So, let’s consider the following scenario. A man goes to his doctor, and the doctor says I have good news! You have cancer, but we think it might not be terminal! Maybe, just maybe, it’s treatable. We have a known drug that will at least stop the spread and then, if we engage in the right series of lifestyle changes and some experimental treatments, you might make it! The cancer doesn’t have to kill you, but hope alone isn’t going to fix it.

So, the baseline for this conversation is: American democracy has cancer, but it may not be terminal yet. We need to have Repulicans lose control of at least the House, and hopefully the Senate first to stop the growth. From there, we need investigations and legislation (that will be vetoed) to signal to the population what can be done if the Democrats win a trifecta in 2028. And then there are going to have to be reforms, not just the hope that eating more salads will make the tumor go away.

Now that I have properly set the mood, I am going to say that at least as it pertains to the midterms, Trump and his allies are acting like they have no plan or capacity to actually steal the election. This is not to say that there are no examples of interference, nor to say that there will be no shenanigans, but rather that there is actual behavior that suggests they know they can lose substantially in just over a week’s time.

Here are some examples of what I am talking about.

First, Musk.

Even if you are the world’s richest man, you don’t spend what is approaching half a billion dollars if you think your side can’t lose. Via The Hill: Musk midterm spending tops $442M.

Tech mogul Elon Musk has spent more than $442 million in the midterm elections, after pouring another $76.8 million into his super PAC over the past month, campaign finance filings show.

[…]

Musk has spent heavily backing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) amid a tight Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.

He gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC backing Republican Senate candidates, in two increments in September that were each disbursed to a Texas super PAC backing Paxton a day later.

Those are the actions of a man who thinks Talarico could win (and of a man who does not want to be subpoenaed by Congress).

Second, Trump.

The list is long, and the following is not comprehensive.

• Promising voters $5,000 if the GOP wins in November. Why incentivize voters with fake promises if you have a plan to steal the election?
• His whole diesel “deal” with Russia was aimed at quelling Midwestern fears about fuel prices in the lead-up to the election. That is the action of a person who thinks public opinion matters.
• His beef “deal” (remember that one?) is of a similar type.
• He let slip in a campaign rally the other day, whilst ostensibly campaigning for Republican Michael Whatley in NC, that Roy Cooper was going to win. This strikes me as meaning he has been briefed on how all of this is going, and the combination of his aging brain and doing stream-of-consciousness performance art equals saying the truth by accident.
• The Alaska lawsuit (I will address that in a separate post) is just plain stupid, and also indicates that he thinks Peltola is going to win.

While I do think that Trump fears being impeached again, the reality is he doesn’t care about Congress, so given his narcissism, why expend energy on stealing something that isn’t about him personally? I am more worried about how he is going to behave over the next two years, and especially in January of 2029, than I am about this cycle.

And, really, as a general matter, Republicans, either in terms of individual candidates or in terms of organizational activities (like where they are spending money), suggest quite clearly that they are bracing for real contests. And they expect to lose, with the question being, by how much?

For example, via PBS: Republicans retreat from battleground districts as lines shift in House races.

The shifting money in the final three weeks of midterm campaigns points to an increasingly defensive posture by Republicans, who have already trimmed their expectations in U.S. Senate races, and new aggression from Democrats, who are trying to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings.

“You can tell now where people are competing based on where they’re putting the money,” said Stu Sandler, a Republican strategist working on House and statewide races this year.

They are telling us what they think by how they are behaving.

Yes, there are things like voter roll games in Texas and the hunt for alleged illegally registered voters in California (they may have found 28!), but none of that rises to the level of an ability to steal an election. I am not dismissing any such tactics, but I am simply putting it all in perspective.

I will note that concerns about the House not seating members are not nothing, it is a highly unlikely scenario. Granted, the fact that I am even mentioning it is a sign of where we are as a country.

To sum: even with a corrupt, authoritarian, and illiberal administration in charge that does not value democratic competition, signs indicate that the elections should be free and fair. Better yet, even with all the flaws of our institutional machinery, some level of democratic accountability is coming.

The question starting in January (and going forward) is whether the Democrats are capable of fighting the cancer, or if they are going to be content to just wait around until it kills us.

So, tl;dr: American democracy has cancer, but maybe it isn’t terminal (yet).