South Korea Update
Here’ the latest from the NYT: South Korean Leader Will Face Impeachment Vote Over Martial Law Declaration.
The National Assembly can impeach the president if more than two-thirds of lawmakers vote for it. Mr. Yoon’s party controls 108 seats in the 300-member legislature, so some members of his party would have to vote for the impeachment motion for it to pass.
If the lawmakers vote to impeach Mr. Yoon, he would be suspended from office. For the president to be removed from office, the Constitutional Court must approve the impeachment in a trial.
So we will wait and see if enough members of the People Power Party have more respect for the Korean constitutional order than Republicans did for the American version.
Matthew Shugart has a great post with a rundown of the constitutional issues: The South Korean autogolpe attempt.
His update includes this from BlueSky from Joel Atkinson, a professor at Hankuk University in Seoul.
Impeachment would require at least 8 members from Pres. Yoon’s own party to vote with the opposition. Then it has to go to the Constitutional Court. But 3 of 9 justices retired, and replacements haven’t been confirmed. The current 6 justices are not enough. A min of 7 are required
[image or embed]— Joel Atkinson (@joelatkinson.bsky.social) December 3, 2024 at 8:39 PM
The BBC has a handy infographic:
Atkinson’s BlueSky feed is worth reviewing for quite a lot of useful news and information about the autogolpe attempt by Yoon and its fallout.
One interesting observation is that the plan/hope from Yoon and his cabinet was that the military would block the parliament from assembling, thus blocking a vote. The military did not do so, and here we are.
Along those lines (via The Telegraph via Yahoo News), Two hours and 48 minutes of chaos: How martial law rose and fell in South Korea.
Jung Su-yeon crawled on her hands and knees through the frantic legs of South Korea’s security forces to save democracy.
She had rushed through her city of Seoul shortly after the president shocked the world by announcing martial law and sending the army to the gates of parliament to seize power.
Helicopters circled overhead as crowds of police and military stood between Ms Jung and her colleagues making a last stand.
“The MPs and their secretaries all jumped the walls to get inside, but there were still police [there] and a fight broke out,” she told The Telegraph in the early hours of Wednesday morning. “I managed to crawl between the legs of a policeman.”
Once inside, Ms Jung – who works for the opposition Democratic Party’s secretary general Kim Yoon-deok – found herself in a face-off, and she was unsure where the situation would end.
[…]
Other MPs meanwhile scrambled to get to the stone National Assembly building to call a vote to bring the entire debacle to a rapid close.
[…]
Even Mr Yoon’s party were dismayed; his lawmakers said the presidential office had never warned them about a martial law announcement.
Still – as Ms Jung found out – getting inside the National Assembly itself would prove easier said than done, with South Korea’s special forces storming the parliament building and attempting to block the entrance.
Fundamentally, the account in the piece (and others) suggests that, on the one hand, the military tried to follow the orders of the president and the defense minister, but also that they were not willing to use the violence that would have been necessary for the coup to have been successful. This is always a key gamble by those who would attempt to use the military for such ends: will they shoot?
There is also the question of whether the military, once deployed in such a fashion, will listen to other centers of power within the state, such as parliament. It would seem that Korean institutions were strong enough to withstand this anti-democratic onslaught.
The miscalculation by Yoon and his cabinet was enormous and it is a major affirmation of the resiliency of South Korea’s democratic institutions that this attempt was quelled so quickly. It is also a sad reminder of how poorly our system responded to the January 6th insurrection. As a lifelong observer of American and international politics it is an amazing and depressing contrast to see.
To be clear, I am not saying that I think Trump would try something like Yoon’s autogolpe attempt in the same manner. There are numerous reasons that would be unlikely, but this is a reminder that Trump did try to overturn an election and his party lacked the courage to make sure he was banned from national politics.
Also worth a read: South Korea’s Warning for Washington in The Atlantic.
The statement, “I crawled between the legs of a policeman” is so … curious. I mean, is it possible that the policeman didn’t notice, or simply didn’t take notice?
Those military/law enforcement folks were put in a tough situation. I think I would find the details fascinating.
@Jay L Gischer: Based on what I am familiar with from Korea, “didn’t take notice” is probably more accurate. Becoming a police officer is far more deliberate there than it is here, at least in my take. There are specific national police academies that everyone goes to, and plans for how to pass the admissions examinations of.
I’ll say this again:
It’s imperative to remove such a person from office, and to bring any possible charges, in addition to any others he might face, in order to end the possibility of another coup.
The people fo Peru had no trouble recognizing this. They had the example set by Fujimori. Alas, Korea has several examples of dictatorial rule in its history as well. They should do likewise.
@Jay L Gischer: My initial read of the situation is the military complied with the commands from on high while also not being at all committed to them and knowing full well that it wasn’t their job to make the coup work.
@Jay L Gischer:
Not great. More likely the officer noticed but decided not to use force to stop her. Considering the number of politicians that got through without anyone being hurt it would appear to have been a general condition within the ranks.
Someone forgot to read “Couping For Dummies”, I guess.
@Steven L. Taylor
Yes, and equally distressing that the Biden administration didn’t seem to address our democracy’s exposed “soft points,” especially during the first two years while having support from the House and Senate.
If those who seek to remake our government into something less liberal continue to batter the door, at some point without reinforcement, the door will crash down.
In light of the situation in South Korea and America’s self absorbed need to compare the fallout therefrom to our own January 6th moment, one is simply reminded of Merrick Garland’s abject failure as Attorney General. His lack of fortitude will haunt this nation going forward.
@~Chris: Like you, I would very much like to have seen Trump prosecuted successfully for his document handling crimes as well as his involvement in 1/6.
This was, however, a lot harder than you seem to think it was. For instance, there’s
this:
I have a life-long stake in the proposition that failure does not equal incompetence. Smart, competent people fail sometimes. Especially when they attempt things that are very difficult. Trump’s money, and political punch was always going to make this very difficult.
I don’t know why, for instance Smith charged Trump in Florida, rather than in DC. Maybe it was a mistake, maybe it wasn’t. He got a judge that in the end went completely into the tank for Trump.
@Jay L Gischer: As the great General James A. Van Fleet often professed, one must have the “Will to Win,” and Merrick Garland was unable to muster the will to win in the most important undertaking of his tenure as Attorney General. As Gene Kranz, former NASA Fight Director famously stated, “Failure is not an option,” and the DOJ failed to protect and defend the Constitution and our citizens who believe in justice for all.