Sunday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
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Sunday, November 10, 2024
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96 comments
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a retired Professor of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
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Over the last week I have been in Paris and London and as I return, I’ve caught up with the posts here the past week regarding the tragic election of Trump as president. And I’m pissed and I’m going to speak my mind. So with that caveat and knowing the certain predictable negative responses by the smug elitists here, let’s go.
Firstly, when Dems ask themselves why did Trump win, look in the mirror.
The commentariat here is so far out of touch with the concerns of the Average American, and has no clue about what they care about, and how they view our economy and our politics.
A case in point? Just look at the denial, the dismissal, the opprobrium, the venom directed at Mr. Reynolds and his blunt insights of the electorate and the Democrats’ shortcomings.
You all should ask his forgiveness since Mr. Reynolds understands the average voter far better than 95% of the deluded here. Your rebuttals in retrospect are embarrassing and infantile. His warnings went unheeded and the result is we got our ass kicked.
LBJ was wrong about civil rights condemning the Democrats in the south for a generation. We’ve lost the south for three generations and what has it gotten us? A total lunatic elected for the second time. The disaster of black lives matter, and the defund the police hysteria and the reparations demand are revolting to most Americans constantly having to hear that white people are the devil, that this country’s history is of a corrupt, empty, privileged society and the a priori assumption that all white people are racist crackers just simply doesn’t work.
This position is further exacerbated by the absurd notion by many black leaders that we are no better off racially than we were in 1953, or that race relations have never been this bad and little progress has been made the last 60 years regarding black political involvement and aspirations. Voters rightfully saw this as garbage.
We deny the fact that 3% of the population (black males under 35) commit almost 40% of all violent crimes in the United States and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the backlash would be if the Dems solution is no bail, decriminalizing crimes using the weak justification that this is all Whitey’s fault for past discrimination, and that we should let black gang bangers do what they do because it’s our fault for their plight. Just look what happened in the bluest of the blue states California, whose voters overwhelmingly approved of criminal reform that punishes repeat offenders. I guess we are Alabamans now since we rejected the woke soft on crime bullschite.
What is so obvious reading the past comments here is the total blindness of the commentariat to the fact your condescension really did piss people off on immigration and crime. We became identified with boutique ideas around race and gender that never really sold well among ordinary working-class voters.
In the past I have repeatedly mentioned the insane, ridiculously stupid position the Democrats have on border issues. Responses to me were “you’re a racist” then the pivot to blaming corporate America, the Republicans, etc. for the problems but never admit our Dem
Leaders choke on the words, “illegal border crossings are wrong and we WILL enforce the law and arrest you.” It the equivalent of the Fonz trying to say “I’m sorry”, it’s just an impossibility for most of you.
A perfect example of just how out of touch we are on immigration is when Biden had to walk back his inadvertent use of the word “illegal” in reference to a criminal migrant in his last State of the Union Address. He had to apologized profusely and publicly and grovel before the Dem woke crowd that he had mistakenly spoken, and that he will do 100 Hail Mary’s and pray for forgiveness for daring to utter the word “illegal”. But to most here, you find nothing wrong with having Biden do that and because of that stupidity we just got our asses kicked.
I wrote several years ago that the Democratic Party was much more interested and concerned with making sure that Pedro, the illegal alien who got a law degree from UCLA be able to practice law, even though it’s a federal offense for any law firm to hire him rather than care about the white steel worker who lost his job, or the white southern textile worker who lost their job due to the Democrats neo liberal trade pacts, starting with NAFTA in the 90s and Clinton’s disastrous decision to allow China as a most favored nation country which eventually wiped out and decimated whole regions of fly over country.
In 2020, 70% of the voters were white, 23% were black and Hispanic, which means almost three times as many white voters as black/Hispanic minority voters. So what does our enlighten democratic leadership decide to do? Pander to the 23% at the expense of the 70% which mathematically means for every one white voter that you pick up it’s the equivalent of picking up three black/Hispanic voters. The Democrats have come to regard the white working-class voters as reactionary and racist. So how did this pandering to those black and Latino voters turn out this election? Total unmitigated disaster. Barack Obama carried the nonwhite working class and noncollege voters by 67 points. Harris carried them with 33. That’s a halving of the margin among those who should have been the bulwark, the core, of the Democratic Party.
To illustrate how bankrupt our strategy was regarding Trump is that he made particular advances among Hispanic voters, carrying traditionally Democratic Texas border counties including Starr, which had voted Democratic in every election since 1892. He also took Florida’s Miami-Dade, which hadn’t gone Republican since 1988, and heavily Puerto Rican Osceola, where Biden led in 2020 by nearly 14 points. Trump’s improvement among black voters, especially men, helped close the gap in Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee and push him over the top in their three key “blue wall” states.
Hey DK how is your bitter, black radical, hate whitey bullshit working for ya. Again, we got our ass kicked. And DK reliably casts Mr. Reynolds as one of those whiteys.
I had a conversation with an UBER driver, prior to the election and we talked about who might win the election. He relayed to me an anecdote about his friend who has a 650 FICO score and when he went to purchase a new car, the interest rate was 15%. Result? He didn’t buy a car and he blamed it on Biden’s policies.
In light of this reality, the response of the Dems was “ the economy is in great shape – you’re just too stupid to realize it.”
Those “despicable” voters were turned off by a party that has veered sharply away from its greatest strength, which is uplifting the working and middle classes. The Democrats are no longer the party of the people. They’ve lost touch with the working class. With the Democrats having embraced identity politics, the Republicans are the party of the working class in this country now. My God, FDR is turning over in his grave.
Unfortunately our woke crowd failed to prioritize disinflationary policy and instead spent much of 2022 looking for ways to pass the spending demanded by Democratic interest groups. As a result of this pork laden stimulus, prices were too high, and the Federal Reserve bore the brunt of fighting inflation through raising interest rates. This killed the very working class people the Democrats are supposed to champion see my example of the Uber driver as case number one the working class for the brunt of inflation, and repaid us by voting for lunatic.
an interesting and I think true – as one sees this in this very blog commentariat – observation from Mr Silver
This is very much the case – what I have oft seen, a secular religious quality really, ideological truths.
Trump of course is a con-man, but he has all the fluidity of a con-man (or equally of a master marketer) – and being open to making the Sale to any comer, no matter how impure.
We’re entering the silly season of election reaction where people are riding their hobby horses into the discussion and claiming that things they’ve believed all along were responsible for Trump’s win. Lather, rinse, repeat. (Although it’s interesting to see that Uber drivers have replaced cab drivers as sources of wisdom – a milestone of the 21st century, I suppose.)
Personally, I’m waiting for all the numbers to come in – do we even know the final tally of House seats yet? – before looking at the big picture and drawing conclusions.
Sigh. Starting off with an insult isn’t a great way to get your points across.
I can’t speak for others here, but this is 100% the opposite for me. I’m surrounded by Trump supporters, who spend a LOT of time telling me how awful the economy is. Of course, it isn’t, but I understand that they don’t FEEL like THEY are benefiting.
Look, Democrats make a lot of mistakes, particularly when it comes to running. I was deeply concerned that American misogyny would be too steep a hill to overcome (and I was correct, which brings me absolutely no joy at all). I remain concerned that party activists will not learn the lessons of this election and we’ll be in the same position when selecting a candidate in four years. My only real hope at this point is that we manage to take Congress in 2026.
It is still important to listen to and protect the most vulnerable.
It is still important to right past wrongs.
It is still important to work towards a more equitable and just society.
I simply hope that Democrats understand that you can’t do any of that if you aren’t in power. I’ll repeat until I pass out: FOCUS ON THE END GOAL.
@The Q:
“We need to stop kowtowing to the radical left and start supporting popular positions like Jim Crow segregation” almost reads like a parody of squishy moderate appeasement.
Amusing to see Mr Silver confirmed.
@The Q: Well you certainly are going to attract quite the level of reaction there…. (and I had not read this before sharing the Silver observation).
Herasy and apostasy will not be very well welcomed by the Lefty Left fraction.
@Jen:
This remains fallacious and rather remains part of the problem.
the net metrics across multiple economies do rather show that working class in distinction from the white collar experienced a larger infaltionary hit – particularly in base consumption basket, which is more stressful.
As a proper economist, I shall say until you all accept that sub-national economic statistics decomposition is needed, continuing to poopoo the economic perception is a failure mode.
Now I allow that it is likely that higher-income Trump supporters are more engaged in vibes but the US is hardly unique in the situation of differential socio-economic impact of inflation.
That and it is equally the long-standing international lesson that politically inflation bursts are pure political poison that populations absolutely hate. Minimisation is not a path to political success (nor is ongoing blaming of Fox news).
In terms of the inflationary burst – I shall add that the broad denialism (Drum, broad Lefty commentariat, and broad Left) sadly played into the very stereotypes of the Left (oft well founded) of being poor stewards in such situations…
My own opinion as expressed here and at Drum at the time was that indeed the 2nd ‘stimulus’ was a clear policy mistake even at the time it was pushed (and the Lefty Left were at the time angry at Biden for not having more) as the signs of broad market inflation were already showing up. It was, however, in the Biden context, an understandable policy mistake based on 2008 which his people lived through.
However the fundamental political lesson to international lessons, is that populations absolutely hate hate hate inflationary bursts, yes even to irrational levels – and the Party in Power pays a heavy political price, whereas modest recessions and unemployment are rather more tolerated (and the pain typically rather more concentrated so even where votes are impacted, it is less broad) – this is factual reality, observable across multiple democratic systems, not mirage generated by Fox News, the Lefties go to excuse for USA…
A political lesson to take on board in a cold blooded fashion if one does not want to deliver wins to one’s opponent…
(it further not being particularly useful and helpful to attack the very Central Bank that is saving your asses from having an Erdoganesque Turkish type inflation burst which certainly would have made this not a knife edge result but an utter blood bath)
The rather autistic general Democrats response as the Q put it:
(or duped by Fox News…. which although we can be sure the arch Uni-dorm lounge rhetorical game will be to ask for a cite and quote, but it is a very spot on correct impressionistic summary of how the uni-educated white-collar Democrat bohemian bourgeousie Left came off to many “not them.”)
FYI I am now Xitter-free!
@Stormy Dragon:
You don’t think we need to embrace bigotry to keep the bigots out of power? next you’ll be claiming we don’t need to burn the country down in order to save it.
Gosh! @ Q – my eyes have been opened!
That civil war thing, we could have completely avoided it avoided it… and WWII? We could have save a lot of money (and gotten so many voters, no doubt) just saying that Germany was fine and America First.
It’s one thing to disagree on degrees, it’s a completely another for democrats to become the worst of the republican party.
In short: Fcuk you. Die. Just die.
@The Q: @Lounsbury:
Both of you make points that should be taken. I recognize fully that you are talking mostly about an attitude adjustment. (not in a negative way, we all need them from time to time).
At the same time, some of us, for good reason are unwilling to accept dishonest framing or outright mischaracterization of our positions.
I don’t have time to go through an entire line by line of every point. But two illustrate what I mean.
-defund the police: IIRC, we mostly thought the slogan itself was an own goal messaging-wise and from the perspective of content. It was framed by ops as abolish the police, which was not the desired policy. The goal was moving away from using the criminal justice system as a warehouse for every problem, and shifting some of the funding to programs that address root causes.
-hating whitey: from what I can tell, I don’t think DK hates white people. He knows most of the people here are white. He interacts with most of us just as we interact with each other.
In both cases, is it not fair to take exception to mischaracterizations of our positions?
As far as Reynolds goes, I doubt he gives a shit about an apology.
@The Q: At the risk of sounding condescending, I gave you a thumbs up because you said a lot of things that needed saying and it contributes to the after action analysis. I just don’t think there is one answer. Personally, my blindness is to the vibes vs rational axis. I just don’t understand people who go against their own interests for sake of grievance or revenge or whatever. Second, my personal political environment resides deep into Trump territory (boat parade division with huge dose of Christian Nationalism and resentment). I don’t understand the bitterness of people who have so much.
@Lounsbury:
Of course the working class experienced a larger inflationary hit, they have less discretionary income. The point, which you seem to be intentionally missing, is that inflation has subsided–and that’s beside the fact that the US experienced a smaller inflationary hit (and recovered faster) than other developed economies. Our unemployment rate remains low. The stock market (which I understand is not the broader economy, but DOES matter to those in or nearing retirement) is at record and near-record highs. And those high egg and milk prices in the US that we keep hearing about? Those prices are due to *market forces* resulting from an avian flu epidemic that has resulted in the culling of 21 million birds this year alone.
Look, I get that you want to keep blaming “lefty vibes” for pretty much everything. But it’s simply not the case.
Anecdotal and just my personal experience with my local (northeast Ohio) republican neighbors ….approx 8 out of 10 folks who insist that the current economy “sucks” are driving SUV’s that are two years old or less. Most have recently taken vacation at out of country all inclusive resorts. Several are buying gold as a hedge.
My point is that it hard to take the “Biden economy sucks” seriously when the speaker seems to be doing well economically (at least reflected by their discretionary spending).
One of my contacts recently told me that they would not pay 75 cents more for eggs (compared to 2019 prices) because it would break their budget after they paid their monthly charges for their cable, new iPhone and streaming subscriptions.
I just shake my head.
Defund the police largely didnt happen. I went through the police budgets of our largest cities and and only about a dozen decreased their budgets. All of those except one increased their budget the following year and all of them are spending now, adjusted for inflation, than they did before Floyd. Defund the police exists now because the right wing media keeps it alive.
Bail? Should we point out that crime rates are actually falling in most fo the places that limited cash bail, largely because crime is falling almost everywhere. Trump constantly claimed crime was increasing but he was lying. When studied, there is no evidence that cash bail reduced crime or recidivism. What is does is eliminate the ability to pay resulting in prolonged pre-trial incarceration, when the person might actually be innocent.
Those steel workers? Yup, Clinton happened to be president when it started but it was driven by conservatives and accelerate under Bush.
AS I keep noting, incumbents everywhere in the world lost. In the US the main drivers were inflation, immigration and trans issues as the GOP clearly promoted the trans people are icky meme and people were receptive.
https://reason.org/policy-brief/the-effects-of-cash-bail-on-crime-and-court-appearances/
Steve
Here’s a popular position: giving blockers to minor children should be illegal. That has something like 3 to 1 support in a recent poll.
This is an opinion based on ignorance and calumny. It is a violation of the 14th Amendment, and I can’t count on the Court to uphold that.
Given how popular it is, I can only conclude that lots of Democrats hold this position. Because they’ve read a couple articles in the NYTimes, and because it sounds kinda weird. That means they think they know better than doctors, parents, the children in question, and those who went through childhood with and without blockers. The regret rate for blockers is much lower than the regret rate for plastic surgery (for cis people). Much lower.
And yet bloggers like Kevin Drum reads a study that gives a regret rate and scratches his head – that doesn’t sound great to Kevin. He doesn’t attempt any context. He shows no sign of seeing it when commenters post things about contextual regret rates.
I frankly am feeling very isolated and alone and assaulted, and I’m just the parent of a trans girl. I continue to believe as Sarah McBride believes, that hate is much harder up close. But wow, are we in for a rough time.
So, your “more popular position” is going to make my life, and the lives of people I care about, miserable. Guess what I think you should do with your “more popular position”.
@Kurtz: My dear fellow, The Q made his own characterisations. I simply noted he would attract much negativity for his non-adherence to the preferred discourse amongst at minimum loud segment of commentariat. Which predictably it has. My views on the issues of communication and autism of Democrats Uni-grad centric visions in terms of political win/loss have I think been clear enough.
That said, the University lounge type reaction on parsing and “what we really said meant” shows you all fundamentally do not understand your problem (or are not equipped to do so) – in terms of the brand image. Intellectualised quibbling, parsing, hair-splitting, and excusing-away-rationalisation over your losing brand image is part of that.
Mr Trump at minimum understood branding is not an intellectulaised process. You might well profit from trying to grapple with that.
A sizable portion of residents feel that they are held in contempt by a sizable portion of other residents. That they are looked down upon. Seen as intellectual and cultural inferiors.
They have a point. There is a snobbery (explicit and implicit) that animates much of the discussion of sociopolitical issues. And this gets amplified and bastardized by a large part of the media industrial complex.
For many residents, this feeling is a (the?) starting point. Everything else is downstream: their media consumption, their selection of meta-epistemic authorities, their interpretation of “facts” and “data,” their voting behavior, etc.
This is how the human brain works. How human psychology works. Thankfully so, as it confers adaptive advantages.
Within this framework, messaging is not the primary way forward. Positive intergroup contact is. Unfortunately, there is a natural resistance to such contact — and that resistance is driven by the very same contempt at the root of the problem.
Note, I have framed this as a divide with two sides — alas, this is incomplete. And I have focused on one side of the divide — I am posting to OTB after all.
@Jen: Well it rather appears you did not in the least understand my comment, and perhaps are not equipped. The comment was principally political in the tone-deaf reaction of the US Left, not the macro-economic statistics. However since the subject has been raised and I am in fact a proper financial economist and former central banks advisory member:
Primo: the US comparator on inflation is mixed on international – better than UK, not better than eurozone in aggregate on non-energy basis. The eurozone higher inflation overall is an energy driven factor that is heavily a Russian gas hit (there one can point to the policy error of becoming too reliant on Russian gas and then oops the Ukraine fiasco of Russia). US core was consistently higher. Decomposition of factors (and then national and sub-national) are necessary for real understanding.
Secundo: the macro-economic rationalisation is frankly econometrically illiterate. Market forces are demand and supply. Excess demand over supply along with excess money supply drive price rises. Excess stimulus to economy in a constrained supply context, sustaining and increasing demand, including significant liquidity injections have always driven inflation – the wonderful Turkish example being a rather extreme non-latin american example. Cting Market forces to me is… well showing poor mastery of the economics, but rather making my point as to the mode of the Democrats – denialism, poopooing etc. which was (and will remain politically toxic).
and so we have an illustrration of part of the problem.
@Jay L Gischer:
Well in fact your losing the election is going to in fact rather more materially make life more difficult – quite aside from any supposed opinions.
Insofar as utterly losing – as the latest numbers suggest will be the House – is a Worse Outcome, one can profitably reflect on defence that does not involve more losing and getting worse.
Or not.
@Jay L Gischer:
It’s also a demonstration of why moderation is doomed to failure. In a just world, trans children would get to undergo a gender affirming puberty at the same appropriate developmental stage as their cisgender peers. But that made transphobes uncomfortable, so the compromise position was to delay their puberty until they reached adulthood.
But that compromise wasn’t good enough. No compromise will ever be good enough. It’s the same thing with trans participation in sports. In every state that has passed a ban on transgender participation in sports, it hasn’t calmed the issue, but inflamed it, drawing a deluge of further legal restrictions on trans people.
There are some issues where compromise is impossible. If one person wants to spend $100 on dinner and one person wants to spend $10, you can compromise on a $30 dinner. If one person wants to go out to dinner and one wants to stay home and eat, then there’s no compromise to be had, only one side capitulating to the other.
Which I guess is my question for all our squishy moderates. What are your hard lines? What are the issues where you’d say “I don’t care if we never win an election again, I won’t compromise on X”? Because I suspect for a lot of you, there are no such issues.
@Lounsbury:
I’m aware. I tagged you, because I think others would benefit from parsing what you are saying. Same with what @The Q is saying. Benefit need not end in agreement.
I understand the inclination to skip your posts, because some have a hard time understanding it. Others do not like the condescension.
I mean, I find your posts more valuable than most. I know I’m in the minority on that, but still. Maybe, one day, I’ll get one or two to change their minds.
@Mimai: Well not only that but the side that is on track to be wiped out of power by losing any majority, national or sub-national is should rather be more motivated reflect on the how of it. I did think Mr Klein was quite interesting in his reflection that the dynamic of not having the loss in Mid-Terms 2022 disguised an error in electoral theory for the Democrats, now having contrary to history the high-propensity voters
A useful reflection given the response of a good fraction of commentariat here is to double down on themselves.
Else@Kurtz i feel I should agree that Reynolds is unlikely to care on an apology, it is a reason I like him even when we disagree, even violently disagree. He has panache.
@Kurtz: ah this is fair, I just wished to be clear that I did not join in everything The Q said – some things yes, others…. maybe not.
in the meantime I see the Corbynesque Trotksyite-type-sensibility fraction is looking forward to more revolutionary wins.
Not seeing how wokeism resulted in spending passed in 2022, which I assume means the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts passed in August 2022, resulting in inflation that peaked in mid-2022 and mostly subsided by June 2023.
@Kurtz:
I mostly skip them because I have neither the inclination nor time to parse Lounsbury’s words or diagram his sentences. He may have valuable contributions to make but his failure to communicate (and yes, it is his failure not mine) greatly reduces the value of his communications.
This! QFE
@Lounsbury: Just as a hypothetical, would you support a policy of “people like Lounsbury should be thrown in jail”? Would you support a policy of “people like Lounsbury should be delayed at airport security, made to miss their flights while being groped”. (This is not an hypothetical example.)
For me, this is not like immigration, which I am thinking Democrats should have taken a page from Bill Clinton’s welfare reform playbook. There should have been a full-throated “let’s do this!” rather than a “we agreed and you stopped it!” which is weak. Propose our own, more palatable and sensible increase in immigration enforcement.
If a large percentage of those seeking asylum are scamming, then let’s beef up the due-process infrastructure, let us give people a swift path to an asylum decision. We don’t change the outcomes.
Even more fun, why don’t we (sigh, why didn’t we) put forward a bill that requires employers nationally to verify citizenship. This is a very dumb and damaging idea, but let the Republicans be the one to shoot it down and/or argue against it.
Agree vehemently that criminals should be tracked down and deported if not jailed.
I would like to see some Mexican-American or Puerto Rican, or maybe even Cuban-American pols endorsing a plan like this.
It doesn’t have to be racist, so let’s forward a policy that isn’t actually racist.
At least, that has the advantage of enforcing existing laws.
@Lounsbury:
Mmm. “Not equipped”? Yep, that’s helpful.
I’m a professional communicator, buddy. If I’m “not understanding” what you wrote, you might, just MIGHT, want to reconsider your babbling, word-stuffed posts that you seem to think make you sound smart but absolutely do not. Are you suggesting that avian flu and the culling of 21 million birds did NOT have an impact on egg prices? If so, I question your economic credentials.
OTB, unusually including the comment threads, has been an island of sanity, and usually civility, through the last several very trying years. I hope that won’t change.
@Lounsbury: “Herasy and apostasy will not be very well welcomed by the Lefty Left fraction.”
Wait — you think those Uni bastards are going to disagree with Q’s common sense reasoning that the Civil Rights Bill should never have been passed? How predictable they are!
The retribution begins: Trump announced that neither Haley nor Pompeo will be joining his administration.
@gVOR10: Agreed. I honestly think this is just post-election lashing out, which is entirely understandable and predictable.
And, to others, not just Lounsbury, who frequently find themselves being “misunderstood,” maybe some introspection is in order. Perhaps it’s not that everyone else is a dolt. Maybe, just maybe, it’s the tone, word choice, and prose of posts that could use some examination and revision.
@Lounsbury:
It’s heresy, dear boy, not “herasy.”
As an afterthought, in some ways it would be easy to appeal to the working class. All you have to do is promise them stuff, you dont have to actually deliver. It doesnt even have to be remotely possible. However, I dont think Dems should stop to the badmouthing of minority groups of any kind. That is clearly part of the appeal Trump has generated and his party promotes but I have to hope you can win elections without doing that. Biden and Obama did that.
Steve
@Lounsbury:
Well count me in as one who fails to understand your babbling ( which by this point means I just skip reading anything you writet. Honestly I tried to decode your comments by first ignoring the invectives and thesaurus ( use of “big” words when plain language is more useful) overuse.
Maybe you have a useful point to make but your sentence structure makes it painful to try to decipher. It’s been suggested that English may not be your native language, and I’ve tried to accommodate, to no avail.
So a suggestion, attempt to comment in a manner that the majority can understand the point of your comment.
Have a pleasant day.
@Lounsbury:
Well count me in as one who fails to understand your babbling ( which by this time means I just skip reading anything you write. Honestly I tried to decode your comments by first ignoring the invectives and thesaurus ( use of “big” words when plain language is more useful) overuse.
Maybe you have a useful point to make but your sentence structure makes it painful to try to decipher. It’s been suggested that English may not be your native language, and I’ve tried to accommodate, to no avail.
So a suggestion, attempt to comment in a manner that the majority can understand the point of your comment.
Have a pleasant day.
@just nutha: Lounsbury has said, I think on this forum, that he works in a profession that demands he speak and write like this. I think he’s likely right about that.
And this confirms the idea that most people who behave abusively have been abused themselves and are passing it on.
The only way I can see to stop or slow this down is for people who have been abused to recognize what’s happening and not pass it on.
Everyone wants to be Darth Vader, and considers that Palpatine didn’t win is what makes it fiction.
@Lounsbury:
Meanwhile under Starmer:
Hundreds of trans people in UK are being denied hormone replacement therapy by GPs, report finds
Whether they’re going to be forcibly detransitioned by Tories or by Labour acting like Tories doesn’t ultimately matter as much to trans people as so many neoliberals seem to think it will.
The real problem is that all the squishy moderates want us to keep doing the same failed strategy we’ve been on worldwide for a quarter century now: people vote for neoliberals promising change, but they’re too busy seeking “compromise” to actually get anything done, far right groups use the lack of action to attack progressives who aren’t in power at all, the voters empower the far right, and rather owning their failure, the neoliberals join the far right in their attack on the left and claim this proves we need to just compromise even harder.
Contrary to MR, Lounsbury, Andy, et al. this election wasn’t a repudiation of the left. It was a repudiation of them and their lukewarm moderate BS.
@Jen:
I agree that this is important, but I’m not sure how to put it into practice and would love for you to expand on the point as a political pro. For example, does this mean I should preferentially vote in the primary/support with donations the white male candidate over the equally or more attractive (to me) non-white male candidate? This is a serious question for me. It feels terrible to abandon my values, but even more terrible to risk never moving toward them by holding them too dearly.
@Scott:
I, too, have lived as a stranger amongst these people.
Why the bitterness? IMO, it’s twofold.
First, because like a spoiled toddler in line at the grocery, they want more.
Secondly, the fact that others have some of what they want enrages them — “but I want that! You can’t have any!!!” Wah!!!!
Or then again, maybe this backslid Missouri Synod Luddite’s mindset is more on being the person my neighbors (and society?) need, and less on being the monster they deserve.
@Mimai:
Maybe this is what you meant by the last few lines.
I feel compelled to point out that contempt for the Left is much older, historically. A long-term, multi-pronged effort has left that contempt deeply engrained.
Meaning, it is the default; it is normative. So, regardless of what side one is in this conversation, we should probably recognize that there is a lot of unexplored context.
@Jay L Gischer:
That does not seem like much of a reason to keep using sneering pejoratives like “bobo.” I find that even more off-putting than talk about smug elitists, which also I find not a stimulus to engaging.
@Jay L Gischer:
In Luddite’s case, 3 years in prison and an equal amount of time in therapy helped. Some.
Having stared up out of the depths of the abyss at humanity (& as tempting as being Grendel’s parent is), today I say “no.”
Frankly, I’m envious of people who don’t know that struggle. They’re a mystery to me, but I envy them.
So, I have a bunch of work to get through. Just gonna pop in for a second, see what people are chatting about. Just gonna scroll up. . . ah, shit.
OK. I am not a college grad, or even a HS grad, but when I was both, however briefly, I was a stellar test-taker. Very good at getting the right answer. And also knew it did not matter, because the test may put me in the top tier in math, but I know better. There are species of fungi better at math than I am. I have no ability at math, but I’m great at getting the right answer.
Point One: Getting the right answer when you have no ability to use said answer, is not very useful. Much the same in politics: It does not matter if you are right, but powerless to use your ‘correct answer.’
Apply this to the transgender issue. You may be absolutely right that kids at puberty have a right to essentially choose their gender. You may also be right that trans-women have a right to compete in women’s sports. But if you think you can easily overturn literally a million years of thinking of gender as a fixed feature of life, plus argue that one divorced parent can be automatically right to take one position on a child changing genders, plus argue that a 6’2″ ripped former male has a right to compete against 5’2′ girls, plus bully anyone who doesn’t instantly adopt a new way of speaking and writing, you may have the right answer. But you will not be able to put it into effect.
So, what is your correctness worth? Not a damn thing. But in a political party over-focused on academia where one is rewarded for correct answers, regardless of applicability, no one ever tells you that your score on the Big Test doesn’t fucking matter.
Which brings me to Point Two: Every battle takes a toll in time, energy and resources, so pick your battles. Liberals have become disconnected from, even contemptuous of, military history. Which is a shame, because if you study military history you quickly see just how many wars have been lost because of generals and political leaders who don’t know when to fight and when to hold their fire.
Was it right for Churchill to try and force the Bosphorous despite a ring of zeroed-in Turk artillery? No. And it led directly to Gallipoli, where Aussie troops which might have been put to good use, were wasted. Sticking with Churchill, was it wise to fight for Greece against the Nazis? No, it was fucking stupid and squandered priceless resources of men and materiel that could have been used to good effect. Did the Greeks deserve to defeat the Nazis? Yes. Not the point.
Don’t fight battles you’re going to lose, just because you think it’s the right thing. The inevitable counter is, Civil Rights. Which misses the point that MLK et al picked the right time for a fight. Nat Turner picked the wrong time. The cause was unquestionably just, but all Turner managed to do was alarm the planters who passed even more restrictive laws and doubled up on militia. MLK saw that the time was right, that the battle could be won, because the issue had reached critical mass in terms of public support.
Point Three: Words are tools, they are not magic. Pretending that they are magic, annoys friends and strengthens enemies, and all for no purpose. I used the word ‘retard’ on Twitter, in the context of saying that sanctions on Russia would retard their economic development. And took the immediate blowback. There is the N-word, but just the N-word, because there is no civil way to use the word in the current context. So, should it be expunged from Huckleberry Finn? No, FFS, because Mark Twain is smarter than some random librarian, he knew WTF he was doing, he knew how and why he was using the word.
But beyond the N-word? Stop trying to appropriate the unique Black experience and repurpose it endlessly. Retard is not the N-word. Neither is bitch, or tranny, or midget, or Indian, or Latino. Enough with the silly neologisms and lists of forbidden words. Changing ‘homeless’ to ‘unhoused’ does not get a single homeless person off the street and into an apartment.
Point Four: There is no such thing as a Person of Color. There are Black people (and sub-groups), there are Indians (and subgroups), there are Mexicans and Salvadorans who are not Cubans or Brazilians. There are no ‘Asians,’ there are Chinese (and multiple sub-groups) and there are Japanese and Malaysians and Thais and Vietnamese and there is not a damn thing uniting them except that White people see slanted eyes and don’t know history or geography.
Point Five: Lose the hair shirt. Did you own slaves? No? Me neither. In fact my people (well…) were slaves more recently than Black Americans. See: Nazi slave labor. Should you be appalled at the treatment this country has dished out to Black people? Duh. Obviously. If you don’t find slavery and Jim Crow horrible well, you’re a horrible person. But the breast-beating, the apologies, the shame in your own White skin, your denigration of any accomplishment a White person may have made, are nothing but narcissism. Your feels are just not all that important.
There is nothing uniquely awful about White people. Every race has its monsters. From Genghis to Idi Amin, every race has horrible shit in their past. American Indians like the Iroquois nation who we all admire for living in balance with nature? Really, really good at torture, and really effective militarily at conquering other tribes, sometimes genocidally.
Nor is there anything uniquely horrible about the United States. Yes, we ethnically cleansed Indians, and yes we enslaved Blacks, we have some horrible things in our national history. But unique? Not even a little. England? Spain? Japan? Assyria? Russia? I mean, we’re in there, but we are not unique.
Point Six: I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken. You do not possess the revealed truth. If you believe in science, and we all at least pretend to, you believe in falsifiability. You may be wrong. A little humility is helpful. (Mea culpa on that last one.)
Final Point: Good and evil exist. Work for good. Oppose evil. Do it intelligently and effectively, like you mean to prevail. Like you really mean to defend the weak and feed the hungry and shelter the homeless and treat the sick. Gain some understanding of strategy and tactics, learn flexibility, compromise. Learn that half a loaf is a hell of a lot better than no loaf. If you can’t be humble (again, mea culpa) at least learn to fake it.
That’s my sermon for Sunday.
@Erik: This is a good, and fair, question. Mostly what I’m getting at here is that the primary process on the Democratic side seems to calcify positions, rather than allowing it to inform the differing approaches. Here’s a hypothetical. Let’s say that the 2028 primary surfaces the following candidates: Gavin Newsom, John Fetterman, and Pete Buttigieg. All good Democrats. All with different experience levels and backgrounds, and generally different areas of the country. However, they are all white males. Since two of the last three Democratic presidential candidates have been women, I’m guessing this slate of choices would rankle.
In 2016, Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents made up 55% of the non-voting (but eligible to vote) population. This next bit is extrapolation, but my guess/hunch is that at least some of those were Sanders supporters who were still furious that Clinton got the nomination, and sat out the election because she was “a corporate shill”/”no different than Trump”/etc. (I know several voters who straight-up admit this was the case for them, but I’m in New England so understand I have a higher exposure to Sanders’ supporters just by being next to Vermont.)
Purity of purpose is a laudable goal. But adhering to principles when there’s so much at stake isn’t wise. You have to win in order to enact your policies. Sitting in the nosebleed seats with one’s principles intact isn’t going to protect vulnerable populations.
ETA: You should vote for who you want in the primary. That’s the point of having them. But allowing an affection for a primary candidate to overwhelm the opportunity to consider the winning primary candidate…that’s a problem.
@Jen: Concur with your assessment. If I can impose on your time a little more: in your hypothetical dem matchup, do I support Fetterman because he presents more blue collar, isn’t gay, isn’t a “Calisocialist” and is from PA, even though I might think (all hypothetically, I haven’t considered their relative merits beyond this post) Buttigieg has far better ideas or Newsom far better experience? I think in this analysis I do, but curious about your thoughts
ETA after your ETA: thanks that clears things up a lot. I’m 100% behind supporting the candidate you have not the one you wish you had
@Jay L Gischer:
For his butchery of the English language alone, I have to say yes.
@The Q:
I read parts of your racist, unhinged, tantruming meltdown to my white psuedo-boyfriend. Between laughs, we both wondered how an angry, hateful, antiblack, antiwoke viper like you could with a straight face accuse someone else of being bitter. Physician: heal thyself.
Life is working out fine for me actually. I’m in a very fun interracial situationship with a very wonderful white guy, have many loving and wonderful white friends (will soon be enjoying brunch with them), am financially secure, happy, and live in a wealthy blue city in a wealthy blue state.
Because I stand to inherit from my hardworking parents — an upwardly-mobile, Georgia-based military couple descended from American slaves — in retirement I will be economically safe. I am especially proud of my dad, who worked his way up despite never attending college. The American dream personified.
If America were to turn full fascist, I am blessed to have friends in European cities who will take me and mine in.
So I’m fine.
You, on the other hand, don’t seem to be doing too well. You woke up obsessing over and raging about me, a stranger from internet who does not care about you at all. You seem to be on the verge of a psychotic break. Maybe lay off the meth?
Unlike “working class” Trump voters, I’m not now and never will be reliant on Obamacare, Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid.
They have not hurt me at all by letting rightwing manosphere resentment, bigotry, and fearmongering manipulate them into voting for a wannabe-dictator whose oligarch friends will slash their benefits and crash their economy while giving me and my wealthy family a tax cut we don’t need.
Stupid, unevolved, low vibration people like you tend to overreact to any one election result they don’t like.
Smart people like me know better. The thing about elections is you win some, you lose some. When the general zeitgeist is more about culture war grievance than economic results — when the public is drunk on resentment — there is not much Democrats can do about that except wait for the winds to blow the other way. Which they will, has anyone who’s been around for more than a couple of decades should know.
American Democrats are not responsible for a global anti-incumbency panic (that, by the way, just saw woke liberalism swept into power in the UK).
Yes, racism and sexism played a role in the Democrats black woman Standard Bearing losing in swing states where Democratic Senate candidates almost all won with the same electorate.
No, Democrats did not abandon the working class; some working class men abandoned Democrats this year because Democrats remain focused on real issues like housing and healthcare, refusing to light their long-term prospects on fire for the short-term electoral gain of catering to nonsense about transgender aliens getting sex changes in prison, or Haitians eating cats and dogs.
No, I will not be apologizing to anyone.
Yes, things are working out great for me on this beautiful sunny Sunday in Los Angeles. I suggest you get a grip, go outside, touch grass, and do the same.
Or you can just go to hell.
@Jay L Gischer:
Is he the one who writes impenetrable technobabble for Star Trek?
There are very, very few professions that do not value an ability to communicate ideas.
@Stormy Dragon:
It was a repudiation of inflation.
There are no grand lessons to be learned about whether the Democrats need to be more fervently leftist or should adopt Clinton Era triangulation to appeal to the middle. It does not prove or disprove anyone’s pet peeve unless their pet peeve is that working class people should like inflation because their debts become smaller compared to their buying power.
@DK:
Bravo.
@Kurtz:
Oh, don’t get me wrong, I am well aware of the contempt for the left. I was raised in such a household. I don’t know if it is older, historically, but I trust your word.
I do think the current contempt (using as a catchall term) for the left is different than that for the right. And, thus, the impact is different. Understanding that impact is essential and requires true perspective-taking.
People are understandably resistant to this. Unexplored context indeed. Unfortunately, context has been made scandalous.
@The Q:
Actually, and unfortunately, many voters have allowed themselves to be manipulated by and distracted by this kind stupid white victimhood propaganda — just as you have. They’re explicitly not seeing through the garbage.
Exactly 0% of this has anything to do with the Democratic Party platform or was the focus of any Democratic campaign. Not Kamala Harris’s, nor the swing state Democrats who succeeded in the same places and with the same voters where her campaign failed. The Biden-Harris administration passed a whole bill increasing police funding. Y’all love to blame Democrats for your failure to pay attention, for your endless ability to be brainwashed by rightwing bullshit.
Stop projecting your racist, homophobic, transphobic obsessions and traumas onto the Democrats. Democrats are running ads about housing and healthcare. Stop blaming and smearing Democrats because you’re too much of a dumb bigot to see that what Republicans say Democrats are focused on is not what Democrats are actually focused on.
Given that the Democrats are more reliant than ever on black voters, they would be smart to ignore lying, racist scumbags like you.
(P.S. When people call you racist, they’re not saying all white people are racist. They’re saying you are racist. Because you clearly are.)
What happens to the felony convictions against Trump in NY? I assume the sentencing will be literally nothing, but I can’t see how the convictions themselves go away. He can’t pardon himself, and I would think in order to get a pardon from the governor, he would have to admit guilt.
I’m assuming that the civil judgment for E Jean Carroll stands. Is there any possibility that Trump says screw that, I’m no paying? What would happen in that case?
Personally, I thought Reynolds comment took the thread. The rest is light by comparison.
For those bashing Biden’s COVID economic relief…
When one suffers the infirmities of old age, the joke is that they are bad…unless you consider the alternative.
When you consider the inflationary impact of COVID economic relief (imperfect as they may have been in you view), please consider the alternative.
Under Biden’s presidency, no one starved and people were employed and often moved to better jobs. The biggest economic impact of COVID will be, in my view, experienced in the future as some students who had to learn from home will fail thrive post-high school graduation.
Amazing how selectively memory works. For some people, defund the police (went nowhere, no one of political significance has raised the idea in years) and BLM (somebody had harsh words about structural racism, and demonstrated in order to say it) looms larger in their minds than two other developments from the same time period, a million Americans dead from COVID and the 1/6 insurrection.
@The Q:
The reality is that the bulk of the spending was focused on job creation and wage growth, and it succeeded at both. And in 2022, when inflation was much worse than now, Democrats got a great election result, flipping a Senate seat and fighting Republicans to a draw in the House.
Sometimes you win elections, sometimes you lose them. Throwing out baby and bathwater because of one election is what unintelligent people do. Democrats need to stay tough and smart. And woke.
@The Q:
Imagine waking up on a Sunday morning utterly consumed with angry white grievance, coming here to rage against Democrats with white victimhood and crime stats straight out of a KKK newsletter, then claiming Democrats are the ones focused on “identity politics” lolol.
Irony is well and truly dead.
Yes, Democrats have remained focused on real issues like housing and healthcare, and completely lost touch with the way many working class voters, especially men, have been radicalized by Trump’s focus on identitarian-based grievances and resentment. No argument there.
Fortunately, this did not affect Democrats’s winning Senate bids in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and elsewhere. Democrats should stay focused on real issues so they can be prepared when coming Trump Republican assaults on Social Security Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, and cheap farm and construction labor send the working class running leftward for sanity.
@Lounsbury:
Lounsbury says:
Sunday, 10 November 2024 at 09:04
Agree.
The above struck out text interferes with your very good points.
1. I don’t hear anyone minimizing the impact, but I do hear people expressing frustration that the people most impacted were not aware that the Fed had cooled the Keynesian stimulus impact back to normal.
2. I would submit that long-term recessions are political poison, too. THAT was avoided.
I don’t hear anyone saying this in this particular group.
Agree with the last sentence 100%.
I believe that the threat of a long-term world-wide recession was much greater than you apparently believe.
I believe Biden was a effective as he could be with the lack of bi-partianship in our current political environment.
I haven’t heard anyone make this argument in this forum, Lounsbury.
1. It is inappropriate to use the word “austistic” in this context in American culture.
2. I don’t think we’re saying that people were too stupid to realize it. Rather I think people are frustrated with the inability to communicate that inflation had been tamped down to pre-COVID levels by the Fed.
I believe this is an unfair assessment and comes across as “judgey.” Fox and other media outlets (left and right) are biased, but the far-right has espoused untruths for decades now that are undermining public confidence in public institutions and democracy.
@DK: “You seem to be on the verge of a psychotic break.”
You don’t have to worry about the Q. He always sounds like that.
@Gustopher: “There are very, very few professions that do not value an ability to communicate ideas.”
To be fair, there are segments of government and academia where an entire style of writing has sprung up which exists to obscure meaning as much as possible. (Try reading a little contemporary literary theory, to start…)
Of course that would make no sense in the field that Lounsbury claims, since in the world of buying and selling it’s necessary to understand if the message is “buy” or “sell.”
@Skookum:
This. The 2024 presidential election was no more a referendum on inflation than the 2022 election Democrats essentially won during a worse pricing environment. What voters say motivates them is often not what actually motivates them.
That’ll be clear next summer when, without any significant drop in prices, we’ll witness Trump, media left and right, and working class voters all start saying how great the economy is, never acknowledging it’s Uncle Joe’s economy.
This same Biden economy we can’t say is decent (since acknowledging data is to be a condescending, out-of-touch wokester) will become history’s greatest overnight after Trump starts tweeting “JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!” every day.
And those sticking to the delusion that working class voters are rational, pragmatic and transactional — not voting on vibes, resentment, bias, and bigotries — will go along with it.
If you want to know why the presidential election went as is it did, plot the reasons why Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Ruben Gallego, abortion referenda, and minimum wage hikes won 50-60% the vote in same places Harris lost.
That’s the story of the 2024 presidential election, and why Dems should not overreact to and self-flagellate over the result — aside from legitimate fears of Trump’s fascist tendencies.
@Kingdaddy: Indeed.
@wr: I am not a vulgar bourse trader my dear, you have no understanding of my profession.
@Skookum: the alternatives were different and the political choice an entirely different issue.
But as you all rather autistically are blindered on these subjects, no expectation that the difference shall be made. (the economic policy choices are also not binary, nor was the choice starvation, but that is quite another subject)
@Michael Reynolds: The Battles, losing
The point I have often made is there is a fraction of the Left that is locked into a mentalité worthy of the General command of France of WWI – that proper élan and the sheer rightness of cause will allow one to push through the maxim gun. The phrase a Bridge Too Far is another evocation as well.
@Jen:
Yes yes, the messanger is always to be shot or the arch pretences for messages unwanted.
Hi everyone, I’ll have a much longer comment later, but for right now, I have a couple of questions to ask. I am asking these in honest good faith. I am trying to understand something and I don’t think I’ve seen this asked, so, maybe I’ll make this my project. Before I get into it, please don’t crap on anyone who comments. I would be particularly honored if Dr. Joyner, Dr. Taylor, Lounsbury, The Q, Jack, Jay and Reynolds would answer. Jay and Reynolds if you could let a couple other answer before you I’d appreciate it. Also, whatever your answer is, please don’t say, “I don’t know”. That’s the only unhelpful answer. Ok, the question is:
Where do you think Trans people come from. Or put a slightly different way, what causes people to be Trans.
If I can ask one more question of @Lounsbury: , again, I am seriously asking and in good faith. What do you mean by lefty left (or whatever your prefered construction is)
@Skookum:
It’s rare that a political party gets rewarded for doing the hard, necessary work during hard times — people remember things being hard. I would say never, except for FDR, and I expect there are other examples that I don’t know about or which just slip my mind.
And, with a lot of rapid change, even if people come out ahead, they feel a lot of uncertainty and many react badly. They want simple, reassuring answers, even if those answers are bullshit, so they can feel safe.
As far as the kids who got video schooling… that’s going to be a big problem going forward.
@Gustopher:
That. Thank you. FDR was really lucky. The Depression started in 1929 and he wasn’t inaugurated until 1933. Hoover got all the blame. Obama got reelected, but he was widely blamed for conditions he inherited. So was Biden. The beginning of inflation was visible in January of ’21. But he was prez when most of it became visible. We now have a pattern of Dems inheriting shitty conditions, recovering, and GOPs being elected by blaming Ds for the problems. Rinse and repeat. If we’re lucky and have fair elections in ’26 and ’28.
@DK:
While I get what you are getting at here, it doesn’t explain the strong anti-incumbent outcomes throughout the rest of the Western Democracies(TM). I think it’s a combination of things — a strong headwind because of inflation, further difficulties with our candidate being a Black woman, all at the same time as the Republicans being so amazingly repellant that the others almost don’t matter.
The Harris campaign was generally excellent, and I don’t think anyone else could have done as well under the circumstances (which includes the Blackness and womanhood of the candidate, inflation, wage growth, uncertainty because of so much rapid change, trans people existing and wanting to live their lives, etc.).
But, longer term, we are losing young white men — the right wing manosphere offers a (vile) story while the left doesn’t have much of anything. And we are having problems with unions (see the Teamsters this year) at the same time unions themselves are having problems.
And just as a candidate will have to coddle the early primary states to get the nomination, we also have to coddle young white men, at least enough that they feel like they are included. It’s just what has to get done with the current structure of things.
@Michael Reynolds:
I agree that words are not magic. I agree that one should be mindful of how one’s approach impacts others — the converted and the to-be converted. I agree that simple word changes do not, in and of themselves, fix the stickiest of social ills.
I have a different perspective on the “all for no purpose” part of your sermon. One purpose of such word changes is to reduce harm. For example, many of these words cause and exacerbate emotional hurt. It seems to me that reducing this hurt is pretty damn honorable as a purpose.
And one need not pick one approach or the other, ie, work to fix the social ill or to reduce the individual hurt. Both and.
That said, if one pursues the latter in a repellant manner, it might negatively impact progress on the former. But it doesn’t have to. They can co-exist. And even synergize.
@Gustopher:
You do get that it doesn’t really work this way because their buying power shrinks as inflation progresses, right? Then again, bankruptcy reform didn’t benefit the credit industry as much as was hoped, either. As one of my teaching colleagues noted to his econ classes, making debt more difficult to discharge doesn’t affect people who can’t pay their debts.
@Lounsbury:
C’mon. Don’t crap out on me, Lounsbury.
First of all, I believe even among conservatives it is inappropriate to use a medical conditions as a slur. I really need to know if you know this and refuse to stop using it as a slur, because I am trying at my end to bridge the communication gap.
Second, I am tempted to believe YOU don’t know the difference if your can’t explain your thoughts better than to say that the general audience in this group is incapable of understanding you.
I realize that some of the comments today were hurtful, but I have hope that we all can work together to better understand each other.
@The Q:
Is Mr. Reynolds not a whitey? I think he’s as white as I am, which is pretty white. Not quite “glow in the dark” white, but pretty white.
The Trump tax cuts expanded the money supply by far more than the pig product stimulation, and where purely monetary causes are considered, had much more of an inflationary effect.
The bulk of the inflation was caused by the supply chain irregularities, and companies then realizing that people are willing to spend more on toilet paper if they have to, and leaving the prices high.
But what are your “disinflationary policies”? Just stand around and watch as American families get further behind?
@The Q:
Palm Beach County, where I live and is a democratic stronghold in Florida, Trump came within less than 6,000 votes from coming out on top. In 2016, H Clinton carried the county by over 100,000 votes and Biden carried it in 2020 by just under 100,000.
Forgive me if the figures are slightly off. I’m typing this from my cellphone and I can’t find the Palm Beach Post article with the exact figures.
@Bill Jempty:
I think this can be explained by Republicans selling Florida as the “freedom state”. It’s a lie like all their others, but the weather is better down there than in Illinois and they hide how they tax things so it looks good. I can’t tell you how many clients I’ve had that look me dead in the eye and tell me they are leaving cause it’s freer. I look them dead in the eye and tell them it’s illegal for me to pee or use my driver’s license down there. /shrug
@Gustopher: Unfortunately our woke crowd failed to prioritize disinflationary policy and instead spent much of 2022 looking for ways to pass the spending demanded by Democratic interest groups. As a result of this pork laden stimulus, prices were too high, and the Federal Reserve bore the brunt of fighting inflation through raising interest rates.
The Republicans have passed three major tax cuts since 1980, and those tax cuts are responsible for almost all of the $36 trillion debt. When Republicans pass tax cuts they don’t do jackshit about spending. Often they increase spending, saying don’t worry, the tax cuts will pay for themselves. I don’t know which of the commenters produced the above comment, but if they blame only the Democrats for out-of-control spending, either they haven’t been paying attention for the last 45 years or they are lying.
I think it’s hard to say anything useful about what’s happening with young white men, or any demographic for that matter, without having some exposure to what they’re listening to. Some of the narratives currently in circulation reach a wider audience, just because of the megaphones that are X, Fox News, and other outlets. For example, Musk approvingly publishing the argument that popular democracy should be replaced by the rule of high-status males made The Guardian, at least, and probably other mass news sources.
Even if some of these outlets are widely available, such as Joe Rogan’s or Steve Bannon’s podcasts, it’s still a major ask for someone to have the time and patience to listen to it. I’m always appreciative of anyone who takes on the task of listening and summarizing this content.
Other channels of communication are even more demanding. On Threads, rightwingwatchdotorg follows what the Christian Dominionists and white nationalists (Lance Wallnau, Nick Fuentes, etc.) are saying. If you want to look more internationally, accounts like juliadavisnews follow sources outside the US (in Davis’ case, Russian television).
But it takes work, even to follow these summaries. This is one of the many costs imposed by the fragmented Splinternet that has replaced the shared media sources on which most Americans used to rely. Not only do you have to know where to find these sources, but you have to take the time to absorb all that’s being said.
@Gustopher:
I see what you mean, and your broad point is wise and smart, per usual.
But just to be snarky after the bottomless mimosas I just had, who is we? I’m not coddling anybody. And frankly, I think Democrats’ tendency towards effete, namby-pamby tongue swallowing is a turnoff to male voters of all ages.
I’ve said it before — voters respect and reward strength, even when they disagree. It’s about style. The Democrats’ admirable desire to offend no one is also stylistically unattractive, especially to men. If I had my druthers, Democrats would cut the focused-grouped campaign language, start calling spades spades, and stop apologizing for doing so. This is what the Lincoln Project guys get that traditional liberals do not; but like me, those guys are former Republicans.
When Biden went on Charlemagne tha God’s podcast in 2020 and said of black Trumpers, “You ain’t black,” the consultant class took to the fainting couch. But it didn’t hurt him with black voters. Why? Because we agreed. He told the unvarnished truth.
With the caveat that women candidates cannot get away Bidenisms and Trumpisms, maybe Hillary would’ve gotten more mileage out the deplorables brouhaha by responding, “I said what I said: half of Trump voters are deplorable ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.” Harris would have benefitted from bluntly saying, “Of course we’re better off now — Trump left the economy in absolute shambles,” and “I would’ve moved much much faster than President Biden on marijuana legalization, pushing for the bipartisan border bill Trump killed, and calling out Netanyahu for undermining ceasefire efforts.”
Instead, we let them see us duck, run, hide. I don’t think voters want that kind of weakness in a commander-in-chief. Hillary’s strongest moment in 2016 was calling Trump a Putin-puppet to his face. She should’ve called him a rapist too.
So I roll my eyes at anti-Trumpers here wringing their hands about Trump being called nicknames. I mean, really. There is no better time than now to diminish the would-be authoritarian with silly name-calling. One of the reasons Trump plays well with a certain type of voter is because of his disregard for such niceties. Meanwhile, Democrats are too scared of offending people to tell voters this historically great economy is historically great. Weak af.
I will continue to call racists racist and garbage garbage. And if the reaction of those barely getting by on the Medicaid that Democrats got them is to cut off their noses, good luck to them. I’m a couponer, know where to find cheap eggs. I’ll be at brunch with my white male lover.
House Fast Tracks Bill That Would Give Trump Power to Target Nonprofits
I assume the power starts on Jan 20th, and sunsets in the moment a Democrat is in the White House. I don’t know if institutions like the military would support a Trump dictatorship, but the Republican party would set up a nazi regime if Trump wanted.
@DK: I appreciate your posts here today.
@Lucysfootball:
Trump is lazy and incompetent at actually running things. My fear is the Republican Party will set up an oligarchic autocracy working through or around Trump. As I may have said here once or twice, it ain’t just Trump.
Republicans have long been the party of defunding the police.
Republicans have defunded the IRS longer than I’ve been alive…. because they want police to both be afraid and not have the cash to pay their staff to enforce white collar crime.
As well, the IRS is one of few police tasked with investigating the election corruption beat, and Republicans have always thought elections should be as corrupt as possible.
After all, elections are only fraudulent if Republicans don’t win!
Thanks for all of your comments. I can take DKs hits, though I find it ironic when he says, I don’t know him, so I shouldn’t make any judgments on his character and then a few paragraphs later calls me a KKK racist without knowing me. My friend, you have no idea of my background. Also, I thoroughly enjoyed the incredibly erudite, insightful, rebuttal by liberal capitalist, that I should fuck off and die.
As for the ridiculous assumptions that I don’t think the Civil War should’ve been fought, or I am against the civil rights movement – again flatulent nonsense.
Let me make my position clear. I hate the Republican party and I think one of the greatest things that could be done is to abolish them outright if at all possible (it isn’t of course). Trump should’ve been executed a long time ago. Merrick Garland bears a huge brunt for the tragic outcome of this election.
The goal of elections is to win not to make yourself feel good. You have to get the power to get things done. I want the Democrats to destroy the republican party and we did have that power during the New Deal, Fair Deal, New Frontier, Great Society era when from 1932 – 1992 the Dems owned the House for 56 of those years and the Senate 48.
That hegemony was earned, and it changed the history of the world. And the backbone of that coalition were the very people that you shit on, spit on and despise – the working class shitheels “that are too dumb to see through Trump”, or “my neighbor drives an SUV so he has no right to complain about economic conditions.”
My point is simple – most of you just don’t get it and never will, and this group thought will condemn the Democratic party to minority status unless you wake the fuck up. But you won’t.
You’ll cry over the silly trans issues that affect an infinitesimal part of the population, and take up way too much of our political capital or defend the right of men on chemicals to compete against biological woman, and feel that the world will come to an end, unless everybody accepts that absurd position.
The endless badgering that rising crime and illegal immigration is a myth, and that statistics show crime is going down just doesn’t hold water for people that realize “why report a crime when it’s not going to be pursued.” Just look at my city, Los Angeles where LAPD will not respond unless a club or a gun is wielded by an unhoused meth freak about ready to assault you.
And yet LAPD shows a slight reduction in crime yet no Angelino believes the legitimacy of these stats, but some of my deluded Democrats posting here take it as gospel that Trump is putting fear in everybody about criminals. He doesn’t need to – the criminals have already done it.
The good news, the silver lining to all of this is in two years we have a chance to fight back and convince some of you dolts that if we follow your flawed thinking we will surely lose again.
Bernie hit it squarely with his critique “why are we surprised that working class voters deserted us when we deserted them.” The only voice of reason who is ostracized by the party leadership. I’ve spoken to many who would have voted for him instead of the vote they gave Trump this election.
@The Q:
Well, nothing like a transphobic comment to show you’re not prejudiced.
@Beth:
My first guess is DNA. I wonder about my daughter, and like every parent I go back over my parenting – not in self-recrimination, but out of curiosity. We thought she was gay, did not get the trans thing. As always I think we are formed by our DNA and our environment, as modified by free will and random chance. So, I imagine it’s genetic, probably with some environmental factors, and the expression of it is of course her free will in action.
I know this: my daughter is more centered, more okay with herself than she was ten or even five years ago. With the two most rootless parents in the world, she’s putting down roots, part of a community, and has a girlfriend who we are to meet at Thanksgiving. She was just down here – we cleaned out a storage locker and watched Taskmaster. She’s quite a kind, thoughtful person, and we’re very proud of her, despite her inexplicable (?) hatred of Vegas.
My niece (ex nephew) is interesting in that no one who has met this kid doubts her gender change.
She’s young, like Freshman in HS IIRC. I know she’s been crying since Tuesday, but I’m not involved in her life, so I have nothing much to say about her. Her parents are good people, doing their best to help her. I believe she’s about to start meds.
We know two other parents of trans young adults, one I don’t know much about, and the other situation is a bit of a nightmare.
I’m glad to see you here, @Beth: last time you were saying some worrying things.
@The Q:
I did not. Seriously, are you on drugs? You are fond of making things up about me, just like you’re fond of making things up about the Democratic Party. You called me, a former McCain Republican, a “black radical” and then spewed a bunch of deranged Fox News white grievance.
My response did not say you shouldn’t lie about me. You are welcome to expose how vile you are. Go right ahead.
Every other election dumb, childish hysterics start bleating about permanent majorities and permanent minorities. Puh-lease. Dems lost the presidential popular vote by 2.5%, retained all but one of their swing state senate seats, and are looking at a status quo House result. Yeah, let’s self-immolate and burn the whole party down. Get a grip.
You think you’re entitled to your own set of facts, so you’re incensed Democrats won’t lie about crime data, like you and Trump.
You want Democrats to help you and Trump bash trans Americans; you’re furious Democrats are instead focused on housing and healthcare.
No matter how times you lie about it, no, Democrats are not focused on or passing laws on trans issues. Because you are now totally under the spell of MAGA media, you are one consumed by and crying over trans issues — not Democrats.
You should stop projecting your MAGA psychosis and bigoted obsessions onto others. But you won’t. Because like Trumpers, you are incapable of being honest or facing facts.
Democrats will not be joining you all in your angry, dark sunken place of grievance, bitterness, hate, and resentment. It profiteth a man nothing to gain the world and lose his soul.
As to Bernie, God bless him, but he lost two primaries by millions of votes because he couldn’t expand his appeal . His acolytes aren’t swing jurisdictions. They have such a pulse on working class voters, where are the Berniebros representing working class purple seats and states?
Oh.
@Kingdaddy:
Dankeschön. I appreciate you 🙂
@Kathy:
“Obsessing over trans kids and their families is how we lower the price of eggs.”
– The Non-Democrats In Touch With Working Class Economic Anxiety
@Skookum: there is no slur going on, autism is a condition and failure to process communication. It runs extensively, medically, in my paternal family, and my closest paternal cousins – what I do not subscribe to is the American university graduates magical fetish of avoiding words, relabeling in ever more elaborate euphamisms
so yes, you lot have an autistic communications problem. Said by this fellow whose dear cousins are autistic. Medically not self-diagnosed fashionable American preening, proper medical.
the word properly describes something and as Reynolds noted, treating words as magic is part of your problem – including the priggish lecutring about proper words, which illustrates much of your problem.
Anyway, while I am sad to see Trump inflicted on the world and rest of us, from what I see it is sadly a needed and shock to you all.
@DK:
The most recent estimates I have seen say after the last votes get counted maybe 1.5%.
@Lounsbury: “you have no understanding of my profession.”
Now that’s something we can both agree on!
@Beth: “I think this can be explained by Republicans selling Florida as the “freedom state”.”
They are certainly free from some things… like education and homeowners’ insurance.
@Lounsbury:
Well, I’m sorry to read this response. It’s full of anger and empty of any serious attempt to communicate.
I wouldn’t get to cozy with using genetic and medical conditions as slurs. It the first step in designating people as Other. As you may–or not–recall Hitler exterminated autistic people.
@Skookum: Anger?
How very bizarre.
Bluntness is not anger, although I suppose in American Uni land with “micro aggressions” this is “anger” if one does not convert to your mode of expression as dictated by your specific sensibilities.
But regardless I see the only acceptable thing is Conversion to your modes rather again part of your problems leading to losing.
(and as I am carrier of the risk genes in question… well quite passing odd to think of this as a ‘slur’ but in hyper sensitive America I suppose the idea of self-slurring is à la mode. It rather goes to your problems in my opinion)
And my dear fellow, Americans have on place to lecture persons outre-Atlaintique about happenings on our side. The various parts of my family melangé were and hardly Hitlerian compatible. So I would advise keeping American preachiness to your side.
@Lounsbury:
Listen, Lounsbury, you’re not the only one with several close family members on the autism specturm. I cannot connect the behavior of even the most profoundly autistic with your use of the word. They are loving, have unique strengths, and struggle to thrive in the neurotypical world. Your use of the term autism as a slur irritates the hell out me and I don’t understand what behavior your are talking about.
People have expressed exasperation with your style of writing and communicating, plus a perceived lack of self-esteem that causes you to talk down to other people who are also highly educated. I erred in believing that your really wanted to better understand one another.
And accusing me of preachiness. That is rich! You have it down to a such a habit I doubt that you are even aware of it.
But I am curious about one thing you said:
You seem to side with those who support Trump. Why, if you are sad to see Trump again on the world stage?
And you criticize those who didn’t support him and say we needed to be shocked. What do you think we will do differently?
And by the way, his re-election is not a shock. I have told my non-US friends for months that I thought Trump would be elected. With my US friends who are worn out by Trump’s negative influence and scared of another term, I try to be supportive without lying about the future he will create. Never forget we have lived with his crap for nearly a decade and stand the most to lose.
Also, I did think your response was angry. Re-reading, I can see that I may have misjudged the tone. My apologies.
I believe your are a wise, educated person who contributes to the world. Please be nicer.