Russia Insurrection Updates
One question answered. Another raised.
Two interesting reports in the aftermath of the short-lived Wagner Group insurrection.
The Telegraph (“Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance“):
Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.
It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.
Vladimir Putin will now try to assimilate Wagner Group soldiers into the Russian military and take out its former leaders, according to insights shared with The Telegraph.
The analysis offers clues into the mystery of why Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, called off his mutinous march on Moscow on Saturday just hours before reaching the capital.
Indeed. It’s the most obvious explanation. Then again, it’s hardly a shocking move by an autocratic regime. One would think Prigozhin would have safeguarded his family in advance. It’s not like it’s an odd time for a vacation.
BBC News (“Where is Russian President Vladimir Putin?“)
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s whereabouts remain unknown following the short-lived rebellion from the Wagner mercenary group.
There has been speculation that the Russian leader fled Moscow during the crisis after his presidential jets were tracked leaving the city.
Again, hardly a shocking move by an autocrat under siege. It’ll be interesting to see where and when he finally shows his face again. I’m honestly surprised he hasn’t done another televised address proclaiming his victory.
I don’t think we even know what the whole fiasco was really about. It wasn’t a coup attempt.
The only other thing I can say for sure, is that mercenary groups are seldom a good idea. And this goes back all the way to the First Punic War in the 200s BCE.
By today, the whole thing has a rather haphazard unplanned feel about it.
Very strange that Putin hasn’t shown his face. I don’t think it means he’s necessarily under siege or under arrest somewhere, but it is odd. On the other hand, Putin sometimes gives the impression that the bureaucracy is all that mattes, and communicating to the nation is an afterthought.
Interesting points: Shoigu has appeared on Russian media (albeit only in recorded film, which some folk reckon predated the rising; bit odd if so) and charges against Prigozhin have NOT been dropped!
Looks like Priggy’s “deal” may not have been one to put much trust in.
I wonder if he’ll make it to Minsk?
And from there? Problem of being a war criminal who betrays other war criminals; safe havens are hard to come by, even if you do have a fortune stashed in Switzerland.
(I’m assuming he does, of course)
@JohnSF: Even the usual refuges for rich war criminals are probably out of reach. There’s not many dictators who would welcome someone who has a history of using private armies to overthrow regimes.
@Michael Cain:
Most coups and revolutions and insurrections do tend to be haphazard and poorly planned, if only because wars themselves are chaotic and involve a constantly shifting terrain of power and support.
There isn’t any way to predict exactly how people will respond once the bullets start flying and blood spilling. Our own experience on Jan 6 is a good example of how once things start to get serious, public sentiment shifts, and pretty rapidly, but in unpredictable directions.
It will be interesting to see what “integration” of the Wagner forces into the Russian army looks like. Will the generals preserve Wagner’s current organization and command structure, spread out individual Wagner fighters into existing units as replacements, or something in between (say, preserve some of the existing force structure, but replace the commanders)?
China:
https://twitter.com/MoritzRudolf/status/1673122951992836098
(a thread)
@Kathy: @Kingdaddy:
Been hearing about the integration of Wagner forces into the Russian military. Which leads me to ask about the Wagner forces around the world, particularly in Africa.
Then my thought wander to Blackwater (now Constellis Holdings?) and whether some lessons for the US should be derived from this fiasco.
@Kathy: @Kingdaddy:
Been hearing about the integration of Wagner forces into the Russian military. Which leads me to ask about the Wagner forces around the world, particularly in Africa.
Then my thought wander to Blackwater (now Constellis Holdings?) and whether some lessons for the US should be derived from this fiasco.
@Scott: Apologize for the double posting. This double posting has happened a couple of times to me. When I post is get an error message back but find it posted anyway. Also, don’t get editing capabilities to delete it either.
@Scott: Apologize for the double posting. This double posting has happened a couple of times to me. When I post is get an error message back but find it posted anyway. Also, don’t get editing capabilities to delete it either.
Looks like Putin is already backtracking on any promises made to the Big P.
Prigozhin HAS to have realized that this was one likely possibility and we haven’t seen hide nor hair of him since Sunday….so he’s already in whatever African country he’s chosen as his bolthole?
@Scott:
The head of the dept of redundancy would like a word with you. 🙂
@MarkedMan:
Putin did give a televised address as Wagner menaced Moscow. Very low energy tho.
The big, bad, anti-woke strongman and master strategist hiding in his bunker, pleading for revolutionaries to stand down. While many of the Russian people — with whom we’re promised Putin is super duper popular — reacted to his potential downfall with either indifference and apathy or outright glee.
Glenn Greenwald, Joe Rogan’s guestlist, and Matt Taibbi hardest hit (Tucker Carlson is no longer relevant enough to include).
@grumpy realist:
I’m stunned. There’s gambling going on in here?
Informational warfare (thread)
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1671142382232797184
Prigozhin has popped up again.
Sounds like he’s trying to pull a “the Tsar is good and I never went against him! I was just trying to tell the Tsar about his nasty corrupt advisors!”
Sorry, dude. You managed to spook the Tsar sufficiently that he scampered out of the Kremlin and made him look like a scared rabbit. He’s never going to forgive you for that.
(This also made it pretty clear that aside from whatever troops are under the aegis of a warlord, Moscow may not have authority outside in the countryside. The average Russian looks to be more interested in stepping back and letting those claiming authority duke it out. He’s not going to treat “a threat to the state” like a Nazi invasion and Putin must be terrified to realise that.)
@Sleeping Dog: Thats properly rendered as the Department of Redundancy Department. Also known as the Navy.
@Kingdaddy:
To borrow from “Pulp Fiction”:
Normally the organization would be dead as Fannies Fried Chicken, but they caught the Russian military in a period of war so they will see what they can do.
These are mercs so if they had been willing to serve in the regular Russian army they would already be there. It is much more likely most would like to continuing as an elite unit with their current level of pay. Find a few good officers from the field ranks, put them in charge, propose business and usual (scouts honor!), and then let those who want out out. See what’s left.
Putin press conference in Moscow; with Shoigu featured prominently.
Message seems clear: the Army General Staff remain on top of the dungheap, underneath rooster Putin.
I wonder if the FSB will be made the fall-guys again, this time for the failure to monitor Wagner closely enough.
We may see; or not.
@dazedandconfused:
Got to be some serious bad blood in the system; indications are Wagner shot down several helicopters and an elint plane in the course of events. Getting Army and ex-Wagner to be buddies may not be easy.
And some insane footage has come out of airstrikes by Russian forces on a Russian highway.
Again, this is not going to do Putin’s rep as the guarantor of order any good.
If it wasn’t for the Western veto, it’s interesting to speculate how far a full-on Ukrainian offensive via Belgorod might get. Kursk?
@JohnSF:
Not much between that border and Kursk…or Moscow, really. Except nukes, of course. It’s all fun and games until someone gets nuked, they say.
Prigozhin has frequently struck me as someone with serious impulse control issues. He got mad (again), lashed out (again), only went further than before when he suddenly realized he was screwed if he continued.
While he’s Prigozhin’s no great genius, I do have to agree with him and wonder what the hell Shoigu has to do to get replaced.
If only it had lasted a bit longer and taken out more helicopters.
@JohnSF:
How many more hapless FSB scapegoats can Putin imprison? He’s gonna run out at this pace.
@dazedandconfused:
Resorting to using nuclear weapons on Kursk: the sure sign of a master strategist in action.
@JohnSF:
Trying to invade Russia might be either a strategic or tactical blunder, depending on what the chef was thinking, it might be both at once.
True? Dunno.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1674138362377129984