Republicans Face Health Care Blowback At Town Halls

Republicans are finding that their constituents aren’t very happy about the passage of the American Health Care Act.

Macron and Le Pen Advance To Runoff In French Presidential Election

French voters face a stark choice in the May 7th runoff for President. Hopefully, they’ll make the correct choice.

Jim Comey’s Dilemma

The FBI Director faced a damned if you do, damned if you don’t choice.

A Final Look At The Polls

With just one day to go, Clinton’s paths to victory continue to look far more realistic than Donald Trump’s.

Meh Hillary

It has become necessary to destroy the party in order to save it.

Polls, Polls, Polls.

Looking beyond FiveThirtyEight

Electoral College Wargames And Paths To Victory

A look at the Electoral College shows that It is far more likely that Hillary Clinton will win the election than that Donald Trump will.

With One Week To Go, The Presidential Race Tightens But Clinton Still Has The Advantage

Seven days from now, millions of Americans will be headed to the polls. So far at least, Hillary Clinton is still the front runner.

Some Poll Observations

Some musings on the RCP average and such.

It’s Two Weeks Until Election Day, And Things Are Looking Very Good For Hillary Clinton

Two weeks before Election Day, everything seems to be going Hillary Clinton’s way.

With Three Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Momentum Appears To Be Surging

With twenty-one days to go until Election Day, things are looking very good for Hillary Clinton.

Second Debate Unlikely To Halt Clinton’s Momentum

Last night’s debate was indeed the low point everyone anticipated it would be, but it seems unlikely to change the status quo.

Clinton Keeps Pulling Ahead Heading Into Second Presidential Debate

As we head into the second Presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looks to be in very good shape.

With Five Weeks To Go, Clinton Appears To Have Momentum

With five weeks to go, the momentum in the race is moving decidedly in Hillary Clinton’s favor.

Democratic Hopes Of Winning Back The Senate Seem To Be Slipping Away

Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate aren’t going so well at the moment.

Presidential Race Remains Tight Heading Into First Debate

With just hours before the first debate, and six weeks until Election Day, the race for President remains tight.

Presidential Race Continues To Tighten With Seven Weeks To Go

With just forty-nine days left in the campaign, and less than a week before the first debate, the race for President is tighter than ever.

With Eight Weeks To Go, A Tighter Race But It’s Still Advantage Clinton

The election is now fifty-six days away and, while the race is tighter than it has been, it’s still one in which Hillary Clinton has seemingly all the advantages.

With Nine Weeks To Go, Clinton’s Post-Convention Bounce Seems To Have Disappeared

It’s the traditional start of the campaign season, and the race for President is getting close, at least at the national level.

Ten Weeks Out: The Presidential Race Tightens A Bit, But Clinton Still Leads

With ten weeks to go ,there’s been some tightening in the polls but Hillary Clinton continues to maintain a commanding lead in the race for the White House.

Wisconsin Unlikely To Go Republican In 2016

Republican hopes that Wisconsin might go Republican this year seem to be slipping away.

Could Crazy Donald Trump Actually Win The Presidency?

While a Clinton landslide seems obvious after the dumpster fire of a Republican convention, the race is close.

An All-Around Bad Jobs Report For May

The May Jobs Report was bad all-around. The question is whether this will come to be seen as an anomaly or the beginning of a worrisome trend.

Trump the Presumptive Nominee (Some of What I got Wrong)

In case anyone noticed: I got the Trump nomination wrong.

Yes, The Trump/Clinton Polls Are Tightening. No, It Doesn’t Mean Much Of Anything

Several recent polls have shown the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tightening, but it likely means far less than the media hype makes it sound like.

A Reminder About Polling

As we begin to head into General Election season, a few things to remember about the avalanche of polls to come.

Nevada Hoping To Avoid Another Chaotic Caucus

Tonight’s Nevada Caucuses could be as chaotic as the floor of a Vegas casino, but Donald Trump seems to be in position to score another win.

Marco Rubio Becomes The Main Target At Eighth Republican Debate

Marco Rubio was the man in the cross hairs in last night’s Republican debate.

Cruz And Rubio Clash, Everyone But Cruz Clashes With Trump, In Fifth Republican Debate

The Fifth Republican Debate, and the last of 2015, was marked by expected clashes between the candidates, and one that never happened.

Donald Trump Continues To Hold Commanding Lead In New Hampshire

Donald Trump continues to have a commanding lead in the Granite State, but it’s unclear whether he can translate poll support into votes when the primary rolls around.

Trump Has Massive Lead In New CNN Poll

Donald Trump just keeps leading in the polls, and Republicans keep arguing that it can’t last.

Chris Christie Grabs Endorsement Of New Hampshire Union Leader, But Will It Matter?

Chris Christie has gotten the endorsement of the biggest newspaper in New Hampshire, but it’s not clear that this will have any impact on the race.

Yes, Trump is the Frontrunner, but…

Polls are quite useful in the right circumstances, but knowledge, complexity, and timing all have to be taken into account in determining what they are telling us.

Republican Establishment Relying On Voters To Take Out Trump, And They Have No ‘Plan B’

The GOP “establishment” isn’t planning to take on Donald Trump directly and instead relying on Republican primary voters to come to their senses. They may be waiting for something that will never happen.

Nate Silver Wants Us To All Chill Out When It Comes To Donald Trump’s Poll Numbers

Nate Silver reminds us all that, even when it comes to Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s much earlier than we think, and that voters are still likely to change their minds.

Donald Trump Fails To Make Saturday Night Live Great Again

Donald Trump was on Saturday Night Live last night. It wasn’t even remotely funny.

ESPN Shutters Grantland, Continuing Recent Trend

To the surprise of few, Bill Simmons’ site didn’t long survive his departure.

Trump Leads In Iowa, While Walker Declines

Donald Trump is leading in Iowa, and very few things make sense anymore.

Is 2016 a 50-50 Proposition?

Pundits and political scientists agree that, if the 2016 presidential election were today, we’d have a much better idea who would win.

Placing Jeb in Ideological Context

Also: charting the rightward shift in the GOP.

What Happened In Virginia?

Trying to explain one of the biggest surprises of Election Night 2014.

What to Make of the 2014 Wave Election

What happened Tuesday? And what does it tell us about 2016?

Many Of The 2014 Polls Were Wrong, Which Is Why We Should Be Skeptical Of Individual Polls

The results of the 2014 midterms should teach us some lessons about how to handle and evaluate polling.

What If Republicans Don’t Win Control Of The Senate?

The odds say that the GOP will end up with a Senate majority in the 114th Congress when all the votes are counted, but if it doesn’t happen then there’s likely to be quite a battle inside the GOP.

With One Week To Go, The Midterms Are Looking Good For the GOP

Things are looking good for the GOP to take over the Senate, but there are still several right races that could tip the balance one way or the other.

The Level of Dumb is Astounding (Huckabee on Borders and Ebola Edition)

Illogic and fear from Mr. Huckabee.

A Cautionary Note About Polling Between Now And Election Day

Individual polls are likely to be volatile, so don’t pay too much attention to them.

A Surprise Brewing In South Dakota’s Senate Race?

Is former Senator Larry Pressler surging in his Independent bid to win back his old Senate seat?

About That Poll Showing Alison Lundergan Grimes Leading Mitch McConnell

Could Alison Lundergran Grimes be surging? Maybe, but we’ll need more evidence to be sure.