderous head case at HHS, all while a creepy, bumbling billionaire randomly fires people. . . who could have guessed the result would be catastrophic stupidity?
Setting aside the ignorance and stupidity of these people, going on evidence alone, it would be reasonable to suspect that Trump is deliberately destroying this country.
If it walks like a traitor and talks like a traitor, maybe it’s a traitor.
Progress takes time.
Recombinant DNA and other gene editing tools have been around since the late 70s. There’s an obsession with gene therapy and stem cells, which hasn’t produced much in the way of results, but other things have. Not least the mRNA vaccines, but also immunotherapy, ways of synthesizing drugs, etc.
What gets stopped or destroyed now, are thing that won’t yield fruit for a decade or three. So, it may take that long for the US to lose its edge, at least to some extent. Or for aid loss to be obvious.
@Kingdaddy: I would be willing to wager that even at the start-up level, some of the more basic science they build on was probably first done at a university.
This isn’t to say that private entities never do such work, but even for a startup to do such work, there is usually a business interest at stake, which is not the case in a uni lab.
@Jen:
We have seen a version of this play out in Ontario:
1. Government reduces funding to universities
2. Government requires universities to lower tuition by 10% because of Covid, never allows even a restoration never mind an increase.
3. Universities turn to international students paying full cost to make up shortfall.
4. Federal government sharply decreases student visas due to perception that this is a cause of housing shortages.
This situation is still sorting itself out but does not look viable long term. And we are nowhere near the scale or incompetence that is screwing with education and government in the US.
One of my daughter’s roommates is planning on returning to Ukraine. She was a gold medalist in the international math olympiad. She is doing graduate work at one of the two major research institutions in Boston. While she is very bright she is claustrophobic and is terrified of being locked up. With Trump siding with Russia and threatening to take away refugee status for Ukrainians she is concerned that she could be treated like other people who have had their status changed. She doesnt want to be locked in a cell for an indefinite period then put in handcuffs to fly back to Ukraine. She would rather leave now on her own.
Her faculty advisor and a member of the university legal team met with her and some others. They were told that the consensus was the risks were low but not zero. They were also told that the university would have little ability to intervene.
Steve
@Jen: This is true.
I am expecting a serious decline in international enrollments in the Fall. This will hit hard for a lot of schools that have come to rely on those tuition dollars.
I know that in Trump 1 there were declines in international enrollments, and that was before the threat of random arrest was on the table. And that is on top of the fact that the admin is likely to be less inclined to grant visas in the first place.
Not sure if you all noticed this related story from a few days ago:
in France, Aix Marseille Université set up a modest multi-year program to attract American researchers.
The Un Enlightenment is on
@Steven L. Taylor: Oh, sure, a lot of it was started in the university. I was just pointing out that there’s an ecosystem of innovation that most people know nothing about. Wreck basic research in the universities and many dominos topple.
Reflexive anti-elitism is stupid. Stupidity has consequences.
@steve:
Unfortunately for the university in question, these students have enough experience with corrupt government that they realize that the second statement cancels out the first. Oh well…
ETA: I will note in passing that at one of the schools for which I do ESOL tutoring, teachers are reporting that students are expressing hesitancy to enroll in additional classes out of fear that ESOL classes will be easy to target for immigration sweeps and the fact of having a green card or other qualified status to reside and study in the US will not keep them from being arrested and/or detained and/or deported.
The other school has less brown students (and fewer, too) and is not experiencing this issue. So far.
If the UK or ANZ or Ireland were smart they’d open the door to any US researcher willing to relocate. English makes it easy. But the Nordic countries, plus Netherlands, also have very high levels of English fluency.
Also, there’s a limit how many US researchers other countries can accommodate. Therefore, many will simply waste their talents in other jobs.
@Jen:
@Steven L. Taylor:
We were in Boston yesterday and as we walked through the Common, my wife commented that one of the things that she enjoyed about coming to the city was the variety of ethnic groups, languages and cultural signifiers. I couldn’t help but think that as the felon gets his way, that many of those people will be gone.
Sad days are upon us.
May I recommend pulling up Project 2025 and searching for the word “research”?
https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf
Annoyingly, I can’t copy and paste from a pdf on my iPhone (limitation, or skill issue? I don’t know…), but on page 355 it discusses how administrative funds for research need to be cut because universities use the administrative funds to pay for DEI.
Page 218 has a passage about how universities, corporations, etc. need to align themselves for a generational fight against China, which is stealing American IP. I take this as an effort to roll back the number of evil foreign visas in the sciences.
I’m definitely using the wrong tool, as an iPhone and a hundreds of pages long pdf are not a match made in heaven. But the answers are there.
And the answer is basically that white supremacy is one hell of a drug. Better than ketamine, although as they’re even better together.
WaPo has an article about US tech companies telling their foreign born workers not to leave the US.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/03/31/immigration-h1b-fear-siliconvalley/
I haven’t read past the first paragraph or so, as I no longer WaPo, but I’m just going to say, once again, that white supremacy is one hell of a drug.
If something can make Stephen Miller feel superior to anyone, it is simply amazing.
@Gustopher:
I’m guessing those conversations are going like this:
“Don’t leave, don’t complain, you’re taking a paycut, or you’re going to El Salvador.”
You’re right though, White Supremacy is a hell of a drug. But what’s going to happen when those idiots find out that not only do we not want to live in their world, there’s more of us and we’re pissed.
@Beth:
Those idiots won’t understand that there’s more of us and we’re pissed until we get a few more of us to protest and vote.
If the 2024 election showed us anything, a significant swath of the American electorate can not be told of the unfortunate consequences of an authoritarian-friendly, fascist-adjacent ruling party. They have to see the adverse consequences for themselves.
That’s why those Project 2025 folks are moving so fast. Reality typically prevails over lies given time.
This is relevant to me. Before all this (waves hand around) transpired, arrangements were arranged for me to be a Visiting Professor at two universities in the coming year. 6 months in Australia, followed by 6 months in Belgium.
These visits were solely intended for research/clinical collaborations. No ulterior motives – from any of the parties – about recruitment.
Well… times have changed. And so have our discussions.
Still early going, no promises or commitments. But these universities are seeing opportunities (not just with me) and some are acting on them. I expect this will continue and grow.
For my own situation, obviously, it would be a massive change for my family and my lab. But we’re young enough… and intrepid enough… and capable enough. And things here are, well, you know.
At this moment, I’d still say it’s a less than 50% chance that we’ll move. But it’s not that much less. And I expect it will become lesser still once feet are on the ground in a few months.
@Mimai:
The son of close friends and his wife took his first job out of college for a company that sent him to Guam. After a couple of years there he had an opportunity to take a job in New Zealand, that was nearly 15 years ago. Initially he planned to build his resume and return to the US, but time passed that didn’t happen and now our friends (his parents) are sure that they’re never coming back. Frankly life is better there.
If you have the opportunity to be somewhere else, I’d take it.
I hope you guys are having fun with your ranting, but government share of funding for basic research has been falling since the 70s. Business funding exceeds government.
Probably more important, give me a large scale engineering project over “basic” research any day. The prime example is the space program.
But let us not get in the way of TDS.
@Connor:
You are showing you don’t know what basic research is.
You don’t get to large-scale engineering projects until the basic science is done.
@Connor: You know, I come here for a variety of reasons. To learn things I didn’t know about. To make a connection with people I think of as my friends. To hear from differing points of view. That includes “this is my life, and this is how I see things”.
I find all that valuable.
What are the needs that you come here to fulfill? Seriously, I can’t fathom your motivation.
@Steven L. Taylor:
Maybe the trump pandemic would have ended sooner, had the felon invested a few trillions on a tunnel from Mar a Lardo to Greenland instead of vaccines?
(I know the above is wrong in like ten dimensions).
@Connor:
Bullshit. Cite? You clearly have no idea what constitutes “basic research”.*
…and even if this were true, you’re saying that cutting US science by (say) 1/3 wouldn’t be a problem? Seriously? “Business funding exceeds government” isn’t nearly enough to counter “Trump is gutting US science capacity.”
*Yeah, I know, you actually do understand these things and are just trolling. My bad.
@Sleeping Dog:
Thanks, I appreciate your thoughts.
So many considerations to consider. And I’m only aware of a few of them.
@Connor:
Let’s be honest. It’s hard to avoid the actions of a deranged hell-bent-on-revenge Donald Trump.
@Mimai: I wish you luck in dealing with this complex decision.
At a minimum, congrats on the two visiting professorships.
@Connor:
I missed it the first time through, but this has to be the stupidest comment “Connor” has ever made.
First, the idea that you could have a space program without having done the basic (government-funded) science that made it feasible.
Second, the space program was a tremendous dump of taxpayer dollars into a project that, by Connor’s criteria, returned no benefits whatever to America.
Third, that’s wrong too — because the payoff from the space program had nothing to do with space. In the end, the biggest payoff was from the (government-funded) invention of HACCP… a benefit mechanism that nobody could have predicted. (And that this current administration will happily dismantle, in the name of deregulation…)
@Mimai: Lived as an expat teacher for 8 years. Loved it, but don’t have a family, so YMMV. In any event, enjoy your visiting prof jobs.
And if you do decide to go expat, keep paying into Social Security until you are vested. I have a friend who taught internationally for 20 years but saw the “don’t have pay into SS” as an advantage, until he returned here to retire.