Outside the Beltway

Sunday’s Forum

· Sunday, April 5, 2026 · 6 comments

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. charontwo says:
    Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 06:17

    From Futura Doctrina weekly summary:

    Ukraine is getting around:

    “Mick Ryan”

    Ukraine’s Mediterranean strike operations. The most interesting intelligence story of the week was published on 3 April by French broadcaster RFI. It published an investigation that confirmed Ukraine is conducting a Mediterranean maritime campaign from bases in Libya. One of those operations may have killed a senior Russian intelligence general.

    The RFI investigation, confirmed by Euronews, found that over 200 Ukrainian officers and technical specialists are stationed at three sites in western Libya, operating in coordination with the Tripoli government. The primary infrastructure includes a drone launch facility near the Mellitah Oil and Gas Complex in Zawiya, with direct sea access, and a presence at the Air Force Academy in Misrata. A third site at the headquarters of Libya’s 111th Brigade facilitates coordination between Ukrainian and Libyan military officials. This infrastructure has given Ukraine a drone corridor covering the central and western Mediterranean.

    It might be described as Ukraine’s Mediterranean drone line!

    The 3 March strike that sank the Russian LNG carrier Arctic Metagaz, a sanctioned vessel carrying 62,000 tonnes of LNG to Egypt, was confirmed as a Ukrainian operation using a Magura V5 naval drone. The vessel caught fire and sank in international waters southeast of Malta.

    RFI also reported that the December 2025 strike on the shadow fleet tanker Qendil, the first-ever Ukrainian drone attack on a Mediterranean vessel, may also have killed GRU General Andrey Averyanov. Averyanov is widely linked by Western investigators to the Vrbětice ammunition depot explosions in Czechia, as well as other assassination and sabotage operations across Europe. Reporting cited by Nashaniva indicates that around ten senior Russian intelligence officers were aboard the Qendil, travelling disguised as crew. The strike resulted in two deaths and seven injuries. Moscow has not commented officially.

    The strategic dimension of Ukraine’s Mediterranean campaign extends well beyond attacking Russian ships. Russia’s shadow fleet, which is estimated at over 3,000 vessels, is the primary mechanism for Moscow to circumvent Western energy sanctions and keep oil revenues flowing to finance its war against Ukraine. While this strike campaign occurs, Ukraine has concurrently been developing next-generation open-ocean naval drones under an agreement with the United Kingdom, encompassing joint production, R&D, and an AI Centre of Excellence in Kyiv. The trajectory of the Mediterranean strike campaign appears to be taking the lessons of Ukraine’s Black Sea naval drone campaign and transforming it into a wider, potentially globe-spanning, maritime interdiction capability.

    I wonder who is feeding Ukraine intelligence where these Russian ships are located?

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  2. Jen says:
    Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 08:08

    Good morning, and Happy Easter to those who celebrate.

    Our 15+ year-old dog has chosen today to stop eating. We’ve known for a while that the end was approaching, but it’s still so very hard. Adding to this situation? We’re supposed to head out of town later this week for a wedding. Sigh. We can’t leave the dog sitter with an end-of-life dog, so we’ll be saying goodbye sometime early in the week. It’s never easy but she is sending us all kinds of signals that she’s done.

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  3. Jon says:
    Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 08:31

    @Jen: I’m so sorry! They’re family, and it sucks losing family. May her memory be a blessing.

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  4. Jax says:
    Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 08:52

    @Jen: So sorry to hear this! They don’t live long enough, in my view. Big hugs.

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  5. CSK says:
    Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 09:27

    @Jen:

    So, so sorry.

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  6. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:
    Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 10:01

    My old momcat was 17 when I had to put her down. It was one of the hardest things that I’ve ever had to do. That was more than 30 years ago. Her picture is still on my refrigerator door.

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