Saturday’s Forum
Steven L. Taylor
·
Saturday, November 23, 2024
·
63 comments
OTB relies on its readers to support it. Please consider helping by becoming a monthly contributor through Patreon or making a one-time contribution via PayPal. Thanks for your consideration.
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored
A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog).
Follow Steven on
Twitter and/or
BlueSky.
********************@
Did I sleep through Saturday?
Rebecca Watson on the felon’s appointments.
“Trump’s (sic) appointments are always exactly what a 6-year old would do: family, friends, people who will help him, and people he’s seen on TV.”
@Bobert:
No, we went through a time warp.
I’m home again. After a 15 day trip with visits to 10 cities. That doesn’t include airports.
Over those 15 days I did things I have never done before
Hire an Uber driver
Eat Taco Bell
Make a connection at Atlanta Airport
Have coffee at Starbucks
Oh and autograph a couple hundred books and meet some of my fans
It was a good trip- my nephew helped me greatly and I had no health concerns while away- but am I glad to be home,
I made up my mind on what next book will be- a space opera. There is a certain sector of space that is supposedly cursed but there is this freighter captain in a hurry. ‘Some ships have come out of there alright.’ Yes there have but those ships and their crews all had something in common.
So what will happen to my captain and his ship? That’s for my readers to find out. I already have over 10,000 words written. My British Virgin Islands set story is on the shelf till after I make a visit there sometime next year. Tom is nearly through with his work on the WW II book we’re co-writing.
Dear Wife is happy I’m home and in one piece. I’m happy about those things too.
@Bobert:
Yeah, I’m groggy, but I’m fairly certain today is Saturday and my phone agrees.
This past week or so I usually wake up at about 2:30 AM groggy af, stay awake for a few hours, then crash again for three or four hours. It’s annoying!
I’d prefer to sleep uninterrupted for a full eight hours, but my body seems unwilling. I kept/willed myself awake until 11 PM hoping for a better outcome and woke up at four. I’ll crash for two or three hours later.
I hate it. The bifurcated sleep. Dear Odin, just 8 hours of uninterrupted sleep, please!
Yeah, headline is wrong. I’m 99% sure it’s Saturday morning.
I’m not entirely unsure whether or not the whole Gaetz for Attorney General was Trump being Trump, or a 11th dimensional chess move by a pretty genius Wormtongue to get Gaetz out of the House. Either by spite, or to somewhat dodge the Ethics Committee findings report on Gaetz.
I’m thinking spite and animus. But that would require quite savvy calculus most Republicans just don’t have. The office holders, at least.
@Bill Jempty:
You got off okay.
Ubers are just gypsy taxis.
Taco Bell serves fillers instead of actual meat. It’s a stealth vegetarian fast food restaurant.
Atlanta is no more worse than the rest. I’ve had bad outcomes at MSP, Cincy, O’Hare, SFO, etc. It’s air travel – it sucks. Get used to it, because they’re all alike. Like airlines. They all suck.
Starbucks serves coffee. Don’t get the dark roast as it is basically burnt and nasty. Light or medium roast is fine, works in a pinch, anyway. It’s adequate and overpriced commercial coffee. It’s the McDonald’s of coffee.
Do you live in Hooterville?
@Bobert: Legit made me question my sanity for a moment.
One of the best feelings in the world comes when you wake up thinking it’s Friday, but turns out to be Saturday. The realization is like a wave of relief and joy.
One of the worst is thinking it’s Saturday when it’s actually Sunday. I suppose it being Monday would be worse, but mixing up on-consecutive days is rather rare.
In the interregnum of actual sleep, in my bifurcated schedule, I try to keep my brain activity low. No TV, no video. Mostly I stand in my kitchen and play solitaire with actual, physical cards on the counter and listen to Americana type music or classical. Word seek puzzle books are a god-send to elderly folk looking to kill time at 3 AM. This morning was Joe Henry and Marin Marais.
Try not to get overly stimulated during the sleep pause.
You know you’re provisionally awake temporarily. Eventually I’ll lay down and stare at the wall for awhile. Hopefully I’ll nod off. If not, big nap this afternoon.
@Kathy:
I’m retired. Days of the week shouldn’t matter, but my brain keeps track of that anyway unprovoked. But, I couldn’t tell you the day of the month if you paid me.
Downstairs in my building is a popular speakeasy type cocktail bar. I can judge the night of the week by the foot traffic. Also, by vehicle traffic on the streets. I have a nicotine habit that puts me through the lobby and on the sidewalk about 14 times a day. By that, I see more than most.
I’m sure this is fine.
snip
Ah, so the middle-aged lady is the house mom. Got it.
RIP
@de stijl:
I live in Palm Beach County Florida. Arnold the Pig isn’t my neighbor.
I’ve been to 17 countries and all 50 states. From 1996 to 2002, I flew approximately 400,000 miles by air and was a Platinum FF. All my traveling on this trip was in FC. I am a spoiled flyer.
And I am very acquainted with lots of airports from ranging from DTW and PBI to TAC and CEB. If you can name the last two without performing a internet search you get a cookie.
From 2003 to 2023 I didn’t journey outside of Florida once. Now I am traveling again. Next year I will be doing two more book signing tours and some traveling related to my book writing. DW wants us to go to Rome also. All health permitting of course
@de stijl: My sleep doctor reported that your experience is not uncommon for people over 60. Moreover, some social historians report that it was common in the middle aged. What I find helps some is going to bed after 1 am. Then I sleep until about 7:30 or 8.
@Matt: I never question my sanity. It stopped answering my questions long ago.
@just nutha:
I’m retired and basically have zero commitments day to day. I can choose whatever sleep schedule I want. It doesn’t matter. Fundamentally.
I just want to sleep eight hours uninterrupted. I follow societal norms for sleeping, mostly, because I want the store to be open when I’m normally awake.
I strongly prefer not to have a vampire schedule. It’s inefficient as to getting things done.
@Bill Jempty:
Why, ain’t you fancy! All fifty states! And 17 countries, too! That is impressive. I’m clapping. You’re impressive. You’re better than most.
Stop flexing. Stop being an asshole. Oooh! I’m on a book tour my publishing company made me go on. How gauche! How do the plebes comport themselves in such a off-putting environment?
Taxis? Coffee from a store? Going through a fucking airport? Everyday annoyances. Cope.
Seriously, fuck off with that.
@de stijl:
That was uncalled for.
Are we to be honest about our lives in this forum? Or are we to condescend so as to not appear too lucky? I faced this issue when I went from family loser, to family winner. How do you deal with people with whom you used to share similar economic challenges, when you no longer face those same challenges.
My choice was honesty. I did not think people less well-off would appreciate me pretending so as to not bruise feelings. Shall I pretend I still drive an old beater? Should I pretend to be struggling with my mortgage? Just how dishonest should I be?
We need a clearer definition. I’ve been to Idaho. I drove through on the interstate and might’ve stopped at a gas station or rest stop to pee.
I really haven’t been to Idaho. I drove through. Might have pee’ed there. Been in it, but very briefly. Transiting through.
In order to claim you’ve “been to” Maine or New Mexico or Kansas or wherever you’d had have to have stayed at least two nights and gone to at least three establishments excluding a gas station. Talked to locals who aren’t store clerks or wait staff. Had dinner. Pooped. Slept. Got breakfast not from a fast food joint.
@Michael Reynolds:
Yesterday people were talking Toyotas here. I own and drive a 2005 Toyota Matrix with 60,000 miles on it bigshot author some people think I am.
I came out of Chapter 7 bankruptcy less than two months before I began selling books at Amazon.
Been all over the world and the United States. Been all over life, good and bad.
@de stijl:
I lose track of dates on vacation sometimes. Once in Vegas I couldn’t understand why there were so many people around, especially downtown, until I realized it was Saturday.
@de stijl: Geebus, that was uncalled for.
@Michael Reynolds:
I don’t know. I think I might stand behind it.
There’s the I’ve never been in an Uber, or a a Taco Bell, or a Starbucks. Or the Atlanta airport.
And then the outright flex.
Humble brag then flex ain’t my thing.
About 3 weeks out, and, predictably, no one is being held accountable for kneecapping old but diminished Biden. The only Dem candidate to beat Donald Trump. Instead of coalesing around their diminished but competent candidate–the way Republicans coalesced around a diminished, incompetent narcissist. They traded away their only ticket to victory for the sizzle od a vigorous Campaign.
Oh, but we should have re-opened the primary process you say? Silly White Liberals–Lol– you really think you can ash can the 1st Black female candidate of a Party that consumes the volunteer labor of hundreds of thousands of Black volunteers. Joe Biden WAS the Democratic coalition unity candidate.
Trump winning 53% of White women was entirely predictable. Remember when I told you Black Women and White Women are RIVALS. They could agree on voting for Biden–not on Harris, Newsome, Whitmer, or anyone else.
I must admit I am secretly enjoying Liberal tears–instead of boldly uniting as a House divided, they chose fractionalism–fanned by corporate media overlords masquerading as moderate Democrat-leaning outlets.
Yall gon learn to stick together now–the hard way
@de stijl:
You’re seriously not paying attention or reading. How many times in the years I been posting here I have made fun of myself or the things I’m doing? I have three words for you- Dung beetle book
I was doing the same thing this morning.
@Bill Jempty: FWIW, I’ve found your exploits interesting, and am happy you post here.
@de stijl:
I didn’t see any of that as a brag or a flex. The man has not been in an Uber. Lots of people have never been in an Uber. Lots of people don’t eat Taco Bell. A few people have even avoided Hartsfield. I will admit to being surprised about Starbucks, but I don’t see that as a flex.
Do you have any idea how fucking rare it is to make a living self-publishing? Do you know the kind of drive and self-discipline that demands? He’s been successful in a very tough environment. That’s admirable. He’s pleased and wants to express that fact.
@Bill Jempty:
Rome, by all means yes. It’s a furnace in the summer so vist in May or September, and if you guys want to see a major venue like the Vatican Museum or the Colosseum be sure to see if you need to book admission tickets on line (18 months ago we visited, and for the Vatican Museo it was necessary)
A wishing you well.
@Jim Brown 32:
Biden’s internal polling showed him being wiped out. He was utterly incapable of campaigning. There was zero chance of him winning. Kamala was the best bet. She lost by 1.6% of the popular vote.
Biden should have quit after one term and allowed Democrats to choose another candidate who may or may not have been Kamala. It is fantasy to imagine Biden would have beaten Trump.
@Kathy:
On Sunday nights I love to take walks. If you go out fairly late on Sunday night, all of downtown is basically dead.
No other pedestrians, no cars. It’s so empty. Yes, I know other folks are around in all the buildings, and cars will be back tomorrow, but now at 2 AM a stroll around downtown puts me in the head space of 28 Days Later.
Spooky, but good. Empty isn’t bad. It’s kind of exhilarating. Utterly, beautifully, sublimely empty. My downtown has gorgeously spooky alleys.
@al Ameda:
Best time to visit Rome is January/February IMO. It’s dry and sunny, temps of 50-60 degrees, and very few tourists. It gets rainier in early spring and you don’t want to be there in December because of the Christmas crowds.
It is also evident that Democrats do not understand human psychology and influence operations. Most people are indeed simpletons. What is a Fascist to a simpleton? What, even, is Democracy? Democracy vs Inflation on the ballot is a easy choice to a simpleton. Daily life challenges always Trump idealistic concepts in Simple Town. Fuel prices vs Rule of Law? You kidding me? A fish will bite a worm over eggs benedict every. single. day.
Now the most important takeway. You can hook a simpleton with any message as long as it appeals to tribal vanity, security, threats, livelihood, and sentimentality. But like fish, the bait HAS to get down to where the fish live. This is a logistics problem, easily solved if one is aware. Democrats reinventing their messaging is a complete waste of time.
They have no delivery mechanism to get their bait down to the depths where the fish live, to the grass beds and under rocks. What do you think the Trump rallies were for?
Does anyone think Simple Town’s construction sites, Bars Churches, Hotel Lobbys, Billboards, etc are brimming with rich discussion of rule of law, fascism, democracy?
Not only is the answer no–but those conceptual messages and discussion never even make it to Simple Town to be rejected. Which would be a 70% win if they did make it…and were rejected.
Remember, a good portion of Trump’s test messaging falls flat in Simple Town–but he gets real time feedback to modify and invent of the fly. When the fish aren’t biting he switches bait.
@de stijl:
That was a really unnecessary attack on Bill. I had no sense he was humble bragging. He’s come through some very rough times–worse than a lot of us have.
I met a guy one time while we were both waiting at the local Midas repair shop who proudly told me that he made sure that his family, wife and two daughters, visited every State Capitol in the lower 48 on summer vacations before the girls graduated from High School. I didn’t think he was boasting. I was impressed.
I am glad to say that I finally made it to Washington DC on one of my road trips. It was after Trump had been elected and before he took office so President Obama was still Commander in Chief. Saw the Washington Monument and some other landmarks. I did not know my way around and had been drinking coffee. Couldn’t find a place to park let alone take a leak so I had to drive back over to Virginia and found a Quickie Mart. I have searched and searched but I guess that I lost what pictures I took while I was in our nations Capitol.
My dad made sure that my siblings and I made it to Riverview Amusement Park in Chicago before it closed and we visited Midway Airport in the Windy City when it was still the busiest airport in the world.
Been there, done that!
@Jim Brown 32: It seems to me that social media was far more important, at least in the late stages, than the rallies. I mean, talk about getting down to the depths: micro-targeted ads, meant to depress turnout.
I really don’t want to relitigate the Biden withdrawal. I wasn’t thrilled with the prospect, but it happened anyway. The polls got a boost. Then white women in swing states broke for Harris less than they did for either Biden or Hillary. Which seems to confirm your primary point.
But the poll behavior was really strange. A big surge when Biden dropped out, and then stable until the last two weeks. What was that? It couldn’t be inflation, even now we have lots of people saying, “Oh the economy is fine, inflation is fine”, even though nothing has changed.
The best I’ve got is that social media false flag operation, meant to depress turnout. It’s easier to scare people than to unscare them.
Then you have the Muslim American orgs in Michigan saying, “we got played”. By Trump? Whodathunk?
@de stijl:..Got breakfast not from a fast food joint.
Between work and leisure travel there are about 15 States I have yet to visit.
Now I find out that I have not been anywhere.
@Michael Reynolds:
I’m not even sure it’s that. Bill shares lots of terrible stuff too. Bill likes to share, and some people like the random stories and details (for me it’s hit or miss, depending on my mood).
@de stijl: Who pissed in your Wheaties? Seriously, that came entirely out of left field and seems out of character. Either that came off way harsher than intended, or something is going on, or you just really hate Bill and it finally just burst out. You seem like good folk — a little odd, but good. If something’s going on, I hope it settles down. You don’t need shit going on.
@Jay L Gischer:
The big bump in the polls was basically up to where Biden was polling before the bad debate. It’s really amazing how consistent the polling was. The only thing that moved it was 10,000 stories of “is Biden too old?”
I think if Biden addressed the age issue — with a few days, have an interview and say “I was tired, the cold medicine kicked in badly, but the reaction from everyone was so severe that I went to the doctor just to be sure. Doctor says I’m fine, here are the records” — polls would have bounced back, and it might have changed how different groups broke in the end.
I think Biden would have won. Just a guess based on how much this country hates women, Black folk, and Black women.
@Gustopher: I think Biden was dead in the water after the debate. It was ingrained in people’s memory, and there had already been a fair amount of “Biden is too old ” chatter. I don’t think he ever would have recovered. And I don’t think he would have done well in a second debate. He wasn’t bad in the first debate, he was Horrible. Towards the end he made it all the way up to bad. And the bad press would never have stopped.
All I can say is…yuck.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/22/matt-gaetz-cameo-fan-videos
@just nutha: A note on my own situation this morning. I just woke up about half an hour ago from falling back to sleep about half an hour or after having posted the linked to comment. So, I woke up at about 6:30 (3:30 PST) stayed awake ~3-4 hours, and slept roughly 3 more.
Compounding the issue, living in PDX, is that the town is closed until 7 am. When I lived in Longview, by 4:30 or 5 am, I could at least go out to breakfast. 7 am here–just as I’m dozing off again.
@de stijl: Not mine either, but I kept my silence during the endless stories of living in abandoned buildings and collecting rainwater to flush the toilet with (or something similar) followed by the transition to successful data cruncher traveling here and there for short term jobs and retiring early (IIRC) have passed the need to work anymore.
He had a really bad rough spot (nearly died, lost a house, had been fairly well off in the past) and now life is closer again to what it was. Just shake your head and be happy for him, like we did for you mostly.
@Jim Brown 32:
I happen to believe the same thing, though maybe for different reasons and haven’t voted for either party’s candidate since 1976. Still, I know it’s an article of belief rather than a fact. You seem not to.
@Bobert:
Depends on what Saturday you’re referring to.
@Gustopher:
Could Biden have gotten 50,000-100,000 more swing state votes than Harris just by being a white man? Yes, I think he would have won. But a younger white man that might’ve emerged from a Democratic primary might have gotten 500,000 more swing state votes.
Or maybe not. For 40 years, the center-left has proved unable to get its self-defeating, lackadaisical coalition to show up for its non-incumbent candidates, unless there’s rightwing economic mismanagement to run against. Clinton, Obama, and Biden all won against the Republican incumbent’s recession.
It’s water under the bridge. Democrats should be focused now on contrasting their ideas and record with the extremist conservative failure yet to come.
Trump Republicans are using trans panic and antiwoke identity politics to distract from their how their unqualified, MAGAffirmative Action hires will crash the economy and assault healthcare with Project 2025 fascism.
Biden-Harris and Democrats lowered the cost of RX drugs, capped insulin costs, brought broadband to rural America, passed the infrastructure and manufacturing bills that created record jobs and record stocks.
Liberals should say so and stop being bullied into running from their own achievements.
@Jim Brown 32:
If you really believe this schtick you’re peddling, you should be working with your local Democrats on turning your area blue.
Lot of “it’s obvious what to do,” little action on implementation. Is it all talk, or is there some substance to go with the line?
@Michael Reynolds: Ladies and Gentlemen–the blindness that got Dems beat. You believe that planted story about internal polling? Lololololololol
You think Trump wins White women by 53% over Biden? Again–Lololololololol
You think what Trump did was Campaigning?
This is Humans do themselves to not face the reality of their bad decisions making and duck self examination–they invent a version of “Lost Cause”. No one is responsible when it was always doomed from the start right?
No one can change the fact that Joe Biden BEAT Donald Trump. Millions of Primary votes signaled their desire to vote for him again. Then, George Clooney decided he had a different preference. Lololololol
Of course, the white liberal Lost Cause hypnosis leads them to believe that they could simply trot out any candidate and inherit the Biden coalition. The same hubris they showed when they thought HRC would be gifted the Obama coalition. A candidate has to do outreach for several YEARS. Which of the White Lib champion candidates have put in this work? If one waits to a primary run to start–its too late. Who started in 2022? Who’s starting Now?
Reality hurts but it allows healthy and relevant change if faced.
@Mister Bluster: I can play too! I’ve been to 7 states and 3 total foreign countries, one of which I lived 8 years in. But I don’t travel much. My ex-wife and I traveled some, but my parents never had the resources and I didn’t have the health to permit much travel until I was in my 40s.
@Jay L Gischer: The Rallys provide a layer of reinforcement–which is key to sustaining an influence operation. The more layers, the more crystallized you can make people’s opinion–to the extent they will vote for an incompetent criminal over an accomplished prosecutor.
Pro Tip: If you are familiar with Russian influence operation theory–you will understand what has happened to this Country. There will be no buyers remorse in Simple Town. In 2028, they will believe Trump accomplished everything he said he would in spite of treasonous Democrats. The multilayered machine will make it perceived as so. Democrats will continue to be perplexed and hand wring–instead of building a reprogramming machine that undermines the current one.
Do you think there’s enough buyers remorse in Russia about Ukraine? In Russian Simple Town they are doing God’s work and opposed by evil America and the West. Hell bent on continuing the subjugation and humiliation of Great Russia.
Relitigation is the key to effectively reloading. Without it, one would load the wrong shells and aim at the wrong targets. The RW in this country has effectively created a hall of mirrors.
@just nutha: Thats not how politics works. There are any number of people with my expertise that could, say, help Democrats perform better in Florida. You don’t just break into the consultancy cabal of the Party by going to the local Dem office. It’s an incestuous business dominated by Washington insiders and detached from results. Kinda like the NFL coaching caste–the same losing coaches get recycled for years wrecking team after team.
@Jim Brown 32:
This sounds pretty interesting to me. How do I learn more about Russian influence operation theory? Is there anything about it in public domain?
@just nutha:..I can play too!
The more the merrier!
And thanks for jogging my memory. I visited Quebec City in the summer of 1970 (likely the closest that I’ll ever get to France) and Ensenada, Baja California for a day trip in 1974.
Funny dig at Xlon Takes about one minute.
just nutha:
I count 7 US states, 19 Mexican ones, and five countries. This includes states I only drove through or caught a connection at. One is limited to having set a single foot on it, but to me this counts.
@Bobert:
I tried my best.
Storm Bert has arrived, and so its wind and pouring rain all day.
Otoh, temperatures are back up to 15 after four days of snow, freezing nights, and not over 4 during the day.
British winter is here.
@JohnSF:
By 4 degrees I hope you mean Centigrade.
@Jim Brown 32: So no. Got it!
@CSK:
Indeed.
We use the sensible scale. 😉
0 = freezing point.
100 = boiling point
Though I’m actually old enough to recall when Fahrenheit was the norm, and still inclined to convert C to F in my head re warm to hot weather.
For the younger folks here, talk about “degrees of frost below 32” induces looks of utter puzzlement.
@JohnSF:
I wonder if Anders Celsius’ notion that 0 should indicate the boiling point and 100 the freezing point had been adopted, whether his scale would have been as successful.
@Jim Brown 32:
Politics isn’t sports. The fact that Team A previously Beat Team B is irrelevant. Biden is senile. That fact wasn’t going away. Biden was never going to turn people out. That’s just the usual Dem one-size-fits-all obsession with race and gender, as if an old White man was an obvious winner and the Black woman never had a chance. We need to start thinking class, not race.
But I am trying to stay clear of the inevitable circular firing squad. I’m not much interested in the fact-free, ex post facto blame game. Not the point. The question is how we go forward.
@Jay L Gischer: Pretty much their entire theory of the case is in the public domain.
@Michael Reynolds: But yet, a senile, demented narcissist who is a serial sexual assaulter turned out the most Black and Latino voters since BushII while also winning a majority of white women–many of whom only voted for him on the ballot–an no one else. But keep thinking senility is a barrier to turnout and election. Lololololololol
How to go forward is the wrong question. The right question–is what does it take to win? Entirely different discussion.
Oh, and politics is exactlya sport with similar principles. Team A, which operates like Politics is a sport has won the SCOTUS, Multiple state legislatures, POTUS, House and Senate. Team B doesn’t think its a sport and will watch as Democracy and Alliances are decimated in service to Trump’s true goal to simply be the richest man in the world. Which team do you think you’re on?